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us stock market, stock split
Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Good moves: GG; NBIX; PENN; VRNT; AIG; SINA
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers.
NEW PLAYS: Splitting stocks are often market leaders and thus we do not just focus on them at points where they are expected to announce or before they actually split. They provide many opportunities to invest in them and this section is where we can look at some former split stocks and other stocks that are in good position to make us money. In addition, there are emerging trends in the recent move off of the double bottom, and we want to capture those stocks emerging from the obscurity as well.
Upside:
ASKJ (Ask Jeeves--$2.59; -0.03; no options): Business software and web help
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/askj.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Moving through a year-long base, during the recent selling ASKJ has been moving above the 18 day MVA (2.51) as it forms its handle with resistance right at 2.80. Accumulation in the base is outstanding at 8 accumulation weeks to 1 distribution week. Super accumulation as internet stocks continue to look solid even during this pullback. Volume has really ratcheted up; there is a lot of interest. Looking for the breakout.
Volume: 54.963K Avg Volume: 202.454K
BUY POINT: $2.89 Volume=305K Target=$3.88 Stop=$2.44
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/askj.html
VOXX (Audiovox--$10.85; -0.03; optionable): Wholesale electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/voxx.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. VOXX exploded off the bottom of a long base in November, rallying up to the next resistance at 11. For the past three weeks it has moved laterally, consolidating the gains as it works along the 18 day MVA (10.67). Accumulation since is formed and broke out of its most recent base is excellent at 8 up weeks on rising volume to just 2 down weeks on rising volume. Money flow is outstanding. Another stock that is working on a handle to a bigger base as the rest of the market struggles. We can sit back and let it breakout for us.
Volume: 94K Avg Volume: 87.409K
BUY POINT: $11.35 Volume=131K Target=$13.75 Stop=$10.56
POSITION: UXX DB - April $10c (68 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/voxx.html
New Post-Split
FIC (Fair Isaac & Co.--$42.3; +1.35; optionable): Management services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fic.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. FIC is a frequent splitter and provides great moves when it makes its breakouts. In 2001 it made us a lot of money, but then it needed to consolidate and form a longer base to make its next move. This current 9-month double bottom with handle is a very solid base that is setting up the next move. This has been one of the powerhouses in its sector, and we are looking for a great breakout.
Volume: 212.5K Avg Volume: 365.954K
BUY POINT: $44.51 Volume=575K Target=$48 Stop=$40.55
POSITION: FIC DH - April $40c (74 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fic.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Upside:
Play Date: 11/23/2002
ATRS (Altiris--$13.99; +0.4; no options): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atrs.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Looks super in the base, just aching to make the move. Monday it was up on strong volume, knocking at the breakout. It was back there at the close Thursday. Outstanding accumulation (9 accumulation weeks to 2 distribution weeks). Waiting for the breakout.
Volume: 27.7K Avg Volume: 143.318K
BUY POINT: $14.05 Volume=200K Target=$18 Stop=$19.96
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/atrs.html
Play Date: 11/05/2002
CVD (Covance--$24.5; +0.26; optionable): Business research services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cvd.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. Running up Thursday on some stronger volume, one of the few stocks that held onto a chunk of its gains. CVD has been a leader all through the rally, and it is ready for a new high. Looking for a breakout on some strong volume to return, but then the stock will move up before investors get back to the market. Thus we are looking to add to positions on a move over 24.70.
Volume: 277.5K Avg Volume: 403.409K
BUY POINT: New: 24.70 (orig. $23.65) Volume=581K Target=$28 Stop=$22.25
POSITION: CVD ED - May $20c (68 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cvd.html
Play Date: 12/02/2002
IDXC (IDX Systems--$17.9; +0.27; optionable): Healthcare information software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/idxc.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Crouching for the next big move up as IDXC moves up the 10 day MVA (17.60), working on breaking over resistance at 18. Ready for the breakout to a new 52-week high.
Volume: 125.5K Avg Volume: 143.59K
BUY POINT: New: $18.25 (orig. $17.65) Volume=163K Target=$21.55 Stop=$16.35
POSITION: XQW EC - May $15c (72 delta, no OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/idxc.html
Play Date: 12/21/2002
MRK (Merck & Co.--$56.95; +0.02; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrk.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. Started moving higher Thursday but could not hold the move, closing just below the short term MVA. (18 day MVA at 57.37). It fell back from the high (58.12), but MRK remains in a nice position to move up from here. Still looks solid and a good addition to a portfolio needing some medical stocks.
Volume: 3.54M Avg Volume: 7.471M
BUY POINT: $58.05 Volume=9.5M Target=$67 Stop=$55.94
POSITION: MRK DK - April $55c (69 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mrk.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 12/21/2002
SYK (Stryker--$66.67; -0.04; optionable): Medical supplies and instruments. Forecast to announce a split early 2003. We are still pinpointing a date.
Background: Last announced a 2:1 split in March 2003 at a price of $65.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/syk.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Readying for the breakout but getting cold feet at the moment of truth. SYK showed a doji Thursday right at the breakout. May try to test one more time toward 66 before making the next move. Accumulation during the consolidation is solid at 3 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume.
Volume: 349.2K Avg Volume: 813.545K
BUY POINT: $67.53 Volume=1.2M Target=$77.62 Stop=$62.84
POSITION: SYK FM - June $65c (70 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/syk.html
Play Date: 10/28/2002
WFMI (Whole Foods Market--$53.34; -0.11; optionable): Health food grocery. Forecast to announce a split on 2-12-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the announcement.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 5-10-01 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $50.40. The annual shareholder meeting was on 3-25-02 at which time authorized shares were increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfmi.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still working laterally above the 10 day MVA, showing a hammer doji Thursday right on that level. WFMI is crowding toward the breakout, building pressure from below as it tries to move over 54. Need to see some volume when it does.
Volume: 383.862K Avg Volume: 760.863K
BUY POINT: New: 54.05 (orig. $50.11) Volume=975K Target=Initial $57.51 Stop=$49.94
POSITION: FMQ BI - Feb. $45c (64 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wfmi.html
PRE-SPLIT
Play Date: 12/05/2002
PSUN (Pacific Sunwear--$27.46; +0.31; optionable): Pacific Sunwear. Splits 3:2 on 12-31-02
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/psun.html
STATUS: After the Thursday doji PSUN posted a very modest gain Friday on lower, average volume. Not a bad test, but not what we were looking for after the surge up earlier in the week. Still, it is holding up at the 18 day, and the doji is indicative of a move back up from here. That is what we like to do on these, i.e., pick them up off the tests of support with doji's.
Volume: 967.5K Avg Volume: 980K
BUY POINT: $28.05 Volume=1.5M Target=$33 Stop=$25.95
POSITION: PVQ FE - June $25c (71 delta, low OI) and/or stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/psun.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 11/30/2002
WERN (Werner Enterprises--$21.67; -0.1; optionable): Trucking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wern.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Still in the 11-month base, showing a doji right on the 18 day MVA Thursday. WERN looks really nice in the pattern, working up the 18 day MVA and showed a burst of accumulation recently. Looks ready to move. That volume spike last week was a 'get ready' flag alerting you that the move is coming.
Volume: 221.717K Avg Volume: 371.318K
BUY POINT: $22.75 Volume=550K Target=$27.35 Stop=$21.16
POSITION: QEH ED - May $20c (74 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wern.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
$SOX 12/07 Test 50 300.29 -1.28 335.15 385 0 0 313.94
Current. Holding at support at 300 with a hammer doji.
ACS 12/21 DB hdl 53 +0.31 52.05 60 925K 2.4M 48.41
Current. Doji after a run to 54 on the high. ACS making a strong move, and took a breather.
AIG 12/18 Put 58.3 -0.99 58.55 54 3.7M 7M 60.45
Current. Tried to clear the 10 day MVA and rolled down. Need to break below 58.
ALN 12/07 Test BO 10 0 9.86 11.85 92K 412K 9.17
ALN 11/09 Test BO 10 0 7.28 9.75 92K 200K 8.94
Current. Very nice flat consolidation above the 10 day MVA.
AME 12/05 DB hdl 37.46 -0.32 38.71 46.45 61K 225K 36
Buy Not Hit. Ditto.
AMLN 12/12 A Wedge 17.22 -0.19 18.75 22.75 203K 750K 17.25
Buy Not Hit.
AMZN 11/30 Test BO 20.3 -1.58 22.85 29.65 14M 10M 21.25
Buy Not Hit.
AMZN 10/21 Cup hdl 20.3 -1.58 20.32 24.38 14M 10M 21.75
Current. Reported huge buying on its site and crashed below the 50 day MVA on some heavy volume. Letting it try and recover Friday.
ANT 12/11 Put 24.67 +1.42 22.45 20 126K 200K 23.55
Current. Strong move over the 50 day MVA on continued low volume. Will see if it tests back toward 23 to get a better exit.
ASKJ 12/26 Cup hdl 2.59 -0.03 2.89 3.88 55K 305K 2.44
New.
ATRS 11/23 A Wedge 13.99 +0.4 14.05 18 28K 200K 13.07
Buy Not Hit.
BCGI 12/19 Test 50 13.37 -0.18 13.75 16.55 34K 250K 12.65
Buy Not Issued.
BCGI 10/07 Cup hdl 13.37 -0.18 11.25 14 34K 250K 10.95
BRCM 08/17 CCall 16.05 +0.06 19.2 19.8 4.6M 9M 17.25
Current.
BSTE 12/11 A Wedge 34.99 -0.73 34 41.25 333K 900K 31.62
Current. Testing on low volume.
BSX 10/19 Test BO 43.34 -0.52 37.75 45.75 795K 3.3M 41.94
Current. Testing the 10 day MVA.
BWS 12/17 Cup hdl 25.48 +0.21 26.35 31.65 62K 165K 23.94
Current. Nice doji on the 10 day MVA. Looks ready to move again.
BYS 11/18 Test BO 26.22 +0.21 25.45 30.45 10K 194K 25.05
Current.
COLM 11/13 DB hdl 44.12 +0.01 41.96 48.45 338K 389K 44.25
Current. Testing the 50 day MVA with a nice doji on rising volume. Like this as it holds support at 44.
CPWM 11/02 Cup hdl 29.65 +0.65 30.36 36 285K 471K 29.45
Current. Rallied to test the 18 day MVA on the high but could not hold the whole move.
CVD 12/21 Cup hdl 24.5 +0.26 24.75 29.74 278K 581K 22.88
New. Like the action and will move in with just a bit more volume.
CVD 11/05 Test BO 24.5 +0.26 23.65 28 278K 581K 22.25
Current.
DAKT 12/19 Cup hdl 13.52 -0.43 14.54 17.45 68K 150K 13.52
Buy Not Hit.
ESPD 12/19 Test BO 17.06 -0.74 17.81 21.45 419K 675K 16.11
Buy Not Hit.
ESRX 12/18 Put 48.72 +0.55 47.65 44 973K 1.5M 49.05
Buy Not Hit.
EXEL 12/22 Test BO 7.31 -0.25 8.45 10.25 177K 520K 7.86
Buy not hit.
EXPD 11/09 Cup hdl 33.29 -0.41 32.08 38 512K 750K 32.45
Current. Down to the 18 day MVA on continued below average volume. Needs to hold here.
EXPE 11/30 A Wedge 66.96 -1.44 78.25 88 1.4M 3.2M 72.77
Current. Continues to form its handle, holding the 50 day MVA as it does.
FAST 12/14 Cup hdl 38.33 -0.17 38.55 43 361K 995K 36.45
Current. Nice hammer doji at the 10 day MVA. Holding up very well.
FIC 12/26 DB hdl 42.3 +1.35 44.51 48 212K 575K 40.55
New.
FNF 11/26 Test BO 33.38 +0.28 33.25 38.25 384K 875K 30.92
Buy Not Hit.
FRX 10/29 Test BO 98.65 -1.48 99.55 115 1.1M 3.1M 103
GENZ 11/30 Test BO 31.75 -0.6 35.15 41.94 1.4M 5.2M 31.21
Current. Holding the gap higher as GENZ shows an orderly pullback.
GG 09/19 Cup hdl 13.41 +0.76 11.98 14.45 1.9M 2.4M 10.95
Current. Nice jump off the 10 day MVA.
GTK 10/31 Cup hdl 29.02 +0.22 26.15 30 252K 900K 26.45
Current. Looking very nice in a lateral consolidation that looks like a bullish flying plateau.
HSIC 12/09 Put 45.65 -0.11 44.15 40 189K 667K 46.05
IDXC 12/02 Cup hdl 17.9 +0.27 17.65 21.25 126K 163K 16.85
Current. Looks very good and ready to make the breakout.
IGEN 12/19 Test BO 43.65 -0.53 43.05 49.55 180K 450K 40.04
Current. Lower volume pullback after the move.
IGEN 11/16 DB hdl 43.65 -0.53 38.81 45 180K 300K 40.15
Current.
INFY 12/21 Test BO 73.4 +1.89 76.05 92 111K 165K 71.35
LBIX 10/14 Cup hdl 3.18 +0.15 3.22 4.35 34K 145K 3.32
Current.
LSTR 12/19 A Wedge 57.7 +0.04 56.42 62.42 70K 220K 53.95
Current. Very nice, low volume pullback.
LXK 10/29 Cup hdl 62 -0.64 61 72 718K 2.2M 62.48
Current. Holding at the simple 50 day MVA.
MATK 12/04 Test BO 26.12 +0.27 23.39 27.94 154K 300K 21.85
Current. Took a rest Tuesday and then started up Thursday.
MRK 12/21 Test 50 56.95 +0.02 58.05 67 3.5M 9.5M 55.94
Buy Not Hit. Looks really good.
MRK 12/07 Test BO 56.95 +0.02 59.15 67 3.5M 9.5M 55.94
Current.
MSFT 12/04 Test 18 53.39 -0.43 56.61 62.75 19M 67M 54.45
Current. Unable to hold the move. Needs to make another move up over 55 and hold it.
NBIX 10/08 Rv H&S 49.08 +1.87 44.85 51.75 871K 1.1M 44.05
Current. Very nice move up on volume.
NTAI 12/10 Test BO 25.23 -0.18 24.85 28.75 53K 175K 24.25
Current. Held the 18 day MVA and trying to bounce.
NTII 12/22 Test BO 6.27 +0.02 6.74 8.25 71K 90K 6.18
Buy Not Hit. Holding the 18 day MVA on the close as it continues to test the breakout.
NXTL 11/19 Test BO 12.6 -0.28 13.05 16.15 9.7M 35M 11.35
Current. Still holding up well though it closed below the short term MVA.
NXTL 11/12 Test 50 12.6 -0.28 12.15 16.15 9.7M 4.5M 11.35
Current.
PENN 12/14 Put 15.33 -0.67 16.55 14 385K 300K 17.65
Current. Nice plunge lower.
PIXR 11/20 BO 56.22 -0.73 57.85 66 879K 775K 57.65
Current. Still holding above the 50 day MVA and support at 56. This is where it needs to make its stand.
PNRA 11/07 Cup hdl 36.22 -0.02 34.38 39.75 247K 1.2M 34.12
Current. took a breather after running up over the short term MVA.
PPD 11/14 Test BO 26.93 +0.17 25.51 30.55 386K 450K 26.25
Current. Trying to hold the 18 day.
PSUN 12/05 BO 26.45 +0.25 28.05 33 546K 1.5M 25.95
Current. Held support at 26.
QCOM 12/21 Test 50 38.07 -0.39 39.15 48 7.1M 18M 36.41
Buy Not Hit. Tried to make the move, but it was a wild session. Testing the 50 day MVA on the low and over the short term MVA on the highs.
QCOM 12/04 Test 18 38.07 -0.39 40.85 50 7.1M 18M 37.99
Current.
QCOM 11/07 Test BO 38.07 -0.39 34.78 42 7.1M 18M 38.14
Current.
QLGC 11/07 Test BO 37.27 -0.6 41.4 50 5.2M 25M 39.88
QSII 12/17 Test BO 22.45 +0.23 23.55 28 6.8K 55K 22.35
Buy Not Hit.
RHD 11/30 Cup hdl 28.63 +0.23 30.17 25.94 39K 267K 28.06
Buy Not Hit.
ROST 12/12 Test 50 41.47 +0.22 45.85 52.75 576K 1.6M 42.64
Buy Not Hit.
SCIO 12/03 Cup hdl 33.69 +0.15 33.05 39.65 425K 1.6M 30.74
Buy Not Issued.
SFNT 12/16 Test 50 25.45 -0.45 26.7 32.45 82K 188K 24.25
Current. Holding the 18 day MVA on below average volume.
SINA 12/04 Test BO 7.25 +0.33 5.58 7.21 1.5M 950K 4.97
Current. Rallying higher on volume.
SYK 12/21 Rv H&S 66.67 -0.04 67.53 77.62 349K 1.2M 62.84
Buy Not Hit. Looking solid.
TEVA 11/09 Test BO 36.81 -0.19 36.85 42.51 1.3M 1.8M 37.35
Current. Tried to move over the 50 day MVA but failed. Giving it another session.
TJX 12/21 DB hdl 19.57 +0.37 21.56 25.88 1.4M 425K 19.94
Buy Not Hit.
TSCO 12/07 Test 18 36.96 +1.95 45.44 51.44 372K 475K 42.26
Buy Not Hit.
TSCO 10/16 Test BO 36.96 +1.95 39.05 46.85 372K 235K 42.05
Current. Good move on volume as TSCO held some support and bounced.
UNTD 11/30 Test BO 16.3 -0.29 16.25 19.65 241K 1M 15.11
Current. Holding the 18 day MVA.
UOPX 12/07 Test BO 35.78 +0.28 36.74 42 219K 278K 34.17
Current. Still moving in the nice lateral consolidation.
URBN 12/22 Put 23.21 +0.42 23.36 20.22 255K 500K 24.65
VAR 12/18 Rv H&S 49.15 -0.04 50.25 58 339K 700K 48.05
Current.
VOXX 12/26 Test 18 10.85 -0.03 11.35 13.75 94K 131K 10.56
New.
VRNT 11/23 Cup hdl 21.34 +3.35 15.85 21.55 1.1M 113K 19.94
Current. Super move. Raised the target and the stop.
VSAT 12/17 Test 18 12.28 0 12.26 15.45 107K 320K 11.35
Buy Not Issued. Still working on the breakout.
WERN 11/30 Cup hdl 21.67 -0.1 22.75 27.35 222K 550K 21.16
Buy Not Hit. Looks very solid.
WFMI 12/14 Test BO 53.34 -0.11 53.65 64 384K 975K 51.35
Current.
WFMI 10/28 Cup hdl 53.34 -0.11 50.11 57.51 384K 975K 51.35
Current.
WFR 11/14 Cup hdl 8.05 +0.08 8.45 11 78K 325K 8.12
Current. Holding the 50 day MVA on low volume.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock split
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