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Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Good moves: AIG; AVP; BER; NBIX; SINA
New Plays:
Upside:
ASKJ (Ask Jeeves--$2.59; -0.03; no options): Business software and web help
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/askj.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Moving through a year-long base, during the recent selling ASKJ has been moving above the 18 day MVA (2.51) as it forms its handle with resistance right at 2.80. Accumulation in the base is outstanding at 8 accumulation weeks to 1 distribution week. Super accumulation as internet stocks continue to look solid even during this pullback. Volume has really ratcheted up; there is a lot of interest. Looking for the breakout.
Volume: 54.963K Avg Volume: 202.454K
BUY POINT: $2.89 Volume=305K Target=$3.88 Stop=$2.44
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/askj.html
BORL (Borland Software--$12.95; -0.05; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/borl.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Moving through a short, 7-week base that is part of a bigger 12-month base. Accumulation is solid in the current base at 3 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume. Money flow is Moving up ahead of the stock as it moves laterally and holds the 10 day MVA. It is showing a series of doji's with in a nice, tight trading range. Looking ready to get on board.
Volume: 215.838K Avg Volume: 951.681K
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $13.42. Breakout: over 14. Volume=1.2M Target=$16.45 Stop=$12.48
POSITION: BLQ DV - April $12.50c (76 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/borl.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 12/19/2002
AMTD (Ameritrade--$5.21; -0.02; optionable): Brokerage services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amtd.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Very nice, showing a hammer doji right on the 10 day MVA as AMTD holds up well in the base as the rest of the market sells. Huge money flow that is racing up ahead of the price and relative strength has already broken out ahead of the stock.
Volume: 709.898K Avg Volume: 1.27M
BUY POINT: $5.54 Volume=165K Target=$6.85 Stop=$5.15
POSITION: TQA EA - May $5c (79 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amtd.html
Play Date: 12/16/2002
AVO (Advanced Medical Optics--$12; +0.01; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avo.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Trying to make the breakout, knocking at the door. Volume was up as it hit at the buy point and closed back off that level. Accumulation is positive at 4 accumulation weeks (up price on rising volume) to 3 distribution weeks (down price on rising volume). Close.
Volume: 74K Avg Volume: 137K
BUY POINT: $12.06 Volume=210K Target=$14.45 Stop=$11.22
POSITION: AVO DB - April $10c (72 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/avo.html
Play Date: 11/05/2002
CVD (Covance--$24.5; +0.26; optionable): Business research services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cvd.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. Running up Thursday on some stronger volume, one of the few stocks that held onto a chunk of its gains. CVD has been a leader all through the rally, and it is ready for a new high. Looking for a breakout on some strong volume to return, but then the stock will move up before investors get back to the market. Thus we are looking to add to positions on a move over 24.70.
Volume: 277.5K Avg Volume: 403.409K
BUY POINT: New: 24.70 (orig. $23.65) Volume=581K Target=$28 Stop=$22.25
POSITION: CVD ED - May $20c (68 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cvd.html
Play Date: 12/14/2002
MRCY (Mercury Computer Systems--$32.05; +0.18; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrcy.html
STATUS: Pennant. Volume edged higher Thursday as MRCY yet again pushed at the breakout point. It has moved over that level but has yet to make the definitive move. Looking for that punch higher with continued rising volume. Good accumulation is setting up the move (5 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume).
Volume: 144.987K Avg Volume: 228.772K
BUY POINT: 32.55 (orig. $31.65) Volume=350K Target=$37.85 Stop=$29.43
POSITION: QYR EF - May $30c (63 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mrcy.html
Play Date: 12/21/2002
NSCN (Netscreen Technologies--$17; +0.55; optionable): Security software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nscn.html
STATUS: Pennant. Toying with the breakout Thursday as volume edged up but was hardly what you would call strong. Accumulation since January is positive at 13 accumulation weeks to 11 distribution weeks, very good for this stage in the base when it is just starting to build the right side. Money flow into the stock is huge.
Volume: 362.351K Avg Volume: 1.075M
BUY POINT: $16.69 Volume=1.8M Target=$20.15 Stop=$15.45
POSITION: QKN FC - June $15c (67 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nscn.html
Play Date: 12/07/2002
SAFC (Safeco--$35.86; +0.16; optionable): Property and casualty insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/safc.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Doji right at the breakout point as SAFC continues to build pressure for the breakout. Money flow continues to rise ahead of the stock price with accumulation at 2 weeks to 1 distribution week and getting better. Just waiting for the strong move now.
Volume: 399.186K Avg Volume: 1.028M
BUY POINT: $36.69 Volume=1.5M Target=$41 Stop=$34.12
POSITION: SAQ EF - May $30c (70 delta, low OI) or SAQ EG - May $35c (65 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/safc.html
Play Date: 12/18/2002
TARO (Taro Pharmaceuticals--$38.52; +0.27; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/taro.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume edged higher as TARO continues to work in the handle to the small cup with handle formed this month that is the tail end of the larger handle to the 13-month base that bottomed from May to July. Solid accumulation at 8 up weeks on rising volume to 3 down weeks on rising volume.
Volume: 272.252K Avg Volume: 376.727K
BUY POINT: $39.05 Volume=575K Target=$46.85 Stop=$36.32
POSITION: QTT DG - April $35c (66 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/taro.html
Downside
Play Date: 12/21/2002
JAKK (Jakks Pacific--$13.8; -0.06; optionable): Toys and games
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jakk.html
STATUS: Put. Head and shoulders breakdown. After trying to make a big move Tuesday, JAKK could not hold the move and remains below the 50 day MVA. Looking for a roll back down from here on some rising volume.
Volume: 69.103K Avg Volume: 224.227K
BUY POINT: $13.24 Volume=325K Target=$11 Stop=$14.65
POSITION: UFF OC - Mar. $15p (-58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jakk.html
Play Date: 12/21/2002
URBN (Urban Outfitters--$23.21; +0.42; optionable): Apparel Stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/urbn.html
STATUS: Put. After tanking below the 50 day MVA, URBN is now making a low volume bounce to test the move. This is really where we like to get into plays, after the test. We will watch for URBN to start another down session and that will be our entry point.
Volume: 254.9K Avg Volume: 443.909K
BUY POINT: $23.36 Volume=500K Target=$20.22 Stop=$24.65
POSITION: URQ OE - Mar. $25p (-49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/urbn.html
Play Date: 12/09/2002
PFGC (Performance Food Group--$34.17; +0.46; optionable): Wholesale food
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pfgc.html
STATUS: Put. After pluning below the 50 day MVA PFGC is trying to move back up, but it ran into the 200 day MVA on the high (34.45) and fell back to close right at the 10 day MVA. It may try to make the move once more before it rolls over again. Looking for the roll back down through the buy point for new positions.
Volume: 196.091K Avg Volume: 447.045K
BUY POINT: $33.97 Volume=475K Target=$31.75 Stop=$34.75
POSITION: PGU MG - Jan. $35p (-50 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pfgc.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING:
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
$SOX 12/07 Test 50 300.29 -1.28 335.15 385 0 0 313.94
Current. Holding at support at 300 with a hammer doji.
ADTN 12/10 Test 18 31.9 +0.16 32.05 38.45 333K 800K 30.35
Current. Nice move on some rising volume as ADTN held where it needed to here at the 18 day MVA.
AIG 12/18 Put 58.3 -0.99 58.55 54 3.7M 7M 60.45
Current. Tried to clear the 10 day MVA and rolled down. Need to break below 58.
AMTD 12/19 A Wedge 5.21 -0.02 5.54 6.85 710K 165K 5.15
Buy Not Hit.
ANT 12/11 Put 24.67 +1.42 22.45 20 126K 200K 23.55
Current. Strong move over the 50 day MVA on continued low volume. Will see if it tests back toward 23 to get a better exit.
ASKJ 12/26 Cup hdl 2.59 -0.03 2.89 3.88 55K 305K 2.44
New.
AVID 12/07 Test 18 22.61 +0.04 21 25 201K 500K 19.53
Current. Nice, easy pullback.
AVID 10/30 Cup hdl 22.61 +0.04 15.65 25 201K 177K 19.53
Current.
AVO 12/16 A Wedge 12 +0.01 12.06 14.45 74K 210K 11.22
Buy Not Hit.
AVP 11/25 Cup hdl 54.18 +0.9 52.94 61 976K 1.8M 51.35
Current. Nice volume move up off of the 18 day MVA.
BER 11/13 Cup hdl 39.83 +0.94 38.4 45 211K 306K 38.35
Current. Another nice volume move up off the 18 day MVA.
BOH 10/26 Cup hdl 30.51 -0.09 29.94 36 118K 427K 29.61
Current. Still rising up the 18 day MVA but not making any move.
BORL 12/26 Cup hdl 12.95 -0.05 13.42 16.45 216K 1.2M 12.48
New.
BRCM 08/17 CCall 16.05 +0.06 19.2 19.8 4.6M 9M 17.25
Current.
BSTE 12/11 A Wedge 34.99 -0.73 34 41.25 333K 900K 31.62
Current. Testing on low volume.
CEPH 12/14 Put 50.33 -1.43 49.19 45.51 872K 2M 50.65
Buy Not Hit.
COLM 11/13 DB hdl 44.12 +0.01 41.96 48.45 338K 389K 44.25
Current. Testing the 50 day MVA with a nice doji on rising volume. Like this as it holds support at 44.
CVD 12/21 Cup hdl 24.5 +0.26 24.75 29.74 278K 581K 22.88
New. Like the action and will move in with just a bit more volume.
CVD 11/05 Test BO 24.5 +0.26 23.65 28 278K 581K 22.25
Current.
CVH 12/09 Put 29.65 -0.78 29.04 26 174K 820K 30.24
Current. Started to roll back over but held the 10 day MVA on the close. Needs to break down through that level.
DAKT 12/19 Cup hdl 13.52 -0.43 14.54 17.45 68K 150K 13.52
Buy Not Hit.
GPN 12/19 BO 31.99 +0.07 31.55 38 78K 225K 39.88
Current. Nice, steady though hardly spectacular move up.
GRMN 11/06 Cup hdl 29.81 -0.04 22.34 30 227K 198K 26.45
Current. Nice, low volume test.
HAR 11/21 Test 18 58.05 +1.4 61.6 70 218K 488K 59.85
Current. Nice volume move up off the 50 day MVA.
HD 09/16 Test 50 24.19 -0.01 34.55 38 8.4M 10M 32.13
Current.
HSIC 12/09 Put 45.65 -0.11 44.15 40 189K 667K 46.05
IBM 12/04 Test 50 78.5 -1.26 84.94 94.94 5.8M 12M 78.99
Current. Down to the 200 day MVA after trying to move higher. Needs to hold here.
IBM 11/11 Test 50 78.5 -1.26 78.45 88 5.8M 12M 82.24
Current.
IDBE 12/16 DB hdl 6.66 +0.1 6.65 8.55 31K 165K 6.06
Current. Still riding up the 10 day MVA.
JAKK 12/22 Put 13.8 -0.06 13.24 11 69K 325K 14.65
Buy Not Issued. Stalling at the 50 day MVA.
LBIX 10/14 Cup hdl 3.18 +0.15 3.22 4.35 34K 145K 3.32
Current.
LUK 11/16 Cup hdl 38.15 +0.18 38.51 44.45 69K 125K 37.97
Current. Holding the 50 day MVA still.
MBT 12/22 Cup hdl 38 -0.33 40.06 47.96 23K 255K 37.26
Buy Not Hit.
MERQ 12/11 Test BO 31 -0.32 31.55 38 1.2M 5M 28.85
Current. Still holding the 10 day MVA.
MRCY 12/14 Pennant 32.05 +0.18 31.65 37.85 145K 350K 29.43
Buy Not Hit. Looks very good.
MSFT 12/04 Test 18 53.39 -0.43 56.61 62.75 19M 67M 54.45
MSFT 11/13 Test BO 53.39 -0.43 56.15 62.55 19M 50M 55.74
Current. Unable to hold the move. Needs to make another move up over 55 and hold it.
MSFT 10/16 Test BO 53.39 -0.43 52.35 59 19M 50M 55.74
Current.
MSN 12/21 Test BO 4.85 -0.45 5.92 7.45 195K 150K 5.19
New.
MSN 12/04 Cup hdl 4.85 -0.45 4.85 6.35 195K 150K 4.51
Current. Suffered on the retail news, falling below the 18 day MVA on some volume. Giving it the session to recover.
MSN 11/23 Cup hdl 4.85 -0.45 4.15 5.68 195K 150K 4.51
Current.
NBIX 10/08 Rv H&S 49.08 +1.87 44.85 51.75 871K 1.1M 44.05
Current. Very nice move up on volume.
NSCN 12/22 Pennant 17 +0.55 17.24 21.24 362K 1.8M 16.03
Buy Not Issued. Looks very good.
NTII 12/22 Test BO 6.27 +0.02 6.74 8.25 71K 90K 6.18
Buy Not Hit.
PCLE 10/17 BO 13.93 -0.31 11.51 13.82 631K 800K 12.94
Current.
PFGC 12/09 Put 34.17 +0.46 33.97 31.75 196K 475K 34.75
Current. Stalling at the 200 day MVA.
PIXR 11/20 BO 56.22 -0.73 57.85 66 879K 775K 57.65
Current. Sold down to support at 56. needs to hold.
PKTR 12/11 Test 18 7 +0.13 8.34 10.55 95K 335K 7.55
Current. Holding the 50 day MVA.
PVSW 11/23 Cup 4.06 +0.01 4.27 5.35 16K 125K 3.97
Current.
QCOM 12/21 Test 50 38.07 -0.39 39.15 48 7.1M 18M 36.41
Buy Not Hit. Tried to make the move, but it was a wild session. Testing the 50 day MVA on the low and over the short term MVA on the highs.
QCOM 12/04 Test 18 38.07 -0.39 40.85 50 7.1M 18M 37.99
Current.
QCOM 11/07 Test BO 38.07 -0.39 34.78 42 7.1M 18M 38.14
Current.
QLGC 11/07 Test BO 37.27 -0.6 41.4 50 5.2M 25M 39.88
RDEN 12/17 Cup hdl 15 +0.12 15.39 18.45 80K 185K 14.31
Buy Not Hit. Still looks good.
RINO 10/24 Test BO 17.67 +0.4 17.35 20.75 110K 225K 16.95
Current. Held the 50 day MVA and started up on some rising volume.
RINO 08/28 Cup hdl 17.67 +0.4 13.8 20 110K 300K 16.95
Current.
SAFC 12/07 A Wedge 35.86 +0.16 36.69 41 399K 1.5M 34.12
Buy Not Hit.
SAY 12/12 Cup hdl 13.16 +0.09 13.48 16.98 69K 255K 12.54
Buy Not Hit.
SFNT 12/16 Test 50 25.45 -0.45 26.7 32.45 82K 188K 24.25
Current. Holding the 18 day MVA.
SINA 12/04 Test BO 7.25 +0.33 5.58 7.21 1.5M 950K 4.97
Current. Another super move on volume.
SJM 12/02 Test BO 39.62 +0.08 40.15 48 207K 476K 37.65
Buy Not Hit.
TARO 12/18 Cup hdl 38.52 +0.27 39.05 46.85 272K 575K 36.32
Buy Not Hit.
TK 12/07 Cup hdl 41.7 +0.33 39.25 46.65 156K 235K 36.15
Buy Not Issued.
TMCS 11/26 Test BO 21.8 -0.2 26.45 31.75 315K 1.2M 24.61
Exited.
TSCO 12/07 Test 18 36.96 +1.95 45.44 51.44 372K 475K 42.26
Buy Not Hit.
TSCO 10/16 Test BO 36.96 +1.95 39.05 46.85 372K 235K 42.05
Current. Nice recovery on volume. This stock does this.
TTEK 12/17 Test BO 12.75 0 14.01 16.85 156K 600K 13.03
Buy Not Hit.
UNTD 11/30 Test BO 16.3 -0.29 16.25 19.65 241K 1M 15.11
Current. Holding the 18 day MVA.
URBN 12/22 Put 23.21 +0.42 23.36 20.22 255K 500K 24.65
UTHR 11/12 DB hdl 17.25 +0.07 17.65 21.45 69K 295K 16.21
Current. Holding the 18 day MVA.
VIP 12/07 Test BO 33.02 +0.02 34.85 40 45K 300K 32.41
Buy Not Hit.
VIP 11/09 Test BO 33.02 +0.02 30.06 35 45K 285K 31.45
Current. Holding the short term moving averages on very low volume.
VZ 12/04 Cup hdl 39.69 +0.19 41 47.5 3.7M 11M 38.13
Buy Not Hit. Holding the short term moving averages with a hammer doji.
VZ 11/23 Cup hdl 39.69 +0.19 41 45 3.7M 11M 37.55
Current.
VZ 10/10 Test 50 39.69 +0.19 34.75 42 3.7M 10M 37.55
Current.
WFR 11/14 Cup hdl 8.05 +0.08 8.45 11 78K 325K 8.12
Current. Holdign the 50 day MVA on some below average volume.
YHOO 12/11 Test 50 16.96 -0.41 17.32 22.75 4.7M 20M 16.11
Current. Holding up very well.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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