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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good moves: PENN; AIG; SINA
Best Plays:
1) OVER: Very nice pattern
2) HLTH: Great ascending wedge.
3) Continuing: LOOK is still in a great pattern. RIMM is breakign back below the 50 day MVA again. JBHT started a move higher.
New Plays:
OVER (Overture Services--$28.97; -0.03; optionable): Internet information
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/over.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. OVER made us money back in September and October in its roling range and now it has broken out of that range and formed the current 9-week base sporting solid accumulation at 4 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume. Very strong accumulation in one of the sectors that is holding up the best in the mraket. This is part of a larger base that started back in January, and we are looking for a breakout here to make us some more money.
Volume: 654.438K Avg Volume: 1.946M
BUY POINT: $30.05 Volume=2.5M Target=$36 Stop=$27.95
POSITION: GUO EF - May $30c (54 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/over.html
STK (Storage Technology--$21.22; +0.02; optionable): Data storage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stk.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Working through 8.5 month base, now forming the handle as it holds the 18 day MVA on the lows (21.20), working laterally in a in a tight range. Accumulation is excellent at 9 accumulation weeks to 3 distribution weeks. Money flow continues to lead ahead of the stock price as it moves laterally in the handle. It has held up very well during the recent action, forming the handle to its base. That is what the better stocks do when the rest of the market sells: they hold up and complete the base, preparing for the next breakout.
Volume: 318.4K Avg Volume: 776.136K
BUY POINT: $23.21 Volume=1.2M Target=$27.88 Stop=$21.59
POSITION: STK FD - June $20c (72 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/stk.html
Revisited:
Play Date: 12/21/2002
MRK (Merck & Co.--$56.95; +0.02; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrk.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. Started moving higher Thursday but could not hold the move, closing just below the short term MVA. (18 day MVA at 57.37). It fell back from the high (58.12), but MRK remains in a nice position to move up from here. Still looks solid and a good addition to a portfolio needing some medical stocks.
Volume: 3.54M Avg Volume: 7.471M
BUY POINT: $58.05 Volume=9.5M Target=$67 Stop=$55.94
POSITION: MRK DK - April $55c (69 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/mrk.html
Play Date: 12/12/2002
HLTH (Webmd Corp.--$8.6; 0; optionable): Healthcare information software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hlth.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. HLTH worked through a 9-month base that it tried to breakout from in late November. It did not quite succeed, but is now forming a nice little ascending wedge this month as it holds the 18 day MVA on the lows (8.46). Solid accumulation, solid money flow. HLTH is showing a doji on very low volume as it holds the 10 day MVA. Looks ready to go.
Volume: 541.566K Avg Volume: 2.162M
BUY POINT: $8.85 Volume=3.1M Target=$11.35 Stop=$8.23
POSITION: HUT DU - April $7.50c (71 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/hlth.html
CONTINUING/WATCHLIST: These are stocks that are current plays (the buy point hit), waiting for the buy point to be hit (buy not hit), or buy not made for various reasons (buy alert not issued). The date references the date the play first appeared on the report. Pivot is the buy point.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
$SOX 12/07 Test 50 300.29 -1.28 335.15 385 0 0 313.94
Current. Holding at support at 300 with a hammer doji.
AIG 12/18 Put 58.3 -0.99 58.55 54 3.7M 7M 60.45
Current. Tried to clear the 10 day MVA and rolled down. Need to break below 58.
ALN 12/07 Test BO 10 0 9.86 11.85 92K 412K 9.17
ALN 11/09 Test BO 10 0 7.28 9.75 92K 200K 8.94
Current. Very nice flat consolidation above the 10 day MVA.
AMZN 11/30 Test BO 20.3 -1.58 22.85 29.65 14M 10M 21.25
Buy Not Hit.
AMZN 10/21 Cup hdl 20.3 -1.58 20.32 24.38 14M 10M 21.75
Current. Reported huge buying on its site and crashed below the 50 day MVA on some heavy volume. Letting it try and recover Friday.
ANT 12/11 Put 24.67 +1.42 22.45 20 126K 200K 23.55
Current. Strong move over the 50 day MVA on continued low volume. Will see if it tests back toward 23 to get a better exit.
ARB 12/22 Cup 33.59 -0.41 35.15 39.85 30K 155K 32.65
Buy Not Hit.
AVID 12/07 Test 18 22.61 +0.04 21 25 201K 500K 19.53
Current. Nice, easy pullback.
AVID 10/30 Cup hdl 22.61 +0.04 15.65 25 201K 177K 19.53
Current.
BCGI 12/19 Test 50 13.37 -0.18 13.75 16.55 34K 250K 12.65
Buy Not Issued.
BCGI 10/07 Cup hdl 13.37 -0.18 11.25 14 34K 250K 10.95
BEAS 12/19 Test BO 12.2 -0.08 11.77 14.74 4.7M 16M 10.75
Current. Nice easy test back after the strong move.
BRCM 11/16 BO 16.05 +0.06 15.9 20 4.6M 15M 14.79
Current.
C 12/19 A Wedge 36.02 -0.48 38.05 46 11M 25M 35.39
Current. Back at the 50 day MVA where it needs to hold.
CCK 11/21 BO 8.52 -0.09 8.6 11 409K 1.8M 7.74
Current. Held the 18 day MVA again.
CGX 12/03 Cup hdl 23.29 -0.3 22 26.45 25K 65K 21.94
Current. Moving laterally along the 10 day MVA.
CNMD 12/09 Put 19.29 0 17.97 15.75 57K 220K 19.25
Buy Not Hit.
CPWM 11/13 Cup hdl 29.65 +0.65 31.05 36.45 285K 471K 29.55
Current. Rallied to test the 18 day MVA on the high but could not hold the whole move.
CRAY 11/30 A Wedge 7.72 -0.1 7.38 8.85 623K 346K 6.55
Current. Still riding higher up the 10 day MVA.
CRAY 10/21 Cup 7.72 -0.1 4.28 8 623K 346K 6.88
Current.
CUB 07/06 Cup 18.96 +0.04 0 0 43K 0 0
DANKY 12/17 Cup hdl 4.19 +0.01 4.62 5.65 133K 560K 4.25
Buy Not Hit.
DSCO 12/07 Test BO 2.83 -0.02 3.04 4.05 57K 110K 2.83
Buy Not Issued.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 67.61 -2.08 69.45 77 5.5M 12M 67.25
Current. Great sales but broke below the 50 day MVA on news that AMZN would be a great short in 2003 (according to Forbes). Want to see it hold Friday an not try the 50 day MVA.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 67.61 -2.08 62.45 71 5.5M 12M 67.25
Current.
ECL 10/30 Cup hdl 49.64 -0.03 49.11 56.55 360K 1M 47.25
Current. Tried the breakout but gave back some of the move.
ESRX 12/18 Put 48.72 +0.55 47.65 44 973K 1.5M 49.05
Buy Not Hit.
FLML 12/05 Test BO 4.19 +0.03 4.05 5.97 15K 100K 4.05
Current. Still holding the 18 day MVA.
FOX 11/05 Cup hdl 26 -0.14 27.15 32.45 786K 1.5M 25.25
Current. Forming a wedge as it moves up the 50 day MVA.
GPS 12/16 Cup hdl 14.88 +0.41 16.81 20.15 3M 9M 15.63
Buy Not Hit.
GRMN 11/06 Cup hdl 29.81 -0.04 22.34 30 227K 198K 26.45
Current. Nice, low volume test.
HLTH 12/12 Cup hdl 8.6 0 8.85 11.35 542K 3.1M 8.23
Buy Not Hit. Looks very good.
HOTT 11/23 A Wedge 23.25 +0.52 23.9 28 704K 1.5M 21.81
Current. Moved up off the test of the 50 day MVA on some risign volume.
JBHT 12/12 A Wedge 29.58 +0.31 30.18 35.25 234K 725K 28.07
Buy Not Hit. Looks ready.
LBIX 10/14 Cup hdl 3.18 +0.15 3.22 4.35 34K 145K 3.32
Current.
LLY 12/09 Test 18 63.9 -0.53 66.25 75 1.9M 6.2M 61.61
Buy Not Hit.
LMLP 12/07 Cup hdl 13.53 -0.24 10.75 12.96 72K 135K 12.25
Buy Not Issued. Very nice flying plateau.
LMLP 11/23 Cup hdl 13.53 -0.24 9.75 14.25 72K 135K 12.25
Current.
LOOK 12/22 Cup hdl 2.63 -0.03 2.94 4.95 200K 950K 2.58
Buy Not Hit. Looks ready, moving up the 18 day MVA.
LOW 07/06 Test 50 37.32 +0.47 0 0 2.7M 0 0
MDCO 12/05 Test BO 16.15 -0.38 17.05 20.55 301K 800K 15.35
Buy Not Hit.
MRK 12/21 Test 50 56.95 +0.02 58.05 67 3.5M 9.5M 55.94
Buy Not Hit. Looks ready for the next move.
MRK 12/07 Test BO 56.95 +0.02 59.15 67 3.5M 9.5M 55.94
Current.
MSFT 12/04 Test 18 53.39 -0.43 56.61 62.75 19M 67M 54.45
MVL 11/04 BO 8.75 +0.04 8.74 10.75 88K 400K 8.35
Current. Up over the 18 day MVA though volume is not running.
NOC 07/06 Test 50 97.99 -0.76 0 0 994K 1.7M 0
NTES 12/19 Test BO 12.35 -0.45 12 14.45 474K 550K 10.94
Current. Very nice, pulling back on some low volume. Want it to hold at 12.
NXTL 11/19 Test BO 12.6 -0.28 13.05 16.15 9.7M 35M 11.35
Current. Still holding up well though it closed below the short term MVA.
OSTK 11/16 Test BO 13.8 -0.92 14.48 18 147K 125K 12.55
Current. Huge jump in sales this year (164%) over last year at Christmas, yet it falls to the 18 day MVA on rising volume. Still in good shape, but needs to hold here.
OSTK 11/16 Cup hdl 13.8 -0.92 10.65 16.05 147K 125K 12.75
Current.
OVER 12/26 Cup hdl 28.97 -0.03 30.05 36 654K 2.5M 27.95
New.
PENN 12/14 Put 15.33 -0.67 16.55 14 385K 300K 17.65
Current. Nice drop on volume.
PG 09/21 Test 18 87.43 -0.1 91.55 103 1.7M 5.5M 89.45
PIXR 11/20 BO 56.22 -0.73 57.85 66 879K 775K 57.65
Current. Still holding above the 50 day MVA and support at 56. This is where it needs to make its stand.
PPD 11/14 Test BO 26.93 +0.17 25.51 30.55 386K 450K 26.25
Current. Holding the 10 day MVA.
PRA 12/11 Cup hdl 21.04 -0.07 20.26 24.32 141K 145K 19.05
Current. Moving laterally as volume gets better.
QCOM 12/21 Test 50 38.07 -0.39 39.15 48 7.1M 18M 36.41
Buy Not Hit.
QCOM 12/04 Test 18 38.07 -0.39 40.85 50 7.1M 18M 37.99
Buy Not Hit. Tried to make the move, but it was a wild session. Testing the 50 day MVA on the low and over the short term MVA on the highs.
QCOM 11/07 Test BO 38.07 -0.39 34.78 42 7.1M 18M 38.14
Current.
QLGC 11/07 Test BO 37.27 -0.6 41.4 50 5.2M 25M 39.88
QLGC 08/17 CCall 37.27 -0.6 36.48 0 5.2M 12M 37
Current.
RCII 08/24 Test 18 51.71 +1.22 58.02 66.45 532K 701K 53.96
RIMM 12/22 Put 13.31 -0.43 12.94 9.95 626K 1.7M 14.04
Buy Not Issued. Falling back through the 50 day MVA on some volume. Good downside momentum.
ROK 12/14 Cup hdl 20.6 +0.17 21.89 26.25 840K 1M 19.95
Current. Holding at the 18 day MVA.
SFNT 12/16 Test 50 25.45 -0.45 26.7 32.45 82K 188K 24.25
Current. Holding the 18 day MVA as well.
SFNT 11/06 Cup hdl 25.45 -0.45 20.78 25 82K 188K 25.45
Current.
SINA 12/04 Test BO 7.25 +0.33 5.58 7.21 1.5M 950K 4.97
Current. Another super move on volume.
SRCL 10/19 Cup 31.73 +0.17 35.25 40 228K 787K 32.78
STK 12/26 Cup hdl 21.22 +0.02 23.21 27.88 318K 1.2M 21.59
New.
TSCO 12/07 Test 18 36.96 +1.95 45.44 51.44 372K 475K 42.26
Buy Not Hit.
TSCO 10/16 Test BO 36.96 +1.95 39.05 46.85 372K 235K 42.05
Current. Nice recovery on volume. This stock does this.
UNTD 11/30 Test BO 16.3 -0.29 16.25 19.65 241K 1M 15.11
Current. Holding the 18 day MVA.
UNTD 11/02 Cup hdl 16.3 -0.29 13.3 16 241K 1M 14.75
Current.
UPL 10/19 A Wedge 9.52 -0.18 9.68 11.75 127K 345K 9
Current. Still riding up the 18 day MVA.
UTHR 11/12 DB hdl 17.25 +0.07 17.65 21.45 69K 295K 16.21
Current.
UTIW 12/17 Rv H&S 26.18 +0.31 24.56 29 92K 175K 23.74
Current. Still moving higher up the 10 day MVA.
VRTS 08/19 BO 17.06 -0.37 19.76 20 3M 8.5M 17.45
Current.
WM 07/06 Cup 35.18 +0.17 0 0 2M 5.5M 0
XTO 12/18 Flat 25.55 -0.55 25.65 30.75 557K 1.1M 24.45
Current. Turned back down and closed at the 10 day MVA. Still in good shape but disappointing move as oil continues to rise.
YHOO 12/11 Test 50 16.96 -0.41 17.32 22.75 4.7M 20M 16.11
Current. Holding up very well.
ZQK 11/05 DB hdl 25.78 +0.57 25.22 30.25 142K 425K 25.74
Current. Managed to move back over the 50 day MVA but needs a lot more pop here.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
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