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trade stock, stock recommendation
Begin Part 2 of 2
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 12/10/2002
ADTN (Adtran--$32.23; +0.33; optionable): Telecommunications equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adtn.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still moving laterally after the strong October/November move, riding laterally along the 18 day MVA (31.47) as it forms another shallow base on top of the prior breakout. Money flow continues to rise ahead of the lateral consolidation. Still looking for the solid breakout.
Volume: 155.258K Avg Volume: 540K
BUY POINT: New: $32.85 (orig. $32.05). Volume=800K Target=$38.45 Stop=$30.35
POSITION: RQA EF - May $30c (64 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/adtn.html
Play Date: 12/16/2002
AVO (Advanced Medical Optics--$11.9; -0.1; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avo.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Still knocking at the breakout door, pulling back slightly Friday, still holding the 10 day MVA. Looking for another solid move through the buy point on strong volume. Accumulation is positive at 4 accumulation weeks (up price on rising volume) to 3 distribution weeks (down price on rising volume). Close.
Volume: 101K Avg Volume: 137K
BUY POINT: $12.06 Volume=210K Target=$14.45 Stop=$11.22
POSITION: AVO DB - April $10c (72 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/avo.html
Play Date: 12/11/2002
BSTE (Biosite--$34.48; -0.52; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bste.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. BSTE made the move and in the recent selling has pulled back to the 10 day MVA on lower volume. Givne all the odwnside action, that is very positive trade as BSTE holds over the recent breakout point as it tests the move. That is a sign of a stronger stock, and now we look for BSTE to hold the line and start up on rising volume. That will be a signsl for new entry points.
Volume: 291.554K Avg Volume: 626.409K
BUY POINT: New: $35.05 (orig. 34) Volume=900K Target=$41.25 Stop=$33.22
POSITION: BQS DF - April $30c (70 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bste.html
Play Date: 11/13/2002
COLM (Columbia Sportswear--$43.46; -0.66; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/colm.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. COLM is one of the few clothing makers still standking, but it was not immune to the recent selling. After a strong move up the short term MVA in October and November, a 50 day MVA test is normal. Friday it tapped the 50 day MVA on the low (42.88) and rallied back on some sharply rising volume. Typically that means that big money came in to support the stock, driving it up off of that level. We are looking to enter new positions if it can clear the short term MVA at 45.
Volume: 532.543K Avg Volume: 335K
BUY POINT: New: $45.05 (orig. $41.96) Volume=389K Target=$48.45 Stop=$44.25
POSITION: TQQ DH - April $40c (60 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/colm.html
Play Date: 11/21/2002
HAR (Harman Intl.--$59.1; +1.05; optionable): Electronic equipment (speakers, etc.)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/har.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. HAR is providing the same move as COLM. It rallied up the short term MVA October to November, then gave a test back to the 50 day MVA where it found support and is now rallying back up on sharply rising volume. Indeed, volume was strong Thursday and very strong Friday in a very weak volume market. This is the kind of support you like to see as a stock starts to move back up off of the 50 day.
Volume: 350K Avg Volume: 335K
BUY POINT: New: 60.11 (orig. $61.60) Volume=488K Target=$70 Stop=$59.85
POSITION: HAR DL - April $60 and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/har.html
Play Date: 12/22/2002
MBT (Mobile Telesys--$38.06; +0.06; no options): Wireless communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mbt.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. MBT continues to work laterally above the 18 day MVA, tappign that level on the Friday lwo and recoverying on volume surge. After the 9.5 month base, MBT looks ready to make the breakout. Have to be patient and let the stock make the breakout.
Volume: 110.4K Avg Volume: 170K
BUY POINT: $40.06 Volume=255K Target=$47.96 Stop=$37.26
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mbt.html
Play Date: 12/14/2002
MRCY (Mercury Computer Systems--$31.84; -0.2; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrcy.html
STATUS: Pennant. The pennant is forming up into an ascending wedge, a much stronger upside pattern. The pattern has tightened up above the 10 day MVA with 32 as the ceiling on the move. The pressure is building and we are looking for a the breakout. They can be very strong from these patterns. Good accumulation is setting up the move (5 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume).
Volume: 115.311K Avg Volume: 228.772K
BUY POINT: 32.55 (orig. $31.65) Volume=350K Target=$37.85 Stop=$29.43
POSITION: QYR EF - May $30c (63 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mrcy.html
Play Date: 12/21/2002
NSCN (Netscreen Technologies--$17.2; +0.32; optionable): Security software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nscn.html
STATUS: Pennant. Still toying with the breakout. NSCN is edging higher but not getting any volume. Accumulation since January is positive at 13 accumulation weeks to 11 distribution weeks, very good for this stage in the base when it is just starting to build the right side. Money flow into the stock is huge.
Volume: 314.467K Avg Volume: 1.075M
BUY POINT: $16.69 Volume=1.8M Target=$20.15 Stop=$15.45
POSITION: QKN FC - June $15c (67 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nscn.html
Play Date: 12/07/2002
SAFC (Safeco--$35.52; -0.34; optionable): Property and casualty insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/safc.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. After trying to make the break Thursday but not grabbing any volume, SAFC tested down to the 10 day MVA, showing a very tight doji as volume rose. SAFC has been building upside pressure for the move and it looks ready. Money flow is storng and accumulation in the recent pattern is solid at 2 accumulation weeks to 1 distribution week.
Volume: 645.25K Avg Volume: 1.028M
BUY POINT: $36.69 Volume=1.5M Target=$41 Stop=$34.12
POSITION: SAQ EF - May $30c (70 delta, low OI) or SAQ EG - May $35c (65 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/safc.html
Play Date: 11/30/2002
UNTD (United Online--$16.19; -0.11; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/untd.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. UNTD has been a leader in the rally, and Friday it showed a very tight doji right on the 18 day MVA as volume edged higher. It has moved laterally the past four weeks, forming something of an ascending wedge. Looks ready to try a move higher. This is where it needs to do it.
Volume: 312.94K Avg Volume: 925K
BUY POINT: $16.25 Volume=1M Target=$19.65 Stop=$15.55
POSITION: QAB CC - Mar. $15c (65 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/untd.html
Downside
Play Date: 12/14/2002
CEPH (Cephalon--$49.02; -1.31; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceph.html
STATUS: Put. Friday CEPH started the move, falling sharply below the 200 day MVA (50.54) on some rising volume. This was the move we were looking for as CEPH completes the toppy, head and shoulders pattern. A further buy from here.
Volume: 1.104M Avg Volume: 2.3M
BUY POINT: $49.19 Volume=2M Target=$45.51 Stop=$50.65
POSITION: CQE NJ - Feb. $50p (-46 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ceph.html
Play Date: 12/21/2002
JAKK (Jakks Pacific--$13.7; -0.1; optionable): Toys and games
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jakk.html
STATUS: Put. Head and shoulders breakdown. JAKK has rallied back after dumping a week ago, but it has run out of gas as it moved up to test the 50 day MVA on lower volume. Looking for it to turn over on much higher volume.
Volume: 60.871K Avg Volume: 224.227K
BUY POINT: $13.24 Volume=325K Target=$11 Stop=$14.65
POSITION: UFF OC - Mar. $15p (-58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jakk.html
Play Date: 12/21/2002
URBN (Urban Outfitters--$22.67; -0.54; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/urbn.html
STATUS: Put. URBN started down Friday on some rising though still below average volume after collapsing through the 50 day MVA just below 25 the prior week. The weak move up failed below resistance at 24, and on further selling this is still a good entry point.
Volume: 269.097K Avg Volume: 390K
BUY POINT: New: 22.55 (orig. $23.36) Volume=500K Target=$20.22 Stop=$24.65
POSITION: URQ OE - Mar. $25p (-49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/urbn.html
Play Date: 12/09/2002
PFGC (Performance Food Group--$33.73; -0.44; optionable): Wholesale food
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pfgc.html
STATUS: Put. PFGC tried the 18 day MVA on the high Thursday and Friday (34.47), then started to fall Friday. Still a buy at this point and we will look at more positions on further selling with some higher volume.
Volume: 177.413K Avg Volume: 447.045K
BUY POINT: New: $33.68 (orig. $33.97) Volume=475K Target=$31.75 Stop=$34.75
POSITION: PGU MG - Jan. $35p (-50 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pfgc.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING:
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
$SOX 12/07 Test 50 296.49 -3.80 335.15 385 0 0 313.94
Current. Holding near support at 300, good point for oversold bounce.
ADTN 12/10 Test 18 32.23 +0.33 32.05 38.45 155K 800K 30.35
Current. Still working in a test of the breakout, holding the 18 day MVA.
AIG 12/18 Put 56.68 -1.62 58.55 54 4.5M 7M 59.15
Current. Selling strengthens on rising volume, breaking the key level at 58.
AMTD 12/19 A Wedge 5.02 -0.19 5.54 6.85 600K 165K 5.15
Buy Not Hit. Thudded lower Friday, falling below the short term MVA.
ANT 12/11 Put 24.55 -0.12 22.45 20 92K 200K 23.55
Current. Doji after the strong move. Looking for a test back toward 23.
APSG 12/28 Cup hdl 11.36 -0.23 12.04 14.55 54K 85K 11.45
New.
ASKJ 12/26 Cup hdl 2.46 -0.12 2.89 3.88 57K 305K 2.44
Buy not hit. Fell below the 18 day MVA, but holding the handle just fine.
AVCT 12/28 Test 50 22.09 -0.4 23.08 27 159K 750K 21.46
New.
AVID 12/07 Test 18 22.8 +0.18 21 25 598K 500K 20.15
Current. Tried to rally Friday, hitting 23.47 on the high. Volume jumped. Still looks good here.
AVID 10/30 Cup hdl 22.8 +0.18 15.65 25 598K 177K 20.15
Current.
AVO 12/16 A Wedge 11.9 -0.1 12.06 14.45 101K 210K 11.22
Buy Not Hit. Trying to move toward the breakout as volume moves up.
AVP 11/25 Cup hdl 53.61 -0.57 52.94 61 613K 1.8M 52.75
Current. Gave back some of the Thursday move, but still holding up.
BER 11/13 Cup hdl 39.1 -0.73 38.4 45 142K 306K 38.35
Current. Still working laterally along the 18 day MVA, though Friday's move was disappointing, giving back the Thursday gain.
BOH 10/26 Cup hdl 30.33 -0.18 29.94 36 177K 427K 29.61
Current. Still working laterally, but we are just about ready to move on here.
BORL 12/26 Cup hdl 12.56 -0.39 13.42 16.45 266K 1.2M 12.48
Buy not hit. Fell to the 18 day MVA. Needs to get it together.
BRCM 08/17 CCall 15.92 -0.09 19.2 19.8 4.1M 9M 17.25
Current. Holding at the 50 day MVA with a doji after a 2-week lateral move.
BSTE 12/11 A Wedge 34.48 -0.52 34 41.25 292K 900K 33.22
Current. Lower volume test of the 10 day MVA.
CEPH 12/14 Put 49.02 -1.31 49.19 45.51 1.1M 2M 50.65
Current. Tanking on some volume.
COLM 11/13 DB hdl 43.46 -0.66 41.96 48.45 533K 389K 44.25
Current. High volume bounce off the 50 day MVA.
CVD 12/21 Cup hdl 24.63 +0.13 24.75 29.74 436K 581K 22.88
Buy not issued. Rallied again Friday on some volume, but did not hold all of the gain. We could have entered but decided to hold off until early this week and see if the move continues. Looks solid.
CVD 11/05 Test BO 24.63 +0.13 23.65 28 436K 581K 23.35
Current.
CVH 12/09 Put 29.21 -0.44 29.04 26 132K 820K 30.24
Current. Falling back below the 200 day MVA but not a lot of volume. Looking to exit if it cannot get through 28 early this week.
ETM 12/28 Put 45.87 -1.53 45.75 42 185K 325K 46.78
New.
GPN 12/19 BO 31.35 -0.64 31.55 38 75K 225K 30.12
Current. Turned back from 32 Friday on continued light volume, but was able to hold the 10 day MVA.
GRMN 11/06 Cup hdl 29.78 -0.03 22.34 31 195K 198K 28.05
Current. Very nice, orderly pullback after the big move.
HAR 11/21 Test 18 59.1 +1.05 61.6 70 350K 488K 59.85
Current. Nice volume move up off of the 50 day MVA.
HD 09/16 Test 50 23.77 -0.42 34.55 38 8.3M 10M 32.13
Current.
HSIC 12/09 Put 44.81 -0.84 44.15 40 246K 667K 46.05
Buy Not Issued. Looks ready to break down after a low volume test of the 50 day MVA last week, but want to see more volume on the selling.
IBM 12/04 Test 50 77.36 -1.14 84.94 94.94 6.3M 12M 78.99
Current. Fell through the 200 day MVA Friday. Will give it Monday to recover.
IBM 11/11 Test 50 77.36 -1.14 78.45 88 6.3M 12M 82.24
Current.
IDBE 12/16 DB hdl 6.6 -0.06 6.65 8.55 38K 165K 6.15
Current. Holding the 10 day MVA with a doji as it continues to work up the short term MVA.
JAKK 12/22 Put 13.7 -0.1 13.55 11 61K 325K 14.65
Buy Not Issued. Trying to stall out at the 50 day MVA.
LBIX 10/14 Cup hdl 2.75 -0.43 3.22 4.35 191K 145K 3.32
Current. Suddenly dumped Friday, testing the 200 day MVA on the low and rebounding. Will see if it can recovery this wee back over the 50 day MVA.
LUK 11/16 Cup hdl 37.45 -0.7 38.51 44.45 56K 125K 37.97
Current. Fell below the 50 day MVA Friday on low volume. Will give it Monday to recovery by the close.
MBT 12/22 Cup hdl 38.06 +0.06 40.06 47.96 110K 255K 37.26
Buy Not Hit. Nice doji on the 18 day MVA.
MERQ 12/11 Test BO 30.67 -0.33 31.55 38 1.2M 5M 29.94
Current. Holding at the 18 day MVA on continued below average volume. Having trouble with 32. Needs to clear it this week or we will take the money off the table and let it form up again.
MLHR 12/28 Put 18.15 -0.26 17.94 15.85 166K 425K 19.05
New.
MRCY 12/14 Pennant 31.84 -0.2 32.55 37.85 115K 350K 29.43
Buy Not Hit. Still in the solid pattern.
MSFT 11/13 Test BO 52.97 -0.42 56.15 62.55 21M 50M 55.74
Current. Continues to work laterally in the recent range. That is about the best you can say for it.
MSFT 10/16 Test BO 52.97 -0.42 52.35 59 21M 50M 55.74
Current.
MSN 12/04 Cup hdl 4.65 -0.2 4.85 6.35 121K 150K 4.51
Current. Trying to hold at the early December high with a tight hammer doji. Needs to recover here.
MSN 11/23 Cup hdl 4.65 -0.2 4.15 5.68 121K 150K 4.51
Current.
NBIX 10/08 Rv H&S 47.25 -1.88 44.85 51.75 481K 1.1M 45.45
Current. Turned and gave back the solid Thursday move, but it did so on very low volume. Just no buyers Friday; still in good shape.
NSCN 12/22 Pennant 17.2 +0.32 17.24 21.24 314K 1.8M 16.03
Buy Not Issued. Working toward the breakout but needs some volume.
NTII 12/22 Test BO 5.92 -0.35 6.74 8.25 20K 90K 6.18
Buy Not Hit. Slipped below the 18 day MVA. Losing momentum.
PCLE 10/17 BO 13.77 -0.16 11.51 13.82 316K 800K 13.15
Current. Still working up and down in a range this month between 13.25 and 14.75. Still looking for a stronger breakout.
PFGC 12/09 Put 33.73 -0.44 33.97 31.75 177K 475K 34.75
Current. Turned over from another test of the 18 day MVA Friday.
PIXR 11/20 BO 53.29 -2.93 57.85 66 915K 775K 57.65
Exited.
PKTR 12/11 Test 18 7 0 8.34 10.55 286K 335K 7.55
Current. Trying to rise off the 50 day MVA. Friday it got a big volume spike to help escort it.
PVSW 11/23 Cup 4.05 -0.01 4.27 5.35 25K 125K 3.97
Current. Moving laterally at 4 on no volume. Want to see another breakout attempt soon.
QCOM 12/21 Test 50 37.27 -0.8 39.15 48 6.5M 18M 36.41
Buy Not Hit.
QCOM 12/04 Test 18 37.27 -0.8 40.85 50 6.5M 18M 37.99
Current. Holding the 50 day MVA on low volume as it continues to hold over support at the late October high.
QCOM 11/07 Test BO 37.27 -0.8 34.78 42 6.5M 18M 38.14
Current.
QLGC 11/07 Test BO 36.87 -0.4 41.4 50 4.9M 25M 39.88
Current. Still hovering around the 50 day MVA.
RDEN 12/17 Cup hdl 14.41 -0.59 15.39 18.45 49K 185K 14.31
Buy Not Hit. Down Friday on below average volume, tapping the 18 day MVA on the low and recovering to close at the 10 day MVA. Still a good pattern but needs to clear 15 again soon.
RINO 10/24 Test BO 17.25 -0.42 17.35 20.75 130K 225K 16.95
Current. Still trying to get up off the 50 day MVA, but up and down each session. Need to see a move this week.
RINO 08/28 Cup hdl 17.25 -0.42 13.8 20 130K 300K 16.95
Current.
SAFC 12/07 A Wedge 35.52 -0.34 36.69 41 645K 1.5M 34.12
Buy Not Hit. Very good action in the base, holding the 18 day MVA Friday with a very tight doji on some rising volume.
SAY 12/12 Cup hdl 13.15 -0.01 13.48 16.98 111K 255K 12.54
Buy Not Hit. Still moving laterally over the 10 day MVA in the handle.
SFNT 12/16 Test 50 24.6 -0.84 26.7 32.45 85K 188K 24.25
Current. Could not hold the 18 day MVA Friday, but managed to bounce off the low at support at 24.
SINA 12/04 Test BO 6.67 -0.58 5.58 7.21 1.6M 950K 6.48
Current. Testing the strong surge higher though gave back more than we would want in a single session to start the pullback to test 6.25.
SJM 12/02 Test BO 39.35 -0.27 40.15 48 156K 476K 37.65
Buy Not Hit. Moved back up and is now holding the 10 day MVA. Still looking for a strong breakout move.
TARO 12/18 Cup hdl 37.5 -1.02 39.05 46.85 410K 575K 36.32
Buy Not Hit. Wilder action Friday as TARO tested below the 50 day MVA and rebounded on some rising volume.
TK 12/07 Cup hdl 41.5 -0.2 39.25 46.65 91K 235K 36.15
Buy Not Issued. Still working laterally, testing the 10 day MVA on the low and rebounding. A good lateral consolidation of the big breakout move 9 sessions back. May test the 10 day MVA again before being ready to move higher.
TSCO 10/16 Test BO 37.61 +0.65 39.05 46.85 292K 235K 42.05
Current. Continues its recover but volume backed off Friday. The real test will be at 40 when it gets back to the 50 day MVA.
TTEK 12/17 Test BO 12.32 -0.43 14.01 16.85 237K 600K 13.03
Buy Not Hit. Still working in the breakout, but fell below the 18 day MVA Friday on the close as volume edged higher.
UNTD 11/30 Test BO 16.19 -0.11 16.25 19.65 313K 1M 15.55
Current. Very nice test of the 18 day MVA from this leader.
URBN 12/22 Put 22.67 -0.54 23.36 20.22 269K 500K 24.65
Current. The weak bounce attempt started to roll over Friday.
UTHR 11/12 DB hdl 17.08 -0.17 17.65 21.45 74K 295K 16.21
Current. Still working in the tight, lateral move along the 18 day MVA. Needs to make a move soon, but would not be surprised to see a quick shakeout test down to 16.50 or so and then a recovery.
VIP 12/07 Test BO 32.6 -0.42 34.85 40 126K 300K 32.41
Buy Not Hit.
VIP 11/09 Test BO 32.6 -0.42 30.06 35 126K 285K 31.95
Current. Struggling to regain the breakout it made in November. Trying to hold the 18 day MVA, but it is a struggle.
VZ 12/04 Cup hdl 38.9 -0.79 41 47.5 3.7M 11M 38.13
Buy Not Hit.
VZ 11/23 Cup hdl 38.9 -0.79 41 45 3.7M 11M 38.25
Current. Sank below the 18 day MVA Friday but held the simple 50 day MVA on the session. Still in decent shape but needs to definitively clear 40 on some volume this week.
VZ 10/10 Test 50 38.9 -0.79 34.75 42 3.7M 10M 37.96
Current.
WFR 11/14 Cup hdl 7.99 -0.06 8.45 11 100K 325K 8.12
Current. Holding the 50 day MVA on continued below average volume.
WGO 12/28 Put 40 -0.72 39.49 36 153K 270K 41
New.
YHOO 12/11 Test 50 16.58 -0.37 17.32 22.75 4.6M 20M 16.11
Current. Testing the simple 50 day MVA on very low volume as e-tail came under pressure late in the week.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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