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Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good moves: AIG is still tanking.
Friday Plays:
OVER: Still working in the handle with a doji.
STK: Holding at the 18 day MVA in the handle.
MRK: Fell to the 50 day MVA.
HLTH: Working in the wedge still, holding at the 18 day MVA.
Best Plays:
1) ROIAK: Nice rolling pattern.
2) WGO: Broke down and looks to be failing the consolidation attempt.
3) Continuing: BEAS looks very good in its pullback as does UNTD. HLTH, OVER, UTHR still working in their patterns and look good. ESRX is falling and still a buy to the downside. OVER is crouching for the move.
New Plays:
DISK (Image Entertainment--$2.45; 0; no options): Entertainment licensing for home use (DVD, broadcast, etc.)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/disk.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Working in the 3-week handle to its 10-month base, DISK shows solid accumulation at 7 accumulation weeks (up weeks on rising volume) to 5 distribution weeks (down weeks on rising volume). The handle has tested lower during the lateral move, just what you want to see to help shake out the weak holders and create demand for the breakout. At the same time it moves laterally money flow is racing higher, a very bullish sign. In addition, relative strength is breaking out, indicating that DISK is one of the stronger stocks in the market. Now waiting for the breakout.
Volume: 32.7K Avg Volume: 25K (thinner volume than usual)
BUY POINT: $2.61 Volume=37K Target=$3.15 Stop=$2.38
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/disk.html
ROIAK (Radio One--$13.95; -0.08; optionable): Radio broadcasting
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/roiak.html
STATUS: Rolling. ROIAK is not going anywhere fast, meaning it is moving in a range from 14 to near 18, rolling up and down in roughly 3-week cycles (per leg) over the past 3.5 months. Like clockwork it has again hit at 14, and has showed a doji as it slowed its descent as it approached that level. Now we are looking for the stock to roll up once more and provide a nice, easy upside gain.
Volume: 234.173K Avg Volume: 640K
BUY POINT: $14.55 Volume=650K Target=$17.49 Stop=$13.53
POSITION: UFK DV - April $12.50c (no OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/roiak.html
Downside: We are looking at downside given the continued lethargy in the market, but are focusing stil on stocks in continuing downtrends or stocks that have crashed through support. With the market at an important juncture, it could rebound and thus we do not want to play mere pullbacks to to the downside but want to see stocks in serious trouble.
MLHR (Herman Miller--$18.15; -0.26; optionable): Business equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mlhr.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA breach. MLHR fell below the 50 day MVA (18.80) four sessions back. This move followed a double test of the 200 day MVA (19.92) in December that failed. After breaking the 50 day, MLHR tested it on Thursday's high, and then fell further Friday. There is some support at 18, and we are looking for MLHR to break that level before entering and then letting it work lower for us as it stair-steps down the short term MVA.
Volume: 165.959K Avg Volume: 435K
BUY POINT: $17.94 Volume=425K Target=$15.85 Stop=$19.05
POSITION: MHQ ND - Feb. $20p (-73 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/mlhr.html
USAI (USA Interactive--$22.01; -1.36; optionable): Broadcast TV
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/usai.html
STATUS: Head & shoulders. USAI tanked Friday on rising volume Friday as it completed its head and shoulders pattern. It is tanking and we are going to grab onto the move and ride it down from here. It may try to bounce up some early this week after such a strong move lower, but the momentum is down and we will let it work for us. The strong delta and the room to fall gives us nice return potential for this play.
Volume: 2.071M Avg Volume: 4.5M
BUY POINT: $21.88 Volume=4.5M Target=$19.25 Stop=$22.55
POSITION: QTH NE - Feb. $25p (-71 delta, no OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/usai.html
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: CUB, EBAY, HOTT; LOW, NOC, PG, QLGC, RCII, SRCL, WM
These are the stocks that our subscribers vote to put in a 'portfolio' to track their progress and comment upon when they reach buy points, sell points, or levels to write some covered calls on. They are not covered every report, but when something interesting is developing we take note.
Still looking to revamp the portfolio beginning the new year. Please get your picks in as soon as possible.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 67.03 -0.58 69.45 77 3.3M 12M 67.25
Current. Took on water late in the week on the retail worries, testing above the 50 day MVA. Solid support at 66 and are willing to let EBAY work back from here.
HOTT 11/23 A Wedge 23.09 -0.16 23.9 28 470K 1.5M 22.45
Current. Dropped to the 50 day MVA early in the week and rebounded, but is stalling at the short term MVA (23.50) in the retail lethargy.
CONTINUING/WATCHLIST: These are stocks that are current plays (the buy point hit), waiting for the buy point to be hit (buy not hit), or buy not made for various reasons (buy alert not issued). The date references the date the play first appeared on the report. Pivot is the buy point.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
$SOX 12/07 Test 50 296.49 -3.80 335.15 385 0 0 313.94
Current. Holding near support at 300, good point for oversold bounce.
AIG 12/18 Put 56.68 -1.62 58.55 54 4.5M 7M 59.15
Current. Selling strengthens on rising volume, breaking the key level at 58.
ALN 12/07 Test BO 9.69 -0.31 9.86 11.85 108K 412K 9.17
ALN 11/09 Test BO 9.69 -0.31 7.28 9.75 108K 200K 9.25
Current. Has tested back to the 18 day MVA in the market selling. Very low volume, but needs to hold here as this is the second 18 day MVA test in 3 weeks.
AMZN 10/21 Cup hdl 18.86 -1.44 20.32 24.38 22M 10M 21.75
Crashed through the 50 day MVA on volume as speculation rises about 2003.
ANT 12/11 Put 24.55 -0.12 22.45 20 92K 200K 23.55
Current. Doji after the strong move. Looking for a test back toward 23.
AVID 12/07 Test 18 22.8 +0.18 21 25 598K 500K 20.15
Current. Tried to rally Friday, hitting 23.47 on the high. Volume jumped. Still looks good here.
AVID 10/30 Cup hdl 22.8 +0.18 15.65 25 598K 177K 20.15
Current.
BCGI 12/19 Test 50 13.25 -0.12 13.75 16.55 86K 250K 12.65
Buy Not Issued.
BEAS 12/19 Test BO 11.85 -0.35 11.77 14.74 4.7M 16M 10.94
Current. Holding up very well, testing back toward the 10 day MVA in an orderly manner.
BRCM 11/16 BO 15.92 -0.09 15.9 20 4.1M 15M 14.79
Current. Holding at the 50 day MVA with a doji after a 2-week lateral move.
C 12/19 A Wedge 35.17 -0.85 38.05 46 14M 25M 35.39
Exited.
CCK 11/21 BO 7.98 -0.54 8.6 11 1.1M 1.8M 7.85
Current. Broke below the 18 day MVA on volume. If cannot hold this week we will not let it fall further.
CGX 12/03 Cup hdl 22.45 -0.84 22 26.45 15K 65K 21.94
Current. Testing the 18 day MVA on very low volume as this early leader takes a breather.
CPWM 11/13 Cup hdl 29.34 -0.31 31.05 36.45 348K 471K 29.55
Exited.
CRAY 11/30 A Wedge 7.7 -0.02 7.38 8.85 392K 346K 7.15
Current. Still working higher with a lower volume test of the 10 day MVA.
CRAY 10/21 Cup 7.7 -0.02 4.28 8 392K 346K 7.15
Current.
CUB 07/06 Cup 18.41 -0.55 0 0 54K 0 0
DANKY 12/17 Cup hdl 4.3 +0.11 4.62 5.65 163K 560K 4.25
Buy Not Hit. Holding the 18 day MVA and bouncing slightly on some rising volume. May be ready for the move.
DISK 12/28 Cup hdl 2.45 0 2.61 3.15 33K 37K 2.38
New.
DSCO 12/07 Test BO 2.73 -0.1 3.04 4.05 40K 110K 2.83
Buy Not Issued. Still working laterally over support at 2.60.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 67.03 -0.58 69.45 77 3.3M 12M 67.25
Current. Took on water late in the week on the retail worries, testing above the 50 day MVA. Solid support at 66 and are willing to let EBAY work back from here.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 67.03 -0.58 62.45 71 3.3M 12M 67.25
Current.
ECL 10/30 Cup hdl 49.01 -0.63 49.11 56.55 410K 1M 48.15
Current. Testing the 10 day MVA on rising though still below average volume.
ESRX 12/18 Put 47.92 -0.8 48.02 44 967K 1.5M 49.05
Current. Tapped at the 18 day MVA on the high and rolled back over. On a further fall below 48 it is still a buy.
FLML 12/05 Test BO 4.2 +0.01 4.05 5.97 31K 100K 4.05
Current. Big test lower and then recovery on some rising volume. It needs to break over 4.30 early this week to break up the short term bearish pattern.
FOX 11/05 Cup hdl 25.34 -0.66 27.15 32.45 900K 1.5M 25.25
Current. Sold to the 50 day MVA. Giving it a chance to recovery here but won't let it close lower.
GRMN 11/06 Cup hdl 29.78 -0.03 22.34 31 195K 198K 28.05
Current. Very nice, orderly pullback after the big move.
HLTH 12/12 Cup hdl 8.5 -0.1 8.85 11.35 639K 3.1M 8.23
Buy Not Hit. Still working in the wedge, testing the 18 day MVA Friday.
HOTT 11/23 A Wedge 23.09 -0.16 23.9 28 470K 1.5M 22.45
Current. Dropped to the 50 day MVA early in the week and rebounded, but is stalling at the short term MVA (23.50) in the retail lethargy.
JBHT 12/12 A Wedge 29.07 -0.5 30.18 35.25 242K 725K 28.07
Buy Not Hit. Still working laterally above the 18 day MVA, but got a bit volatile Friday. Needs to settle down and provide the breakout.
LBIX 10/14 Cup hdl 2.75 -0.43 3.22 4.35 191K 145K 3.32
Current. Suddenly dumped Friday, testing the 200 day MVA on the low and rebounding. Will see if it can recovery this wee back over the 50 day MVA.
LMLP 12/07 Cup hdl 13.58 +0.05 10.75 12.96 73K 135K 12.25
Buy Not Issued. Still working in the flying plateau following its big breakout. Very good action, but will need the next move soon.
LMLP 11/23 Cup hdl 13.58 +0.05 9.75 14.25 73K 135K 12.97
Current.
LOOK 12/22 Cup hdl 2.49 -0.14 2.94 4.95 600K 950K 2.58
Buy Not Hit. Still in the handle.
LOW 07/06 Test 50 36.8 -0.52 0 0 2.2M 0 0
MDCO 12/05 Test BO 15.75 -0.4 17.05 20.55 272K 800K 15.35
Buy Not Hit. Trying to work laterally still in a breakout test, but struggling.
MLHR 12/28 Put 18.15 -0.26 17.94 15.85 166K 425K 19.05
New.
MRK 12/21 Test 50 56 -0.94 58.05 67 3.1M 9.5M 55.94
Buy Not Hit.
MRK 12/07 Test BO 56 -0.94 59.15 67 3.1M 9.5M 55.94
Current. Turned and dropped to the 50 day MVA in a tougher day for drugs.
MSFT 12/04 Test 18 52.97 -0.42 56.61 62.75 21M 67M 54.45
Current. Continues to work laterally in the recent range. That is about the best you can say for it.
MVL 11/04 BO 8.64 -0.16 8.74 10.75 50K 400K 8.35
Current. MVL is getting to our patience. After a good original move it is now in the midst of a month-long lateral move that is forming another handle to the cup. The action remains positive so we will give it some time.
NOC 07/06 Test 50 97.92 -0.07 0 0 841K 1.7M 0
NTES 12/19 Test BO 11.42 -0.93 12 14.45 743K 550K 11.12
Current. Testing the 10 day MVA after the strong move. Volume a bit higher than we would like, but a strong sector.
NXTL 11/19 Test BO 12.07 -0.53 13.05 16.15 12M 35M 11.78
Current. Struggled Friday, falling to the 50 day MVA on rising, though slightly higher volume. Needs to hold here.
OSTK 11/16 Cup hdl 13.2 -0.6 10.65 16.05 161K 125K 13.05
Current. Still struggling even after the great jump in sales this holiday season. Hanging on by a thread.
OSTK 11/16 Test BO 13.2 -0.6 14.48 18 161K 125K 13.05
Current.
OVER 12/26 Cup hdl 28.61 -0.36 30.05 36 499K 2.5M 27.95
Buy Not Hit. Still in the handle, showing a doji at the 18 day MVA on low volume.
PENN 12/14 Put 15.13 -0.2 16.55 14 332K 300K 17.65
Current. Tested down to 14.61, but rebounded to close over 15. That is the next important level to break.
PG 09/21 Test 18 86.55 -0.88 91.55 103 1.7M 5.5M 89.45
PIXR 11/20 BO 53.29 -2.93 57.85 66 915K 775K 57.65
Exited.
PPD 11/14 Test BO 26.36 -0.57 25.51 30.55 223K 450K 26.25
Current. Big picture, PPD is in a handle to its 10-month base. Near term it is getting close to an important support level at 26 that it needs to hold.
PRA 12/11 Cup hdl 21.02 -0.02 20.26 24.32 107K 145K 19.05
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA on the low and rebounded.
QCOM 12/21 Test 50 37.27 -0.8 39.15 48 6.5M 18M 36.41
Buy Not Hit.
QCOM 12/04 Test 18 37.27 -0.8 40.85 50 6.5M 18M 37.99
Current. Holding the 50 day MVA on low volume as it continues to hold over support at the late October high.
QCOM 11/07 Test BO 37.27 -0.8 34.78 42 6.5M 18M 38.14
Current.
QLGC 11/07 Test BO 36.87 -0.4 41.4 50 4.9M 25M 39.88
QLGC 08/17 CCall 36.87 -0.4 36.48 0 4.9M 12M 37
Current. Still hovering around the 50 day MVA.
RCII 08/24 Test 18 51.76 +0.05 58.02 66.45 723K 701K 53.96
RIMM 12/22 Put 13.11 -0.2 12.94 9.95 315K 1.7M 14.04
Buy Not Issued. Still hovering over 13, the important breakdown point, but still unable to break and hold over the 50 day MVA.
ROIAK 12/28 Rolling 13.95 -0.08 14.55 17.49 234K 650K 13.53
New.
ROK 12/14 Cup hdl 20.06 -0.54 21.89 26.25 494K 1M 19.95
Current. Thudded down to support at 20. Critical it holds here.
SFNT 12/16 Test 50 24.6 -0.84 26.7 32.45 85K 188K 24.25
Current. Could not hold the 18 day MVA Friday, but managed to bounce off the low at support at 24.
SFNT 11/06 Cup hdl 24.6 -0.84 20.78 25 85K 188K 25.45
Current.
SINA 12/04 Test BO 6.67 -0.58 5.58 7.21 1.6M 950K 6.48
Current. Testing the strong surge higher though gave back more than we would want in a single session to start the pullback to test 6.25.
SRCL 10/19 Cup 31.48 -0.25 35.25 40 166K 787K 32.78
STK 12/26 Cup hdl 21.28 +0.06 23.21 27.88 362K 1.2M 21.59
Buy Not Hit. Very tight trading range right on top of the 18 day MVA as it still works in the handle.
TSCO 10/16 Test BO 37.61 +0.65 39.05 46.85 292K 235K 42.05
Current. Continues its recover but volume backed off Friday. The real test will be at 40 when it gets back to the 50 day MVA.
UNTD 11/30 Test BO 16.19 -0.11 16.25 19.65 313K 1M 15.55
Current. Very nice test of the 18 day MVA from this leader.
UNTD 11/02 Cup hdl 16.19 -0.11 13.3 16 313K 1M 15.55
Current.
UPL 10/19 A Wedge 9.6 +0.1 9.68 11.75 126K 345K 9.35
Current. Holding the 18 day MVA on low, below average volume.
USAI 12/28 H&S 22.01 -1.36 21.88 19.25 2.1M 4.5M 22.55
New.
UTHR 11/12 DB hdl 17.08 -0.17 17.65 21.45 74K 295K 16.21
Current. Still working in the tight, lateral move along the 18 day MVA. Needs to make a move soon, but would not be surprised to see a quick shakeout test down to 16.50 or so and then a recovery.
UTIW 12/17 Rv H&S 26.18 0 24.56 29 79K 175K 24.85
Current. Taking a breather after the solid move higher.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 16.58 -0.49 19.76 20 3.4M 8.5M 17.45
Current.
WM 07/06 Cup 34.65 -0.53 0 0 1.5M 5.5M 0
XTO 12/18 Flat 25 -0.54 25.65 30.75 544K 1.1M 24.85
Current. Running into trouble, falling to the 18 day MVA over the past two sessions even as oil prices rise. Oil stocks are weaker even as prices rise, indicating the news has been priced in. Need to be careful here. No point in letting it fall further as it tends to hold the 18 day MVA unless it is ready for a 50 day MVA test (now just below 24).
YHOO 12/11 Test 50 16.58 -0.37 17.32 22.75 4.6M 20M 16.11
Current. Testing the simple 50 day MVA on very low volume as e-tail came under pressure late in the week.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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