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Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers.
NEW PLAYS: Splitting stocks are often market leaders and thus we do not just focus on them at points where they are expected to announce or before they actually split. They provide many opportunities to invest in them and this section is where we can look at some former split stocks and other stocks that are in good position to make us money. In addition, there are emerging trends in the recent move off of the double bottom, and we want to capture those stocks emerging from the obscurity as well.
Upside:
AGU (Agrium--$11.35; +0.36; optionable): Agricultural chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/agu.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After breaking out AGU has moved laterally the past month in a trading range from 11 to 11.42. During the base the accumulation was 6 up weeks on rising volume to 4 down weeks on rising volume. A very good trading range; the accumulation in the last part of the base and this range is 6 weeks to 1 week. Monday AGU was up on an impressive volume surge after showing some rising above average volume Friday. Looks ready for a good breakout.
Volume: 395.3K Avg Volume: 237.727K
BUY POINT: $11.55 Volume=357K Target=$13.85 Stop=$10.74
POSITION: AGU DB - April $10c (70 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/agu.html
CURE (Curative Health--$17.4; +0.47; no options): Specialized health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cure.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Working through a 5-month base showing outstanding accumulation at 8 up weeks on rising volume (accumulation) to just 3 down weeks on rising volume (distribution). CURE ran up to the pre-correction high at 18 last week and then started this lower volume pullback. Friday it tested the 10 day MVA (16.58) on the low. Monday it rebounded on rising volume. There is some hefty accumulation ongoing.
Volume: 185.721K Avg Volume: 117.045K
BUY POINT: $18.22 Volume=176K Target=$21.85 Stop=$17.74
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cure.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Upside:
Play Date: 12/19/2002
ESPD (Espeed Inc.--$16.92; +0.02; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/espd.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. Nice test of the 18 day MVA Monday, reaching below it on the low (16.32) and rebounding. Looks ready for the next move as it has held up very well even in this market.
Volume: 237.686K Avg Volume: 477.045K
BUY POINT: $17.81 Volume=675K Target=$21.45 Stop=$16.11
POSITION: ENU EC - May $15c (73 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/espd.html
Downside:
Play Date: 12/18/2002
ESRX (Express Scripts--$48.53; +0.61; optionable): Mail order prescriptions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esrx.html
STATUS: Continuing downtrend. Managed to recover and test the 18 day MVA on the high (48.74) but on much lower volume. The short term MVA should continue to act as resistance in the downtrend. On a break below 48 on rising volume new positions can be taken.
Volume: 642.486K Avg Volume: 1.738M
BUY POINT: New: $47.94 (orig. $48.02) Volume=1.5M Target=$44 Stop=$49.05
POSITION: XTO NJ - Feb. $50p (-51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/esrx.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 12/21/2002
SYK (Stryker--$66.79; +1.22; optionable): Medical supplies and instruments. Forecast to announce a split early 2003. We are still pinpointing a date.
Background: Last announced a 2:1 split in March 2003 at a price of $65.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/syk.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. SYK looks ready for the new high, rising close to the breakout Monday on rising volume. Accumulation is solid as is money flow. Looks ready.
Volume: 436.2K Avg Volume: 751.954K
BUY POINT: $67.53 Volume=1.2M Target=$77.62 Stop=$62.84
POSITION: SYK FM - June $65c (70 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/syk.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 12/28/2002
APOL (Apollo Group--$44.74; +0.49; optionable): Education and training
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apol.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume rose as APOL tested the 10 day MVA on the low and rebounded for a gain. Looks super in the base that shows accumulation at 5 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume. Looking for a strong volume breakout to enter positions.
Volume: 1.255M Avg Volume: 2.382M
BUY POINT: $45.61 Volume=3.5M Target=$54.75 Stop=$42.42
POSITION: OAQ EI - May $45c (55 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/apol.html
Play Date: 11/13/2002
COLM (Columbia Sportswear--$44.6; +1.14; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/colm.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. Started up off the 50 day MVA Monday on a continued surge in above average volume. This is exactly what we were looking for in this test of the 50 day after the solid run up the short term MVA. Now we just let it make the move over the short term MVA where COLM hit on its Monday high (44.86).
Volume: 532.543K Avg Volume: 335K
BUY POINT: New: $45.05 (orig. $41.96) Volume=389K Target=$48.45 Stop=$44.25
POSITION: TQQ DH - April $40c (60 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/colm.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
$SOX 12/07 Test 50 289.91 -6.58 335.15 385 0 0 313.94
Current.
ACS 12/21 DB hdl 52.46 +0.73 52.05 60 936K 2.4M 49.45
Current.
AGU 12/30 A Wedge 11.35 +0.36 11.55 13.85 395K 357K 10.74
New.
AIG 12/18 Put 57.41 +0.73 58.55 54 5.1M 7M 59.15
Current.
ALN 12/07 Test BO 9.2 -0.49 9.86 11.85 151K 412K 9.17
ALN 11/09 Test BO 9.2 -0.49 7.28 9.75 151K 200K 9.25
Current.
AME 12/05 DB hdl 37.42 +0.48 38.71 46.45 185K 225K 36
Buy Not Hit.
AMZN 10/21 Cup hdl 19.25 +0.39 20.32 24.38 8.3M 10M 21.75
Current.
ANT 12/11 Put 24.01 -0.54 22.45 20 238K 200K 23.55
Current.
APOL 12/28 Cup hdl 44.74 +0.49 45.61 54.75 1.3M 3.5M 42.42
Buy Not Hit.
ASKJ 12/26 Cup hdl 2.47 +0.01 2.89 3.88 136K 305K 2.44
Buy Not Hit.
ATRS 12/30 BO 15.78 +1.66 14.81 18 538K 200K 13.77
Current.
ATRS 11/23 A Wedge 15.78 +1.66 14.05 18 538K 200K 13.07
Current.
AVCT 12/28 Test 50 21.87 -0.22 23.08 27 247K 750K 21.46
Buy Not Hit.
BCGI 12/19 Test 50 13.3 +0.05 13.75 16.55 239K 250K 12.65
Buy Not Issued.
BRCM 08/17 CCall 15.25 -0.67 19.2 19.8 6.1M 9M 17.25
Current.
BSTE 12/11 A Wedge 35 +0.52 34 41.25 301K 900K 33.22
Current.
BSX 10/19 Test BO 42.34 +0.26 37.75 45.75 2.1M 3.3M 41.94
Current.
BWS 12/17 Cup hdl 23.83 -1.42 26.35 31.65 358K 165K 24.33
Exited.
BYS 11/18 Test BO 26.11 +0.03 25.45 30.45 12K 194K 25.65
Current.
COLM 11/13 DB hdl 44.6 +1.14 41.96 48.45 547K 389K 44.25
Current.
CURE 12/30 Cup hdl 17.4 +0.47 18.22 21.85 186K 176K 17.74
New.
CVD 12/21 Cup hdl 24.1 -0.53 24.75 29.74 429K 581K 22.88
Buy Not Hit.
CVD 11/05 Test BO 24.1 -0.53 23.65 28 429K 581K 23.35
Current.
ESPD 12/19 Test BO 16.92 +0.02 17.81 21.45 238K 675K 16.11
Buy Not Issued.
ESRX 12/18 Put 48.53 +0.61 48.02 44 642K 1.5M 49.05
Current.
EXPD 11/09 Cup hdl 33.09 +0.28 32.08 38 513K 750K 32.45
Current.
EXPE 11/30 A Wedge 66.81 +1.88 78.25 88 1.6M 3.2M 72.77
Current.
FAST 12/14 Cup hdl 37.45 -0.12 38.55 43 479K 995K 36.45
Current.
FIC 12/26 DB hdl 42.21 +0.43 44.51 48 276K 575K 40.55
Buy Not Hit.
FNF 11/26 Test BO 33.3 +0.46 33.25 38.25 421K 875K 30.92
Buy Not Hit.
FRX 10/29 Test BO 98.6 +0.8 99.55 115 1.2M 3.1M 103
GENZ 11/30 Test BO 29.74 -0.26 35.15 41.94 1.6M 5.2M 31.21
Exited.
GG 09/19 Cup hdl 12.6 -0.49 11.98 14.45 2.3M 2.4M 11.97
Current.
GTK 10/31 Cup hdl 28.41 -0.72 26.15 30 571K 900K 28.04
Current.
HSIC 12/09 Put 45.64 +0.83 44.15 40 404K 667K 46.05
Buy Not Issued.
HTLD 12/28 Cup hdl 22.57 -0.08 23.28 27.94 104K 240K 22.05
Buy Not Hit.
IDXC 12/02 Cup hdl 17.6 0 17.65 21.25 191K 163K 16.85
Current.
IGEN 12/19 Test BO 42.92 -0.64 43.05 49.55 255K 450K 42.05
Current.
IGEN 11/16 DB hdl 42.92 -0.64 38.81 45 255K 300K 41.75
Current.
INFY 12/21 Test BO 69.98 -1.37 76.05 92 74K 165K 71.35
Buy Not Hit.
LBIX 10/14 Cup hdl 2.6 -0.15 3.22 4.35 166K 145K 3.32
Current.
LSTR 12/19 A Wedge 57.86 +0.55 56.42 62.42 107K 220K 56
Current.
LXK 10/29 Cup hdl 59.91 -0.74 61 72 980K 2.2M 62.48
Exited.
MATK 12/04 Test BO 24.31 -1.24 23.39 27.94 372K 300K 24
Current.
MLHR 12/28 Put 18.28 +0.13 17.94 15.85 191K 425K 19.05
Current.
MRK 12/21 Test 50 56.81 +0.81 58.05 67 4.9M 9.5M 55.94
Buy Not Hit.
MRK 12/07 Test BO 56.81 +0.81 59.15 67 4.9M 9.5M 55.94
Current.
MSFT 12/04 Test 18 52.75 -0.22 56.61 62.75 24M 67M 54.45
NBIX 10/08 Rv H&S 46.15 -1.1 44.85 51.75 420K 1.1M 45.45
Current.
NTAI 12/10 Test BO 24.16 -0.66 24.85 28.75 64K 175K 24.25
Exited.
NTII 12/22 Test BO 5.75 -0.17 6.74 8.25 98K 90K 6.18
Buy Not Hit.
NXTL 11/19 Test BO 11.68 -0.39 13.05 16.15 16M 35M 11.78
Exited.
NXTL 11/12 Test 50 11.68 -0.39 12.15 16.15 16M 4.5M 11.78
Exited.
PENN 12/14 Put 15.83 +0.7 16.55 14 440K 300K 17.65
Current.
PIXR 11/20 BO 52.58 -0.71 57.85 66 778K 775K 57.65
Exited.
PNRA 11/07 Cup hdl 35.11 -0.2 34.38 39.75 375K 1.2M 34.12
Current.
PPD 11/14 Test BO 26.18 -0.18 25.51 30.55 409K 450K 26.25
Current.
PSUN 12/05 BO 26.64 0 28.05 33 909K 1.5M 25.95
Current.
QCOM 12/21 Test 50 36.8 -0.47 39.15 48 8.9M 18M 36.41
Buy Not Hit.
QCOM 12/04 Test 18 36.8 -0.47 40.85 50 8.9M 18M 37.99
Current.
QCOM 11/07 Test BO 36.8 -0.47 34.78 42 8.9M 18M 38.14
Current.
QLGC 11/07 Test BO 35.03 -1.83 41.4 50 9.6M 25M 39.88
QSII 12/17 Test BO 20.1 -2.18 23.55 28 71K 55K 22.35
Buy Not Hit.
RHD 11/30 Cup hdl 29.34 +0.73 30.17 25.94 177K 267K 28.06
Buy Not Hit.
ROST 12/12 Test 50 41.9 +0.91 45.85 52.75 909K 1.6M 42.64
Buy Not Hit.
SCIO 12/03 Cup hdl 32.6 -0.42 33.05 39.65 513K 1.6M 30.74
Buy Not Issued.
SFNT 12/16 Test 50 23.93 -0.66 26.7 32.45 155K 188K 24.25
Exited.
SINA 12/04 Test BO 6.23 -0.44 5.58 7.21 1.9M 950K 6.48
Current.
SYK 12/21 Rv H&S 66.79 +1.22 67.53 77.62 436K 1.2M 62.84
Buy Not Hit.
TEVA 11/09 Test BO 37.32 +0.75 36.85 42.51 2.1M 1.8M 37.35
Exited.
TSCO 10/16 Test BO 38.5 +0.89 39.05 46.85 407K 235K 42.05
Current.
UNTD 11/30 Test BO 15.65 -0.54 16.25 19.65 458K 1M 15.55
Current.
UOPX 12/07 Test BO 35.96 +0.52 36.74 42 119K 278K 34.17
Current.
URBN 12/22 Put 22.7 +0.03 23.36 20.22 275K 500K 24.65
Current.
VAR 12/18 Rv H&S 49.56 +0.43 50.25 58 447K 700K 48.05
Current.
VOXX 12/26 Test 18 10.25 -0.52 11.35 13.75 94K 131K 10.56
Buy Not Hit.
VRNT 11/23 Cup hdl 20.55 -0.56 15.85 21.55 346K 113K 19.94
Current.
VSAT 12/17 Test 18 11.85 -0.45 12.26 15.45 188K 320K 11.35
Buy Not Issued.
WERN 11/30 Cup hdl 21.39 -0.28 22.75 27.35 444K 550K 21.16
Buy Not Hit.
WFMI 12/14 Test BO 53.21 +0.31 53.65 64 625K 975K 52.05
Current.
WFMI 10/28 Cup hdl 53.21 +0.31 50.11 57.51 625K 975K 52.05
Current.
WFR 11/14 Cup hdl 7.88 -0.11 8.45 11 137K 325K 8.12
Exited.
WGO 12/28 Put 39.6 -0.4 39.49 36 299K 270K 41
Current.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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