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us stock market, stock split
Begin Part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS:
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers.
NEW PLAYS: Splitting stocks are often market leaders and thus we do not just focus on them at points where they are expected to announce or before they actually split. They provide many opportunities to invest in them and this section is where we can look at some former split stocks and other stocks that are in good position to make us money. In addition, there are emerging trends in the recent move off of the double bottom, and we want to capture those stocks emerging from the obscurity as well.
Upside:
SYMC (Symantec--$42.68; +2.17; optionable): Internet security software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/symc.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. SYMC was an early leader in the rally, and it has spent the past 5 weeks testing back to the 50 day MVA (40.85), consolidating the strong move off the September low. It tapped the 50 day in early December, bounced, and has now come back to tap it again. This looks like a neat little double bottom that is forming in quite a few leaders, and we want to use this pattern on the 50 day MVA test to take some positions in what has been a strong stock in this rally.
Volume: 3.026M Avg Volume: 3.622M
BUY POINT: $43.05 Volume=4.1M Target=$51 Stop=$40.04
POSITION: SYQ DH - April $40c (79 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/symc.html
New Post-Splits:
Play Date: 01/02/2003
COH (Coach--$33.73; +0.81; optionable): High-end handbags, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coh.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. Retailers enjoyed a better day after the holiday gloom period, and COH is one of the retailers that did not sell that much during that period. Indeed, COH managed to hold the 50 day MVA (31.63) during that time, forming the current small cup that is holding well above the prior breakout in October. COH continues to show solid accumulation at 7 accumulation weeks to just 3 distribution weeks since May. Looking for another break higher on volume from COH for positions. Volume was very solid the past two sessions.
Volume: 975.1K Avg Volume: 887.363K
BUY POINT: $34.11 Volume=1.3M Target=$40.94 Stop=$31.72
POSITION: COH EF - May $30c (73 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coh.html
Play Date: 01/02/2003
PFCB (PF Changs--$38.28; +1.98; optionable): Restaurants
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pfcb.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout. PFCB split back in May and shortly thereafter started the current base. After testing the 50 day MVA just below 35 PFCB moved up the 50 day, finally pulling back to test the short term MVA early this week. Thursday PFCB broke out on some impressive volume. It may come back to test the November high at 37.31, but this was the first day of the breakout move and we are looking at positions on a further move from here.
Volume: 1.625M Avg Volume: 579.909K
BUY POINT: $38.48 Volume=870K Target=$44.25 Stop=$35.79
POSITION: HUO DG - April $35c (74 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pfcb.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Upside:
Play Date: 12/26/2002
ASKJ (Ask Jeeves--$2.69; +0.13; no options): Internet service
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/askj.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Solid move Thursday on strong, above average volume as ASKJ is preparing for the breakout. Solid accumulation backing the move, now we just wait for the breakout.
Volume: 461.694K Avg Volume: 202.363K
BUY POINT: $2.89 Volume=305K Target=$3.88 Stop=$2.44
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/askj.html
Play Date: 12/28/2002
AVCT (Avocent--$23.99; +1.77; optionable): Computer peripherals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avct.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Strong move Thursday on rising though still below average volume. It was enough to start a position but we would like to see more volume on the next move. Accumulation is solid at 11 accumulation weeks to just 4 distribution weeks in the base. Again, we like the play as AVCT can give us a very nice move and lock us in a nice gain without even having to move over the high in the pattern.
Volume: 506.743K Avg Volume: 523.5K
BUY POINT: $23.08 Volume=750K Target=$27 Stop=$21.46
POSITION: QVX ED - May $20c (68 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/avct.html
Play Date: 11/13/2002
COLM (Columbia Sportswear--$46.18; +1.76; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/colm.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. COLM has successfully tested the 50 day MVA, running higher Thursday on the solid economic news as volume raced higher. Very nice move and still a buy.
Volume: 585.356K Avg Volume: 348.227K
BUY POINT: New: $46.55 (orig. $41.96) Volume=389K Target=$48.45 Stop=$44.25
POSITION: TQQ DH - April $40c (60 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/colm.html
Play Date: 12/30/2002
CURE (Curative Health--$17.25; 0; no options): Health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cure.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working in the handle of the base, showing a big doji Thursday that recovered from a test of the 18 day MVA on the low (16.50). Volume remained above average on the move. Outstanding accumulation at 8 up weeks on rising volume (accumulation) to just 3 down weeks on rising volume (distribution).
Volume: 190.964K Avg Volume: 122.181K
BUY POINT: $18.22 Volume=176K Target=$21.85 Stop=$17.74
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cure.html
Play Date: 12/19/2002
ESPD (Espeed Inc.--$17.68; +0.74; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/espd.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Jumped off of the 18 day MVA (16.85) Thursday though volume was lower. Looks ready to make a move but needs more volume on the way up. Excellent accumulation at 10 accumulation weeks to 4 distribution weeks. Money flow continues to move up ahead of the stock as relative strength has broken out.
Volume: 330.431K Avg Volume: 480.454K
BUY POINT: $17.45 Volume=675K Target=$21.45 Stop=$16.03
POSITION: ENU EC - May $15c (73 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/espd.html
Play Date: 12/03/2002
SCIO (Scios--$33.47; +0.89; optionable): Wholesale drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/scio.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. SCIO broke out in late November, but never garnered much volume as it did. Could not clear 34, and has now moved back to test the 18 day MVA (32.75) and rallied Thursday on rising though still below average volume. A solid performer that refused to sell off during the recent selling, SCIO is ready for a new high on a move over 34.
Volume: 591.352K Avg Volume: 904.363K
BUY POINT: New: 34.45 (orig. $33.05). Volume=1.6M Target=$39.65 Stop=$30.74
POSITION: UIO EF - May $30c (67 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/scio.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 10/19/2002
BSX (Boston Scientific--$42.99; +0.47; optionable): Medial supplies. Forecast to announce a split on 2-4-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the announcement
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 8-27-98 at a stock price of $40. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-7-02. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bsx.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. BSX broke to a new high at 44 last week, but the selling has pushed it back down to test that move. Thursday it reached down below support at 42, but held and rallied back positive on a surge in volume. Looks ready to move up now that it has shaken out the recent move up the 18 day MVA.
Volume: 3.022M Avg Volume: 2.448M
BUY POINT: New: 43.75 (orig. 44.05; $37.75) Volume=3.3M Target=Initial $45.75 Stop=$40.55
POSITION: Stock for now.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bsx.html
Play Date: 11/30/2002
EXPE (Expedia--$70.66; +3.73; optionable): Online travel. Forecast to announce a split on 1-26-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that EXPE has ever split its stock. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/expe.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. After testing the move and our patience, EXPE jumped off the 50 day MVA (66) Thursday on a large, above average volume spike. Money flow has held up well during this entire pullback, and it started up sharply this week. Looks ready for more and we are looking at some aggressive positions.
Volume: 3.061M Avg Volume: 2.542M
BUY POINT: 72.50; Breakout: $78.25 Volume=3.2M Target=$88 Stop=$72.77
POSITION: UED DO - April $75c (61 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/expe.html
Play Date: 12/12/2002
ROST (Ross Stores--$43.23; +0.84; optionable): Apparel stores. Forecast to announce a split on 3-19-03 in conjunction with earnings. At this time the company cannot confirm a time for the release.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rost.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 8-26-99 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $43.30. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-23-02 at which time authorized shares were increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Turned into a breakdown, but ROST held the 200 day MVA at 40 Monday, and started back up on rising volume. It came close to breaking the 50 day MVA on the Thursday high (43.63) Thursday and that would be a start. It has a lot of near resistance and needs to clear 45.70 for us to look at new positions. Accumulation is positive during the base at 7 up weeks on rising volume to 6 down weeks on rising volume.
Volume: 1.376M Avg Volume: 1.165M
BUY POINT: $45.85 Volume=1.6M Target=$52.75 Stop=$42.64
POSITION: REQ EV - May $42.50c (66 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rost.html
Play Date: 12/21/2002
SYK (Stryker--$68.02; +0.9; optionable): Medical supplies and instruments. Forecast to announce a split early 2003. We are still pinpointing a date.
Background: Last announced a 2:1 split in March 2003 at a price of $65.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/syk.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Solid volume move Thursday to a new high. Volume moved above average as money flow continues to surge higher off of the good accumulation at 3 accumulation weeks to 1 distribution week.
Volume: 856.8K Avg Volume: 775K
BUY POINT: New: Still a buy at this point up to 68.50 (orig. $67.53). Volume=1.2M Target=$77.62 Stop=$62.84
POSITION: SYK FM - June $65c (70 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/syk.html
Play Date: 10/28/2002
WFMI (Whole Foods Market--$53.94; +1.21; optionable): Health food grocery. Forecast to announce a split on 2-12-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the announcement.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 5-10-01 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $50.40. The annual shareholder meeting was on 3-25-02 at which time authorized shares were increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfmi.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After moving down to the 18 day MVA (52.50) Tuesday, WFMI surged higher Thursday on rising, above average volume. Very solid move from one of the market leaders.
Volume: 1.023M Avg Volume: 740.727K
BUY POINT: New: 54.05 (orig. $50.11) Volume=975K Target=Initial $57.51 Stop=$49.94
POSITION: FMQ BI - Feb. $45c (64 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wfmi.html
PRE-SPLIT
Play Date: 10/29/2002
FRX (Forest Labs--$100; +1.78; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/frx.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. FRX announced after hours that earnings would beat the already raised earnings by 15%. It was up another $4 after hours. It will gap higher tomorrow and will be difficult to enter. We are going to look for the first pullback to move in after such a strong move. That may come Friday, it may come next week.
Volume: 1.277M Avg Volume: 2.076M
BUY POINT: Pullback after gap higher. Volume=3.1M Target=$115 Stop=$98
POSITION: FHA BS - Feb. $95c (63 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/frx.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 12/14/2002
FAST (Fastenal Company--$38.77; +1.38; optionable): Home improvement
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fast.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A great handle that pulled back to test the 200 day MVA (36.65) this week, FAST started jumped off the 200 day Thursday on rising, above average volume. It may be stymied some early by HD lowering its fiscal 2003 guidance, but looks ready to breakout of the handle. We can sit back and let it do that and then move in.
Volume: 1.387M Avg Volume: 767.272K
BUY POINT: $39.48 Volume=995K Target=$43 Stop=$36.45
POSITION: FQA EG - may $35c (68 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fast.html
Play Date: 12/05/2002
PSUN (Pacific Sunwear--$18.73; +1.04; optionable): Pacific Sunwear. Split 3:2 on 12-31-02
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/psun.html
STATUS: After a quick test of the 50 day MVA down at 17, PSUN raced up on the good retail news, moving over the short term MVA Thursday as volume remained above average for the second straight session. Looks solid post split, and looking at new positions on a move over the early December high.
Volume: 967.5K Avg Volume: 980K
BUY POINT: 18.85 Volume=1.5M Target=$22 Stop=$17.30
POSITION: PVK FW - June $17.50c (65 delta, low OI) and/or stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/psun.html
Play Date: 12/07/2002
UOPX (University of Phoenix Online--$37.3; +1.46; optionable): Online education
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uopx.html
STATUS: 18 day MVA test. Starting the move off the 18 day MVA (35.60), UOPX tested that level on the Thursday low and rallied higher on some rising though still below average volume. The pattern has morphed into something of an ascending wedge and UOPX is ready for a new high here.
Volume: 180.53K Avg Volume: 235K
BUY POINT: New: 38.05 (orig. $36.74) Volume=278K Target=$42 Stop=$34.17
POSITION: UBY CF - June $35c (56 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/uopx.html
Play Date: 11/30/2002
WERN (Werner Enterprises--$21.73; +0.2; optionable): Trucking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wern.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Still in the 11-month base, testing the 50 day MVA early in the week (21.20). Thursday WERN moved up, but it was not a strong move. It managed to clear the short term MVA, showing a doji right over that level as volume remained above average though lower on the session. This is a solid base with strong accumulation and money flow. Looking for the strong volume move.
Volume: 385.297K Avg Volume: 365.136K
BUY POINT: $22.75 Volume=550K Target=$27.35 Stop=$21.16
POSITION: QEH ED - May $20c (74 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wern.html
End Part 2 of 3
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us stock market
stock split
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