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stock recommendation, stock option
Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Thursday Plays:
BEAS: Starting the move off the 18 day MVA on rising volume.
ROIAK: Went nowhere Thursday.
LMLP: Still moving laterally.
UPL: Trying to make the breakout move.
New Plays:
COGN (Cognos--$23.99; +0.54; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cogn.html
STATUS: Cup. COGN is working through a 10-month cup and has formed this short double bottom over the past 5 weeks using the 50 day MVA just over 22 as its support. Accumulation in the pattern is solid at 10 accumulation weeks to just 7 distribution weeks as money flow is strong and already turning up ahead of the stock price. COGN looks ready to give a breakout over near resistance and then move at least to its prior high. That moves provides a nice return in itself.
Volume: 875.657K Avg Volume: 1.031M
BUY POINT: $25.11 Volume=1.5M Target=$30.24 Stop=$23.35
POSITION: CRQ EY - MAY $25c (71 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cogn.html
BBBY (Bed, Bath & Beyond--$36.21; +1.68; optionable): Home furnishings
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bbby.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Working through a current 9-week base showing solid accumulation at 6 accumulation weeks to 4 distribution weeks, BBBY started up Thursday on a strong, above average volume move that can technically be called a breakout. We have been watching BBBY, waiting for the good economic news to come back. It has and BBBY is moving well. This is one that we feel is one of the core retail holdings these days and are looking at positions here.
Volume: 4.835M Avg Volume: 3.802M
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 36.45. Breakout: $37.55 Volume=5.7M Target=$45 Stop=$34.92
POSITION: BHQ EG - May $35c (61 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/bbby.html
Revisited:
Play Date: 12/30/2002
EUNI (Euniverse--$6.14; +0.46; no options): Internet information provider
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/euni.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Strong money flow is leading the way higher as EUNI is on the verge of a breakout from its 6-month base. Relative strength is already breaking out ahead of price, a very bullish sign.
Volume: 140.794K Avg Volume: 139.136K
BUY POINT: $6.33 Volume=204K Target=$7.88 Stop=$5.68
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/euni.html
Play Date: 12/26/2002
STK (Storage Technology--$22.37; +0.95; optionable): Data storage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stk.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. One of the strong tech sectors as data storage is always needed (though it has its ups and downs of course). STK is still in the handle to its 8.5 month base, but volume moved up Thursday as STK started higher as well, approachign the breakout point. Money flow is super and it looks as if STK is ready to make a breakout.
Volume: 762.5K Avg Volume: 737.772K
BUY POINT: $23.21 Volume=1.2M Target=$27.88 Stop=$21.59
POSITION: STK FD - June $20c (72 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/stk.html
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: CUB, EBAY, HOTT; LOW, NOC, PG, QLGC, RCII, SRCL, WM
These are the stocks that our subscribers vote to put in a 'portfolio' to track their progress and comment upon when they reach buy points, sell points, or levels to write some covered calls on. They are not covered every report, but when something interesting is developing we take note.
Putting together the last of the votes. If you have not voted for our favorite stocks, please do so before the weekend!
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
RCII 08/24 Test 18 52.1 +2.15 58.02 66.45 306K 701K 53.96
RCII is banging its head against the 200 day MVA, and looks ready to make a move through it. It tested back to support at 50 and did not back down. Looks as if it is ready for the next move higher up in the base.
CONTINUING/WATCHLIST: These are stocks that are current plays (the buy point hit), waiting for the buy point to be hit (buy not hit), or buy not made for various reasons (buy alert not issued). The date references the date the play first appeared on the report. Pivot is the buy point.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
$SOX 12/07 Test 50 308.56 +19.32 335.15 385 0 0 313.94
Current. Gave the bounce we thought it would, but is now at the 50 day MVA. Needs to power through 320.
AGU 12/30 A Wedge 11.4 +0.09 11.55 13.85 164K 357K 10.74
Buy not hit.
AIG 12/18 Put 60.3 +2.45 58.55 54 6.3M 7M 59.15
Current. Jumped up over the 18 day MVA on some solid volume. Will see if it turns back down to continue the downtrend Friday. If not we will exit.
ALN 12/07 Test BO 10.1 +0.63 9.86 11.85 168K 412K 9.17
ALN 11/09 Test BO 10.1 +0.63 7.28 9.75 168K 200K 9.25
Current. Nice comeback from the 18 day MVA, returning to the high though on low volume.
AMZN 10/21 Cup hdl 19.57 +0.68 20.32 24.38 6.5M 10M 21.75
Current. Trying to make the comeback, rising on higher though still below average volume.
ANT 12/11 Put 25 +1 22.45 20 135K 200K 23.55
Current. Low volume jump Thursday, but the move kept it above support. If no weakness Friday we will have to close it.
AVID 12/07 Test 18 23.2 +0.25 21 25 426K 500K 20.15
Current. Trying to start the move to a new high.
AVID 10/30 Cup hdl 23.2 +0.25 15.65 25 426K 177K 20.15
Current.
BBBY 01/02 Cup 36.21 +1.68 37.55 45 4.8M 5.7M 34.92
New.
BCGI 12/19 Test 50 12.1 -0.61 13.75 16.55 454K 250K 12.65
Buy Not Issued. Not doing it.
BEAS 12/19 Test BO 11.95 +0.48 11.77 14.74 6.7M 16M 10.94
Current. Moving up off the 18 day MVA on volume.
BRCM 11/16 BO 16.61 +1.55 15.9 20 10M 15M 14.79
Current. Nice move up off of the 50 day MVA.
CGX 12/03 Cup hdl 23 +0.75 22 26.45 45K 65K 21.94
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA and started up Thursday on rising volume.
COGN 01/02 Cup 23.99 +0.54 25.11 30.24 876K 1.5M 23.35
New.
CRAY 11/30 A Wedge 7.59 -0.08 7.38 8.85 369K 346K 7.15
Current. Very nice test of the 10 day MVA still underway.
CRAY 10/21 Cup 7.59 -0.08 4.28 8 369K 346K 7.15
Current.
CUB 07/06 Cup 18.91 +0.48 0 0 69K 0 0
DANKY 12/17 Cup hdl 4.51 +0.26 4.62 5.65 360K 560K 4.25
Buy Not Hit. Nice volume move but not quite the breakout.
DISK 12/28 Cup hdl 2.45 -0.03 2.61 3.15 31K 37K 2.38
Buy Not Hit.
DSCO 12/07 Test BO 2.82 +0.01 3.04 4.05 36K 110K 2.83
Buy Not Issued.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 69.35 +1.53 69.45 77 7.7M 12M 67.25
Current. Nice recovery on some stronger, above average volume.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 69.35 +1.53 62.45 71 7.7M 12M 67.25
Current.
ECL 10/30 Cup hdl 50.05 +0.55 49.11 56.55 843K 1M 48.15
Current. Huge volume spike as ECL is bracing for the new high.
ESRX 12/18 Put 50.61 +2.57 48.02 44 2M 1.5M 49.05
Current. Smashed the downtrend on above average volume. Looking for some weakness after such a strong move for an exit point.
EUNI 12/30 Cup hdl 6.14 +0.46 6.33 7.88 141K 204K 5.68
Buy not hit.
FLML 12/05 Test BO 4.05 -0.3 4.05 5.97 26K 100K 4.05
Current. Started the move up off the 18 day MVA Tuesday but then turned right back down Thursday.
GRMN 11/06 Cup hdl 29.98 +0.68 22.34 31 443K 198K 28.05
Current. Nice volume move off the 10 day MVA.
HLTH 12/12 Cup hdl 8.75 +0.2 8.85 11.35 3.4M 3.1M 8.23
Buy Not Hit. But getting ready with a big volume spike.
HOTT 11/23 A Wedge 23.7 +0.82 23.9 28 596K 1.5M 22.45
Current. Nice jump off the 50 day MVA.
JBHT 12/12 A Wedge 29.49 +0.19 30.18 35.25 421K 725K 28.07
Buy Not Hit.
LMLP 12/07 Cup hdl 13.55 -0.2 10.75 12.96 176K 135K 12.25
Buy Not Issued.
LMLP 11/23 Cup hdl 13.55 -0.2 9.75 14.25 176K 135K 12.97
Current. Still in the flat consolidation following the breakout. Volume jumped on the session.
LOW 07/06 Test 50 39.35 +1.85 0 0 5.4M 0 0
MLHR 12/28 Put 19 +0.6 17.94 15.85 245K 425K 19.05
Current. Moved up to the 50 day MVA on continued low volume. Needs to fail here.
MRK 12/21 Test 50 58.25 +1.64 58.05 67 5.8M 9.5M 55.94
Current. Nice volume move.
MRK 12/07 Test BO 58.25 +1.64 59.15 67 5.8M 9.5M 55.94
Current.
MVL 11/04 BO 9.23 +0.25 8.74 10.75 604K 400K 8.35
Current. Pretty salty, moving up on some strong volume after testing the 50 day MVA early in the week.
NOC 07/06 Test 50 99.8 +2.8 0 0 1.3M 1.7M 0
NTES 12/19 Test BO 12.1 +0.65 12 14.45 462K 550K 11.12
Current. Nice jump off the 10 day MVA after the test.
OVER 12/26 Cup hdl 27.93 +0.62 30.05 36 1.2M 2.5M 27.95
Buy Not Hit. Not doing it.
PENN 12/14 Put 16.82 +0.96 16.55 14 629K 300K 17.65
Current. Jumped over the 18 day MVA on volume. Needs to fall below 16.50 Friday. If it tests but does not break it we will exit.
PFGC 12/09 Put 34.38 +0.42 33.97 31.75 222K 475K 34.75
Current. Tried the 200 day MVA but had no volume. Looks ready to fail.
PG 09/21 Test 18 87.81 +1.87 91.55 103 3.3M 5.5M 89.45
PPD 11/14 Test BO 26.62 +0.42 25.51 30.55 486K 450K 26.25
Current. Still struggling at the 10 day MVA.
PRA 12/11 Cup hdl 20.97 -0.03 20.26 24.32 85K 145K 19.05
Current. doji at the new high. Could not generate volume.
QCOM 12/21 Test 50 37.14 +0.75 39.15 48 16M 18M 36.41
Buy Not Hit.
QCOM 12/04 Test 18 37.14 +0.75 40.85 50 16M 18M 37.99
Current. Moved up to the 50 day MVA on big volume, but not much of a move compared to the rest of the market.
QCOM 11/07 Test BO 37.14 +0.75 34.78 42 16M 18M 38.14
Current.
QLGC 11/07 Test BO 36.4 +1.89 41.4 50 9.9M 25M 39.88
QLGC 08/17 CCall 36.4 +1.89 36.48 0 9.9M 12M 37
Current.
RBK 01/02 DB hdl 30.88 +1.48 30.25 38.85 716K 680K 28.12
New. Issued an alert today on the big breakout.
RCII 08/24 Test 18 52.1 +2.15 58.02 66.45 306K 701K 53.96
RIMM 12/22 Put 13.72 +0.6 12.94 9.95 615K 1.7M 14.04
Buy Not Issued.
ROIAK 12/28 Rv H&S 14.23 -0.2 14.55 17.49 943K 650K 13.53
Buy Not Hit.
SINA 12/31 Test BO 6.88 +0.38 6.25 8.25 1.1M 950K 5.81
Current. Up again on rising, average volume.
SINA 12/04 Test BO 6.88 +0.38 5.58 7.21 1.1M 950K 6.48
Current.
SRCL 10/19 Cup 33.19 +0.81 35.25 40 367K 787K 32.78
STK 12/26 Cup hdl 22.37 +0.95 23.21 27.88 762K 1.2M 21.59
Buy Not Hit.
TSCO 10/16 Test BO 39.68 +2.08 39.05 46.85 282K 235K 42.05
Current. good move up to the 50 day MVA.
UNTD 11/30 Test BO 15.99 +0.05 16.25 19.65 567K 1M 15.55
Current. Trying to get over the 18 day MVA but having some trouble.
UNTD 11/02 Cup hdl 15.99 +0.05 13.3 16 567K 1M 15.55
Current.
UPL 10/19 A Wedge 9.95 +0.05 9.68 11.75 246K 345K 9.35
Current. Stalled a bit as it tried to move to a new high.
USAI 12/28 H&S 24.31 +1.39 21.88 19.25 3.9M 4.5M 22.55
Buy not hit.
UTHR 11/12 DB hdl 17.1 +0.4 17.65 21.45 121K 295K 16.21
Current. Held the 50 day MVA and started moving up.
UTIW 12/17 Rv H&S 27.11 +0.86 24.56 29 79K 175K 24.85
Current. Blasted higher.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 16.95 +1.33 19.76 20 7.7M 8.5M 17.45
Current. Back up to the 50 day MVA.
WM 07/06 Cup 35.65 +1.12 0 0 3.6M 5.5M 0
YHOO 12/11 Test 50 17.6 +1.25 17.32 22.75 9.9M 20M 16.11
Current. Nice move up over the short term MVA on rising, average volume.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
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