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Begin Part 3 of 3
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 10/19/2002
BSX (Boston Scientific--$43.8; +0.81; optionable): Medial supplies. Forecast to announce a split on 2-4-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the announcement
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 8-27-98 at a stock price of $40. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-7-02. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bsx.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. BSX is not making a lower test on this move as it fell down to 42 on the test and has jumped back over the 18 day MVA (43) and rallied on much stronger, above average volume. Very solid performance, hitting the new buy point Friday. Still within the buy range.
Volume: 3.882M Avg Volume: 2.41M
BUY POINT: New: 43.75 (orig. 44.05; $37.75) Volume=3.3M Target=Initial $45.75 Stop=$40.55
POSITION: Stock for now.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bsx.html
Play Date: 11/30/2002
EXPE (Expedia--$70.9; +0.24; optionable): Online travel. Forecast to announce a split on 1-26-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that EXPE has ever split its stock. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/expe.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Attempting to move off of the bottom of the handle that formed in November and December, showing a strong rally on above average volume Thursday. Friday EXPE took a breather on much lower, below average volume, and after it takes this rest it looks as if it will be ready to make the move to the buy point for aggressive positions. Still a long way from the breakout point, but it can make us some good money on an option play up to that time.
Volume: 1.406M Avg Volume: 2.534M
BUY POINT: 72.50; Breakout: $78.25 Volume=3M Target=$88 Stop=$72.77
POSITION: UED DO - April $75c (61 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/expe.html
Play Date: 12/12/2002
ROST (Ross Stores--$42.85; -0.38; optionable): Apparel stores. Forecast to announce a split on 3-19-03 in conjunction with earnings. At this time the company cannot confirm a time for the release.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rost.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 8-26-99 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $43.30. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-23-02 at which time authorized shares were increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Nice recovery off the 200 day MVA, but still a lot of work to do. ROST broke over the exponential 50 day MVA (42.91) Thursday but fell back to that point Friday. Needs to continue to recover and break up the toppy pattern that has formed. A surge through the buy point on strong volume will do that.
Volume: 944.389K Avg Volume: 1.142M
BUY POINT: $45.85 Volume=1.6M Target=$52.75 Stop=$42.64
POSITION: REQ EV - May $42.50c (66 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rost.html
Play Date: 12/21/2002
SYK (Stryker--$68.02; +0.9; optionable): Medical supplies and instruments. Forecast to announce a split on 1-27-03 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 4-19-00 at a stock price of $73.
The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-23-02 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/syk.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Continued the breakout Friday, adding to its Thursday move and doing so on continued above average volume. That good accumulation at 3 accumulation weeks to 1 distribution week is helping. A bit past the buy point for this move so we are going to let current positions ride higher until we get the next entry point on the pullback after a move higher.
Volume: 856.8K Avg Volume: 775K
BUY POINT: Now new positions for now. (orig. $67.53). Volume=1.2M Target=$77.62 Stop=$62.84
POSITION: SYK FM - June $65c (70 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/syk.html
Play Date: 10/28/2002
WFMI (Whole Foods Market--$53.88; -0.06; optionable): Health food grocery. Forecast to announce a split on 2-12-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the announcement.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 5-10-01 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $50.40. The annual shareholder meeting was on 3-25-02 at which time authorized shares were increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfmi.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. WFMI surged off the 18 day MVA(53) Thursday on an above average volume spike. Friday it took a breather right at the recent resistance level at 54. Looks as if it is ready to make the next move if it can continue with the good volume.
Volume: 534.774K Avg Volume: 736K
BUY POINT: New: 54.05 (orig. $50.11) Volume=975K Target=Initial $57.51 Stop=$49.94
POSITION: FMQ BI - Feb. $45c (64 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wfmi.html
PRE-SPLIT
Play Date: 10/29/2002
FRX (Forest Labs--$106.07; +6.07; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/frx.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. Exploded higher Friday with a big gap as expected on the good earnings alert. The gap made it very hard to enter. It is interesting to note that the move almost completely reversed the gap down at the first of December. What we would prefer to see is a breather here, a day or two of rest and then the start back up. That would be the best entry point.
Volume: 3.227M Avg Volume: 1.952M
BUY POINT: Pullback to 104 to 105. Volume=3.1M Target=$115 Stop=$98
POSITION: FHA BS - Feb. $95c (63 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/frx.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 12/28/2002
APOL (Apollo Group--$45.77; +0.51; optionable): education
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apol.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Starting the breakout from the 10-week cup w/handle base that sports solid accumulation at 5 accumulation weeks to 0 distribution weeks. Thursday saw a good, high volume surge, and Friday APOL continued the move but was unable to garner the same volume. Still, when the big players all get back into town this week it could very easily get that volume. That is why we already took some positions on the play and will be looking for more as the move continues.
Volume: 1.623M Avg Volume: 2.372M
BUY POINT: New: 45.95 (orig. $45.61) Volume=3.5M Target=$54.75 Stop=$43.35
POSITION: OAQ EI - May $45c (55 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/apol.html
Play Date: 01/02/2003
COH (Coach--$33.26; -0.47; optionable): High-end handbags, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coh.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. After the high volume moves early in the week COH took the day off on much lower, below average volume. It may come back to test the 18 day MVA (32.73) and then start the move back up. COH continues to show solid accumulation at 7 accumulation weeks to just 3 distribution weeks since May. Looking for another break higher on volume from COH for positions.
Volume: 492.5K Avg Volume: 848.09K
BUY POINT: $34.11 Volume=1.3M Target=$40.94 Stop=$31.72
POSITION: COH EF - May $30c (73 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coh.html
Play Date: 09/19/2002
GG (Goldcorp--$13.07; +0.38; optionable): Gold mining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gg.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After the breakout move in December, GG has moved laterally the past three weeks in a trading range from 12.25 to roughly 13.50. Gold has obviously been performing well, but gold is volatile, now driven by global fears. It did this in the Iraq invasion and then fell afterwards. Some are saying it is also reflecting some inflationary fears, but that is premature. Friday GG surged up again on stronger, above average volume after pulling back the prior sessions. Looking for a new breakout for more positions.
Volume: 2.43M Avg Volume: 1.729M
BUY POINT: New: $13.55 (orig. $11.98) Volume=2.4M Target=16.25 new (orig. positions $14.45) Stop=$11.97
POSITION: GG DV - April $10c (83 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gg.html
Play Date: 01/02/2003
PFCB (PF Changs--$38.3; +0.02; optionable): Restaurants
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pfcb.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout. Moved fractionally higher in a somewhat volatile session Friday that followed the big breakout move Thursday. Lighter volume Friday was good to see as the stock took a breather after the strong move. May test a bit more early in the week, but solid breakout and on a further move we will look at positions.
Volume: 599.047K Avg Volume: 565.863K
BUY POINT: $38.48 Volume=870K Target=$44.25 Stop=$35.79
POSITION: HUO DG - April $35c (74 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pfcb.html
Play Date: 12/07/2002
UOPX (University of Phoenix Online--$38.07; +0.77; optionable): Online education
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uopx.html
STATUS: 18 day MVA test. Great move Friday on some rising, above average volume. APOL is UOPX' parent, and they are both performing well. Still plenty of time to buy in on this move as it moves to the new high where there is no overhead resistance.
Volume: 264.518K Avg Volume: 234.772K
BUY POINT: New: 38.25 (orig. $36.74) Volume=278K Target=$42 Stop=$34.17
POSITION: UBY CF - June $35c (56 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/uopx.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
$SOX 12/07 Test 50 314.14 +5.58 335.15 385 0 0 313.94
Current. Continuing the recovery, rallying over exponential 50 day MVA and now confronting resistance at 325 next. Many key chip stocks (AMAT, KLAC), however, have made dramatic improvement and look ready for further upside.
ACS 12/21 DB hdl 54.81 +0.83 52.05 60 1.2M 2.4M 51
Current. Another solid move higher as the breakout move continues but not much volume being attracted.
AGU 12/30 A Wedge 11.64 +0.24 11.55 13.85 639K 357K 11.05
Current. Made the breakout move on super volume Friday. Still a buy at this point.
AIG 12/18 Put 60.12 -0.18 58.55 54 3.9M 7M 59.15
Current. Doji Friday. Need to see a drop early this week or we will close it out.
ALN 12/07 Test BO 10.15 +0.05 9.86 11.85 194K 412K 9.17
ALN 11/09 Test BO 10.15 +0.05 7.28 9.75 194K 200K 9.25
Current. Took a breather after the good recovery.
AME 12/05 DB hdl 38.4 -0.5 38.71 46.45 80K 225K 36
Buy Not Issued. Pulling back to test the 10 day MVA on low volume after the stronger move. May be ready this week.
AMZN 10/21 Cup hdl 20.52 +0.95 20.32 24.38 8.8M 10M 21.75
Current. Continues to work back, now facing the 50 day MVA at 21. Solid upside volume Friday.
ANT 12/11 Put 25.4 +0.4 22.45 20 131K 200K 23.55
Current. Rallied again on low volume. Low volume kept us in a bit longer, anticipating a selling session early this week for a better exit point if it does not roll over harder.
APOL 12/28 Cup hdl 45.77 +0.51 45.61 54.75 1.6M 3.5M 43.35
Current. Solid move once again.
ASKJ 12/26 Cup hdl 2.97 +0.28 2.89 3.88 272K 305K 2.44
Current. Hit the buy Friday on a nice move that saw lower though still above average volume following Thursday's high volume.
ATRS 12/30 BO 13.69 -1.28 14.81 18 240K 200K 13.77
Current. In trouble after the strong breakout, reversing Thursday and Friday. It is at the stop and we won't hesitate to pull the trigger on it Monday.
ATRS 11/23 A Wedge 13.69 -1.28 14.05 18 240K 200K 13.07
Current.
AVCT 12/28 Test 50 23.8 -0.19 23.08 27 520K 750K 22.05
Current. Took a breather Friday after the strong jump Thursday.
BRCM 01/02 Test 50 16.5 -0.11 16.85 20.45 7.6M 12M 15.67
New. Neat little test of the 50 day MVA.
BRCM 08/17 CCall 16.5 -0.11 19.2 19.8 7.6M 9M 17.25
Current.
BSTE 12/11 A Wedge 35.82 +0.78 34 41.25 443K 900K 33.94
Current. Rallied Friday on some rising though still below average volume. Needs to clear 37.75 with some strength.
BSX 10/19 Test BO 43.8 +0.81 37.75 45.75 3.9M 3.3M 41.94
Current. Good volume surge off the 18 day MVA.
COH 01/02 A Wedge 33.26 -0.47 34.11 40.94 492K 1.3M 31.72
Buy Not Hit. Took a breather.
COLM 11/13 DB hdl 45.24 -0.93 41.96 48.45 305K 389K 44.25
Current. Ditto, holding the 10 day MVA.
CVD 12/21 Cup hdl 24.88 -0.29 24.75 29.74 201K 581K 23.65
Current. Took a breather on some very low volume.
CVD 11/05 Test BO 24.88 -0.29 23.65 28 201K 581K 23.35
Current.
ESPD 12/19 Test BO 18.08 +0.4 17.81 21.45 317K 675K 16.11
Buy Not Issued. Jumped but could not get the volume.
ESRX 12/18 Put 51.51 +0.9 48.02 44 1.2M 1.5M 49.05
Current. Rallied up to the 50 day MVA on lower volume in a fitful session. Will see if we get a rollover here this week for a better exit point or further selling.
EXPD 11/09 Cup hdl 33.35 -0.21 32.08 38 526K 750K 32.45
Current. Hanging on in a low volume consolidation.
EXPE 11/30 A Wedge 70.9 +0.24 78.25 88 1.4M 3.2M 72.77
Current.
FAST 12/14 Cup hdl 38.24 -0.53 38.55 43 1.3M 995K 37.05
Current. Took a breather Friday, falling back to the 10 day MVA on the close.
FIC 12/26 DB hdl 43.05 +0.54 44.51 48 256K 575K 40.55
Buy Not Hit. Showing better action and getting close to a breakout. Need to see the volume jump on such a move.
FRX 10/29 Test BO 106.07 +6.07 99.55 115 3.2M 3.1M 103
GG 09/19 Cup hdl 13.07 +0.38 11.98 14.45 2.4M 2.4M 11.97
Current.
HSIC 12/09 Put 44.8 -0.8 44.15 40 469K 667K 46.05
Buy Not Issued.
HTLD 12/28 Cup hdl 22.5 -0.3 23.28 27.94 203K 240K 22.05
Buy Not Hit. Still holding at the 18 day MVA with a big doji. Waiting for it to make the move if it will.
IDXC 12/02 Cup hdl 17.4 -0.15 17.65 21.25 230K 163K 16.85
Current. Still moving laterally in the handle, hugging the 18 day MVA.
IGEN 12/19 Test BO 42.2 -0.37 43.05 49.55 264K 450K 42.05
Current. Looks ready for the next leg up.
IGEN 11/16 DB hdl 42.2 -0.37 38.81 45 264K 300K 41.75
Current.
INFY 12/21 Test BO 69.25 +0.11 76.05 92 113K 165K 71.35
Buy Not Hit.
LSTR 12/19 A Wedge 57.72 -0.77 56.42 62.42 87K 220K 56
Current. Fell back toward the 10 day MVA Friday as it did not participate in any move, but the volume was very light.
MATK 12/04 Test BO 24.19 -0.53 23.39 27.94 247K 300K 23.88
Current. Still testing at th e10 day MVA on low volume.
MLHR 12/28 Put 18.86 -0.14 17.94 15.85 145K 425K 19.05
Current. Tried to clear the 50 day MVA Friday but started to stall.
MRK 12/21 Test 50 58.99 +0.74 58.05 67 5.2M 9.5M 55.94
Current. Another good move higher as drug stocks continue to look solid.
MRK 12/07 Test BO 58.99 +0.74 59.15 67 5.2M 9.5M 55.94
Current.
NBIX 10/08 Rv H&S 45.06 -0.35 44.85 51.75 330K 1.1M 45.45
Current.
NTII 12/22 Test BO 5.95 +0.16 6.74 8.25 23K 90K 6.18
Buy Not Hit. Still at the 18 day MVA on low volume as money flow remains strong.
PENN 12/14 Put 16.44 -0.38 16.55 14 222K 300K 17.65
Current. Tried another move up but rolled over Friday. In good position to turn back down.
PFCB 01/02 A Wedge 38.3 +0.02 38.48 44.25 599K 870K 35.79
Buy Not Hit.
PNRA 11/07 Cup hdl 35.67 -0.32 34.38 39.75 432K 1.2M 34.12
Current. Took a breather Friday, selling back but holding the 10 day MVA after the big Thursday move.
PPD 11/14 Test BO 26.18 -0.44 25.51 30.55 505K 450K 26.25
Current. On the bubble, still holding support at 26 but has lost its momentum for now. Long term holds are in decent shape as long as it holds here.
PSUN 12/05 BO 18.63 -0.1 18.7 22.01 818K 1.5M 17.39
Current. took a breather as well Friday after surging up Thursday.
QCOM 12/21 Test 50 35.7 -1.44 39.15 48 16M 18M 36.41
Buy Not Hit.
QCOM 12/04 Test 18 35.7 -1.44 40.85 50 16M 18M 37.99
Current. Struggling, breaking below the lows in the recent consolidation on rising, above average volume. Needs to turn back up here.
QCOM 11/07 Test BO 35.7 -1.44 34.78 42 16M 18M 38.14
Current.
QLGC 11/07 Test BO 37.77 +1.37 41.4 50 11M 25M 39.88
RBK 01/02 DB hdl 30.5 -0.38 30.25 38.85 929K 680K 28.45
Current. Took a breather after the strong move.
RHD 11/30 Cup hdl 28.96 -0.09 30.17 25.94 123K 267K 28.06
Buy Not Hit. Looks ready.
ROST 12/12 Test 50 42.85 -0.38 45.85 52.75 944K 1.6M 42.64
Buy Not Hit.
SCIO 12/03 Cup hdl 33.43 -0.04 33.05 39.65 576K 1.6M 30.74
Buy Not Issued.
SINA 12/31 Test BO 7.41 +0.53 6.25 8.25 1.5M 950K 6.48
Current. Another strong volume move higher.
SINA 12/04 Test BO 7.41 +0.53 5.58 8.25 1.5M 950K 6.48
Current.
SOHU 01/03 BO 7.08 +0.52 7.15 9 802K 800K 6.65
New.
STN 01/04 Rv H&S 18 -0.11 19.05 22.86 103K 600K 17.72
New.
SWKS 01/03 Test 50 9.32 +0.07 9.55 12 2.5M 5M 8.68
New.
SYK 12/21 Rv H&S 68.68 +0.66 67.53 77.62 873K 1.2M 62.84
Current.
SYMC 01/02 Test 50 43.85 +1.17 43.05 51 3.6M 4.1M 40.45
Current. Nice surge as expected.
TECH 01/03 Put 28.16 -0.83 27.88 24 626K 400K 29.21
New.
TSCO 10/16 Test BO 39.85 +0.17 39.05 46.85 194K 235K 37.94
Current. Rallied to the 50 day MVA where it is stalling a bit. Needs to avoid rolling over here.
UNTD 11/30 Test BO 16.54 +0.55 16.25 19.65 434K 1M 15.55
Current.
UOPX 12/07 Test BO 38.07 +0.77 36.74 42 265K 278K 35.74
Current.
URBN 12/22 Put 23.36 -0.73 23.36 20.22 200K 500K 24.65
Current.
VAR 12/18 Rv H&S 50.43 -0.02 50.25 58 353K 700K 48.05
Current. Still trying to get free of 50, but volume is not there.
VRNT 11/23 Cup hdl 22.03 -0.46 15.85 21.55 343K 113K 19.94
Current. Took a breather Friday after the strong Thursday surge.
VSAT 12/17 Test 18 11.97 +0.1 12.26 15.45 68K 320K 11.35
Buy Not Issued. A doji at the 18 day MVA. May be ready, but need to see the volume surge on the breakout.
WCN 12/31 BO 38.7 -0.2 39.1 46.45 222K 425K 36.94
Current. Rested Friday.
WERN 11/30 Cup hdl 21.5 -0.23 22.75 27.35 198K 550K 21.16
Buy Not Hit.
WFMI 12/14 Test BO 53.88 -0.06 53.65 64 535K 975K 52.05
Current.
WFMI 10/28 Cup hdl 53.88 -0.06 50.11 57.51 535K 975K 52.05
Current.
WGO 12/28 Put 40.74 -0.33 39.49 36 198K 270K 41
Current. Stalling at the 10 day MVA, but needs to make the break lower.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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