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Begin Part 3 of 3
Play Date: 12/16/2002
IDBE (ID Biomedical--$6.53; -0.12; no options): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/idbe.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. IDBE is still working in the handle, moving laterally over the 18 day MVA (6.41) on continued low, below average volume. This looks as if it can be a good final touch to its 9-month base. What we are doing now is sitting back and waiting for a high volume breakout. It has shown some big volume spikes heading into this last lateral move, indicating that there is ongoing accumulation. These often show up in the last stages before a breakout.
Volume: 43K Avg Volume: 101.5K
BUY POINT: $6.65 Volume=165K Target=$8.55 Stop=$6.15
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/idbe.html
Play Date: 12/21/2002
NSCN (Netscreen Technologies--$17.46; -0.22; optionable): Security software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nscn.html
STATUS: Pennant/ascending wedge. The pattern took a more bullish turn, and on Thursday it started up on rising volume. Friday volume shot higher and well above average as the stock hit 18.77 on the high. Infortunately it gave th emove back, finishing fractionally lower. That is not great action but NSCN shows excellent money flow and positive accumulation at 13 accumulation weeks to 11 distribution weeks.
Volume: 1.67M Avg Volume: 1.049M
BUY POINT: New: $17.85 (orig. $16.69) Volume=1.8M Target=$20.15 Stop=$15.45
POSITION: QKN FC - June $15c (67 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nscn.html
Play Date: 12/18/2002
TARO (Taro Pharmaceuticals--$38.08; -0.11; optionable): Drug manufacturer
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/taro.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working on the handle to its 13-month base that bottomed from May to July. Since the stock started bottoming in May accumulation is excellent at 8 up weeks on rising volume to 3 down weeks on rising volume. This latest test of the 50 day MVA at 37 has helped shore up the handle to the base. Friday it tested the 10 day MVA with a very tight doji, not bad action after moving up off the 50 day MVA late last month. We just have to sit back and let all of the accumulation work for us in a big breakout.
Volume: 121.71K Avg Volume: 341.59K
BUY POINT: $39.05 Volume=575K Target=$46.85 Stop=$36.32
POSITION: QTT DG - April $35c (66 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/taro.html
UNTD (United Online--$16.54; +0.55; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/untd.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Shaping up very well, forming a 5-week ascending triangle. Looking for a breakout to kick off the next strong move up.
Volume: 434.025K Avg Volume: 827.227K
BUY POINT: New: $17.05 (orig. $16.25) Volume=1M Target=$20.50 (new) Stop=$15.55
POSITION: QAB CC - Mar. $15c (65 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/untd.html
Downside
Play Date: 12/14/2002
CEPH (Cephalon--$49.6; -0.17; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceph.html
STATUS: Put. Testing the 200 day MVA on the Friday high (50.41), CEPH lost traction and closed with a tight doji on the candlestick pattern. After a move back up such a pattern can signal the stock is ready to resume the downtrend. About all it could do in the bounce last week was move up to resistance on continues light volume. Not a strong move.
Volume: 1.141M Avg Volume: 2.061M
BUY POINT: New: $48.25 (orig. $49.19) Volume=2M Target=$45.51 Stop=$50.65
POSITION: CQE NJ - Feb. $50p (-46 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ceph.html
Play Date: 12/09/2002
HSIC (Henry Schein--$44.8; -0.8; optionable): Wholesale medical equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hsic.html
STATUS: Put. HSIC continues to struggle below the 50 day MVA (46.55) and at the 18 day MVA (45.07), unable to hold a move higher. The inability to move up as the market rallied exposed its weakness, but we still want to see the breakdown on a big volume spike. Volume was up on the Friday selling, but still well below average.
Volume: 469.267K Avg Volume: 618.59K
BUY POINT: $44.15 Volume=667K Target=$40 Stop=$46.05
POSITION: HQE NI - Feb. $45p (-47 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hsic.html
Play Date: 12/21/2002
JAKK (Jakks Pacific--$13.81; +0.03; optionable): Toys and games
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jakk.html
STATUS: Put. Head and shoulders breakdown. JAKK managed to rally with the market Thursday and gapped higher Friday, but it could not hold the gains, running out of steam at the 50 day MVA on the session high (14.15) and turning back down. This was the apex of the left shoulder in the head and shoulders pattern and a prime spot to turn back down. Looking for it to do just that.
Volume: 118.835K Avg Volume: 212.227K
BUY POINT: $13.24 Volume=325K Target=$11 Stop=$14.65
POSITION: UFF OC - Mar. $15p (-58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jakk.html
Play Date: 12/09/2002
PFGC (Performance Food Group--$34.42; +0.04; optionable): Wholesale food
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pfgc.html
STATUS: Put. PFGC has refused to die off just yet, rallying back up to the 200 day MVA on the Friday high (34.60) that also marks the down trendline that started in October. The move up was on low volume and we are watching for PFGC to turn back over and continue the fall from here. It is showing a bit more life, so if the collapse does not come on higher volume we will be careful of 34 holding as support. If it does we will use it as an exit point.
Volume: 203.81K Avg Volume: 398.954K
BUY POINT: $33.97 Volume=475K Target=$31.75 Stop=$34.75
POSITION: PGU MG - Jan. $35p (-50 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pfgc.html
Play Date: 12/22/2002
URBN (Urban Outfitters--$23.36; -0.73; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/urbn.html
STATUS: Put. URBN tried to make it over the short term MVA (18 day MVA at 24.23), but after the low volume rise to that level, Friday URBN rolled over at the 18 day and sold back on some rising though still below average volume. Want to see more volume on a further breakdown though the stock remains under distribution.
Volume: 199.835K Avg Volume: 409.772K
BUY POINT: $23.36 Volume=500K Target=$20.22 Stop=$24.65
POSITION: URQ OE - Mar. $25p (-49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/urbn.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING:
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
$SOX 12/07 Test 50 314.14 +5.58 335.15 385 0 0 313.94
Current. Continuing the recovery, rallying over exponential 50 day MVA and now confronting resistance at 325 next. Many key chip stocks (AMAT, KLAC), however, have made dramatic improvement and look ready for further upside.
ADTN 12/10 Test 18 36.28 +2.75 32.05 38.45 2.8M 800K 33.25
Current. Super news led to a nice gap higher on huge volume. A clear breakout and now we will let it work for us.
AFCO 12/07 Test BO 19.71 -0.29 20.85 25 84K 225K 18.79
Buy Not Hit. Still in the test. Maybe a chip rally will break it higher.
AIG 12/18 Put 60.12 -0.18 58.55 54 3.9M 7M 59.15
Current. Doji Friday. Need to see a drop early this week or we will close it out.
AMTD 12/19 A Wedge 6.1 +0.16 5.54 6.85 2.6M 165K 5.35
Current. Still rallying on above average volume.
ANSI 12/30 Cup hdl 35.32 -0.38 35.43 40.74 100K 309K 32.95
Buy Not Hit. Still moving toward a breakout, taking a breather Friday.
ANT 12/11 Put 25.4 +0.4 22.45 20 131K 200K 23.55
Current. Rallied again on low volume. Low volume kept us in a bit longer, anticipating a selling session early this week for a better exit point if it does not roll over harder.
APSG 12/28 Cup hdl 11.51 +0.19 12.04 14.55 12K 85K 11.45
Buy Not Hit. Looks ready.
ASKJ 12/26 Cup hdl 2.97 +0.28 2.89 3.88 272K 305K 2.44
Current. Hit the buy Friday on a nice move that saw lower though still above average volume following Thursday's high volume.
AVCT 12/28 Test 50 23.8 -0.19 23.08 27 520K 750K 22.05
Current. Took a breather Friday after the strong jump Thursday.
AVID 12/07 Test 18 23.71 +0.51 21 25 277K 500K 21.75
Current. Rising still.
AVID 10/30 Cup hdl 23.71 +0.51 15.65 25 277K 177K 21.75
Current.
AVO 12/16 A Wedge 12.3 +0.1 12.06 14.45 71K 210K 11.22
Buy Not Issued. Making the move higher but not bringing in the volume.
AVP 11/25 Cup hdl 53.99 -0.5 52.94 61 1.1M 1.8M 52.75
Current. Gapped higher Friday but could not hold the move. Still struggling to break over 55.
BBBY 01/02 Cup 35.27 -0.93 37.55 45 2.8M 5.7M 34.92
Buy Not Hit. Looks very good still.
BER 11/13 Cup hdl 38.86 -0.74 38.4 45 382K 306K 38.35
Exited.
BRCM 01/02 Test 50 16.5 -0.11 16.85 20.45 7.6M 12M 15.67
Buy not hit.
BRCM 08/17 CCall 16.5 -0.11 19.2 19.8 7.6M 9M 17.25
Current.
BSTE 12/11 A Wedge 35.82 +0.78 34 41.25 443K 900K 33.94
Current. Trying to make the break over 36. Got some volume but still below average.
CEPH 12/14 Put 49.6 -0.17 49.19 45.51 1.1M 2M 50.65
Current. Tested the 200 day MVA on the Friday high, showing a doji.
COLM 11/13 DB hdl 45.24 -0.93 41.96 48.45 305K 389K 44.25
Current. Took a breather Friday on lower volume.
CVD 12/21 Cup hdl 24.88 -0.29 24.75 29.74 201K 581K 23.65
Current. Took a breather on some very low volume.
CVD 11/05 Test BO 24.88 -0.29 23.65 28 201K 581K 23.35
Current.
CVH 12/09 Put 30.24 -0.56 29.04 26 383K 820K 30.24
Current.
ETM 12/28 Put 49.38 +0.74 45.75 42 275K 325K 46.78
Current. Broke over the 50 day MVA Friday on rising volume though still below average. Right at resistance; needs to fail here.
GPN 12/19 BO 31.64 -0.11 31.55 38 107K 225K 30.12
Current. Lateral move after the breakout.
GRMN 11/06 Cup hdl 30.82 +0.84 22.34 34 635K 198K 28.95
Current. Another strong volume move higher that hit another target. Upping the target for the next leg.
HAR 11/21 Test 18 59.86 -0.99 61.6 70 169K 488K 59.45
Current. Took a breather Friday on low volume after the solid move off the 50 day MVA. Needs to hold at 59 on any further test.
HD 09/16 Test 50 21.38 -3.5 34.55 38 65M 10M 32.13
Current. Broke down from a descending wedge on the news. Not much hope of any recovery.
HSIC 12/09 Put 44.8 -0.8 44.15 40 469K 667K 46.05
Buy Not Issued.
IDBE 12/16 DB hdl 6.53 -0.12 6.65 8.55 43K 165K 6.15
Current.
IDBE 01/04 DB hdl 6.53 -0.12 6.85 8.55 43K 165K 6.37
New.
JAKK 12/22 Put 13.81 +0.03 13.55 11 119K 325K 14.65
Current.
KLAC 01/03 Test 50 39 +1.64 39.25 45.25 13M 12M 36.55
New.
LXK 01/02 Test 50 63.61 +0.47 63.78 69 988K 1.8M 60.25
Buy Not Hit. Rising still. Will face strong resistance at 65.
MBT 12/22 Cup hdl 38.4 +0.08 40.06 47.96 35K 255K 37.26
Buy Not Hit. Decent, holding above the 10 day MVA with a doji after the move up off the 50 day MVA as it makes higher lows. Just waiting for the move.
MEDI 01/03 A Wedge 28.2 +0.32 28.55 33.88 3.8M 5M 26.98
New.
MERQ 12/11 Test BO 31.41 +0.16 31.55 38 1.3M 5M 29.94
Current. Now moving in a trading range from 29 to 32 on low volume. Thursday volume surged, an indication that it might be ready to make a breakout over the range this time.
MLHR 12/28 Put 18.86 -0.14 17.94 15.85 145K 425K 19.05
Current. Tried to clear the 50 day MVA Friday but started to stall.
MRCY 12/14 A Wedge 31.56 +0.19 32.55 37.85 70K 350K 29.43
Buy Not Issued. Still moving in the wedge, rallying off the 50 day MVA once again as the bottom support of the base. Waiting for it to make the breakout.
MSN 12/21 Test BO 5.54 +0.38 5.92 7.45 133K 150K 4.94
Buy Not Hit. Solid move up off of the 50 day MVA, Friday rising on some increased volume.
MSN 12/04 Cup hdl 5.54 +0.38 4.85 6.35 133K 150K 4.75
Current.
MSN 11/23 Cup hdl 5.54 +0.38 4.15 5.68 133K 150K 4.75
Current.
NBIX 10/08 Rv H&S 45.06 -0.35 44.85 51.75 330K 1.1M 45.45
Current. Testing the 50 day MVA on lower volume. Good accumulation, good money flow.
NSCN 12/22 Pennant 17.46 -0.22 17.24 21.24 1.7M 1.8M 16.03
Current.
NTII 12/22 Test BO 5.95 +0.16 6.74 8.25 23K 90K 6.18
Buy Not Hit. Still at the 18 day MVA on low volume as money flow remains strong.
PFGC 12/09 Put 34.42 +0.04 33.97 31.75 204K 475K 34.75
Current. Struggled at the 200 day MVA Friday and then turned down.
PVSW 11/23 Cup 4.05 -0.09 4.27 5.35 27K 125K 3.97
Current. Still working laterally at the 18 day MVA. On the bubble. It moves or we sell and look elsewhere.
QCOM 12/21 Test 50 35.7 -1.44 39.15 48 16M 18M 36.41
Buy Not Hit.
QCOM 12/04 Test 18 35.7 -1.44 40.85 50 16M 18M 37.99
Current. Struggling, breaking below the lows in the recent consolidation on rising, above average volume. Needs to turn back up here.
QCOM 11/07 Test BO 35.7 -1.44 34.78 42 16M 18M 38.14
Current.
QLGC 11/07 Test BO 37.77 +1.37 41.4 50 11M 25M 39.88
RBK 01/02 DB hdl 30.5 -0.38 30.25 38.85 929K 680K 28.45
Current. Took a breather after the strong move.
RDEN 12/17 Cup hdl 14.8 -0.16 15.39 18.45 64K 185K 14.31
Buy Not Hit. Continuing to work on breaking out of the pattern with resistance just over 15.
RINO 10/24 Test BO 18.03 +0.04 17.35 20.75 205K 225K 16.95
Current. Gapped higher Friday to 18.42 but could not hold all the move as it continues its move off of the 50 day MVA.
RINO 08/28 Cup hdl 18.03 +0.04 13.8 20 205K 300K 16.95
Current.
SAFC 12/07 A Wedge 35.71 +0.08 36.69 41 535K 1.5M 34.12
Buy Not Hit. Tested the 50 day MVA last week and trying to rise off of that level. Just waiting for the breakout.
SINA 12/31 Test BO 7.41 +0.53 6.25 8.25 1.5M 950K 6.48
Current. Another strong volume move higher.
SINA 12/04 Test BO 7.41 +0.53 5.58 8.25 1.5M 950K 6.48
Current.
SJM 12/02 Test BO 40.67 -0.09 40.15 48 310K 476K 37.65
Buy Not Issued. Making the breakout on above average volume but not quite strong enough. Friday it showed a doji, not a sign of strength after the Thursday gain.
SOHU 01/03 BO 7.08 +0.52 7.15 9 802K 800K 6.65
New.
TARO 12/18 Cup hdl 38.08 -0.11 39.05 46.85 122K 575K 36.32
Buy Not Hit. Looks solid, holding the 10 day MVA with a doji Friday after a good move off the 50 day MVA.
TECH 01/03 Put 28.16 -0.83 27.88 24 626K 400K 29.21
New.
TK 12/07 Cup hdl 41.7 -0.14 39.25 46.65 81K 235K 36.15
Buy Not Issued. Continuing to move laterally in a flat flying plateau pattern on below average volume. If it is strong it will break up and out from this pattern but we may see a bit of a shakeout first, i.e., a test down for a session or two on lower volume.
TSCO 10/16 Test BO 39.85 +0.17 39.05 46.85 194K 235K 37.94
Current. Rallied to the 50 day MVA where it is stalling a bit. Needs to avoid rolling over here.
UNTD 11/30 Test BO 16.54 +0.55 16.25 19.65 434K 1M 15.55
Current.
URBN 12/22 Put 23.36 -0.73 23.36 20.22 200K 500K 24.65
Current.
UTHR 11/12 DB hdl 17.05 -0.05 17.65 21.45 59K 295K 16.21
Current. Still in the long lateral move. It is a decent consolidation but has run out of steam for the time being.
VZ 12/04 Cup hdl 40.45 +0.28 41 47.5 5.2M 11M 38.13
Buy Not Hit.
VZ 11/23 Cup hdl 40.45 +0.28 41 45 5.2M 11M 38.25
Current. Up again Friday but on lower volume. Trying to make that next move up in the pattern.
VZ 10/10 Test 50 40.45 +0.28 34.75 42 5.2M 10M 38.25
Current.
WCN 12/31 BO 38.7 -0.2 39.1 46.45 222K 425K 36.94
Current. Rested Friday.
WGO 12/28 Put 40.74 -0.33 39.49 36 198K 270K 41
Current. Stalling at the 10 day MVA, but needs to make the break lower.
YHOO 12/11 Test 50 18.1 +0.5 17.32 22.75 7.6M 20M 16.11
Current. Nice move continues, looking for a breakout here.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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