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us stock market, trade stock
Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: ADTN; APOL; AVID; MSN; NTES; SINA
New:
SWKS (Skyworks Solutions--$9.32; +0.07; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/swks.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. SWKS blasted over the 200 day MVA (8) in late November and has since tested the move, pulling back with the rest of the market in December. It has come to rest on the 50 day MVA (8.79), working laterally along that support the past two weeks. Volume picked up at the end of the week, and it is in good shape to further participate in a move up to the market's next resistance point. Accumulation is 12 accumulation weeks to 6 distribution weeks since March. Money flow is showing a big positive divergence as it is a much higher level now (and rising above the price) than it was when the stock price was higher in early 2002. Looking for SWKS to provide a move higher as the market and chips try a further recovery up to next resistance.
Volume: 2.525M Avg Volume: 5.176M
BUY POINT: $9.55 Volume=5M Target=$12 Stop=$8.68
POSITION: GAK EU - May $7.50c (78 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cI/swks.html
ACTI (Activecard--$8.7; +0.1; no options): Security software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acti.html
STATUS: Pennant. One of the stronger technology sectors given the continuing growth of online activity and the specter of terrorist cyber attacks. ACTI is working through a 2-month pattern on the tail end of a longer 12-month cup base. Accumulation is solid at 2 accumulation weeks to 0 distribution weeks in the pennant and 13 to 2 since the last small cup started in June. Money flow is racing ahead of the stock as it has again successfully tested the 50 day MVA (8.36) last week, and if the stock garners some big volume on the move we will enter.
Volume: 53.7K Avg Volume: 152.318K
BUY POINT: $8.95 Volume=225K Target=$10.75 Stop=$8.28
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cI/acti.html
Downside:
TECH (Techne--$28.16; -0.83; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tech.html
STATUS: Put. TECH is breaking down below the 200 day MVA (29.34) after a volatile three weeks of trading around that level. It tried to recover in late December, but rolled over. It bounced up last week but then Friday TECH was turned back and sold on a sharp increase in volume. The selling recently has been on higher volume while the recovery sessions were on much lower, below average volume. Not any accumulation to pick the stock back up. There is support at 28 where the stock tapped Friday. On a break below that on continued strong volume we will move in as the door is opened at that point for a further drop.
Volume: 626.235K Avg Volume: 434.09K
BUY POINT: $27.88 Volume=400K Target=$24 Stop=$29.21
POSITION: TGQ NF - Feb. $30p (-60 delta) or TGQ PF - April $30p (-53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tech.html
Revisited:
Play Date: 01/02/2003
BRCM (Broadcom--$16.5; -0.11; optionable): Communication chips
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brcm.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. BRCM peaked in late November, then sold back to the 50 day MVA (15.40) where it traded for the past three weeks. It never collapsed, and after a shakeout early last week it jumped off the 50 day on sharply rising volume Thursday. We were waiting for it to test back to the 50 day just as many stocks did after their first moves coming off the October low. Friday BRCM did just that with a lower volume tap of the 50 day on the low and a rebound to close slightly lower. Looks ready for another move higher from here. We are ready to start some positions for this trade up to the recent high near 21.
Volume: 7.647M Avg Volume: 10.782M
BUY POINT: $16.85 Volume=12M Target=$20.45 Stop=$15.67
POSITION: RCQ EC - May $15c (69 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/brcm.html
Play Date: 12/19/2002
IGEN (Igen International--$42.2; -0.37; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/igen.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. A good mover off of the October low, IGEN formed a double bottom with handle that broke out in early December on a massive breakout. It rallied to over 44 since then and is now making its first real test of the short term MVA. Stocks typically do this after breaking out, running up the short term MVA 4 to 5 times before correcting a bit deeper. Friday IGEN showed a tight doji right above the 18 day MVA. Looks ready to continue the move from here.
Volume: 263.644K Avg Volume: 246.409K
BUY POINT: $43.05 Volume=450K Target=$49.55 Stop=$42.05
POSITION: GQ FH - June $40c (66 delta) or GQ CH - Mar. $40c (64 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/igen.html
Play Date: 11/30/2002
UNTD (United Online--$16.54; +0.55; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/untd.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Shaping up very well, forming a 5-week ascending triangle. Looking for a breakout to kick off the next strong move up.
Volume: 434.025K Avg Volume: 827.227K
BUY POINT: New: $17.05 (orig. $16.25) Volume=1M Target=$20.50 (new) Stop=$15.55
POSITION: QAB CC - Mar. $15c (65 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/untd.html
Downside:
Play Date: 12/22/2002
URBN (Urban Outfitters--$23.36; -0.73; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/urbn.html
STATUS: Put. URBN tried to make it over the short term MVA (18 day MVA at 24.23), but after the low volume rise to that level, Friday URBN rolled over at the 18 day and sold back on some rising though still below average volume. Want to see more volume on a further breakdown though the stock remains under distribution.
Volume: 199.835K Avg Volume: 409.772K
BUY POINT: $23.36 Volume=500K Target=$20.22 Stop=$24.65
POSITION: URQ OE - Mar. $25p (-49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/urbn.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Still look good:
APOL
BSX
CEPH
COGN
HLTH
HSIC
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
$SOX 12/07 Test 50 314.14 +5.58 335.15 385 0 0 313.94
Current. Continuing the recovery, rallying over exponential 50 day MVA and now confronting resistance at 325 next. Many key chip stocks (AMAT, KLAC), however, have made dramatic improvement and look ready for further upside.
ACTI 01/04 Pennant 8.7 +0.1 8.95 10.75 54K 225K 8.28
New.
ADTN 12/10 Test 18 36.28 +2.75 32.05 38.45 2.8M 800K 33.25
Current. Super news led to a nice gap higher on huge volume. A clear breakout and now we will let it work for us.
AFCO 12/07 Test BO 19.71 -0.29 20.85 25 84K 225K 18.79
Buy Not Hit. Still in the test. Maybe a chip rally will break it higher.
AIG 12/18 Put 60.12 -0.18 58.55 54 3.9M 7M 59.15
Current. Doji Friday. Need to see a drop early this week or we will close it out.
ALN 12/07 Test BO 10.15 +0.05 9.86 11.85 194K 412K 9.17
ALN 11/09 Test BO 10.15 +0.05 7.28 9.75 194K 200K 9.25
Current. Took a breather after the good recovery.
AMZN 10/21 Cup hdl 20.52 +0.95 20.32 24.38 8.8M 10M 21.75
Current. Continues to work back, now facing the 50 day MVA at 21. Solid upside volume Friday.
ANT 12/11 Put 25.4 +0.4 22.45 20 131K 200K 23.55
Current. Rallied again on low volume. Low volume kept us in a bit longer, anticipating a selling session early this week for a better exit point if it does not roll over harder.
APOL 12/28 Cup hdl 45.77 +0.51 45.61 54.75 1.6M 3.5M 43.35
Current. Solid move once again.
ATRS 12/30 BO 13.69 -1.28 14.81 18 240K 200K 13.77
Current. In trouble after the strong breakout, reversing Thursday and Friday. It is at the stop and we won't hesitate to pull the trigger on it Monday.
ATRS 11/23 A Wedge 13.69 -1.28 14.05 18 240K 200K 13.07
Current.
AVID 12/07 Test 18 23.71 +0.51 21 25 277K 500K 21.75
Current. Rising still.
AVID 10/30 Cup hdl 23.71 +0.51 15.65 25 277K 177K 21.75
Current.
AVP 11/25 Cup hdl 53.99 -0.5 52.94 61 1.1M 1.8M 52.75
Current. Gapped higher Friday but could not hold the move. Still struggling to break over 55.
BER 11/13 Cup hdl 38.86 -0.74 38.4 45 382K 306K 38.35
Exited.
BRCM 01/02 Test 50 16.5 -0.11 16.85 20.45 7.6M 12M 15.67
Buy not hit.
BSX 10/19 Test BO 43.8 +0.81 37.75 45.75 3.9M 3.3M 41.94
Current. Good volume surge off the 18 day MVA.
CEPH 12/14 Put 49.6 -0.17 49.19 45.51 1.1M 2M 50.65
Current. Tested the 200 day MVA on the Friday high, showing a doji.
COGN 01/02 Cup 23.93 -0.06 25.11 30.24 489K 1.5M 23.35
Buy Not Hit. Still looks super.
CVD 12/21 Cup hdl 24.88 -0.29 24.75 29.74 201K 581K 23.65
Current. Took a breather on some very low volume.
CVD 11/05 Test BO 24.88 -0.29 23.65 28 201K 581K 23.35
Current.
DANKY 12/17 Cup hdl 4.41 -0.1 4.62 5.65 217K 560K 4.25
Buy Not Hit.
ECL 10/30 Cup hdl 49.9 -0.15 49.11 56.55 423K 1M 48.15
Current. Still hugging the new high at 50.
ESPD 12/19 Test BO 18.08 +0.4 17.81 21.45 317K 675K 16.11
Buy Not Issued. Jumped but could not get the volume.
ETM 12/28 Put 49.38 +0.74 45.75 42 275K 325K 46.78
Current. Broke over the 50 day MVA Friday on rising volume though still below average. Right at resistance; needs to fail here.
EUNI 12/30 Cup hdl 6.2 +0.06 6.33 7.88 157K 204K 5.68
Buy Not Hit. Fitful move higher on some average volume. Not what we were looking for, but still can make the breakout.
EXPE 11/30 A Wedge 70.9 +0.24 78.25 88 1.4M 3.2M 72.77
Current. Still moving up off the 200 day MVA test.
HAR 11/21 Test 18 59.86 -0.99 61.6 70 169K 488K 59.45
Current. Took a breather Friday on low volume after the solid move off the 50 day MVA. Needs to hold at 59 on any further test.
HLTH 12/12 Cup hdl 8.91 +0.16 8.85 11.35 2.4M 3.1M 8.23
Buy Not Issued. Not bad action, showing much improved volume late in the week as HLTH tries for the breakout.
HSIC 12/09 Put 44.8 -0.8 44.15 40 469K 667K 46.05
Buy Not Issued. Tried 46 again but rolled over on some rising volume.
HTLD 12/28 Cup hdl 22.5 -0.3 23.28 27.94 203K 240K 22.05
Buy Not Hit.
IDBE 12/16 DB hdl 6.53 -0.12 6.65 8.55 43K 165K 6.15
Current. Looks ready to make its move.
IDBE 01/04 DB hdl 6.53 -0.12 6.85 8.55 43K 165K 6.37
New.
IDXC 12/02 Cup hdl 17.4 -0.15 17.65 21.25 230K 163K 16.85
Current. Still moving laterally in the handle, hugging the 18 day MVA.
IGEN 12/19 Test BO 42.2 -0.37 43.05 49.55 264K 450K 42.05
Current.
IGEN 11/16 DB hdl 42.2 -0.37 38.81 45 264K 300K 41.75
Current.
LMLP 12/07 Cup hdl 13.27 -0.28 10.75 12.96 235K 135K 12.25
Buy Not Issued.
LMLP 11/23 Cup hdl 13.27 -0.28 9.75 14.25 235K 135K 12.97
Current. Showing some cracks, selling down on rising, above average volume Friday after the long lateral consolidation. That is never a good sign. On alert to take gains if it breaches the 18 day MVA.
MATK 12/04 Test BO 24.19 -0.53 23.39 27.94 247K 300K 23.88
Current. Still testing at th e10 day MVA on low volume.
MERQ 12/11 Test BO 31.41 +0.16 31.55 38 1.3M 5M 29.94
Current. Now moving in a trading range from 29 to 32 on low volume. Thursday volume surged, an indication that it might be ready to make a breakout over the range this time.
MLHR 12/28 Put 18.86 -0.14 17.94 15.85 145K 425K 19.05
Current. Tried to clear the 50 day MVA Friday but started to stall.
MSN 12/21 Test BO 5.54 +0.38 5.92 7.45 133K 150K 4.94
Buy Not Hit. Solid move up off of the 50 day MVA, Friday rising on some increased volume.
MSN 12/04 Cup hdl 5.54 +0.38 4.85 6.35 133K 150K 4.75
Current.
MSN 11/23 Cup hdl 5.54 +0.38 4.15 5.68 133K 150K 4.75
Current.
MVL 11/04 BO 9.16 -0.07 8.74 10.75 425K 400K 8.35
Current. Still working higher on volume, but unable to put together a breakout over the high at 9.50 last week.
NBIX 10/08 Rv H&S 45.06 -0.35 44.85 51.75 330K 1.1M 45.45
Current. Testing the 50 day MVA on lower volume. Good accumulation, good money flow.
NSCN 12/22 Pennant 17.46 -0.22 17.24 21.24 1.7M 1.8M 16.03
Current. Tried the big move on volume but reversed. Still looks good but intraday reversals deserve caution.
NTES 12/19 Test BO 13.14 +1.04 12 14.45 568K 550K 11.12
Current. Solid volume move Friday.
PFGC 12/09 Put 34.42 +0.04 33.97 31.75 204K 475K 34.75
Current. Struggled at the 200 day MVA Friday and then turned down.
PNRA 11/07 Cup hdl 35.67 -0.32 34.38 39.75 432K 1.2M 34.12
Current. Took a breather Friday, selling back but holding the 10 day MVA after the big Thursday move.
PPD 11/14 Test BO 26.18 -0.44 25.51 30.55 505K 450K 26.25
Current. On the bubble, still holding support at 26 but has lost its momentum for now. Long term holds are in decent shape as long as it holds here.
QCOM 12/21 Test 50 35.7 -1.44 39.15 48 16M 18M 36.41
Buy Not Hit.
QCOM 12/04 Test 18 35.7 -1.44 40.85 50 16M 18M 37.99
Current. Struggling, breaking below the lows in the recent consolidation on rising, above average volume. Needs to turn back up here.
QCOM 11/07 Test BO 35.7 -1.44 34.78 42 16M 18M 38.14
Current.
QLGC 11/07 Test BO 37.77 +1.37 41.4 50 11M 25M 39.88
QLGC 08/17 CCall 37.77 +1.37 36.48 0 11M 12M 37
Current.
RBK 01/02 DB hdl 30.5 -0.38 30.25 38.85 929K 680K 28.45
Current. Took a breather after the strong move.
RIMM 12/22 Put 13.5 -0.22 12.94 9.95 695K 1.7M 14.04
Buy Not Issued. Stalled at the 50 day MVA Friday on rising volume. Looks ready to roll back down.
RINO 10/24 Test BO 18.03 +0.04 17.35 20.75 205K 225K 16.95
Current. Gapped higher Friday to 18.42 but could not hold all the move as it continues its move off of the 50 day MVA.
RINO 08/28 Cup hdl 18.03 +0.04 13.8 20 205K 300K 16.95
Current.
ROIAK 12/28 Rv H&S 14.19 -0.04 14.55 17.49 279K 650K 13.53
Buy Not Hit. Hesitating on the move up here unlike prior attempts. Needs to make that move.
SCIO 12/03 Cup hdl 33.43 -0.04 33.05 39.65 576K 1.6M 30.74
Buy Not Issued.
SINA 12/31 Test BO 7.41 +0.53 6.25 8.25 1.5M 950K 6.48
Current. Another strong volume move higher.
SINA 12/04 Test BO 7.41 +0.53 5.58 8.25 1.5M 950K 6.48
Current.
STK 12/26 Cup hdl 23.54 +1.17 23.21 27.88 1.1M 1.2M 21.59
Current. Solid breakout on volume.
SWKS 01/03 Test 50 9.32 +0.07 9.55 12 2.5M 5M 8.68
New.
SYK 12/21 Rv H&S 68.68 +0.66 67.53 77.62 873K 1.2M 62.84
Current. Another move up on above average volume.
SYMC 01/02 Test 50 43.85 +1.17 43.05 51 3.6M 4.1M 40.45
Current. Nice surge as expected.
TECH 01/03 Put 28.16 -0.83 27.88 24 626K 400K 29.21
New.
UNTD 11/30 Test BO 16.54 +0.55 16.25 19.65 434K 1M 15.55
Current.
UPL 10/19 A Wedge 10 +0.05 9.68 11.75 240K 345K 9.35
Current. Doji at the high at 10. This is the level it needs to clear this time around.
URBN 12/22 Put 23.36 -0.73 23.36 20.22 200K 500K 24.65
Current.
UTHR 11/12 DB hdl 17.05 -0.05 17.65 21.45 59K 295K 16.21
Current. Still in the long lateral move. It is a decent consolidation but has run out of steam for the time being.
VAR 12/18 Rv H&S 50.43 -0.02 50.25 58 353K 700K 48.05
Current. Still trying to get free of 50, but volume is not there.
VRNT 11/23 Cup hdl 22.03 -0.46 15.85 21.55 343K 113K 19.94
Current. Took a breather Friday after the strong Thursday surge.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 17.03 +0.08 19.76 20 4.1M 8.5M 17.45
Current.
VZ 12/04 Cup hdl 40.45 +0.28 41 47.5 5.2M 11M 38.13
Buy Not Hit.
VZ 11/23 Cup hdl 40.45 +0.28 41 45 5.2M 11M 38.25
Current. Up again Friday but on lower volume. Trying to make that next move up in the pattern.
VZ 10/10 Test 50 40.45 +0.28 34.75 42 5.2M 10M 38.25
Current.
WCN 12/31 BO 38.7 -0.2 39.1 46.45 222K 425K 36.94
Current. Rested Friday.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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