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stock watch, stock option
Begin Part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good moves: GRMN; KLAC; BRCM; MERQ; QLGC; QCOM; RBK SINA; VZ
Best Plays:
1) CCCG: Making the move.
2) POSS: Nice breakout test.
3) BBBY: Solid and looks ready.
4) IDBE: Very tight handle.
5) MEDI: Still looks solid.
6) GPN: Doji on the 10 day MVA.
7) SAFC: Nice volume spike.
8) YHOO: Ready for a breakout and showing good volume.
New Plays:
Upside:
CCCG (CCC Information Services--$19.60; +1.11; no options): Management services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cccg.html
STATUS: Cup. This sector continues to improve as economic prospects do likewise. CCCG broke out of a nice cup at 14 in October and rallied to over 20. There it formed this current 9-week base sporting solid accumulation at 3 accumulation weeks to 1 distribution week. The pattern is good and CCCG has plenty of upside room to run on another breakout.
Volume: 82.929K Avg Volume: 115.136K
BUY POINT: $20.05 Volume=173K Target=$25.12 Stop=$18.65
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cccg.html
Play Date: 01/06/2003
POSS (Possis Medical--$17.78; +0.58; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/poss.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. POSS formed a 10-month cup w/handle base and broke out late in December on a massive volume surve over three sessions. It has spent the past three sessions pulling back to the 10 day MVA just below 17 on lower volume. Monday it jumped up off 17 on rising, strong volume. It looks to be resuming the breakout after the first test. Accumulation is solid 11 up weeks on rising volume (accumulation) to 7 down weeks on rising volume (distribution). Money flow is screaming up ahead of the price. Looks ready for more.
Volume: 276.949K Avg Volume: 111.045K
BUY POINT: $18.35 Volume=167K Target=$22.12 Stop=$16.75
POSITION: UPQ DC - April $15c (77 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/poss.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 12/07/2002
AFCO (Applied Films--$20.44; +0.73; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/afco.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. AFCO formed the current 10-month cup base, the past 5 weeks moving through an ascending wedge using the 18 day MVA (19.70) as the bottom of the wedge. Volume edged higher Monday as AFCO moved up toward the breakout level. We will watch for a strong volume move to enter positions.
Volume: 156.455K Avg Volume: 186.181K
BUY POINT: $20.85 Volume=225K Target=$25 Stop=$18.79
POSITION: UOF DW - April $17.50c (55 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/afco.html
Play Date: 12/16/2002
AVO (Advanced Medical Optics--$11.93; -0.37; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avo.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Reversed course and fell to the 18 day MVA on rising, above average volume. Not the move we were looking for but still in the pattern. Accumulation is positive at 4 accumulation weeks (up price on rising volume) to 3 distribution weeks (down price on rising volume). Not great.
Volume: 214.9K Avg Volume: 123.363K
BUY POINT: New: $12.45 (orig. $12.06) Volume=210K Target=$14.45 Stop=$11.22
POSITION: AVO DB - April $10c (72 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/avo.html
Play Date: 01/02/2003
BBBY (Bed, Bath & Beyond--$36.08; +0.8; optionable): Housewares
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bbby.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Started higher Monday but did not garner much volume. Still looks very good and looking for some volume as BBBY moves through the buy point. Solid accumulation at 6 accumulation weeks to 4 distribution weeks. Aggressive over 36.23 on a big volume surge.
Volume: 2.672M Avg Volume: 3.605M
BUY POINT: $37.55 Volume=5.7M Target=$45 Stop=$34.92
POSITION: BHQ EG - May $35c (61 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bbby.html
BRCM (Broadcom--$17.66; +1.16; optionable): Communication chips
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brcm.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. Making the move with a good jump on rising volume. Just what we wanted. Can still get into some positions here on a move over 18.
Volume: 9.176M Avg Volume: 10.637M
BUY POINT: New: over 18 (orig. $16.85) Volume=12M Target=$20.45 Stop=$15.67
POSITION: RCQ EC - May $15c (69 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/brcm.html
Play Date: 11/13/2002
COLM (Columbia Sportswear--$45.98; +0.74; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/colm.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. Held the 10 day MVA and rose Monday, but a tepid move. Still solid and want it to show more volume as it moves up for more positions. Held up very well in the retail selling.
Volume: 298.201K Avg Volume: 349.59K
BUY POINT: New: $46.55 (orig. $41.96) Volume=389K Target=$48.45 Stop=$44.25
POSITION: TQQ DH - April $40c (60 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/colm.html
Play Date: 12/19/2002
GPN (Global Payments--$31.77; +0.13; optionable): Management services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gpn.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still moving along the 10 day MVA, showing a doji as it tapped that level on the session low (31.54) as volume jumped above average. It did not particpate in the big rally and that is a concern, but stocks breakout and rally at different points in a move. We will be patient and see if it gives us a strong move out of this lateral pattern that follows its breakout from its ascending wedge.
Volume: 210.4K Avg Volume: 162.318K
BUY POINT: New: 32.31 (orig. $31.55) Volume=225K Target=$38 Stop=$30.12
POSITION: GPN EF - May $30c (71 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gpn.html
Play Date: 12/16/2002
IDBE (ID Biomedical--$6.53; 0; no options): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/idbe.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Continuing in the handle to its 9-month base, IDBE showed a tight doji Monday that tapped the 18 day MVA on the session low (6.41). Volume edged higher but was still very low. Again, stocks make breakouts at different points in a rally and we will be patient and see if IBDE can provide the breakout.
Volume: 55.8K Avg Volume: 102K
BUY POINT: $6.65 Volume=165K Target=$8.55 Stop=$6.15
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/idbe.html
Play Date: 01/03/2003
KLAC (KLA Tencor--$40.84; +1.84; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/klac.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA (37.52). KLAC did as expected, blasting over some resistance at 40 on rising, average volume. Money flow remains solid. A bit far to take new positions at this point.
Volume: 15.608M Avg Volume: 15.555M
BUY POINT: No new positions at this time. Orig. $39.25 Volume=12M Target=$45.25 Stop=$36.55
POSITION: KCQ CG - Mar. $35c (72 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/klac.html
Play Date: 01/03/2003
MEDI (Medimmune--$28.11; -0.09; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/medi.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. MEDI lost some ground Monday, gapping down to the 18 day MVA (27.40) but recovering nicely to close just over the 200 day MVA. Still looking for the breakout from the wedge that sports accumulation of 4 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume.
Volume: 3.889M Avg Volume: 4.641M
BUY POINT: $28.55 Volume=5M Target=$33.88 Stop=$26.98
POSITION: MEQ FE - June $25c (MEQ FE) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/medi.html
Play Date: 12/14/2002
MRCY (Mercury Computer Systems--$31.24; -0.32; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrcy.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. MRCY is still in the pattern, riding up the 50 day MVA at 30, using that as the bottom of the pattern. The sector is a good one, and while we are somewhat concerned it did not participate in the Monday rally, it is still holding the pattern and continue to show good accumulation.
Volume: 101.715K Avg Volume: 212.272K
BUY POINT: $32.55 Volume=350K Target=$37.85 Stop=$29.43
POSITION: QYR EF - May $30c (63 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mrcy.html
Play Date: 12/07/2002
SAFC (Safeco--$36.84; +1.13; optionable): Property & casualty
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/safc.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. SAFC is making the breakout though volume is not quite what we wanted. It was a good surge, however, and on further movement Tuesday on continued solid volume it is a good buy.
Volume: 1.226M Avg Volume: 992.954K
BUY POINT: New: $37.05 (orig. $36.69) Volume=1.5M Target=$41 Stop=$34.12
POSITION: SAQ EF - May $30c (70 delta, low OI) or SAQ EG - May $35c (65 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/safc.html
SOHU (Sohu.com--$7.68; +0.6; no options): Internet information provider
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sohu.html
STATUS: Breakout. Continued the move on an excellent volume surge that gave us the entry. No new positions at this point.
Volume: 1.95M Avg Volume: 544.272K
BUY POINT: $7.15 Volume=800K Target=$9 Stop=$6.65
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sohu.html
Play Date: 11/30/2002
UNTD (United Online--$16.9; +0.36; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/untd.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Rose but on below average volume. Looks ready to make the move in the 5-week ascending triangle. Looking for a breakout to kick off the next strong move up.
Volume: 485.62K Avg Volume: 829.818K
BUY POINT: New: $17.05 (orig. $16.25) Volume=1M Target=$20.50 (new) Stop=$15.55
POSITION: QAB CC - Mar. $15c (65 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/untd.html
Play Date: 12/11/2002
YHOO (Yahoo!--$18.94; +0.84; optionable): Internet information
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/y/yhoo.html
STATUS: Breakout. YHOO is the quiet performer, rallying off the 50 day MVA starting Thursday. Volume was average on the move and we are looking for it to garner stronger volume as it continuees to move over the recent high at 19.
Volume: 10.648M Avg Volume: 12.072M
BUY POINT: New: 19.25 (orig. $17.32) Volume=20M Target=$22.75 Stop=$16.11
POSITION: YHZ DC - April $15c (70 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/yhoo.html
Downside
Play Date: 12/09/2002
HSIC (Henry Schein--$44.9; +0.1; optionable): Wholesale medical equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hsic.html
STATUS: Put. Did not participate in the rally, stalling at the short term MVA and showing a doji on rising volume. The failure to rally shows some weakness but need to see it roll down on volume.HSIC continues to struggle below the 50 day MVA (46.55) and at the 18 day MVA (45.07), unable to hold a
Volume: 503.269K Avg Volume: 613.727K
BUY POINT: $44.15 Volume=667K Target=$40 Stop=$46.05
POSITION: HQE NI - Feb. $45p (-47 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hsic.html
Play Date: 12/21/2002
JAKK (Jakks Pacific--$13.88; +0.07; optionable): Toys and games
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jakk.html
STATUS: Put. Head and shoulders breakdown. Gapped up to the 18 day MVA but then sold back down to the 50 day MVA on the close. Low volume on the attempted move higher. Need to see JAKK break back down on rising volume without any more rally attempts.
Volume: 69.1K Avg Volume: 212.681K
BUY POINT: $13.24 Volume=325K Target=$11 Stop=$14.65
POSITION: UFF OC - Mar. $15p (-58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jakk.html
Play Date: 12/09/2002
PFGC (Performance Food Group--$34.27; -0.15; optionable): Wholesale food
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pfgc.html
STATUS: Put. Tried to rally again, hitting the 50 day MVA on the high (34.84) and then rolling over to close at the 18 day MVA as volume edged higher. Has to get below 34 on volume in the next couple of sessions or we will look at closing it out.
Volume: 320.204K Avg Volume: 395.363K
BUY POINT: $33.97 Volume=475K Target=$31.75 Stop=$34.75
POSITION: PGU MG - Jan. $35p (-50 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pfgc.html
Play Date: 01/03/2003
TECH (Techne--$27.19; -0.97; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tech.html
STATUS: Put. Downgraded before the open and dove lower. Hit 26.21 on the low and then managed a recovery but was still down hard.
Volume: 1.104M Avg Volume: 431.863K
BUY POINT: $27.88 Volume=400K Target=$24 Stop=$29.21
POSITION: TGQ NF - Feb. $30p (-60 delta) or TGQ PF - April $30p (-53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tech.html
Play Date: 12/22/2002
URBN (Urban Outfitters--$22.94; -0.42; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/urbn.html
STATUS: Put. Tried to rally, running up to 24.44 on the high, still below the 50 day MVA near 25 and then reversed and sold lower on a big volume spike. That looks like a classic reversal. With the improving economic conditions we will have to be careful of retail stores.
Volume: 503.851K Avg Volume: 403.681K
BUY POINT: $23.36 Volume=500K Target=$20.22 Stop=$24.65
POSITION: URQ OE - Mar. $25p (-49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/urbn.html
End Part 2 of 3
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stock watch
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