|
|
us stock market, stock split
Begin Part 2 of 3
We apologize for the late report. Jon Johnson is to undergo a medical procedure tomorrow morning unexpectedly and has had some difficulties preparing for it. Again we apologize and will have the rest of the report to you as soon as possible.
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: ASKJ; BRCM; MATK; ROST; UNTD; TECH
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers.
NEW PLAYS: Splitting stocks are often market leaders and thus we do not just focus on them at points where they are expected to announce or before they actually split. They provide many opportunities to invest in them and this section is where we can look at some former split stocks and other stocks that are in good position to make us money. In addition, there are emerging trends in the recent move off of the double bottom, and we want to capture those stocks emerging from the obscurity as well.
Upside:
MRGE (Merge Technologies--$6.72; +0.16; no options): Data storage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrge.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Working in a 5 week handle to the 7.5 month base, MRGE is working along the 50 day MVA (6.40), tapping it again on the Tuesday low. Accumulation is solid at 9 up weeks on rising volume to 4 down weeks on rising volume. Money flow is excellent. One of the better sectors in technology.
Volume: 10.002K Avg Volume: 52.045K
BUY POINT: $7.25 Volume=79K Target=$9 Stop=$6.74
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mrge.html
New Post-Splits
FBC (Flagstar Bancorp--$22.05; -0.05; no options): Savings & Loans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fbc.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. FBC made one last run after its split in June and then fell back to form the current 6.5 month base. It is sporting excellent accumulation at 8 up weeks on rising volume to 3 down weeks on rising volume and enjoyed a nice volume surge moving up to the handle. It may still have some more lateral moves to make in the handle, but Tuesday it showed a tight doji over the 10 day MVA at 21.50 and that can indicate it is ready to make its move higher. We look for the breakout on strong volume.
Volume: 144.1K Avg Volume: 132.909K
BUY POINT: $22.53 Volume=199K Target=$25.94 Stop=$20.95
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fbc.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Upside:
Play Date: 10/21/2002
AMZN (Amazon.com--$21.57; +0.87; optionable): Internet retailer
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amzn.html
STATUS: After the short sellers got excited late in December AMZN has made a strong recovery, breaking over the 50 day MVA (21.26) on rising, above average volume Tuesday. It has shown great accumulation heading into the recent selling, and we are looking at picking up more positions on a move over the December consolidation range highs.
Volume: 9.619M Avg Volume: 8.555M
BUY POINT: New: $22.72 (orig. $20.32) Volume=10M Target=$24.38 Stop=$21.75
POSITION: ZQN DO - April $17.50c (69 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/amzn.html
Play Date: 12/02/2002
IDXC (IDX Systems--$17.94; -0.02; optionable): Healthcare software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/idxc.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. We have seen some good moves in this sector, and IDXC is working on a tight handle the past three weeks to its 8-month base. The handle has tested 17 on the low and has a top just over 18. It is working along the 18 day MVA (17.40) and looks ready to make the breakout.
Volume: 86.974K Avg Volume: 145.863K
BUY POINT: $18.66 (orig. $17.65) Volume=163K Target=$20.55 Stop=$16.85
POSITION: XQW EC - May $15c (72 delta, no OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/idxc.html
Play Date: 12/19/2002
IGEN (Igen International--$42.1; -0.5; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/igen.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. Still holding the 18 day MVA at 42 on this pullback, holding on lower, average volume. Money flow remains strong as it tests the strong move over 44. This is the second test of the 18 day MVA since the breakout. Looks ready.
Volume: 225.644K Avg Volume: 244.545K
BUY POINT: $43.05 Volume=450K Target=$49.55 Stop=$42.05
POSITION: GQ FH - June $40c (66 delta) or GQ CH - Mar. $40c (64 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/igen.html
Play Date: 11/30/2002
RHD (RH Donnelley--$29; +0.12; optionable): Research services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rhd.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working in the handle of its larger 8.5 month base. Tuesday RHD showed another tight doji on the 10 day MVA as volume gave a tremendous spike (a 'get ready' spike). Money flow continues to run up ahead of the stock price, paving the way for a breakout. Looks good.
Volume: 360.7K Avg Volume: 128.909K
BUY POINT: $30.17 Volume=267K Target=$25.94 Stop=$28.06
POSITION: RHD EE - May $25c (80 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rhd.html
Play Date: 01/02/2003
SYMC (Symantec--$44.61; -0.3; optionable): Internet security software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/symc.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. A nice run off the 50 day MVA and is now testing back to the mid December high at 44 as volume trails off. This lower volume pullback on an off day is just what we like to see after such a move. SYMC will most likely work laterally at this level for another day or so and then try to resume the breakout. The pattern has turned into a short double bottom and now forming the handle. Good action.
Volume: 2.884M Avg Volume: 3.47M
BUY POINT: New: $44.75 (orig. $43.05) Volume=4.1M Target=$51 Stop=$40.04
POSITION: SYQ DH - April $40c (79 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/symc.html
Play Date: 11/30/2002
UNTD (United Online--$17.9; +1; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/untd.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Making the breakout again Tuesday on super volume. Still a but at this point for new positions.
Volume: 1.366M Avg Volume: 827.227K
BUY POINT: New: 18.05 (orig. $17.05, $16.25) Volume=1M Target=$20.50 (new) Stop=$15.55
POSITION: QAB CC - Mar. $15c (65 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/untd.html
Play Date: 12/17/2002
VSAT (Viasat--$12.16; -0.11; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vsat.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. VSAT is working through a 5-week ascending wedge as the trailer to its 10 month base. Money flow is moving up well ahead of the stock as it approaches the breakout point.
Volume: 90.958K Avg Volume: 199.636K
BUY POINT: $12.26 Volume=320K Target=$15.45 Stop=$11.35
POSITION: IQS EB - May $10c (70 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vsat.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 11/13/2002
COLM (Columbia Sportswear--$44.77; -1.22; optionable): Sportswear. Forecast to announce a split 1-30-03 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings or on 2-6-03 in conjunction with a board meeting. The company has not confirmed the date for the board meeting, but based upon our research this is the date for the meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 5-2-01 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $70. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-16-02 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/colm.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. Fell through the 18 day MVA on strong volume, but is still above some key support at 44. Some warnings in retail hurt some retail stocks. COLM has been a strong performer and we will give it some room here.
Volume: 892.81K Avg Volume: 335.545K
BUY POINT: New: $46.55 (orig. $41.96) Volume=389K Target=$48.45 Stop=$44.25
POSITION: TQQ DH - April $40c (60 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/colm.html
Play Date: 10/08/2002
NBIX (Neurocrine Biosciences--$45.75; +0.58; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 2-4-03 in conjunction with earnings. At this time the company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the announcement.
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that NBIX has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-23-02 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nbix.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. A leader off the July low, NBIX ran into resistance at 50 in late December (old high at 54) and fell back on lower, below average volume. Solid accumulation in the big, 12-month base at 14 accumulation weeks to 6 distribution weeks. Tuesday it rallied on higher volume but gave most of it back. Looks as if it is flexing its muscles a bit. We are looking to use this test of the 50 day MVA (44.78) to hold and provide an entry point for new positions on this play.
Volume: 355.443K Avg Volume: 571.318K
BUY POINT: New: $46.15 (orig. $44.85) Volume=750K Target=$55 Stop=$45.45
POSITION: UOT EI - May $45c (57 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nbix.html
Play Date: 10/19/2002
BSX (Boston Scientific--$44.92; +0.25; optionable): Medial supplies. Forecast to announce a split on 2-4-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the announcement
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 8-27-98 at a stock price of $40. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-7-02. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bsx.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. Continues its slow move higher on lower and lower volume. Not looking at new positions at this point as the stock rallies on lower volume. Want to see a better entry point for new positions.
Volume: 2.067M Avg Volume: 2.24M
BUY POINT: New: Non new buys right now (orig. 44.05; $37.75) Volume=3.3M Target=Initial $45.75 Stop=$40.55
POSITION: Stock for now.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bsx.html
Play Date: 11/30/2002
EXPE (Expedia--$65.75; +1.78; optionable): Online travel. Forecast to announce a split on 1-26-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that EXPE has ever split its stock. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/expe.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Recovering off of the 200 day MVA (63.53) after ROOM's warning. The next real test is over 68. Aggressive play at that time and need to see strong volume up over that point.
Volume: 3.31M Avg Volume: 2.597M
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 68.05 Breakout: $78.25 Volume=3M Target=$88 Stop=$72.77
POSITION: UED DO - April $75c (61 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/expe.html
Play Date: 12/12/2002
ROST (Ross Stores--$43.97; +0.98; optionable): Apparel stores. Forecast to announce a split on 3-19-03 in conjunction with earnings. At this time the company cannot confirm a time for the release.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rost.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 8-26-99 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $43.30. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-23-02 at which time authorized shares were increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Rallying over the 50 day MVA just below 44 Tuesday as volume moved above average. A very nice recovery indeed.
Volume: 1.418M Avg Volume: 1.137M
BUY POINT: $45.85 Volume=1.6M Target=$52.75 Stop=$42.64
POSITION: REQ EV - May $42.50c (66 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rost.html
Play Date: 12/21/2002
SYK (Stryker--$68.4; +0.25; optionable): Medical supplies and instruments. Forecast to announce a split on 1-27-03 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 4-19-00 at a stock price of $73.
The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-23-02 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/syk.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Broke out of the small cup with handle last week and is testing that move on declining, below average volume. Tuesday SYK tested the 10 day MVA on the low (67.56) and rallied back. Looks ready to continue the move Wednesday or Thursday.
Volume: 542.9K Avg Volume: 748.227K
BUY POINT: New: $69.05 (orig. $67.53). Volume=1.2M Target=$77.62 Stop=$62.84
POSITION: SYK FM - June $65c (70 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/syk.html
Play Date: 10/28/2002
WFMI (Whole Foods Market--$50.86; -1.71; optionable): Health food grocery. Forecast to announce a split on 2-12-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the announcement.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 5-10-01 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $50.40. The annual shareholder meeting was on 3-25-02 at which time authorized shares were increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfmi.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. The breakout test turned to trouble as WFMI fell to the 50 day MVA on the close as volume shot higher. It is still above the breakout point but looking wobbly. Needs to hold here and mount a recovery through the rest of the week.
Volume: 2.473M Avg Volume: 749K
BUY POINT: New: 54.05 (orig. $50.11) Volume=975K Target=Initial $57.51 Stop=$49.94
POSITION: FMQ BI - Feb. $45c (64 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wfmi.html
PRE-SPLIT
Play Date: 10/29/2002
FRX (Forest Labs--$105.66; +0.07; optionable): Drugs. Splits 2:1 on 1-09-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/frx.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. After exploding higher on the upside earnings alert FRX has moved laterally on lower volume, holding tight at 105 with a tight doji ahead of its split. We are looking for a move up from here on rising volume. Doing just what we wanted so far.
Volume: 1.275M Avg Volume: 1.934M
BUY POINT: 107.05. Volume=3.1M Target=$115 Stop=$98
POSITION: FHA BS - Feb. $95c (63 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/frx.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 01/02/2003
COH (Coach--$34.59; +0.8; optionable): High-end handbags, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coh.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. Making a solid move on super volume Tuesday, hitting the buy point and looking strong backed by the solid accumulation at 7 accumulation weeks to just 3 distribution weeks since May. Still a buy at this point.
Volume: 1.602M Avg Volume: 839.09K
BUY POINT: New: $34.75 (orig. $34.11) Volume=1.3M Target=$40.94 Stop=$31.72
POSITION: COH EF - May $30c (73 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coh.html
Play Date: 11/09/2002
EXPD (Expeditors Intl.--$33.46; -0.25; optionable): Air delivery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/expd.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. The past month EXPD has formed a handle to its 6 month base formed after the June split. Volume the past two weeks has dropped way off as it should in the handle as it works toward the breakout. Accumulation is solid in the base at 8 accumulation weeks to 4 distribution weeks. Waiting for the next to be a breakout.
Volume: 674.783K Avg Volume: 716.863K
BUY POINT: New: 34.54 (orig. $32.08) Volume=750K Target=$38 Stop=$32.45
POSITION: URP EF - May $30c (75 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/expd.html
End Part 2 of 3
|
us stock market
stock split
|
