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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin Part 2 of 2
We apologize for the late report. Jon Johnson is to undergo a medical procedure tomorrow morning unexpectedly and has had some difficulties preparing for it. Again we apologize for the delay.
SUBSCRIBER QUESTIONS
This question deals with a specific stock but it is appicable to any.
Q: One of your picks, JBHT, was within cents of your buy point...good volume...pushed over 30 at the close. They then received a downgrade buy a brokerage company last night to neutral from outperform...so the stock is down this morning on HUGE volume. What is your experience in such cases...is it better to just join the crowd & bail out of the stock....or, are these downgrades sometimes temporary phenomena to scare out the "weak hands" and, in turn, a buying opportunity in which case the primary trend will re-assert itself? I know you've been following JBHT for a while, it was on your list last night, so your analysis would be appreciated!
A: Downgrades have different impacts in different markets. Most all stocks take a hit on the initial news. After that much depends on the market and the strength of the stock. As we saw during the downtrend, a downgrade could take a tentative move higher and thrash it. As the market improved we saw valuation downgrades. With the market still in a tentative recovery, some survived the downgrades, some did not. Stronger stocks will take a hit for a few sessions and then recover. How do you know it is strong? Does it hold near support on the news? Does it gap below and then recover right away? One of the keys we typically look at is whether the stock did in fact hold support or hold the current pattern. If it does, the knee-jerk reaction to the analysts has a good chance of blowing over. In JBHT's case the stock managed to hold the pattern and may recover. As it had not hit the buy point we can wait and see if it regroups. If it does not hold the pattern or breaks support on such volume on the close the chances of recovery diminish. We can go ahead and exit or give it a session to recover the pattern.
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THE PLAYS
Good movers: BEAS; BRCM; COGN; DISK; HLTH; NBTY; UNTD
Tuesday Plays:
NBTY: Surging on strong volume.
WCS: Still in a very nice pattern.
COGN: Nice move higher on volume.
JBHT: Turned lower on a downgrde but held up.
YHOO: Gapped lower but then rallied on volume.
Best Plays:
1) MRD: Nice pattern in a solid sector.
2) ACTI: Looks ready for the breakout of the pattern.
3) Continuing: CGX still looks nice.
New Plays:
MRD (Macdermid--$23; -0.03; no options): Specialty chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrd.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. MRD is in a 8 month base, trying to break to a new 52 week high. The handle is forming right on top of the 18 day MVA on the pullback the past two weeks. Thursday it reached way down below the 18 day MVA at 23 and rallied back on a big, big volume spike. Accumulation in the base is excellent at 15 up weeks on rising volume to just 5 down weeks on rising volume. Many stocks in this sector showing solid accumulation.
Volume: 59.7K Avg Volume: 90.681K
BUY POINT: $23.65 Volume=136K Target=$28.38 Stop=$21.99
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/mrd.html
SY (Sybase--$14.4; +0.27; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sy.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. SY formed a flat ascending wedge the past two months, using the 50 day MVA just over 13 as the support for the base. Accumulation is solid since August at 9 up weeks on rising volume to 5 down weeks on rising volume. Tuesday it started the breakout from the pattern on solid, rising above average volume. Looking for more positions on this move higher.
Volume: 533.5K Avg Volume: 744.863K
BUY POINT: $14.55 Volume=1.1M Target=$17.45 Stop=$13.53
POSITION: SY FV - June $12.50c (73 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/sy.html
Revisited:
Play Date: 01/04/2003
ACTI (Activecard--$8.97; -0.12; no options): Security software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acti.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. After the strong move Monday on volume, ACTI fell back some Tuesday on much lower volume. Still looks very solid with good accumulation and money flow continuing to move up ahead of the price. Looking for another move to a high.
Volume: 40.817K Avg Volume: 151.363K
BUY POINT: New: $9.15 (orig. $8.95) Volume=225K Target=$10.75 Stop=$8.28
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/acti.html
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: CUB, EBAY, HOTT; LOW, NOC, PG, QLGC, RCII, SRCL, WM
These are the stocks that our subscribers vote to put in a 'portfolio' to track their progress and comment upon when they reach buy points, sell points, or levels to write some covered calls on. They are not covered every report, but when something interesting is developing we take note.
Some great picks for the portfolio. We had a late surge of votes and will roll the portfolio out this week.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
Play Date: 11/23/2002
HOTT (Hot Topic--$24.48; +0.87; no options):Clothing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hott.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. HOTT is surging up off of the 50 day MVA at 23, rallying the past two sessions on strong volume. Looking to clear the December consolidation for new positions.
Volume: 1.249M Avg Volume: 867.363K
BUY POINT: New: $25.05 (orig. $23.90) Volume=1.5M Target=$28 Stop=$22.45
POSITION: - Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/hott.html
CONTINUING/WATCHLIST: These are stocks that are current plays (the buy point hit), waiting for the buy point to be hit (buy not hit), or buy not made for various reasons (buy alert not issued). The date references the date the play first appeared on the report. Pivot is the buy point.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
$SOX 12/07 Test 50 333.42 +1.73 335.15 385 0 0 313.94
Current. Doji that tapped 343 on the high. If it cannot rally early Wednesday we will look at exiting.
ACTI 01/04 Pennant 8.97 -0.12 8.95 10.75 41K 225K 8.28
Buy Not Issued.
AGU 12/30 A Wedge 11.37 -0.28 11.55 13.85 240K 357K 11.05
Current. Turned and testing the 10 day MVA on lower volume. Needs to hold here.
AIG 12/18 Put 60.93 -1.21 58.55 54 5.4M 7M 59.15
Current. Turned lower again, falling to the 50 day MVA on some rising volume. Will see if it can give us a drop below 60.
ALN 12/07 Test BO 10.22 -0.02 9.86 11.85 520K 412K 9.17
ALN 11/09 Test BO 10.22 -0.02 7.28 9.75 520K 200K 9.25
Current. Big volume spike as it went nowhere. Time to be careful.
AMZN 10/21 Cup hdl 21.57 +0.87 20.32 24.38 9.6M 10M 21.75
Current. Nice move over the 50 day MVA on above average volume.
ANT 12/11 Put 25.1 -0.1 22.45 20 232K 200K 23.55
Current. Volume rose as ANT went nowhere. Held it but won't if it starts up at all.
AVID 12/07 Test 18 23.65 -0.15 21 25 429K 500K 21.75
Current. Still moving up the 10 day MVA.
AVID 10/30 Cup hdl 23.65 -0.15 15.65 25 429K 177K 21.75
Current.
BBBY 01/02 Cup 36.2 +0.12 37.55 45 3.1M 5.7M 34.92
Buy Not Hit. Still looking good.
BEAS 12/19 Test BO 13.72 +1.05 11.77 14.74 16M 16M 10.94
Current. Rallying on strong volume.
BRCM 01/02 Test 50 18.55 +0.89 16.85 20.45 15M 12M 15.67
Current.
BRCM 11/16 BO 18.55 +0.89 15.9 20 15M 15M 14.79
Current.
CGX 12/03 Cup hdl 23 +0.25 22 26.45 45K 65K 21.94
Current. Holding the 18 day MVA well as volume rose. Looks ready.
COGN 01/02 Cup 25.29 +1.31 25.11 30.24 1.6M 1.5M 23.35
Current. Nice volume move.
CRAY 01/04 Test 18 7.72 +0.07 7.7 9.85 1.5M 1M 7.16
Current. Gapped lower but then recovered.
CRAY 11/30 A Wedge 7.72 +0.07 7.38 8.85 1.5M 346K 7.15
Current.
CRAY 10/21 Cup 7.72 +0.07 4.28 8 1.5M 346K 7.15
Target Hit.
CUB 07/06 Cup 19.4 -0.26 0 0 151K 0 0
DANKY 12/17 Cup hdl 4.7 -0.04 4.62 5.65 542K 560K 4.25
Buy Not Issued. Tried to make the move but stalled.
DISK 12/28 Cup hdl 2.66 +0.21 2.61 3.15 63K 37K 2.38
Current. Nice high volume move.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 72.57 -0.43 69.45 77 7.1M 12M 68.05
Current. Took a rest on lower volume.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 72.57 -0.43 62.45 71 7.1M 12M 68.05
Current.
ECL 10/30 Cup hdl 51.38 +0.49 49.11 56.55 846K 1M 48.15
Current. Moving well on a volume surge.
EUNI 12/30 Cup hdl 6.8 +0.1 6.55 8.15 261K 204K 5.78
Current.
GRMN 11/06 Cup hdl 31.32 -0.41 22.34 34 669K 198K 28.95
Current. Took a breather.
GTRC 01/04 Put 20.8 +3.94 15.88 14 2M 400K 16.35
Buy Not Hit. Moving the other way.
HLTH 12/12 Cup hdl 9.75 +0.4 8.85 11.35 14M 3.1M 8.23
Current. Super move.
HOTT 11/23 A Wedge 24.48 +0.87 23.9 28 1.2M 1.5M 22.45
Current.
JBHT 12/12 A Wedge 28.97 -1.18 30.18 35.25 863K 725K 28.07
Buy Not Hit.
LOOK 12/22 Cup hdl 2.98 -0.01 2.94 4.95 756K 950K 2.58
Current. Held steady on lower volume.
LOW 07/06 Test 50 36.95 +0.45 0 0 7.1M 0 0
MLHR 12/28 Put 18.65 -0.38 17.94 15.85 384K 425K 19.05
Exited.
MRD 01/07 Cup hdl 23 -0.03 23.65 28.38 60K 136K 21.99
New.
MRK 12/21 Test 50 59.11 -0.77 58.05 67 6.4M 9.5M 55.94
Current. Volume rose as it tapped 60 again. That is the next resistance and it may take a breather first.
MRK 12/07 Test BO 59.11 -0.77 59.15 67 6.4M 9.5M 55.94
Current.
MVL 11/04 BO 10.15 +0.18 8.74 10.75 1.1M 400K 8.35
Current. Up again on volume.
NBTY 01/06 BO 19.91 +0.7 19.38 23.25 1.5M 878K 17.88
Current. Another great move.
NOC 07/06 Test 50 98.41 -2.02 0 0 1.6M 1.7M 0
NTES 12/19 Test BO 15.51 +0.25 12 14.45 1.3M 550K 11.12
Current. Gapped higher and had a volatile day. Has moved well and needs a breather.
PENN 12/14 Put 16.71 +0.65 16.55 14 508K 300K 17.65
Current. Trying to rally. Needs to hold below 17.
PFGC 12/09 Put 31.95 -2.32 33.97 31.75 2M 475K 34.75
Hit target.
PG 09/21 Test 18 86.49 -1.35 91.55 103 3.3M 5.5M 89.45
PPD 11/14 Test BO 20.28 +0.71 25.51 30.55 1.3M 450K 26.25
Current. Moved up some after the gap down. Will see if can get more upside.
PRA 12/11 Cup hdl 20.89 -0.3 20.26 24.32 141K 145K 20.25
Current.
QCOM 12/04 Test 18 37.26 -0.11 40.85 50 14M 18M 37.99
Current. Doji just below the 50 day MVA.
QCOM 11/07 Test BO 37.26 -0.11 34.78 42 14M 18M 38.14
Current.
QLGC 11/07 Test BO 41.18 +1.06 41.4 50 12M 25M 39.88
QLGC 08/17 CCall 41.18 +1.06 36.48 0 12M 12M 37
Current.
RBK 01/02 DB hdl 31.05 -0.14 30.25 38.85 348K 680K 28.45
Current. Low volume day of rest.
RCII 08/24 Test BO 53.91 -0.03 53.05 60.94 492K 701K 49.34
Moving well.
RIMM 12/22 Put 14.56 +0.26 12.94 9.95 883K 1.7M 14.04
Buy Not Issued.
ROIAK 12/28 Rv H&S 14.7 -0.12 14.55 17.49 484K 650K 13.53
Current. Took a breather.
SINA 12/31 Test BO 8.42 +0.09 6.25 8.25 2.3M 950K 6.48
Current. Gapped higher and pulled back. AS with NTES it needs a rest.
SINA 12/04 Test BO 8.42 +0.09 5.58 8.25 2.3M 950K 6.48
Current.
SRCL 10/19 Cup 34.53 +0.56 35.25 40 495K 787K 32.78
STK 12/26 Cup hdl 24.13 -0.4 23.21 27.88 1.7M 1.2M 21.59
Current. Big gap up then fell back on volume. Do not like that action but it has announced good news so we think it will hold up.
SY 01/07 A Wedge 14.4 +0.27 14.55 17.45 534K 1.1M 13.53
New.
TSCO 10/16 Test BO 41.7 +0.89 39.05 46.85 496K 235K 37.94
Current. Continues the recovery.
UNTD 11/30 Test BO 17.9 +1 16.25 19.65 1.4M 1M 15.55
Current. Another super move.
UNTD 11/02 Cup hdl 17.9 +1 13.3 16 1.4M 1M 15.55
Current.
UPL 10/19 A Wedge 9.4 -0.36 9.68 11.75 234K 345K 9.35
Current. Breaking the 18 day MVA. No need to wait around.
UTHR 11/12 DB hdl 17 -0.02 17.65 21.45 159K 295K 16.21
Current. Tapping the 50 day MVA on the low still.
UTIW 12/17 Rv H&S 26.65 +0.28 24.56 29 110K 175K 25.25
Current.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 19.35 +1.35 19.76 20 17M 8.5M 17.45
Current.
VRTY 11/30 Cup hdl 15 +0.84 14.56 17.65 640K 450K 13.54
Current. Nice blast higher.
WCS 01/06 Cup hdl 21.74 -0.03 22.35 26.88 201K 198K 20.79
Buy Not Hit. Still looks super.
WM 07/06 Cup 36.3 -0.3 0 0 3.3M 5.5M 0
YHOO 12/11 Test 50 19.15 +0.21 17.32 22.75 14M 20M 16.11
Current. Gapped down but then rallied well on volume.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock recommendation
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