|
|
us stock market, stock pick
Begin part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good moves: AVCT; POSS
Best Plays:
1) NXTL: Nice and widespread pattern forming.
2) VOXX: Looks very nice.
3) CCCG: Nice breather during the market pullback.
4) AVO: Nice volume surge after the shakeout.
5) LF: Very orderly session.
6) LXK: Nice test of the 10 day MVA.
7) BBBY: Very orderly move.
New Plays:
Upside:
NXTL (Nextel--$13.47; -0.27; optionable): Wireless communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nxtl.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge/double bottom w/handle. You can take your pick of what you want to call it, but NXTL has tapped the 50 day MVA (12.08) twice, using it as support in the current 6-week base. It rallied off the 50 day MVA the past week and showed a doji Wednesday on rising, average volume. It may need another session or two to prepare for the next move higher, but accumulation is only positive since it started its run, coming in at 10 accumulation weeks to 0 distribution weeks. Getting ready for the next move as it held up very well despite the telecom downgrade Wednesday.
Volume: 23.61M Avg Volume: 26.287M
BUY POINT: $13.85 Volume=30M Target=$16.65 Stop=$12.75
POSITION: FQC ER - May $12.50c (67 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nxtl.html
Play Date: 01/08/2003
VOXX (Audiovox--$10.95; -0.05; optionable): Wholesale electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/voxx.html
STATUS: Ascendinge wedge. VOXX has spent the past five weeks working on this pattern that looks to be the tail end 18 month cup with handle base. There has been huge accumulation off the bottom of the base (8 accumulation weeks to 2 distribution weeks since May). Money flow is huge, showing a strong positive divergence, meaning that it is higher now at the current stock price than it was in July over a year ago when the stock was at the same price. The past four sessions VOXX has traded over the short term moving averages, tapping that level on the lows (10.80). Wednesday VOXX showed a tight doji on the candlestick chart that again tapped the short term MVA on the low vefore moving back up. Looks ready for the breakout.
Volume: 103.31K Avg Volume: 99.045K
BUY POINT: $11.56 Volume=149K Target=$14 Stop=$10.64
POSITION: UXX DB - April $10c (69 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/voxx.html
Downside:
Play Date: 01/08/2003
SIAL (Sigma-Aldrich--$46.65; -2.13; optionable): Chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sial.html
STATUS: Put. SIAL plunged through the 200 day MVA (48.05) Tuesday on rising, above average volume after a week-long attempt at holding that level. The stock is under some distribution with money leading downward. It does not even have to fall to the October low to bank us a nice return.
Volume: 1.219M Avg Volume: 856.09K
BUY POINT: $46.42 Volume=1M Target=$44 Stop=$43.55
POSITION: IAQ NJ - Feb. $50p (64 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sial.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 12/10/2002
ADTN (Adtran--$35.47; -0.48; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adtn.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After the strong breakout move Friday ADTN has tested back on lower volume, being very stingy with the gains; in other words, an orderly pullback. We expect ADTN to test near the 10 day MVA (34.34) and then be ready for the next move higher.
Volume: 750.48K Avg Volume: 531.09K
BUY POINT: New: After a test of 34.34, $35 (orig. $32.05) Volume=800K Target=$38.45 Stop=$33.25
POSITION: RQA EF - May $30c (64 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/adtn.html
Play Date: 12/07/2002
AFCO (Applied Films--$21.3; +0.41; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/afco.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. AFCO has worked over the breakout point, but it has not garnered enough volume to get us in the stock. Nonetheless, it showed great relative strength Wednesday, rising when most other chip stocks were falling. AFCO is in position for a solid move when the next buying roung resumes, possible late Thursday or Friday. When we see volume we will move in.
Volume: 79.818K Avg Volume: 185.772K
BUY POINT: From here on target volume. $20.85 Volume=225K Target=$25 Stop=$18.79
POSITION: UOF DW - April $17.50c (55 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/afco.html
Play Date: 12/16/2002
AVO (Advanced Medical Optics--$12.01; +0.2; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avo.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Selling back early in the week, AVO gapped lower Wednesday and then rallied back up for a gain on a very strong volume surge. The close pushed it back over the 10 day MVA. Looks as if there was a shakeout early in the week and AVO is ready to go. Accumulation is positive at 4 accumulation weeks (up price on rising volume) to 3 distribution weeks (down price on rising volume). Not great.
Volume: 485.6K Avg Volume: 122.136K
BUY POINT: New: $12.45 (orig. $12.06) Volume=210K Target=$14.45 Stop=$11.22
POSITION: AVO DB - April $10c (72 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/avo.html
Play Date: 01/02/2003
BBBY (Bed, Bath & Beyond--$35.6; -0.6; optionable): Housewares
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bbby.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still holding in the handle very well, testing the 10 day MVA on the Wednesday low (35.40) on lower, below average volume. Solid accumulation at 6 accumulation weeks to 4 distribution weeks. Looks ready and may just need another session or two. Aggressive over 36.23 on a big volume surge.
Volume: 2.564M Avg Volume: 3.55M
BUY POINT: $37.55 Volume=5.7M Target=$45 Stop=$34.92
POSITION: BHQ EG - May $35c (61 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bbby.html
Play Date: 01/06/2003
CCCG (CCC Information Services--$19.59; +0.1; no options): Management services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cccg.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. CCCG is now forming a handle to its 8-week cup, moving laterally the past two sessions on lower, below average volume. Accumulation in the short base is solid at 3 accumulation weeks to 1 distribution week. May take another session or two, but setting up very nicely.
Volume: 71.245K Avg Volume: 116.045K
BUY POINT: $20.05 Volume=173K Target=$25.12 Stop=$18.65
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cccg.html
Play Date: 12/19/2002
GPN (Global Payments--$31; -0.67; optionable): Management services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gpn.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Fell lower Wednesday, dropping below the 18 day MVA on the close. Volume was lower, however, so this could very well be a shakeout, i.e., a low volume dip that occurs right at the end of a pattern that scares out the last weak holders.
Volume: 80.5K Avg Volume: 155.409K
BUY POINT: New: 32.31 (orig. $31.55) Volume=225K Target=$38 Stop=$30.12
POSITION: GPN EF - May $30c (71 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gpn.html
Play Date: 01/03/2003
KLAC (KLA Tencor--$39.38; -1.08; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/klac.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA (37.52). Held up Tuesday, but sold back more Wednesday as the chip sector took the brunt of the downside action. Nonetheless, the volume was lower on the selling, indicating that the recent buyers were not dumping their shares. Looking for another test lower toward the 10 day MVA (38.50), but we expect it to recover and rally more.
Volume: 11.168M Avg Volume: 15.562M
BUY POINT: New: after a test toward 38.50, 39.05 on the way back up (Orig. $39.25) Volume=12M Target=$45.25 Stop=$36.55
POSITION: KCQ CG - Mar. $35c (72 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/klac.html
Play Date: 01/07/2003
LF (Leapfrog Enterprises--$27.5; -0.64; optionable): Educational games
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lf.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. Tested back but not much, tapping at the 50 day MVA on the low (27.06) and then recovering most of the loss. Volume backed off to below average. A nice, quiet session in a down market.
Volume: 378.4K Avg Volume: 358.136K
BUY POINT: $28.95 Volume=521K Target=$34.88 Stop=$26.92
POSITION: LF FE - June $25c (70 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lf.html
Play Date: 01/02/2003
LXK (Lexmark Intl.--$64.92; +0.37; optionable): Computer peripherals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lxk.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. Jumped off the 50 day MVA as anticipated, and is now moving laterally, bumping its head at 65, an important breakout point. Wednesday it tested down to the 18 day MVA on the low and recovered. Ready to make the next move.
Volume: 1.568M Avg Volume: 1.651M
BUY POINT: New: $65.58 (orig. $63.78) Volume=1.8M Target=$69 Stop=$60.25
POSITION: LXK DL - April $60c (66 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lxk.html
Play Date: 01/06/2003
POSS (Possis Medical--$19.23; +1.4; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/poss.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Big breakout on massive volume! At the edge of the buy zone (19.26). Very solid move on the back of the solid accumulation (11 up weeks on rising volume to 7 down weeks on rising volume).
Volume: 698.928K Avg Volume: 119.181K
BUY POINT: New: Up to $19.26 (orig. $18.35) Volume=167K Target=$22.12 Stop=$16.75
POSITION: UPQ DC - April $15c (77 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/poss.html
Play Date: 12/07/2002
SAFC (Safeco--$35.95; -0.49; optionable): Property & casualty
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/safc.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Monday SAFC made a breakout move but it then fell back the past two sessions on lower, below average volume. Wednesday it held the 10 day MVA on the low (35.84). Need it to hold here for another move back up.
Volume: 574.689K Avg Volume: 969.636K
BUY POINT: New: $37.05 (orig. $36.69) Volume=1.5M Target=$41 Stop=$34.12
POSITION: SAQ EF - May $30c (70 delta, low OI) or SAQ EG - May $35c (65 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/safc.html
Play Date: 12/11/2002
YHOO (Yahoo!--$18.75; -0.4; optionable): Internet information
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/y/yhoo.html
STATUS: Breakout. Tuesday YHOO made the breakout on stronger volume. Wednesday YHOO sold back with the general market selling as volume fell back to just below average. Looks like a moderate test of the breakout, and we will look at a move over the recent high at 19.30 as an add-to point.
Volume: 9.674M Avg Volume: 12.271M
BUY POINT: New: 19.25 (orig. $17.32) Volume=20M Target=$22.75 Stop=$16.11
POSITION: YHZ DC - April $15c (70 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/yhoo.html
Downside
Play Date: 12/09/2002
HSIC (Henry Schein--$42.75; -0.37; optionable): Wholesale medical equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hsic.html
STATUS: Put. Big breakdown Tuesday, and continued moving lower Wednesday, closing right at the low. Good move.
Volume: 294.68K Avg Volume: 617.727K
BUY POINT: No new positions at this time. Orig. $44.15 Volume=667K Target=$40 Stop=$46.05
POSITION: HQE NI - Feb. $45p (-47 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hsic.html
Play Date: 12/21/2002
JAKK (Jakks Pacific--$13.99; +0.13; optionable): Toys and games
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jakk.html
STATUS: Put. Head and shoulders breakdown. Still fighting at the 50 day MVA just below 14. Need to see the breakdown, something we have seen from these types of patterns of late.
Volume: 102.048K Avg Volume: 214.545K
BUY POINT: $13.24 Volume=325K Target=$11 Stop=$14.65
POSITION: UFF OC - Mar. $15p (-58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jakk.html
Play Date: 01/03/2003
TECH (Techne--$25.9; -0.05; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tech.html
STATUS: Put. After diving lower, TECH showed a tight doji Wednesday just below 26 as volume backed off. After such a strong selling bout that indicates that TECH is going to attempt a bounce here. The bias is still negative, and the normal action is to sell, bounce a bit, then sell some more. We will let it continue to work for us but want to see it stall near 27 on any bounce back up.
Volume: 544.858K Avg Volume: 423.363K
BUY POINT: No new positions (orig. $27.88) Volume=400K Target=$24 Stop=$29.21
POSITION: TGQ NF - Feb. $30p (-60 delta) or TGQ PF - April $30p (-53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tech.html
Play Date: 12/22/2002
URBN (Urban Outfitters--$22.48; -0.27; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/urbn.html
STATUS: Put. Continues to struggle, but it also continues to hold above 22 on the lows. Wednesday it showed signs of life, looking as if it wants to make the move back up. Still in the downtrend but could test up to 23.50 or so on a test of the 10 day MVA. The failure to break below 22 on several attempts inclines us to go ahead and close it out if it shows any more strength.
Volume: 248.378K Avg Volume: 385.59K
BUY POINT: No new positions (orig. $23.36). Volume=500K Target=$20.22 Stop=$24.65
POSITION: URQ OE - Mar. $25p (-49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/urbn.html
End Part 2 of 3
|
us stock market
stock pick
|
