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stock recommendation, stock option
Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ALN; DISK
Wednesday Plays:
MRD: Continued to hold steady at the 18 day MVA on below average volume.
SY: Nice, orderly low volume pullback it needed.
ACTI: Tested the 18 day MVA on the low. Getting ready.
Best Plays:
1) VOXX: Nice pattern that looks ready to move.
2) MRK: Looks great.
3) EBAY: Very nice pullback test of the breakout.
4) Continuing: ACTI; BBBY; CGX; UTIW
New Plays:
Play Date: 01/08/2003
VOXX (Audiovox--$10.95; -0.05; optionable): Wholesale electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/voxx.html
STATUS: Ascendinge wedge. VOXX has spent the past five weeks working on this pattern that looks to be the tail end 18 month cup with handle base. There has been huge accumulation off the bottom of the base (8 accumulation weeks to 2 distribution weeks since May). Money flow is huge, showing a strong positive divergence, meaning that it is higher now at the current stock price than it was in July over a year ago when the stock was at the same price. The past four sessions VOXX has traded over the short term moving averages, tapping that level on the lows (10.80). Wednesday VOXX showed a tight doji on the candlestick chart that again tapped the short term MVA on the low vefore moving back up. Looks ready for the breakout.
Volume: 103.31K Avg Volume: 99.045K
BUY POINT: $11.56 Volume=149K Target=$14 Stop=$10.64
POSITION: UXX DB - April $10c (69 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/voxx.html
Play Date: 01/08/2003
SFNT (Safenet--$26.48; -1.03; no options): Security software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sfnt.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. This is a pattern seen in many leading stocks in the market over the past month as they have moved laterally, consolidating the gains off of the October low. SFNT, as have many stocks, is using the 50 day MVA (23.91) as the bottom of the pattern. It is now forming the handle, testing the 18 day MVA on the low (26). Looks as if it will take another session or two to complete the pattern, but we need to be ready as this is one of the leading sectors in the market. Accumulation since the move started in August is excellent at 6 accumulation weeks to 0 distribution weeks.
Volume: 205.253K Avg Volume: 244.363K
BUY POINT: $28.04 Volume=367K Target=$33.65 Stop=$25.88
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/sfnt.html
Revisited:
Play Date: 12/21/2002
MRK (Merck & Co.--$58.98; -0.13; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrk.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. MRK has formed a short cup with handle over the past six weeks, testing the 50 day MVA at 56 on the low. It has spent the last two sessions pulling back to test the recent run off the 50 day MVA. The selling has been mild, showing a tight doji Wednesday on lower volume. Great money flow. Looks ready for the next leg.
Volume: 4.755M Avg Volume: 6.991M
BUY POINT: New: $60.04 (orig. $58.05) Volume=9.5M Target=$67 Stop=$55.94
POSITION: MRK DK - April $55c (69 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/mrk.html
Play Date: 12/11/2002
YHOO (Yahoo!--$18.75; -0.4; optionable): Internet information
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/y/yhoo.html
STATUS: Breakout. Tuesday YHOO made the breakout on stronger volume. Wednesday YHOO sold back with the general market selling as volume fell back to just below average. Looks like a moderate test of the breakout, and we will look at a move over the recent high at 19.30 as an add-to point.
Volume: 9.674M Avg Volume: 12.271M
BUY POINT: New: 19.25 (orig. $17.32) Volume=20M Target=$22.75 Stop=$16.11
POSITION: YHZ DC - April $15c (70 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/yhoo.html
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: CUB, EBAY, HOTT; LOW, NOC, PG, QLGC, RCII, SRCL, WM
These are the stocks that our subscribers vote to put in a 'portfolio' to track their progress and comment upon when they reach buy points, sell points, or levels to write some covered calls on. They are not covered every report, but when something interesting is developing we take note.
Some great picks for the portfolio. We had a late surge of votes and will roll the portfolio out this week.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 71.86 -0.71 69.45 77 7.6M 12M 68.05
Current. Very nice, orderly pullback. May test 10 day MVA just over 70, but we view that as a buying opportunity.
CONTINUING/WATCHLIST: These are stocks that are current plays (the buy point hit), waiting for the buy point to be hit (buy not hit), or buy not made for various reasons (buy alert not issued). The date references the date the play first appeared on the report. Pivot is the buy point.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
$SOX 12/07 Test 50 322.44 -10.98 335.15 385 0 0 313.94
Current. Turned back lower but tested the 50 day MVA on the low and closed a bit higher. Looking for another bounce.
ACTI 01/04 Pennant 8.83 -0.14 8.95 10.75 140K 225K 8.28
Buy Not Issued. Spent the last two sessions pulling back, tapping the 18 day MVA on the low and rallying on volume.
AGU 12/30 A Wedge 11.35 -0.02 11.55 13.85 219K 357K 11.05
Current. Testing the 10 day MVA on lower volume.
AIG 12/18 Put 60.17 -0.76 58.55 54 3.5M 7M 59.15
Current. Tested down to the 18 day MVA on the close as volume fell. Looks like our exit point if it does not break below 60 sharply.
ALN 12/07 Test BO 11.45 +1.23 9.86 11.85 996K 412K 9.95
Current.
ALN 11/09 Test BO 11.45 +1.23 7.28 12.54 996K 200K 9.95
Current. Blast off on volume.
AMZN 10/21 Cup hdl 21.02 -0.53 20.32 24.38 7M 10M 21.75
Current. Moderate, low volume pullback to test the 50 day MVA.
ANT 12/11 Put 24.85 -0.25 22.45 20 232K 200K 23.55
Current. Fell back a bit more, but very orderly. Looks like a test of the move up and we will exit on any further weakness unless it is a massive breakdown through 24.
AVID 12/07 Test 18 23.82 +0.17 21 25 590K 500K 21.75
Current. Still working up the 10 day MVA but needs to clear 24.
AVID 10/30 Cup hdl 23.82 +0.17 15.65 25 590K 177K 21.75
Current.
BBBY 01/02 Cup 35.6 -0.6 37.55 45 2.6M 5.7M 34.92
Buy Not Hit. Tested the 10 day MVA and looks ready.
BEAS 12/19 Test BO 12.84 -0.88 11.77 14.74 13M 16M 10.94
Current. Good move but then sold back. Lower volume, however.
BRCM 01/02 Test 50 17.85 -0.7 16.85 20.45 13M 12M 15.67
Current. Lower volume, mild pullback.
BRCM 11/16 BO 17.85 -0.7 15.9 20 13M 15M 14.79
Current.
CGX 12/03 Cup hdl 23.04 +0.04 22 26.45 60K 65K 21.94
Current. Still riding the 10 day MVA, preparing for the next move. Volume jumped Wednesday.
COGN 01/02 Cup 25.07 -0.2 25.11 30.24 1.4M 1.5M 23.35
Current. No problem with the Wednesday action, holding steady on lower volume.
CRAY 01/04 Test 18 7.62 -0.1 7.7 9.85 716K 1M 7.16
Current. Trying to settle down at the 10 day MVA.
CRAY 11/30 A Wedge 7.62 -0.1 7.38 8.85 716K 346K 7.15
Current.
CRAY 10/21 Cup 7.62 -0.1 4.28 8 716K 346K 7.15
Target Hit.
CUB 07/06 Cup 19.01 -0.39 0 0 64K 0 0
DANKY 12/17 Cup hdl 4.71 0 4.62 5.65 273K 560K 4.25
Buy Not issued.
DISK 12/28 Cup hdl 2.8 +0.14 2.61 3.15 111K 37K 2.38
Current. Another big move, gapping higher on volume.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 71.86 -0.71 69.45 77 7.6M 12M 68.05
Current. Very nice, orderly pullback. May test 10 day MVA just over 70, but we view that as a buying opportunity.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 71.86 -0.71 62.45 71 7.6M 12M 68.05
Current.
ECL 10/30 Cup hdl 50.92 -0.46 49.11 56.55 680K 1M 48.15
Current. Lower volume, held the gains.
EUNI 12/30 Cup hdl 6.6 -0.2 6.55 8.15 111K 204K 5.78
Current. Low volume test.
GRMN 11/06 Cup hdl 30.46 -0.86 22.34 34 859K 198K 28.95
Current. Moving down to test the 10 day MVA at 30. A bit too much volume; want it to hold at 30.
HLTH 12/12 Cup hdl 9.55 -0.2 8.85 11.35 10M 3.1M 8.23
Current. Testing the move a bit.
HOTT 11/23 A Wedge 24.67 +0.19 23.9 28 828K 1.5M 22.45
Current. Still working higher.
LOOK 12/22 Cup hdl 2.94 -0.04 2.94 4.95 155K 950K 2.58
Current. Holding steady on the breakout on very low volume. Good action.
LOW 07/06 Test 50 37.17 +0.22 0 0 5.5M 0 0
MRD 01/07 Cup hdl 22.88 -0.12 23.65 28.38 54K 136K 21.99
Buy Not Hit. Holding steady.
MRK 12/21 Test 50 58.98 -0.13 58.05 67 4.8M 9.5M 55.94
Current. Looks ready for the next move.
MRK 12/07 Test BO 58.98 -0.13 59.15 67 4.8M 9.5M 55.94
Current.
MVL 11/04 BO 10.8 +0.65 8.74 12 2.5M 400K 9.21
Target Hit. Took some option gain and letting the stock run for us.
NBTY 01/06 BO 19.82 -0.09 19.38 23.25 841K 878K 17.88
Current. Held the gains well on low volume.
NOC 07/06 Test 50 98.24 -0.17 0 0 920K 1.7M 0
NTES 12/19 Test BO 15.29 -0.22 12 18 702K 550K 12.24
Current. Nice low volume pullback as the rest of the market sold.
PENN 12/14 Put 16.63 -0.08 16.55 14 705K 300K 17.65
Current. Struggling at 17 but not breaking down. Ready to exit if it moves over 17.
PG 09/21 Test 18 85.2 -1.29 91.55 103 5.3M 5.5M 89.45
PPD 11/14 Test BO 20.22 -0.06 25.51 30.55 639K 450K 26.25
Current. Went nowhere. Still going to give it a bit more time to work higher.
PRA 12/11 Cup hdl 20.7 -0.19 20.26 24.32 46K 145K 20.25
Current. Testing down to the 18 day MVA on lower volume, showing a doji.
QCOM 12/21 Test 50 36.62 -0.64 39.15 48 12M 18M 36.41
Buy Not Hit.
QCOM 12/04 Test 18 36.62 -0.64 40.85 50 12M 18M 37.99
Current. Struggling at the 50 day MVA.
QCOM 11/07 Test BO 36.62 -0.64 34.78 42 12M 18M 38.14
Current.
QLGC 11/07 Test BO 39.81 -1.37 41.4 50 9.6M 25M 39.88
QLGC 08/17 CCall 39.81 -1.37 36.48 0 9.6M 12M 37
Current. Testing back on lower volume after breaking over the 200 day MVA.
RBK 01/02 DB hdl 31.04 -0.01 30.25 38.85 466K 680K 28.45
Current. Resting after the strong move up, being stingy with its gains.
RCII 08/24 Test BO 53.66 -0.25 53.05 60.94 276K 701K 49.34
Buy Not Hit.
ROIAK 12/28 Rv H&S 14.14 -0.56 14.55 17.49 606K 650K 13.53
Current. Gave back the entire move on rising, average volume. Won't let it break down below the bottom of the range at 14.
SFNT 01/08 DB hdl 26.48 -1.03 28.04 33.65 205K 367K 25.88
New.
SINA 12/31 Test BO 8.43 +0.01 6.25 10 1.4M 950K 6.88
Current. Nice test of the move, holding up very well.
SINA 12/04 Test BO 8.43 +0.01 5.58 10 1.4M 950K 6.88
Current.
SRCL 10/19 Cup 34.64 +0.11 35.25 40 411K 787K 32.78
STK 12/26 Cup hdl 24.07 -0.06 23.21 27.88 1.3M 1.2M 21.59
Current. Holding up on the breakout very well.
SY 01/07 A Wedge 14 -0.4 14.55 17.45 333K 1.1M 13.53
Buy Not Hit. Nice low volume pullback. Getting ready.
TSCO 10/16 Test BO 42.2 +0.5 39.05 46.85 294K 235K 37.94
Current. Stabilizing over the 50 day MVA just as we wanted.
UNTD 11/30 Test BO 17.45 -0.45 16.25 19.88 1M 1M 16.25
Current. Low volume pullback in the market selling after the big move.
UNTD 11/02 Cup hdl 17.45 -0.45 13.3 19.88 1M 1M 16.25
Current.
UPL 10/19 A Wedge 9.01 -0.39 9.68 11.75 388K 345K 9.35
Current. Tanked to the 50 day MVA on volume as oil stocks struggle on the OPEC news.
UTHR 11/12 DB hdl 16.51 -0.49 17.65 21.45 127K 295K 16.21
Current. Testing the 50 day MVA. May be a shakeout but needs to hold here now.
UTIW 12/17 Rv H&S 26.49 -0.15 24.56 29 74K 175K 25.25
Current. Moving laterally over support at 26.
VOXX 01/08 A Wedge 10.95 -0.05 11.56 14 103K 149K 10.64
New.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 18.73 -0.62 19.76 20 8.6M 8.5M 17.45
Current.
VRTY 11/30 Cup hdl 14.91 -0.09 14.56 17.65 518K 450K 13.54
Current. Held steady on lower volume.
WCS 01/06 Cup hdl 21.5 -0.24 22.35 26.88 288K 198K 20.79
Buy Not Hit. Nice test of the 18 day MVA and recovery on strong volume. Getting ready.
WM 07/06 Cup 35.9 -0.4 0 0 2.5M 5.5M 0
YHOO 12/11 Test 50 18.75 -0.4 17.32 22.75 9.7M 20M 16.11
Current. Low volume day of rest.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
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