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us stock market, trade stock
Begin Part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: ALN; ASKJ; BRCM; BSTE; CYMI; FIC; IGEN; MRGE; QCOM; QLGC; RBK
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers.
NEW PLAYS: Splitting stocks are often market leaders and thus we do not just focus on them at points where they are expected to announce or before they actually split. They provide many opportunities to invest in them and this section is where we can look at some former split stocks and other stocks that are in good position to make us money. In addition, there are emerging trends in the recent move off of the double bottom, and we want to capture those stocks emerging from the obscurity as well.
Upside:
Play Date: 01/09/2003
FLIR (Flir Systems--$51.1; +1.83; optionable): Scientific and technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flir.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. FLIR is moving in a 10-month base, clearing some resistance at 50 last week and then coming back to test the move, holding the 10 day MVA on the close (49.50). It started up off the 10 day MVA on rising volume Thursday, ready for the breakout. Accumulation in the base is solid at 7 up weeks on rising volume to 4 down weeks on rising volume.
Volume: 235.308K Avg Volume: 361.954K
BUY POINT: $51.98 Volume=543K Target=$59 Stop=$48.34
POSITION: FFQ DJ - April $50c (61 delta) and/or stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cS/flir.html
Play Date: 01/09/2003
ROK (Rockwell Automation--$21.51; +0.54; optionable): Industrial automation
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rok.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Moving in an 8.5-month base showing solid accumulation at 11 up weeks on rising volume to 4 down weeks on rising volume. ROK has spent the last 5 weeks forming the handle to the base. After testing lower in the handle ROK is how riding up the 10 day MVA at 21. Volume is still below average but ROK showed some rising trade Thursday. We are going to be patient and let it complete the base; it has come this far, we need to let it finish. Money flow is outstanding, leading ahead of the price and showing a large positive divergence.
Volume: 570.6K Avg Volume: 731.863K
BUY POINT: $22.35 Volume=1M Target=$26.85 Stop=$20.66
POSITION: ROK DD - April $20c (64 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rok.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Upside:
Play Date: 10/21/2002
AMZN (Amazon.com--$21.45; +0.43; optionable): Internet retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amzn.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. After the early year selling on some short sale speculation, AMZN has made a dramatic recovery, moving over the 50 day MVA (20.82), testing the move Wednesday, and starting back up Thursday. It still needs to clear the December consolidation at 22.62 to break free, but on a big surge in volume we can take aggressive positions.
Volume: 6.205M Avg Volume: 8.603M
BUY POINT: New: 22.72 (orig. $20.32) Volume=10M Target=$27.25 (new) $24.38 (orig) Stop=$21.75
POSITION: ZQN DO - April $17.50c (69 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/amzn.html
Play Date: 12/21/2002
CVD (Covance--$24.2; +0.82; optionable): Research services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cvd.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. An early leader, CVD broke out and made 4 runs up the short term MVA. This week it tested back to the 50 day MVA Wednesday (22.90) and then Thursday bounded off that level. Volume was weak but with this leader we are looking to pick it up on some further movement over the short term MVA.
Volume: 333.6K Avg Volume: 414.909K
BUY POINT: $24.75 Volume=581K Target=$29.74 Stop=$23.65
POSITION: CVD ED - May $20c (68 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cvd.html
CYMI (Cymer--$38.69; +2.13; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cymi.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Super move Thursday though on lower volume than we wanted. Entered some partial positions and now we are looking at more if it continues the move on some more volume. Accumulation since way back in March where it started this last decline is solid at 10 up weeks on rising volume to 7 down weeks on rising volume with a lot of the accumulation coming in the last few months of this pattern as it should.
Volume: 2.418M Avg Volume: 1.916M
BUY POINT: New: $39.01 (orig. $37.75) Volume=2.9M Target=$45 Stop=$34.94
POSITION: CQG EG - May 35c (64 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cymi.html
Play Date: 12/19/2002
ESPD (Espeed Inc.--$18.06; +0.26; optionable): Internet software and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/espd.html
STATUS: Testing the 10 day MVA. ESPD sold back to the 10 day MVA (17.85) and started to rally up off that level Thursday on rising volume. Looks ready for its second jump up off of the short term MVA.
Volume: 392.555K Avg Volume: 487K
BUY POINT: New: 18.33 (orig. $17.81) Volume=675K Target=$21.45 Stop=$16.11
POSITION: ENU EC - May $15c (73 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/espd.html
Play Date: 11/30/2002
RHD (RH Donnelley--$29.97; +0.47; optionable): Research services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rhd.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Making the move out of the handle of the 8.5 month base. Volume has surged the past two sessions. Ready.
Volume: 590.3K Avg Volume: 138.363K
BUY POINT: $30.17 Volume=267K Target=$25.94 Stop=$28.06
POSITION: RHD EE - May $25c (80 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rhd.html
Play Date: 01/02/2003
SYMC (Symantec--$45.07; +1.71; optionable): Internet security software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/symc.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. Tested the 10 day MVA and the December high at 44 and then started up Thursday on strong volume. Making the move we were looking for and still a buy.
Volume: 3.218M Avg Volume: 3.398M
BUY POINT: New: 45.50 (orig. $44.75 & $43.05) Volume=4.1M Target=$51 Stop=$40.04
POSITION: SYQ DH - April $40c (79 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/symc.html
Play Date: 11/23/2002
VRNT (Verint Systems--$23.2; +1.09; no options): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vrnt.html
STATUS: Testing the 10 day MVA. VRNT broke out in late December and has been marching up the short term MVA since. It moved laterally for a week and then Thursday started up off the 10 day on a jump in volume. It looks ready for the next big move higher. A winner already, we are looking at new positions.
Volume: 346.998K Avg Volume: 221.5K
BUY POINT: New: 23.41 (orig. $15.85) Volume=113K Target=28 (new) Stop=$21
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vrnt.html
Play Date: 12/17/2002
VSAT (Viasat--$12.69; +0.58; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vsat.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Looking solid. VSAT is working through a 5-week ascending wedge as the trailer to its 10 month base. Thursday it jumped up off the 10 day MVA (12.10) on solid volume. Ready for more.
Volume: 133.55K Avg Volume: 198.545K
BUY POINT: New: $12.75 (orig. $12.26) Volume=320K Target=$15.45 Stop=$11.35
POSITION: IQS EB - May $10c (70 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vsat.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 11/13/2002
COLM (Columbia Sportswear--$45.03; +1.05; optionable): Sportswear. Forecast to announce a split 1-30-03 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings or on 2-6-03 in conjunction with a board meeting. The company has not confirmed the date for the board meeting, but based upon our research this is the date for the meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 5-2-01 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $70. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-16-02 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/colm.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. COLM fell back to the 50 day MVA Wednesday and then Thursday started up. It could not clear the short term MVA, closing at that level. Volume was lower and it needs to attract some more to make a good move. A strong performer so we are expecting it to resume.
Volume: 557.457K Avg Volume: 348.272K
BUY POINT: New: $46.55 (orig. $41.96) Volume=389K Target=$48.45 Stop=$44.25
POSITION: TQQ DH - April $40c (60 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/colm.html
Play Date: 10/08/2002
NBIX (Neurocrine Biosciences--$46.08; +1.79; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 2-4-03 in conjunction with earnings. At this time the company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the announcement.
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that NBIX has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-23-02 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nbix.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. Jumping off the 50 day MVA and clearing the short term MVA. Volume was less than we wanted, but not a bad start to a recovery. Solid accumulation in the big, 12-month base at 14 accumulation weeks to 6 distribution weeks.
Volume: 307.177K Avg Volume: 562.227K
BUY POINT: New: $46.15 (orig. $44.85) Volume=750K Target=$55 Stop=$45.45
POSITION: UOT EI - May $45c (57 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nbix.html
Play Date: 10/19/2002
BSX (Boston Scientific--$44.82; +0.63; optionable): Medial supplies. Forecast to announce a split on 2-4-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the announcement
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 8-27-98 at a stock price of $40. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-7-02. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bsx.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. Started off the 10 day MVA Thursday but did not attract a lot of volume. Needs to test back a bit more.
Volume: 1.361M Avg Volume: 2.198M
BUY POINT: New: No new buys right now (orig. 44.05; $37.75) Volume=3.3M Target=Initial $45.75 Stop=$40.55
POSITION: Stock for now.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bsx.html
Play Date: 11/30/2002
EXPE (Expedia--$67.11; +3.08; optionable): Online travel. Forecast to announce a split on 1-26-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that EXPE has ever split its stock. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/expe.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice jump off the 200 day MVA just below 64, EXPE is trying to shake off the ROOM warning. A move over 68 on some volume will go a long way in doing that. Aggressive play at that time and need to see strong volume up over that point.
Volume: 2.53M Avg Volume: 2.598M
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 68.05 Breakout: $78.25 Volume=3M Target=$88 Stop=$72.77
POSITION: UED DO - April $75c (61 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/expe.html
Play Date: 12/12/2002
ROST (Ross Stores--$46.01; +1.64; optionable): Apparel stores. Forecast to announce a split on 3-19-03 in conjunction with earnings. At this time the company cannot confirm a time for the release.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rost.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 8-26-99 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $43.30. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-23-02 at which time authorized shares were increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Gapped up on the retail sales news, rallying on the second session of strong volume. Very nice and still a buy at this point though we want to see it clear 46.62 on the close to clear resistance.
Volume: 2.016M Avg Volume: 1.164M
BUY POINT: Breakout: 46.72 (orig. $45.85) Volume=1.6M Target=$52.75 Stop=$42.64
POSITION: REQ EV - May $42.50c (66 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rost.html
Play Date: 12/21/2002
SYK (Stryker--$68.65; +1.23; optionable): Medical supplies and instruments. Forecast to announce a split on 1-27-03 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 4-19-00 at a stock price of $73.
The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-23-02 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/syk.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. After testing the breakout Wednesday, SYK was back on the move Thursday though it rallied on lower volume. Looking for more volume to come in as it moves thorugh the buy point.
Volume: 417.4K Avg Volume: 742.727K
BUY POINT: New: $69.05 (orig. $67.53). Volume=1.2M Target=$77.62 Stop=$62.84
POSITION: SYK FM - June $65c (70 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/syk.html
Play Date: 10/28/2002
WFMI (Whole Foods Market--$51.47; +0.84; optionable): Health food grocery. Forecast to announce a split on 2-12-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the announcement.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 5-10-01 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $50.40. The annual shareholder meeting was on 3-25-02 at which time authorized shares were increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfmi.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Working on a comeback, WFMI has rallied back the past two sessions to retake the 50 day MVA at 51.09. It tested the short term MVA on the high (52.30) and fell back. Needs some more volume to clear resistance at 52.
Volume: 708.361K Avg Volume: 781.59K
BUY POINT: New: 54.05 (orig. $50.11) Volume=975K Target=Initial $57.51 Stop=$49.94
POSITION: FMQ BI - Feb. $45c (64 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wfmi.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 01/02/2003
COH (Coach--$33.38; -0.26; optionable): High-end handbags, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coh.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. Back down to test the 18 day MVA on the retail news, but volume was lower and it held and then rallied back some. Still holding up well and one of the retail leaders. Solid accumulation at 7 accumulation weeks to just 3 distribution weeks since May.
Volume: 1.267M Avg Volume: 854.727K
BUY POINT: New: $34.75 (orig. $34.11) Volume=1.3M Target=$40.94 Stop=$31.72
POSITION: COH EF - May $30c (73 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coh.html
Play Date: 11/09/2002
EXPD (Expeditors Intl.--$33.15; +0.6; optionable): Air delivery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/expd.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working in the handle to its 6 month base formed after the June split. Volume the past two weeks has dropped way off as it should in the handle as it works toward the breakout. Accumulation is solid in the base at 8 accumulation weeks to 4 distribution weeks. Waiting for the next to be a breakout.
Volume: 737.002K Avg Volume: 713.181K
BUY POINT: New: 34.54 (orig. $32.08) Volume=750K Target=$38 Stop=$32.45
POSITION: URP EF - May $30c (75 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/expd.html
Play Date: 10/29/2002
FRX (Forest Labs--$54.25; +0.98; optionable): Drugs. Split 2:1 on 1-09-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/frx.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. As expected, investors started into FRX after it split. Volume was not huge, but we are looking for the stock to start moving post-split. Looking for more upside from here.
Volume: 1.643M Avg Volume: 1.893M
BUY POINT: New: 55.03 (53.75 orig.) Volume=3.1M Target=$100 Stop=$51
POSITION: FHA EX - May $52.50c (73 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/frx.html
End Part 2 of 3
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