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stock recommendation, stock option
Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Good moves: ASKJ; CAKE; CTAS; CVD
Best Plays:
1) NFLX: Nice wedge coming up the right side of the pattern.
2) BVF: Looks ready to turn back down.
3) CVH: Starting down from the 50 day.
4) PNRA: Diving below the 200 day MVA.
5) CCCG: Nice consolidation
6) MSN: Readying for a move off the 18 day MVA.
7) VERS: Ready to move out of the handle.
8) BCGI: Looks ready to fail at the 10 day MVA.
9) CVH: Failed at the 50 day MVA.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 01/25/2003
APPX (American Pharmaceutical--$24.18; -0.46; optionable): Drug manufacturing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/appx.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. A new issue last January, APPX formed a cup base and broke out in October. Since then it rallied and has now formed another shorter 10-week base. It broke out of that four sessions back on a big upside gap and is now testing back on much lower volume. Accumulation in the overall base is excellent at 11 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume. While it may take off from here once again when the market shores up some we are looking for it to fill the gap some, testing toward the 10 day MVA at 22 and then romping higher.
Volume: 520.53K Avg Volume: 513.318K
BUY POINT: From here without a further test: $24.26. On a test of 22, 22.45 on the way back up. Volume=770K Target=$29 Stop=$22.56
POSITION: AQO GX - July $22.50c (68 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/appx.html
Play Date: 01/25/2003
NFLX (Netflix--$12.33; +0.14; optionable): Mail order movie rental
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nflx.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. A new issue last May, NFLX is working up off the bottom of its first base, forming the current ascending wedge/triangle over the past 5 weeks as it does. Accumulation in the larger base is solid at 7 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume.and money flow is strong and rising up ahead of the stock price. Indeed, money flow is showing a positive divergence, meaning that money flow is higher at this price than it was when the stock was at 14 in June.
Volume: 453.958K Avg Volume: 335.59K
BUY POINT: $13.05 Volume=503K Target=$15.88 Stop=$12.14
POSITION: QNQ FV - June $12.50c (58 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nflx.html
Downside:
Play Date: 01/25/2003
BVF (Biovail--$28.96; -1.25; optionable): Drug delivery systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bvf.html
STATUS: Put. BVF is in a continuing downtrend, the most recent trendline runs from the April high to the December high. BVF just hit that trendline 6 sessions back and stalled. It broke back under the 200 day MVA (30.20) and Friday crashed the 50 day MVA as well on rising though still below average volume. This follows a two-session attempt to rally back that was quite weak and on lower volume. Poor money flow and distribution. Like that there is plenty of downside room and it can fall in a hurry.
Volume: 858.1K Avg Volume: 1.09M
BUY POINT: $28.85 Volume=1M Target=$25.55 Stop=$29.65
POSITION: BVF PF - April $30p (-51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bvf.html
Play Date: 01/25/2003
CVH (Coventry Health Care--$27.99; -1.03; optionable): Medical practitioners
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cvh.html
STATUS: Put. Failing test of the 50 day MVA breach. CVH was forming a cup pattern, but then at the bottom broke below the 200 day MVA just over 30 and tanked. It bounced, but had no volume. Thursday it tested the 50 day MVA on the high (29.62) and then plunged lower Friday. Volume was light Friday but the downtrend looks to be resuming.
Volume: 261.7K Avg Volume: 657.09K
BUY POINT: $27.95 Volume=600K Target=$24.25 Stop=$29.15
POSITION: CVH PF - April $30p (-55 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cvh.html
Play Date: 01/25/2003
NSM (National Semiconductor--$14.13; -0.53; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nsm.html
STATUS: Put. NSM broke back below the 50 day MVA at 16 a week back. Thursday it bounced up off 14 but stalled right at the 10 day MVA (14.98). There is some support at 14, but a break below that level on some rising volume gives a nice put play that can yield a nice return.
Volume: 2.228M Avg Volume: 2.5M
BUY POINT: $13.96 Volume=2.8M Target=$11.95 Stop=$15.05
POSITION: NSM OW - Mar. $17.50p (-75 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nsm.html
Play Date: 01/25/2003
PNRA (Panera Bread--$31.55; -1.11; optionable): Specialty eats
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pnra.html
STATUS: Put. PNRA triple topped in early December to just 7 sessions back and started plunge lower. After pausing at the 200 day MVA (32.15) Wednesday and Thursday, PNRA continued the drop Friday, falling through the 200 day MVA on much stronger, above average volume. After such a strong move it may try to test back up to the 200 day MVA near 32 and then start a further fall.
Volume: 982.735K Avg Volume: 577.181K
BUY POINT: Test of 32: 31.65; From Friday close: $31.45 Volume=800K Target=$28 Stop=$32.35
POSITION: UPA OG - Mar. $35c (-73 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pnra.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 01/22/2003
AMGN (Amgen--$52.24; -1.26; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amgn.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Nice breakout that got pushed back after earnings came Thursday evening. Good earnings, sales and revenues. AMGN held up well in the Friday selling, all things considered, as it held well over the 10 day MVA (51.62) and volume fell back. The decreasing volume and holding some support at 52 does not indicate investors dumping the stock. Looking for it to hold here and start back up.
Volume: 15.351M Avg Volume: 14.08M
BUY POINT: $53.12 Volume=20M Target=$62 Stop=$50.25
POSITION: AMQ GJ - July $50c (68 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amgn.html
Play Date: 01/14/2003
ANSI (Advanced Neuromo--$37.4; -0.42; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ansi.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Moving sideways the past two weeks in a very tight pattern over the 10 day MVA (37.40), ANSI got a bit wild in the Friday selling. It tapped 36 on the low, but managed to rally back on rising though still below average volume to close right at the 10 day MVA. Very good action still; the selling in the market could not keep it down.
Volume: 151.091K Avg Volume: 193.909K
BUY POINT: $38.36 Volume=309K Target=$46 Stop=$35.67
POSITION: UAI EG - May $35c (45 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ansi.html
Play Date: 01/06/2003
CCCG (CCC Information Services--$20.91; -0.07; no options): Management services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cccg.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Continues to move laterally right on top of the 10 day MVA the past three sessions on below average volume as CCCG continues to test the strong move made seven sesions back. This is the classic action of a strong stock: it holds its ground as the rest of the market sells. Waiting for the next move higher.
Volume: 48.1K Avg Volume: 111.363K
BUY POINT: $20.81 Volume=173K Target=$26 Stop=$19.94
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cccg.html
Play Date: 01/15/2003
EASI (Engineered Support--$37.58; -0.05; optionable): Aerospace/defense
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/easi.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Still working in its 7-week pattern that is part of a larger 4-month cup base. EASI tested the 50 day MVA just over 36 earl in the month and has since used the 10 and 18 day MVA as support. It tapped the 18 day on the Friday low (37.06) as volume rose. It is right at the breakout point and we are looking for a big, high volume breakout to enter. Has held up very well in the market selling.
Volume: 277.142K Avg Volume: 185K
BUY POINT: $38.15 Volume=300K Target=$45.88 Stop=$36.45
POSITION: UFE EG - May $35c (69 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/easi.html
Play Date: 12/21/2002
MSN (Emerson Radio--$6; -0.02; no options): Consumer electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/msn.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. MSN has been a workhorse for us. It is now making its second test of the 18 day MVA (5.70) after testing down to the 50 day MVA (now at 5) in late December. This is a natural entry point that is still early in the move. Tapping at the 18 day MVA on the lows the past two sessions and then snapping back to close over the 10 day MVA. On more volume we are looking at additional positions.
Volume: 180.3K Avg Volume: 164.772K
BUY POINT: $6.16 Volume=150K Target=$7.45 Stop=$4.94
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/msn.html
Play Date: 01/06/2003
POSS (Possis Medical--$19.14; -0.05; optionable): Medical Appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/poss.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Late last week POSS started to move, using the 18 day MVA at 18 as its foundation. Volume started up over average; Friday it spiked higher as POSS was on the verge of making the break over 19. Money flow is excellent and relative strength is breaking out already, a bullish sign. Looks ready to make another stronger move.
Volume: 402.185K Avg Volume: 151.681K
BUY POINT: $18.35 Volume=167K Target=$22.12 Stop=$17.35
POSITION: UPQ DC - April $15c (77 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/poss.html
Play Date: 01/21/2003
VERS (Versicor--$12.25; +0.15; no options): Drug manufacturer
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vers.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle, testing the 200 day MVA breakout. VERS continues to move laterally at 12 though Friday it tested the 18 day MVA on the low and rebounded sharply. Volume did not spike on the move, but that is no problem. Positive accumulation with money flow running up ahead of the stock price and relative strength breaking out.
Volume: 136.3K Avg Volume: 129.363K
BUY POINT: $12.36 Volume=184K Target=$14.88 Stop=$11.38
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vers.html
Downside:
Play Date: 01/15/2003
BCGI (Boston Communications--$11.66; -0.3; optionable): Wireless communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcgi.html
STATUS: Put. BCGI tanked and has now bounced up to test the 10 day MVA (11.90). Friday it stalled at that level. It looks as if it is ready to stall again and continue the new downtrend.
Volume: 157.7K Avg Volume: 238.136K
BUY POINT: $11.61 Volume=225K Target=$9.65 Stop=$12.25
POSITION: QGB OC - Mar. $15p (-50 delta, no OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bcgi.html
Play Date: 01/21/2003
CAKE (Cheesecake Factory--$30.9; -1.12; optionable): Restaurants
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cake.html
STATUS: Put. Failed with its fight at 32, tanking Friday on rising volume. Positions can still be taken on this move.
Volume: 992.26K Avg Volume: 691.909K
BUY POINT: New: $30.84 (orig. $31.25, $31.64) Volume=800K Target=$28 Stop=$32.75
POSITION: CFQ PG - April $35p (-62 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cake.html
Play Date: 01/18/2003
TARO (Taro Pharmaceuticals--$34.07; -0.44; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/taro.html
STATUS: Test of the 50 day MVA breach. TARO continues to slide below the 10 day MVA (34.75), edging lower on below average volume as it is unable to muster the upside strength. Looking for a higher volume break below 34 to really move in.
Volume: 190.14K Avg Volume: 363.045K
BUY POINT: New: $33.87 (orig. $34.79) Volume=375K Target=$31.05 Stop=$35.65
POSITION: QTT PU - April $37.50p (-54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/taro.html
Play Date: 01/18/2003
WSM (Williams Sonoma--$24.3; +0.2; optionable): Home furnishing stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wsm.html
STATUS: Put. 24 continues to be the hold up for a further fall. Friday WSM bounced up off of that on the low as volume jumped. Looks as if it might make a test up to the 10 day MVA (24.98) before starting back down. On a bounce up to 25 that fails it can be entered.
Volume: 2.53M Avg Volume: 1.553M
BUY POINT: A bounce up to 25 to $25.45 that fails, move in at 24.65. Volume=2M Target=$22.45 Stop=$26.35
POSITION: WSM QY - May $27.50p (-51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wsm.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING:
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ADTN 12/10 Test 18 34.75 -1.1 32.05 42 1M 800K 35.94
Current. Some support here at 35 but not looking good as volume moved higher on the Friday selling. Ready to exit if it cannot recover from here.
AMGN 01/22 A Wedge 52.24 -1.26 53.12 62 15M 20M 50.25
Current.
ANF 01/22 Test BO 26.29 -1.61 27.75 32.55 1.5M 2.5M 25.81
Current. Nice pattern breakout Thursday then Friday was caught in the firestorm of selling. Volume was much lower on the selling so perhaps it can resume the climb.
ANSI 01/14 Test BO 37.4 -0.42 38.36 46 151K 309K 35.67
Buy Not Issued.
APPX 01/25 Test BO 24.18 -0.46 24.26 29 521K 770K 22.56
New.
ASKJ 12/26 Cup hdl 4.59 +1.13 2.89 3.88 5.4M 305K 3.98
Target Hit. Great earnings gapped it higher.
AVCT 12/28 Test 50 22.07 -1.11 23.08 27 499K 750K 23.78
Exited.
AVCT 01/07 Test 50 22.07 -1.11 24.9 29 499K 750K 23.78
Exited.
AVID 10/30 Cup hdl 22.34 -0.43 15.65 25 875K 177K 21.75
Current. Holding on above the 18 day MVA as volume started up again Friday. Still holding steady.
AVO 12/16 A Wedge 12.23 -0.14 12.06 14.45 449K 210K 11.94
Current. Still trudging along the 18 day MVA.
BCGI 01/15 Put 11.66 -0.3 11.61 9.65 158K 225K 12.25
Buy Not Issued.
BORL 12/26 Cup hdl 13.33 -0.37 13.42 16.45 659K 1.2M 12.88
Current. After a nice bounce off the 50 day MVA, BORL sold Friday but held up well given all the market selling.
BRCM 01/02 Test 50 15.11 -2.5 16.85 20.45 28M 12M 17.45
Current. CEO resigning to keep his family together. Knifed below the 50 day MVA on volume. Looking for a bounce toward 17 to see if it has any staying power. Failure at that point is an exit signal.
BRCM 08/17 CCall 15.11 -2.5 19.2 19.8 28M 9M 17.25
Current.
BSTE 12/11 A Wedge 37.62 -0.48 34 41.25 375K 900K 35.74
Current. Nice pullback to the 18 day MVA on below average volume.
BVF 01/25 Put 28.96 -1.25 28.85 25.55 858K 1M 29.65
New.
CAKE 01/21 Put 30.9 -1.12 30.85 28 992K 800K 32.55
Buy Not Issued.
CCCG 01/06 Cup 20.91 -0.07 20.81 26 48K 173K 19.94
Current.
CELG 01/22 Cup hdl 23.31 -1.39 25.12 29.88 618K 1.2M 23.36
Buy Not Hit.
COLM 11/13 DB hdl 42.5 -1.42 41.96 48.45 1.7M 389K 44.25
Exited.
CTAS 01/15 Put 41.4 -1.31 44.96 41.75 1.5M 1.5M 45.25
Target Hit.
CVD 12/21 Cup hdl 26.59 +1.32 24.75 29.74 1.3M 581K 24.25
Current. Beautiful gap higher on excellent volume.
CVD 11/05 Test BO 26.59 +1.32 23.65 28 1.3M 581K 24.25
Current.
CVH 01/25 Put 27.99 -1.03 27.95 24.25 262K 600K 29.15
New.
EASI 01/15 A Wedge 37.58 -0.05 38.15 45.88 277K 300K 36.45
Buy Not Issued.
GRMN 11/06 Cup hdl 28.89 -0.05 22.34 34 195K 198K 28.35
Current. A harder read, but it is running out of some steam below the short term MVA and looks to be making a lower high. Needs to hold in this range and deliver a bounce. Nice gain already taken so we are inclined to see if it can hold in this range and move up yet again.
HNT 01/18 Cup hdl 27 -0.75 27.83 33.45 713K 934K 25.88
Buy Not Hit.
HSIC 12/09 Put 40.41 -0.96 44.15 40 675K 667K 43.84
Target Hit.
ICST 01/23 Rv H&S 20.85 -0.88 22.75 26.75 1.5M 2.6M 21.16
Buy Not Hit.
IDBE 12/16 DB hdl 7.3 -0.5 6.65 8.55 207K 165K 7.05
Current. Holding at the 10 day MVA on continued below average volume as IDBE tests the breakout. Needs to hold the line over 7.
JAKK 12/22 Put 12.2 -0.05 13.55 11 115K 325K 13.02
Current. Bounced up toward the 10 day MVA Thursday and held flat Friday on lower, below average volume. Looks simply like a test of the downtrend.
MDCO 01/10 Cup hdl 16.82 -0.21 17.35 20.85 311K 800K 16.72
Current. Second session at the 18 day MVA on very low volume. This is where the move needs to hold and start anew.
MEDI 01/03 A Wedge 29 -0.67 29.55 33.88 4.9M 5M 28.65
Current. Has turned right back down to the 18 day MVA and support at 29. Holds here or the breakout is over.
MERQ 12/11 Test BO 35.4 -1.53 31.55 41 3.3M 5M 34.74
Current. Strong move Thursday on volume, gave it all back on lighter volume Friday. Still wants to move up but having a hard time moving independent from the market.
MRCY 12/14 A Wedge 31.72 -0.56 33.2 38.45 214K 350K 31.74
Current. Testing the 18 day MVA on a low volume pullback. This is the breakout point and the do or die point.
MSN 12/21 Test BO 6 -0.02 5.92 7.45 180K 150K 4.94
Buy Not Issued.
MSN 12/04 Cup hdl 6 -0.02 4.85 6.35 180K 150K 5.38
Current.
MSN 11/23 Cup hdl 6 -0.02 4.15 6.35 180K 150K 5.38
Current.
NBIX 10/08 Rv H&S 45.27 -1.26 44.85 55 400K 1.1M 44.65
Current. Back at the 50 day MVA as it moves through its 3-month flat base.
NCEN 01/15 Cup hdl 28.4 +0.35 32.05 38.35 616K 1.3M 29.81
Buy Not Hit.
NFLX 01/25 A Wedge 12.33 +0.14 13.05 15.88 454K 503K 12.14
New.
NSCN 01/11 BO 18.05 -1.85 18.85 22.74 3.6M 1.8M 17.34
Buy Not Issued.
NSCN 12/22 Pennant 18.05 -1.85 17.24 21.24 3.6M 1.8M 17.34
Current. Man. Gapped up on great news Thursday, then trashed back down Friday. Held the 18 day MVA on the low but that is about all the good you can say.
NSM 01/25 Put 14.13 -0.53 13.96 11.95 2.2M 2.8M 15.05
New.
NXTL 01/08 A Wedge 12.35 -1.02 13.85 16.65 18M 30M 12.75
Current. Cracked below the 50 day MVA on rising though still below average volume. Need a quick recovery.
PNRA 01/25 Put 31.55 -1.11 31.45 28 983K 800K 32.35
New.
POSS 01/06 Test BO 19.14 -0.05 18.35 22.12 402K 167K 17.85
Current.
QCOM 12/21 Test 50 36.8 -1.13 39.15 48 13M 18M 36.41
Buy Not Issued. After the gap up on earnings QCOM turned back below the 50 day MVA. Some support at 36 that needs to hold.
QCOM 12/04 Test 18 36.8 -1.13 40.85 50 13M 18M 37
Current.
QCOM 11/07 Test BO 36.8 -1.13 34.78 42 13M 18M 37
Current.
QLGC 11/07 Test BO 35.95 -1.21 41.4 50 11M 25M 39.88
RECN 01/16 Cup hdl 19.8 -0.61 23.94 28.75 106K 203K 22.26
Buy Not Hit.
RINO 01/23 Put 15.25 -0.18 15.1 13.51 140K 375K 16.05
Current.
ROK 01/09 Cup hdl 22.42 -0.71 22.35 26.85 638K 1M 21.85
Current. Getting rocky, back down to the 18 day MVA but still holding above support at 22 as volume backs off. Needs to make an upside stand here.
SINA 12/31 Test BO 10.38 +0.11 6.25 10 1.3M 950K 8.25
Current. Holding up well but showing consecutive doji's indicates a test of the 10 day MVA near 9.50.
SINA 12/04 Test BO 10.38 +0.11 5.58 10 1.3M 950K 8.85
Current.
SOHU 01/03 BO 9.75 -0.22 7.96 9.45 531K 800K 8.94
Target Hit. Took some gain as it was spending too much time running in place after the strong move higher.
TARO 01/18 Put 34.07 -0.44 34.79 31.05 190K 375K 35.65
Current. Looks ready to fall further as it cannot break the short term MVA.
TECH 01/03 Put 25.72 -0.07 27.88 24 606K 400K 27.05
TSCO 10/16 Test BO 40.43 +1.83 39.05 46.85 1.2M 235K 39.84
Current. Gapped over the 50 day MVA on yet more great earnings. Closed off the high but held the exponential 50 day on strong volume.
URBN 12/22 Put 20.89 -0.88 23.36 20.22 335K 500K 22.65
Current. Turned back down at the 10 day MVA after making a run at it Thursday.
VERS 01/21 Test BO 12.25 +0.15 12.36 14.88 136K 184K 11.38
Buy Not Hit.
WSM 01/18 Put 24.3 +0.2 25.45 22.45 2.5M 2M 25.05
Current. Once again hit 24 on the low and bounced some on rising volume. This is where it needs to breakdown.
YHOO 12/11 Test 50 18.78 -0.3 17.32 22.75 12M 20M 18.15
Current. Holding the 10 day MVA on the close after coming off the 50 day MVA at 17.45. Not a strong bounce, but it is holding up well and we are going to let it continue to try and work higher.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
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