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yahoo stock, trading system
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INVESTMENT HOUSE ONLINE SEMINARS
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THE PLAYS:
Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information.
Best Plays: THQI, ALLY and APPB broke out, as did TIER (which remains a buy) and SHOO looks ready for the same. We have included some news puts (see Best Plays list) that are prime for a move down if the market rolls back over.
Best Plays:
1) SHOO: Looks ready to break out.
2) TIER: Still a buy on this move.
3) Puts: C, HWP, OEX, DJX, JPM
New Play:
SHOO (Steven Madden--$14.19; +0.25; optionable (SEU)): Footwear
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/shoo.html
STATUS: Moving laterally at support the last 7 days, moving up Monday (after dropping to a low of 13.38) on a shot of volume (158,300; avg. 164,681) in a handle to an 11-month base. The handle is not of the typical pullback we like to see, but the lateral movement of the last several days on low volume looks good. The stock as well shows strong money flow and a high relative strength (that has moved out ahead of price, a bullish sign). We are looking for a breakout over the handle high of 15.13. Initial target: $18.
BUY POINT: 15.26, on volume of 247,000 or better. Stop loss: 14.76 15.01.
POSITION: Stock and/or June $12.50 calls to buy (SEU FV).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/shoo.html
Semiconductor stocks: Covering again tonight since most of them pulled back on lower volume, as we expected. That puts the chips in position to rally back, but if the market begins to sell, they are in position to offer decent downside plays as well.
Continued Plays:
AMD (Advanced Micro Devices--$28.74; -0.70; optionable (AMD)):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amd.html
STATUS: Pulled back on lower volume (9.6 million; avg. 6.8 million). Price closed just above 28.50, hit three times in September, and on the lower volume we look for that to hold for a move back up in a sector rally. If that is delayed, look for support at the 200 day in a continued lower-volume pullback. Looking for a move over 29.71 on stronger volume, for a move up to the 33 range. In market selling, the stock can moved down to the 50 day MVA (23.09); on that move we will look at possible puts.
BUY POINT: Upside: On a move back over 29.71 on stronger volume. Downside: On a move below the 200 day MVA (26.76).
POSITION: Upside: Stock and/or July $25 calls to buy (AMD GE). Covered call or Put: May $25 calls to sell (AMD EE), and/or May $35 puts to buy (AMD QG).
LRCX (Lam Research--$27.94; -1.50; optionable (LMQ)):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lrcx.html
STATUS: Pulled back from Friday's doji as volume dropped to 5.28 million (avg. 4.7 million). If LRCX pulls back further on lower volume, we look for support at 26.88 (hit three times since September) or higher, until the sector rallies back. The stock hit a high of 30.13 Friday.
BUY POINT: Upside: On a move back up after a pullback to 26.88 or better.
POSITION: Upside: Stock and/or June $25 calls to buy (LMQ FE).
SMTC (Semtech--$33.94; -0.81; optionable (QTU)):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/smtc.html
STATUS: Tried to continued climbing, reaching a high of 37.50, then pulling back to close just under the 200 day MVA (34.45) and showing a loose doji. Volume was still high but lower at 2.6 million (avg. 1.1 million). We continue to look for support around 32 on a more extended low-volume pullback, which might happen due to the strong volume. We will look at new positions with stock or options on a move up from there. Should the market begin selling, we'll look for the stock to sell back to the 23 range (50 day MVA is at 27.76).
BUY POINT: Pullback: On a move back up from 32 in a resumption of chip rally. Downside: On a strong move below 32.
POSITION: Pullback: Stock and/or June $25 calls to buy (QTU FE). Downside: May $35 puts to buy (QTU QG).
BRKS (Brooks Automation--$42.38; -1.09; optionable (BQE)):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brks.html
STATUS: Pulled back after trying to stick a move up to the 45 range, volume sharply lower at 766,400 (avg. 478,000). Look for support at 41.50 to 42 on a continued pullback before the stock heads back up in a renewed chip rally. In market selling, we will look at buying puts on a move back down to 35 or lower. (50 day MVA is at 35.57).
BUY POINT: Upside after pullback: On a move back up from 41.50 to 42 on strong volume. Downside: On a move below 41.50 on stronger, selling volume.
POSITION: Upside: Stock and/or July $40 calls to buy (BQE GH). Put: May $45 puts to buy (BQE QI).
AMAT (Applied Materials--$49.31; -0.94; optionable (ANQ)):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amat.html
STATUS: Has been moving in a range, rolling a bit between 40-42 at its lows and 52 at the highs. The stock has dropped back the last two sessions after gapping up Friday and hitting 52.41. Volume was much lower on today's drop, coming in at 19 million (average 22 million), so we will see if it can hold here or at 48 for a move back up; however, if the stock continues falling back in a weakening Nasdaq and semi sector, a possible put back down to the 40-42 range.
BUY POINT: Upside: A move up after holding support here or at 48, looking for above average volume on the move up. Downside: In a selling Nasdaq and weak chip sector, a drop back through the 50 day MVA (46.78) on above average selling volume.
POSITION: Upside: Stock and/or July $45 calls to buy (ANQ GI). Downside: May $55 or $60 puts to buy (ANQ QK or ANQ QL).
NVLS (Novellus Systems--$45.56; -1.00; optionable (NLQ)):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvls.html
STATUS: Pulled back to support (200 day MVA, 45.36) on lower volume of 8.4 million (avg. 7 million), testing on the low its 10 day MVA (44.75). The stock is primed for a move up in a chip sector rally, in this low-volume pullback to support (see chart). Looking for a move over the high of 49 (Thursday) on a volume surge. Initial target: $50. In market selling and on a break of the support, we will look at downside plays with puts.
BUY POINT: Upside: On a bounce from support and move over 49 on volume of 11 million or better. Downside: Below 45 on stronger volume in a selling market.
POSITION: Upside: Stock and/or June $40 calls to buy (NLQ FH). Put: May $55 puts to buy (NLQ QK).
KLAC (Kla-Tencor--$44.94; 0.00; optionable (KCQ)):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/klac.html
STATUS: Was able to stop the strong fall we saw Friday, tapping down near its 200 day MVA (43.59) at its intraday low of 44 before recovering for a doji. After the fall, a doji on support indicates a possible move back up, and we are looking at the semiconductors to continue their strength. Should the market sell back, however, we will be ready for selling down to the 38 range. The recent high was 47.81, with the late-January intraday high being 48.69.
BUY POINT: Upside: On a move back up in a strong sector. Downside: On a break below 43 on stronger volume.
POSITION: Upside: Stock and/or June $35 calls to buy (KCQ FG). Put: May $50 puts to buy (KCQ QJ).
Updated Stock:
TIER (Tier Technology--$12.00; +1.37; no options): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tier.html
STATUS: A strong breakout from the handle (we covered TIER March 14 when it looked ready to make its breakout, moving up on strong volume but selling back down to support immediately). Volume was strong at 635,000 (avg. 147,000). The stock has almost surpassed our limit for buying on a breakout (12.21). TIER is in a 15-month base with a previous high of 13.88. The stock shows strong money flow and good buying, and relative strength broke out. Initial target: $13.
BUY POINT: Up to 12.12 on the breakout. Stop loss: 11.13-11.38.
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/tier.html
THE PORTFOLIOS: Each report, we look at these to see which is in a buy position. We don't cover them all each time, just the ones that are looking as if they are ready to pick up a few shares.
THE LEADERS: Some of the new leaders have fallen under the pressure of the bear market and can no longer be considered top picks for such investments (ACS, LLL, NATI, ESRX). We continue to look to stocks like CPN as the new leaders, as they are holding up well. With this in mind, we must reiterate that while we are looking for any of these stocks to once again yield long-term investments when the markets turns, for now the plays for moves up in such stocks should only be considered short-term. We must focus on the stocks that are performing best in a down market as they tend to help lead when the market turns back up.
New Leaders: CPN, SGR (ESRX, NATI, LLL, ACS)
Previous Leaders: ADBE, AMCC, ARBA, BEAS, BRCD, CIEN, EMC, EXTR, GLW, JNPR, NEWP, NTAP, PMCS, SCMR, SEBL, VRSN, VRTS
No plays tonight.
UP & COMERS PORTFOLIOS: We have added some new stocks to this portfolio: LNCR, BJ, ANF, LOW, HI and THQI. We like the patterns and their earnings numbers, and they are holding up in this market. The currently existing members (EXDS, TQNT, BVSN, SANM, PKI and GMST) are on a current watchlist we will continue to monitor for recovery when the market finally emerges from the bear market.
THQI (Thq Inc--$36.88; +2.38; optionable (QHI)): Multimedia & Graphics Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/thqi.html
STATUS: Continued the breakout, and just surpassed our limit (5% over the buy point of 34.63) for buying on the breakout. Volume surged even higher to 1 million (avg. 384,683) on the move, and the way this stock moved on its last run up from the 50 day MVA (currently at 29.92) early this month, the aggressive can look at playing this breakout higher. Look for the test of 34.63 (or better) on a pullback. Initial target: $38-39.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: On further upward movement on continued strong volume. Pullback: After a test of 34.63 (buy point) or better. Stop loss: 34-34.38.
POSITION: Both positions: Stock and/or Stock and/or June $30 calls to buy (QHI FF).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/thqi.html
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: BRCM, CHKP, CSCO, EMLX, IDTI, INTC, JDSU, MVSN, NT, PWER, SUNW, VTSS
PUT PLAYS: Looking at some new (and continued) puts tonight as several stocks are set up after moves up the last two days and volume pulled back today. As always, keep reasonable loss cutting rules in place, be ready to close positions quickly if necessary, and make sure you see the downside move, along with the market going down as well, and then enter.
New Puts:
C (Citigroup--$44.20; +1.35; optionable (C)): Banking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/c.html
STATUS: Ran up for two days on decreasing volume that reached average levels Monday (13.8 million). Tapping the 10 day MVA on the high of 44.40, C is in position to turn back down in market selling, for a possible drop as far as the March low of 39.
BUY POINT: On a move down from here on stronger, selling volume, we will look at positions with May $50 puts to buy (C QJ).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/c.html
HWP (Hewlett-Packard Co--$31.65; +0.48; optionable (HWP)): Computer hardware
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hwp.html
STATUS: Is at the 50 day MVA again (32.08), resistance that turned the stock back down earlier this month. The stock, showing a doji at the top of a 3-day run on decreasing volume, is juicy for a put play back down from here in market selling. Look for stronger volume on the move for taking possible positions.
BUY POINT: On a move back down in market selling, for a move down to the 28 range (March lows), May $45 puts to buy (HWP QI).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/hwp.html
Continued Puts:
JPM (JP Morgan--$42.11; +0.40; optionable (JPM)): Banking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jpm.html
STATUS: Showing a doji at the top of a two-day run, tapping the 10 day MVA on the high of 42.99. Volume was lower at 8.3 million (avg. 9.3 million), fueling the stock's vulnerability for a move down in a selling market. We will look at buying puts on possible selling.
BUY POINT: On a move down from here on stronger volume in market selling, May $50 puts to buy (JPM QJ).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/jpm.html
RMBS (Rambus--$23.12; -2.43; optionable (BYQ)): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rmbs.html
STATUS: Started the move down, but volume was lower (7.1 million; avg. 4 million). On a move below 23 on rising volume, continue to look for a drop back to 20 or lower (March low is 15.67).
BUY POINT: On a move below 23 (intraday low) on rising volume, May $35 puts to buy (BYQ QG).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/rmbs.html
NEWP (Newport--$40.21; +0.11; optionable (NZZ)): Scientific & Technical Instruments http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/newp.html
STATUS: Holding steady, moving up only a few cents as volume dropped back below average (2.6 million; avg. 3.5 million). Looking for a move back down on stronger volume for a possible put down to the March low of 30.44. 10 day MVA is at 37.82, so we want to see move on selling (stronger volume).
BUY POINT: On a move back down on continued strong volume, May $55 puts to buy (NZZ QK).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/newp.html
OEX (Standard & Poors 100--$588.45; +7.74; optionable (OEB, OEY)):
STATUS: Moved up and tested the 10 day MVA on the intraday high of 592.26. Volume was lower and below average at 1.1 million (avg. 1.2 million), setting the index for a move back down. We are looking at a target around 570 for a possible put play.
BUY POINT: On a move down from here on rising volume.
POSITION: From here, April $590 puts to buy (OEB PR).
DJX ($96.88; +1.83; optionable (DJV)):
STATUS: Moved up from a low of 95.09, almost reaching the 10 day MVA (97.95) on lower volume (1.1 million; avg. 1.2 million). That action sets the index up for a fall, so we are looking for a move back down to the 95 range.
POSITION: On a move down from here or the 10 day MVA (97.95) on stronger, selling volume, May $106 puts to buy (DJV QB).
Good Investing!
Jon Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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