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stock recommendation, stock option
Begin Part 2 of
THE PLAYS:
Good moves: APPX; NSM; PNRA
New Plays:
Downside:
Play Date: 01/30/2003
MCHP (Microchip--$21.63; -1.17; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mchp.html
STATUS: Put. Plunged through the 200 day MVA near 25 in early January and has spent the last week fighting back up to the 10 day MVA. Thursday it tapped again at the 10 day MVA on the high (22.75) and then rolled over. It looks ready for a quick move down as the war pace crescendos.
Volume: 3.986M Avg Volume: 4.507M
BUY POINT: $21.45 Volume=4.5M Target=$18.05 Stop=$22.85
POSITION: QMT PX - Apr. $22.50p (-50 delta) or QMT PE - Apr. $25p (-66 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mchp.html
Play Date: 01/30/2003
MMC (March & McLennan--$41.97; -1.33; optionable): Insurance brokers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mmc.html
STATUS: Put. Broke the 200 and 50 day MVA now at 47 and 46 nine sessions back. It has made a stand at 42, bouncing up Monday to Wednesday toward the 10 day MVA at 44. Thursday it turned back down and landed on 42. Looks as if this test of the 10 day is failing, and we are looking for a break through 42 on stronger volume.
Volume: 1.625M Avg Volume: 1.577M
BUY POINT: $41.55 Volume=2M Target=$38 Stop=$42.55
POSITION: MMC OI - Mar. $45p (-66 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mmc.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside
Play Date: 01/06/2003
CCCG (CCC Information Services--$20.7; -0.2; no options): Management services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cccg.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Held up well in the lateral move along the 10 day MVA on very light volume during the selling. That is about the best action you can get in such a day of selling: holidng the gains and waiting for the next upside.
Volume: 25.732K Avg Volume: 105.409K
BUY POINT: $21.12 Volume=173K Target=$26 Stop=$19.94
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cccg.html
Play Date: 01/25/2003
NFLX (Netflix--$12.63; +0.28; optionable): Mail order movie rental
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nflx.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Held up well in the pattern, even managing a small gain in all the selling. Near the top of the triangle. Accumulation in the larger base is solid at 7 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume and money flow is strong and rising up ahead of the stock price showing a positive divergence, meaning that money flow is higher at this price than it was when the stock was at 14 in June.
Volume: 264.695K Avg Volume: 335.954K
BUY POINT: $13.05 Volume=503K Target=$15.88 Stop=$12.14
POSITION: QNQ FV - June $12.50c (58 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nflx.html
Downside:
Play Date: 01/25/2003
BVF (Biovail--$28.37; -0.89; optionable): Drug delivery systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bvf.html
STATUS: Put. Ran up to test the 50 day MVA the past two sessions, gapping over that level on the Thursday open (29.50), but then rolling back down on rising volume. It was still below average, but it was higher than the very low rebound volume after the 50 day MVA breach. Looks ready for a move toward the target.
Volume: 681.2K Avg Volume: 1.014M
BUY POINT: New: 28.25 (orig. $28.85) Volume=1M Target=$25.55 Stop=$29.65
POSITION: BVF PF - April $30p (-51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bvf.html
Play Date: 01/27/2003
LEH (Lehman Brothers--$53.78; -1.37; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/leh.html
STATUS: Put. Made the test of 56 again on the high and started lower. Volume was not stronger, but on further market selling LEH will be one that we think falls.
Volume: 2.025M Avg Volume: 2.36M
BUY POINT: New: 53.65 (orig. $55.45) Volume=2.8M Target=$50 (new); $51.75 (orig positions) Stop=$56.55
POSITION: LEH PK - April $55p (-47 delta) or LEH OK - Mar. $55p (-49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/leh.html
Play Date: 01/29/2003
WB (Wachovia Corp.--$35.72; -0.17; optionable): Money banking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wb.html
STATUS: Put. 200 day MVA test. WB broke below the 200 day MVA at 36 Monday and has spent the last three sessions unable to recover over that level. Wednesday it sold to 35 and rallied back on stronger, above average volume, but again failed to make the move over the 200 day. Looking for the stock to fail at this level or at 36.50 at the 50 day MVA.
Volume: 3.125M Avg Volume: 2.933M
BUY POINT: $35.28 Volume=3.5M Target=$32.05 Stop=$36.05
POSITION: WB PU - April $37.50p (-57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wb.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING:
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AMGN 01/22 A Wedge 50.98 -1.23 53.12 62 9.2M 20M 50.25
Current.
ANF 01/22 Test BO 26.8 -0.62 27.75 32.55 1.3M 2.5M 25.81
Current.
ANSI 01/14 Test BO 37.6 +0.2 38.36 46 172K 309K 35.67
Buy Not Issued.
APPX 01/25 Test BO 27.08 +0.48 25.4 30 1M 770K 23.32
Current.
ASKJ 12/26 Cup hdl 4.9 -0.07 2.89 3.88 673K 305K 3.98
Current.
AVO 12/16 A Wedge 12.29 +0.08 12.06 14.45 94K 210K 11.94
Current.
BCGI 01/15 Put 12.77 +1.25 11.61 9.65 724K 225K 12.25
Buy Not Issued.
BRCM 01/02 Test 50 12.63 -1.25 16.85 20.45 20M 12M 17.45
Current.
BRCM 08/17 CCall 12.63 -1.25 19.2 19.8 20M 9M 17.25
Current.
BSTE 12/11 A Wedge 35.14 +0.52 34 41.25 933K 900K 35.74
Exited.
BVF 01/25 Put 28.37 -0.89 28.85 25.55 681K 1M 29.65
Current.
CAKE 01/21 Put 31.24 -0.22 30.85 28 389K 800K 32.55
Buy Not Issued.
CBRL 01/29 Cup hdl 31.65 -0.32 32.95 38.45 391K 925K 30.64
Buy Not Hit.
CCCG 01/06 Cup 20.7 -0.2 20.81 26 26K 173K 19.94
Current.
CKFR 01/28 Cup hdl 18.87 -0.6 20.85 25 1.5M 2M 18.94
Buy Not Hit.
CURE 12/30 Cup hdl 18.75 -0.63 18.22 21.85 315K 176K 17.74
Current.
CVD 12/21 Cup hdl 26.2 -0.7 24.75 29.74 632K 581K 24.25
Current.
CVD 11/05 Test BO 26.2 -0.7 23.65 28 632K 581K 24.25
Current.
CVH 01/25 Put 27.03 -0.85 27.95 24.25 475K 600K 29.15
Current.
EASI 01/15 A Wedge 36.89 -0.83 38.15 45.88 144K 300K 36.45
Buy Not Issued.
GPN 01/27 Put 27.75 -0.75 27.85 24.25 78K 175K 29.11
Buy Not Issued.
GRMN 11/06 Cup hdl 29.07 -0.19 22.34 34 260K 198K 28.35
Current.
HNT 01/18 Cup hdl 26.22 -0.06 27.83 33.45 408K 934K 25.88
Buy Not Hit.
JAKK 12/22 Put 12.2 0 13.55 11 104K 325K 13.02
Current.
KNSY 01/27 Test BO 18.45 -0.82 19.74 23.68 46K 100K 18.36
Buy Not Hit.
LEH 01/27 Put 53.78 -1.37 55.45 51.75 2M 2.8M 56.55
Buy Not Hit.
MCHP 01/30 Put 21.63 -1.17 21.45 18.05 4M 4.5M 22.85
New.
MDCO 01/10 Cup hdl 16.44 +0.23 17.35 20.85 294K 800K 16.72
Current.
MERQ 12/11 Test BO 36.37 -0.88 31.55 41 3.9M 5M 34.74
Current.
MMC 01/30 Put 41.97 -1.33 41.55 38 1.6M 2M 42.55
New.
MRCY 12/14 A Wedge 31.94 -0.56 33.2 38.45 315K 350K 31.74
Current.
MSN 12/21 Test BO 6.89 -0.11 5.92 7.45 473K 150K 4.94
Buy Not Issued.
MSN 12/04 Cup hdl 6.89 -0.11 4.85 6.35 473K 150K 5.38
Current.
MSN 11/23 Cup hdl 6.89 -0.11 4.15 6.35 473K 150K 5.38
Current.
MVL 01/28 BO 11.09 +0.04 11.24 13.48 749K 677K 10.45
Buy Not Hit.
NCEN 01/15 Cup hdl 27.6 -1.18 32.05 38.35 368K 1.3M 29.81
Buy Not Hit.
NFLX 01/25 A Wedge 12.63 +0.28 13.05 15.88 265K 503K 12.14
Buy Not Hit.
NSCN 01/11 BO 19.7 -0.28 18.85 22.74 2.8M 1.8M 17.34
Buy Not Issued.
NSCN 12/22 Pennant 19.7 -0.28 17.24 21.24 2.8M 1.8M 17.34
Current.
NSM 01/25 Put 13.4 -0.91 13.96 11.95 2.7M 2.8M 15.05
Current.
NXTL 01/08 A Wedge 12.15 -0.64 13.85 16.65 14M 30M 12.75
Current.
PNRA 01/25 Put 29.06 -2.7 30.55 27 5.2M 800K 32.05
Current.
POSS 01/06 Test BO 19 -0.41 18.35 22.12 157K 167K 17.85
Current.
QCOM 12/21 Test 50 37.54 -0.47 39.15 48 14M 18M 36.41
Buy Not Issued.
QCOM 12/04 Test 18 37.54 -0.47 40.85 50 14M 18M 37
Current.
QCOM 11/07 Test BO 37.54 -0.47 34.78 42 14M 18M 37
Current.
QLGC 11/07 Test BO 35.35 -2.02 41.4 50 8.8M 25M 39.88
RECN 01/16 Cup hdl 19.72 -0.14 23.94 28.75 59K 203K 22.26
Buy Not Hit.
RINO 01/23 Put 15.1 -0.23 15.1 13.51 401K 375K 16.05
Current.
ROK 01/09 Cup hdl 22.2 +0.2 22.35 26.85 1.2M 1M 21.85
Current.
SINA 12/31 Test BO 7.11 -0.82 6.25 10 2.3M 950K 8.25
Current.
SINA 12/04 Test BO 7.11 -0.82 5.58 10 2.3M 950K 8.85
Current.
SOHU 01/03 BO 8.42 -0.58 7.96 9.45 600K 800K 8.94
Target Hit.
TARO 01/18 Put 34.17 +0.31 34.79 31.05 150K 375K 35.65
Current.
TECH 01/03 Put 22.8 +0.2 27.88 24 739K 400K 27.05
Target Hit.
TSCO 10/16 Test BO 37.07 -1.84 39.05 46.85 394K 235K 39.84
Current.
UCBH 01/28 Put 42.25 -0.31 42.45 40 161K 1.7M 43.25
Current.
WB 01/29 Put 35.15 -0.57 35.28 32.05 2.2M 3.5M 36.05
Buy Not Hit.
WFSL 01/28 Put 23.67 -0.38 23.96 21.51 211K 301K 24.65
Current.
WSM 01/18 Put 23.2 -0.71 25.45 22.45 1.4M 2M 25.05
Target Hit.
YHOO 12/11 Test 50 18.09 -0.74 17.32 22.75 5.2M 20M 18.15
Current.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
stock option
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