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yahoo stock, top stock pick
Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information.
Best Plays: DELL and NDE are developing plays, forming handles to saucer bases. WGR is ready to move up, and we are again covering some of the chip stocks that still look pretty good. We have included some news puts that are primed for a move down as the market heads into more potential selling.
Best Plays:
1) WGR: Ready to move up in the handle.
2) Puts: GLW, AMAT, CIEN, CHKP, QQQ. They all look good.
New Plays:
NDE (Indymac Bancorp--$28.36; -0.01; optionable (NDE)): Savings & Loan
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nde.html
STATUS: The stock is in a three-month saucer (shallow cup) base, with price moving laterally the last two days on steadily falling volume (reaching Wednesday 344,900; avg. 387,000). While we would like to see the stock hold this support level, it is likely to pull back as volume continues to decline, to test 27.70 before heading into a breakout. The stock shows great money flow and good buying, and relative strength has moved out ahead of price, a bullish sign. Recent high is 29.19.
BUY POINT: Pullback: On a move back up from 27.70 on stronger volume. Breakout:
29.32, on volume of 581,000 or better. Stop loss: 28.82-29.07.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $25 calls to buy (NDE GE).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/nde.html
WGR (Western Gas--$31.23; +0.33; optionable (WGR)): Oil & Gas pipelines
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wgr.html
STATUS: Looks ready to make a move up from the base of an extended handle that tested support at the 18 day MVA (30.65) the last two days. Volume shot up (568,200; avg. 206,000) as the stock made a small move from the support, and we are looking for a surge up on the momentum. High money flow and good buying; relative strength is out ahead of price, a bullish sign. Target on the breakout: $38-40. The stock gapped up strongly on March 7, after the third offer to buy one of the sector companies in 3 months convinced investors more well-priced bids are on the horizon.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: On a move up from here on continued strong volume. Breakout: 34.58, on continued strong volume (minimum breakout volume is 309,000). Stop loss: 34.08--34.33.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $30 calls to buy (WGR GF).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/wgr.html
Semiconductor stocks: A few of these look ready for continued upside plays.
Continued Plays:
BRKS (Brooks Automation Inc--$42.13; -2.25; optionable (BQE)):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvls.html
STATUS: On lower volume the stock pulled back to show a doji at support (February high of 41.63). After the strong moves of Thursday and Friday, price is trying to hang on and consolidate for a move back up over, for now, 45.50, a level the stock tapped the last three days. On the fine run of last week BRKS hit a high for the month at 47.50. Looking for a move back up from here, if the stock can refrain from testing the 10 day MVA at 40 first. Target: $51-$52.
BUY POINT: Over 46 on rising volume (Wednesday's volume was 756,500; avg. 491,545). Stop loss: 45-45.25.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $45 calls to buy (BQE GH).
LRCX (Lam Research--$26.63; -1.50; optionable (LMQ)):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lrcx.html
STATUS: Pulled back the last three days from the high hit Friday (30.13) as volume fell back to average or below levels (Wednesday at 4.65 million; avg. 4.7 million). The stock hit support (10 day MVA) on the slightly higher volume; we are looking for a bounce from here if the stock does not continue to test the 18 day MVA again (at 25.89), for a move back over the high. Target on that move: $33-35.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: On a bounce from here, or move up from the 18 day MVA (26) on stronger volume. Safer: Over 30.13 on rising, above average volume.
POSITION: Aggressive: Stock and/or June $22.50 or $25 calls to buy (LMQ FQ or FE).
AMD (Advanced Micro --$27.70; -1.99; optionable (AMD)):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amd.html
STATUS: Pulling back like the other chips featured tonight, testing near the 200 day and 10 day MVAs (converged at 26.61) on the low of 27.15. Volume was slightly lower at 9.2 million (avg. 7 million). We are looking for a move back up after a test of the February high of 26.75, or the lower support at the moving averages, for a move back over 30.92, the high reached Tuesday. Target on that move: $35-36.
BUY POINT: Over 31, on stronger, rising volume. Stop loss: 30.50-30.75.
Stop loss:
POSITION: Stock and/or July $22.50 calls to buy (AMD GX).
Updated Stock:
DELL (Dell Computer--$26.44; -0.56; optionable (DLQ)): Computers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvls.html
STATUS: DELL has been holding up well, currently pulling back from the March high of 28 in a bouncing consolidation above its 10 day MVA (25.70), forming since late January a saucer with handle base. Volume remains above average at 43.2 million (avg. 35 million) even as it dropped back slightly, the stock showing a tight doji at the low in the intraday range (26.38). While DELL may hold here, the doji signaling a move up after this slight pullback, the stock can test the 10 day MVA again (as it did the last two days) due to the high volume. From there, we look for a bounce back up for a move over the recent high. Initial target on that move: $31-32.
BUY POINT: Breakout: 28.13, on volume of 53 million or better. Stop loss: 27.63-27.88.
POSITION: Stock and/or August $22.50 calls to buy (DLQ HX).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/dell.html
THE PORTFOLIOS: Each report, we look at these to see which is in a buy position. We don't cover them all each time, just the ones that are looking as if they are ready to pick up a few shares.
THE LEADERS: Some of the new leaders have fallen under the pressure of the bear market and can no longer be considered top picks for such investments (ACS, LLL, NATI, ESRX). We continue to look to stocks like CPN as the new leaders, as they are holding up well. With this in mind, we must reiterate that while we are looking for any of these stocks to once again yield long-term investments when the markets turns, for now the plays for moves up in such stocks should only be considered short-term. We must focus on the stocks that are performing best in a down market as they tend to help lead when the market turns back up.
New Leaders: CPN, SGR (ESRX, NATI, LLL, ACS)
Previous Leaders: ADBE, AMCC, ARBA, BEAS, BRCD, CIEN, EMC, EXTR, GLW, JNPR, NEWP, NTAP, PMCS, SCMR, SEBL, VRSN, VRTS
CIEN, GLW, and VRTS are puts in that section.
UP & COMERS PORTFOLIOS: We have added some new stocks to this portfolio: LNCR, BJ, ANF, LOW, HI and THQI. We like the patterns and their earnings numbers, and they are holding up in this market. The currently existing members (EXDS, TQNT, BVSN, SANM, PKI and GMST) are on a current watchlist we will continue to monitor for recovery when the market finally emerges from the bear market.
No reports on these stocks tonight.
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: BRCM, CHKP, CSCO, EMLX, IDTI, INTC, JDSU, MVSN, NT, PWER, SUNW, VTSS
No reports on these stocks tonight (CHKP is a continued put play).
PUT PLAYS: The market looks ready to sell some more, so we have found more new puts and carry on with current plays that look good. As always, keep reasonable loss cutting rules in place, be ready to close positions quickly if necessary, and make sure you see the downside move, along with the market going down as well, and then enter.
New Puts:
AMAT (Applied Materials--$47.69; -3.19; optionable (ANQ)):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amat.html
STATUS: Sold back below the 10 day MVA but above the 50 day MVA (46.97) on stronger volume (32.2 million; avg. 22 million). On a break of the 50 day on continued selling in the Nasdaq, we will look at buying puts with a target of 39.06, the March low.
BUY POINT: Below 46.97 on stronger selling, May $55 or $60 puts to buy (ANQ QK or QL).
GLW (Corning Inc--$21.47; -3.52; optionable (GLW )): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/glw.html
STATUS: Posted a new low on a strong shot of volume (19.1 million; avg. 13.8 million), breaking below previous support, a lateral consolidation (23) of the last 12 days. We are looking for a continued move down; money flow and relative strength are on the floor. The stock turned down from the 10 day MVA (24.19), which has held GLW down since late January.
BUY POINT: On a continued move down on further selling, May $27.50 puts to buy (GLW QY).
CTXS (Citrix Systems Inc--$21.00; -1.50; optionable (XSQ)): Internet Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctxs.html
STATUS: This stock was looking pretty good in late January, but dropped to a March low of 16.88 this month. It has come up off that for a run up to 22, but the 200 day MVA (23.45) is giving it some trouble. The stock opened at the 18 day MVA (21.80), and on lower volume closed just above the 10 day MVA (20.81). On a break of that on rising volume, we will look at buying puts for a move down to the low or better.
BUY POINT: Below 20.88 (10 day MVA) on rising volume in market selling, May $25 puts to buy (XSQ QE).
Continued Puts:
PDE (Pride Internat--$23.47; -0.31; optionable (PDE)): Oil & Gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pde.html
STATUS: Tried to move higher after gapping down on the opening price (23.25), but volume was lower (673,100; avg. 955,000) as the high made it just above Tuesday's closing price of 23.47 before the stock dropped back down. Looks like 24 is now forming resistance, and on a re-test of that level, we will look at puts for a move down to 19, the height of the stock's head and shoulders pattern (which is breaking down over the last 6 days).
BUY POINT: On a move down after a test of 24 on rising volume, May $25 puts to buy (PDE QE).
CHKP (Check Point Software--$50.50; -7.56; optionable (KEQ)): Computer Software
STATUS: Turned down from the 10 day MVA (56.75) on strong volume (17.6 million; avg. 9.4 million), chalking up a new low on the move. Looking for more downside, for which we will look at buying puts as the market heads down. Target: $43-45.
BUY POINT: On a move down from here in continued selling, May $65 (KEQ QM).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/chkp.html
CIEN (Ciena--$46.75; -7.06; optionable (UEE)):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cien.html
STATUS: Very weak, gapping down and continuing down through its recent lows on a surge in volume (37.1 million; average 18.4 million). You have to go to April/May of 2000 to find levels down in the 39-45 range, and we will look at a put play on CIEN down to a target of 40.
PLAY: A move down from here on continued strong volume, with May $60 puts to buy (EUQ QL).
OEX (Standard & Poors 100--$588.31; -17.27; optionable (OEB, OEY)):
STATUS: This was an aggressive play from last night, but the move was there as the index broke back below the 10 day MVA (592.85) on slightly lower but still above average volume (1.3 million). On continued selling, we are looking for a continued move down to the 570 range. May try to test the 10 day before heading back down.
BUY POINT: On a continued move down from here on continued rising volume, or, on a move down after a test of the 10 day MVA at 592, April $600 or $595 puts to buy (OEY PT, or OEB PS).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/oex.html
QQQ (Nasdaq 100--$39.70; -3.55; optionable (QQQ)):
STATUS: Turned down from the 10 day MVA (42.90) on stronger volume (77.8 million; avg. 66.7 million), posting a new closing low for the month. The index looks ready for a continued fall, and we will look at buying puts on the move. Target: $34-35.
BUY POINT: On continued selling from here, May $47 puts to buy (QQQ QU).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/qqq.html
Good Investing!
Jon Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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yahoo stock
top stock pick
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