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us stock market, stock market
Begin Part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good moves: OEX; BSTE; CVH; DCX; GRMN
Best Plays:
1) TARO: Weak test of the 200 day MVA.
2) PNRA: Tapped the 10 day MVA and rolled over on high volume.
3) JPM: Starting the fall.
4) GPN: May finally be ready.
5) KSWS: Strong volume breakout.
6) NFLX: Strong volume move out of the pattern.
New Plays:
Downside:
Play Date: 02/01/2003
BGEN (Biogen--$37.76; -0.82; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bgen.html
STATUS: Put. We looked at BGEN earlier when it ran up to the exponential 50 day MVA. It did not fail there but instead ran up to the simple 50 day MVA (40.42) and then fell. Wednesday it gapped beliw the 200 day MVA (38.27) on a strong volume surge. It has already sold from near 41, so what we are expecting is another attempt toward 39ish that fails. That would be our preferred entry point. Given the high volume, it may continue to fall here and we will take some positions on such a move.
Volume: 6.437M Avg Volume: 3.403M
BUY POINT: Test of 39 that fails: 38.15. From here: $37.65 Volume=3.5M Target=$34 Stop=$38.65
POSITION: BGQ PH - April 40p (-66 delta) or BGQ OH - Mar. 40p (-61 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bgen.html
Play Date: 02/12/2003
PNRA (Panera Bread--$27.6; -1.12; optionable): Specialty food
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pnra.html
STATUS: Put. PNRA has been in a strong downtrend since early January and has made us some money in the past. Tuesday it bounced up off a doji to test the 10 day MVA (28.80). Wednesday it tapped the 10 day again and then turned over and closed lower on rising volume. We really like the reversal at the 10 day MVA in a continuing downtrend. This is the second test of the 10 day MVA during this downtrend and we are using it to enter for another part of the downtrend as there is plenty of room to the downside.
Volume: 1.518M Avg Volume: 689.09K
BUY POINT: $27.48 Volume=1.2M Target=$24 Stop=$29
POSITION: UPQ QF - May $30p (-62 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pnra.html
Play Date: 02/12/2003
TARO (Taro Pharmaceuticals--$31.08; -0.35; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/taro.html
STATUS: Put. TARO is really starting to get into its downtrend after having broken and failed a test of the 50 day MVA (34.70). Friday it plunged through the 200 day MVA (31.62) and has made a low volume rally up to test that level. It did that on Wednesday and fell back. Looking to jump on to the downside on a failed attempt to retake the 200 day. It can fall fast when it starts to fall.
Volume: 186.914K Avg Volume: 351.363K
BUY POINT: $30.94 Volume=300K Target=$27.35 Stop=$32.05
POSITION: QTT PG - April $35p (-74 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/taro.html
Play Date: 02/12/2003
WFMI (Whole Foods Market--$45.81; +0.25; optionable): Health food grocery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfmi.html
STATUS: Put. WFMI was a leader and then broke down, plunging through the 200 day MVA (47.35) a week back. It has managed a lower volume bounce up to the 10 day MVA, tapping that level intraday on the Wednesday high (46.49) and then fadeing to the close. This looks like a classic low volume test of the 10 day MVA after the breakdown and failed test.
Volume: 721.638K Avg Volume: 888.636K
BUY POINT: $45.65 Volume=850K Target=$41.85 Stop=$46.74
POSITION: FMQ QI - May $45p (-42 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wfmi.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 02/08/2003
AFFX (Affymetrix--$25.75; -0.58; optionable): Biotech drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/affx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still holding up in the handle on low, below average volume. Given the market action, this is what we want to see until the selling ends. Positive accumulation at 3 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume.
Volume: 865.117K Avg Volume: 974.727K
BUY POINT: $26.55 Volume=1.5M Target=$30.55 Stop=$24.69
POSITION: FIQ HE - August $25c (64 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/affx.html
Play Date: 01/28/2003
CKFR (Checkfree--$18.55; +0.13; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ckfr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Started moving up in the handle but stopped at the 18 day MVA. Volume continued stronger but still below average. Just waiting for it to make its move if it will.
Volume: 964.312K Avg Volume: 1.252M
BUY POINT: $20.85 Volume=2M Target=$25 Stop=$18.94
POSITION: FCQ EW - May $17.50c (70 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ckfr.html
Play Date: 02/06/2003
KSWS (K-Swiss--$26; +0.84; optionable): Sporting shoes
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/ksws.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Making the breakout on continued solid, above average volume. Has held up remarkably well during the market selling, actually breaking out when it fails. Still a buy at this point.
Volume: 302.686K Avg Volume: 205.636K
BUY POINT: New: $26.06 (orig. $25.77) Volume=300K Target=$30.88 Stop=$23.44
POSITION: SWU GX - July $22.50c (66 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ksws.html
Play Date: 01/10/2003
MDCO (The Medicines Company--$17.65; +0.68; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mdco.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. Some wild action Tuesday that tested the 50 day MVA on the low and rebounded. It then started to move higher Wednesday on rising volume. Tested 18 on the high again and fell back. Still looks strong and want it to break over that 18 resistance.
Volume: 1.226M Avg Volume: 684.681K
BUY POINT: New: 18.08 (orig. $17.35) Volume=800K Target=$20.85 Stop=$16.15
POSITION: MQL DV - April $12.50c (64 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mdco.html
Play Date: 01/25/2003
NFLX (Netflix--$13.28; +0.3; optionable): Mail order DVD rental
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nflx.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Ran up to the buy point Wednesday on some above average volume, but the move was mostly a gap so we held off. It is really bucking the market trend, and if we see more volume on a further move that will be good to go.
Volume: 401.33K Avg Volume: 347.363K
BUY POINT: $13.28 Volume=503K Target=$15.88 Stop=$12.15
POSITION: QNQ FV - June $12.50c (58 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nflx.html
Downside:
Play Date: 02/03/2003
FON (Sprint Fon Group--$12.56; +0.17; optionable): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fon.html
STATUS: Put. Rallied up to test just over the 200 day MVA on the high (12.75) and fell back some toward the close on lower volume. A lower volume test of the 200 day. Looking for FON to fail at this point after flirting with it for several sessions. We want to see a good push lower on volume.
Volume: 3.34M Avg Volume: 4.014M
BUY POINT: $12.42 Volume=3.8M Target=$10 Stop=$13.05
POSITION: FON OC - March $15p (-69 delta) or FON QC - April $15p (-58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/fon.html
Play Date: 01/27/2003
GPN (Global Payments--$28; -0.44; optionable): Business services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gpn.html
STATUS: Put. GPN continues to struggle below the 18 day MVA (28.72), turning lower on slightly rising volume Wednesday after making another moved toward that level on the high (28.62). We would like to see another push lower as volume jumps even more as GPN has been up and down at this 28 level.
Volume: 120.2K Avg Volume: 135.909K
BUY POINT: $27.85 Volume=175K Target=$24.25 Stop=$29.11
POSITION: GPN OF - Mar. $30p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gpn.html
Play Date: 02/11/2003
JPM (JP Morgan--$21.51; -0.49; optionable): Money bank
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jpm.html
STATUS: Put. Started the fall after the half-hearted test toward the 10 day MVA (22.57), moving below 22. Very good delta and price make this still a good play at this point.
Volume: 9.578M Avg Volume: 10.176M
BUY POINT: $21.74 Volume=12M Target=$18 Stop=$22.85
POSITION: JPM OE - Mar. $25p (-71 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jpm.html
Play Date: 02/11/2003
MI (Marshall & Ilsley--$25.75; -0.2; optionable): Regional bank
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mi.html
STATUS: Put. Moved below 26 Wednesday though volume backed off after that big test of the 10 day MVA failed and rolled over Tuesday. Would like to see one more bounce up over 26 and then a higher volume rollover.
Volume: 222.3K Avg Volume: 375.09K
BUY POINT: $25.87 Volume=350K Target=$23.35 Stop=$26.85
POSITION: MI OF - Mar. 30p (-96 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mi.html
Play Date: 02/04/2003
NPSP (NPS Pharmaceuticals--$22.37; -0.46; optionable): Biotech drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/npsp.html
STATUS: Put. Followed the Monday rebound with a run up Tuesday on stronger volume but tapped the 18 day MVA on the high (23.17) and pulled back. Wednesday NPSP hit the 18 day MVA again on the high and fell back to the 10 day MVA. Volume was back to near average as it fell back. If it gets some volume it can still provide a nice downside play.
Volume: 477.214K Avg Volume: 434.818K
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 21.96; Next: $21.12 Volume=600K Target=$17 Stop=$23.05
POSITION: QKK OE - Mar. $25p (-63 delta, no OI) or QKK OX - Mar. $22.50p (-50 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/npsp.html
Play Date: 02/10/2003
POT (Potash--$57.71; -0.19; optionable): Nonmetallic mining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pot.html
STATUS: Put. Tried to move lower the past two sessions but showed a doji Wednesday on low volume. It may give us that bounce up to test the 10 day MVA (59) after all. When that fails that is where we move in.
Volume: 107.7K Avg Volume: 183.227K
BUY POINT: After a bounce up toward 59, $58.74 on the way back down. Volume=175K Target=$55 Stop=$60.05
POSITION: POT RL - June $60p (-52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pot.html
End Part 2 of 3
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us stock market
stock market
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