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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Good moves: CKFR; NSCN
New:
Downside: Setting up well
Play Date: 02/15/2003
JEF (Jeffries Group--$37.26; +0.34; optionable): Investment brokerages
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jef.html
STATUS: Put. Still moving in a 1.5 month downtrend after triple peaks November through January. JEF tanked mid-week and as the market recovered late in the week JEF started to do so as well, but it was tepid and on significantly lighter. There is the 10 day MVA at 37.88, just below some strong price resistance at 38. Looking for a move up toward the 18 day MVA (38.68) if it can make it over 38. After that we will pick it up on the way back down after this weak test higher.
Volume: 190.6K Avg Volume: 183.279K
BUY POINT: After a test of 3860ish, $38.35 on the way back down. Volume=210K Target=$34.35 Stop=$39.28
POSITION: JEF PH - April $40p (-80 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/jef.html
Play Date: 02/15/2003
PRU (Prudential Financial--$30.72; +1.03; optionable): Financial services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pru.html
STATUS: Put. Familiar story. Peaked in January at 34, making a lower high below the June peak at 36. It has since slid down at a 45 degree angle to 29. Wednesday it showed a doji at that opint and it has rallied nicely back, but on declining volume. Friday it cllosed just over the 10 day MVA, and has its sights on the 18 day MVA (31) and possibly toward 31.50 31.50 before running out of steam on this rebound. That is where we will look for it to stall and give us that clear signal it is rolling over, e.g., a reversal and move well off the intraday high or closing with a doji.
Volume: 2.368M Avg Volume: 2.37M
BUY POINT: After a test of 31 to 31.50, $30.88 on the way back down. Volume=2.8M Target=$27.88 Stop=$31.45
POSITION: PRU RZ - June $32.50p (-61 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pru.html
Play Date: 02/15/2003
VIA (Viacom--$37.3; +1.16; optionable): Entertainment media
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/via.html
STATUS: Put. VIA double topped in late 2002 and has been moving in a continuing downtrend. After the last test of the 10 day MVA last week that led to a plunge lower, VIA started up and closed right at the 10 day as volume moved lower on the bounce. We are looking for VIA to move up a bit further on this bounce, up toward the 18 day MVA and price resistance at 38. From there we will look for it to show a topping sign such as reversing off the high or showing a doji heading into the close. That is when we will look to move in.
Volume: 364.6K Avg Volume: 398.37K
BUY POINT: $37.88 Volume=485K Target=$34.55 Stop=$38.45
POSITION: VIA QH - May $40p (-62 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/via.html
Upside:
Play Date: 02/15/2003
BMRN (Biomarin Pharmaceuticals--$10.10; +0.06; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bmrn.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Working through a 13.5 month base, currently moving in a slightly descending handle during February. Volume has dried up in the handle to practically nothing; that is what it should do as it indicates very few sellers as the stock edges lower, shaking out the last nervous holders. Accumulation in the big base is solid at 12 up weeks on rising volume to 5 down weeks on rising volume. Good, solid accumulation, solid money flow.
Volume: 175.139K Avg Volume: 656.315K
BUY POINT: $10.28 Volume=700K Target=$12.35 Stop=$9.56
POSITION: NUR GB - July $10c (59 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bmrn.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Still look good:
ALN; BHE; CKFR; GPN; JPM; NTE; PNRA; POT; SYMC
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
$OEX 02/03 Put 422.57 +8.530 430 413 0 0 424
Current. Rallied up to the 10 day MVA on lower volume. Looking for a stall out again for new positions as well.
ALN 01/18 Test BO 13.23 +0.38 13.41 16.85 478K 450K 12.25
Buy Not Issued.
ALN 11/09 Test BO 13.23 +0.38 7.28 14 478K 200K 11.94
Current. Up off the 10 day MVA on some good volume. One of the leaders that has consolidated and is coming to life.
AMGN 01/22 A Wedge 52.6 +0.82 53.12 62 9.8M 20M 50.25
Current. Moving up nicely after the test of the 18 day MVA, but not exciting anyone with the below average volume.
AMZN 01/09 Test 50 20.06 0 22.72 27.25 6.6M 13M 20.75
Buy Not Issued.
AMZN 10/21 Cup hdl 20.06 0 20.32 24.38 6.6M 10M 20.75
Current. Moving up nicely after the test of the 18 day MVA, but not exciting anyone with the below average volume.
AVCT 02/13 Test BO 26.5 +0.75 26.56 30.45 489K 725K 24.53
Buy Not Hit. Making the move up off the 18 day MVA on solid but below average volume.
BG 01/29 Test BO 26.19 +0.83 26.25 31.45 182K 675K 24.41
Buy Not Hit. Making the bounce off the 50 day MVA.
BHE 02/11 Test BO 34.28 +0.58 35.15 42 558K 500K 32.69
Buy Not Hit. Still looks good and like that volume surge Friday.
BLS 02/05 Put 22.7 +0.39 23.49 21 3.7M 500K 23.74
Current. Tapped the 10 day MVA on the high and fell back as volume remained very tepid.
BMRN 02/15 Test 18 10.1 +0.06 10.28 12.35 175K 700K 9.56
New.
BPRX 02/10 Put 11.81 +0.05 12.64 10 83K 250K 13.48
Buy Not Issued. Tapped the 200 day MVA and did not tank through the 200 day MVA.
CELG 02/04 Put 21.39 +0.4 21.94 19.75 1.3M 1M 22.55
Current. Tapped toward 20 on the low and rebounded on strong volume. May test back toward 22 before falling again.
CELL 02/06 Test BO 9.47 -0.15 10.65 12.75 66K 260K 9.45
Buy Not Hit.
CHS 01/25 Put 18.49 +0.31 17.79 14.51 5.5M 1.2M 18.78
Current. Huge volume spike sent it to the 200 day MVA, but it could go no further.
CKFR 01/28 Cup hdl 19.55 +1.25 20.85 25 2M 2M 18.94
Buy Not Hit. Nice move up off the 50 day MVA on volume.
CTXS 02/08 Put 11.86 +0.24 11.55 9.05 3.1M 450K 12.75
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA on the high and then gave back most of the move as volume remained low.
CVD 12/21 Cup hdl 22.95 -0.45 24.75 29.74 526K 581K 24.25
Current. Still trying to bounce up to the 50 day MVA near 24.
CVD 11/05 Test BO 22.95 -0.45 23.65 28 526K 581K 24.88
Current.
CVH 01/25 Put 25.4 -0.42 27.95 24.25 3.2M 600K 27.35
Current. Sold hard and then rebounded on strong volume. Still in the downtrend and resistance at 26.
DCX 02/03 Put 30.5 +1.55 31.15 26.55 903K 950K 31.35
Current. Jumped over the short term MVA Friday on above average volume after the nice move lower. Announced a recall this weekend, however, on many, many vehicles and that may turn it back.
EAT 02/11 Put 27.6 +0.38 28.7 25.74 1.4M 750K 28.94
Current. Tapped 27 on the low and rebounded on rising volume, but still in the downtrend.
EXPE 11/30 A Wedge 59.75 +0.1 78.25 88 2.2M 3.2M 72.77
Current.
FAST 02/01 Put 31.75 +0.31 32.29 29.15 505K 800K 32.94
Current. Rallied to tap the 10 day MVA on the Friday high as volume remained very low.
FON 02/03 Put 12.3 +0.15 12.42 10 5.5M 3.8M 13.05
Current. Again testing 11.80 on the low and bouncing back as volume moved back above average. FON has not given it up and if it does not do so early this week we will close it.
GPN 01/27 Put 27.9 +0.22 27.55 24.55 178K 175K 28.78
Current. After the tap lower Thursday it managed a small gain toward resistance at 28.
HLTH 02/08 Test BO 9.08 +0.14 9.75 11.35 3.1M 3.1M 8.85
Current. Slight move up off the 50 day MVA keeps it working in the flat consolidation that has formed. Being patient with it.
HLTH 12/12 Cup hdl 9.08 +0.14 8.85 11.35 3.1M 3.1M 8.85
Current.
JEF 02/15 Put 37.26 +0.34 38.35 34.35 191K 210K 39.28
New.
JPM 02/11 Put 21.85 +0.56 21.68 18 8.9M 12M 22.85
Current. Lower volume bounce to test the downtrend.
LM 02/13 Put 48.13 +1.6 47.74 44 544K 500K 48.25
Buy Not Hit. Jumped up more than we wanted and on higher volume, but did tap at the 18 day MVA and slide back some.
MSN 12/21 Test BO 6.39 -0.21 5.92 7.45 99K 150K 4.94
Buy Not Issued.
MSN 12/04 Cup hdl 6.39 -0.21 4.85 6.35 99K 150K 5.94
Current. Testing lower, unable to clear the 18 day MVA on the Friday high. Very, very low volume.
MSN 11/23 Cup hdl 6.39 -0.21 4.15 6.35 99K 150K 5.94
Current.
NPSP 02/04 Put 23.68 +1.32 21.12 17 706K 600K 23.05
Exited.
NSCN 12/22 Pennant 19.41 +1.71 17.24 21.24 1.6M 1.8M 18.25
Current. Very nice bounce up off of the 50 day MVA on another session or strong, above average volume. Very nice.
NTE 02/11 BO 33.41 +0.66 34.25 40.15 44K 200K 31.85
Buy Not Hit. Just needs volume.
OTEX 01/25 BO 27.73 +0.44 28.09 33.94 146K 345K 26.25
Buy Not Issued.
PFCB 02/13 Put 33.32 +1.75 32.45 27.75 961K 700K 33.88
Buy Not Hit. Jumped up to the 200 day MVA. Lower volume so will see if rolls over from here.
PNRA 02/12 Put 27.09 +1.03 27.48 24 1.2M 1.2M 29
Buy Not Issued. Bouncing up, setting up for the next move.
POT 02/10 Put 58.15 -0.89 59.35 55 106K 175K 60.05
Buy Not Hit. Turning back down already.
PRU 02/15 Put 30.72 +1.03 30.88 27.88 2.4M 2.8M 31.45
New.
PRX 02/08 BO 33.88 +0.25 33.11 39.74 303K 435K 30.54
Buy Not Issued.
QCOM 12/21 Test 50 34.7 +0.79 39.15 48 28M 18M 36.41
Buy Not Issued.
QCOM 12/04 Test 18 34.7 +0.79 40.85 50 28M 18M 37
Current. Trying to start the recovery from the news of MSFT trying to develop competing chips.
QCOM 11/07 Test BO 34.7 +0.79 34.78 42 28M 18M 37
Current.
QLGC 11/07 Test BO 34.56 +1.02 41.4 50 7.7M 25M 39.88
QLGC 08/17 CCall 34.56 +1.02 36.48 0 7.7M 12M 37
Current. Nice move Friday, and we will look for QLGC to move up to 37.50 and look at selling the July calls at that point as should be about a 4% per month gain at that point.
SYMC 01/09 Test 50 44.8 +0.08 46.3 51 3.5M 4.1M 43.96
Current. Not bad, testing the 50 day MVA and trying to get started up on rising, average volume.
TARO 02/12 Put 30.41 +0.27 30.55 27 198K 300K 31.81
Current. Bounced some Friday on very low, below average volume.
UPL 10/19 A Wedge 9.58 -0.13 9.68 11.75 114K 345K 9.45
Current. Just cannot get back over 9.75, but it continues in a very nice flat base on low, below average volume.
VAR 12/18 Rv H&S 50.03 -0.26 50.25 58 565K 700K 49.15
Current. Testing the 50 day MVA with a volume jump Friday. Need to see that volume converted to upside action.
VIA 02/15 Put 37.3 +1.16 37.88 34.55 365K 485K 38.45
New.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 17.27 +0.52 19.76 20 7M 8.5M 17.45
Current. Trying to move back up, but needs to clear 18 on some volume to get back up near 20 to pump the options up so we can look at selling them.
WB 01/29 Put 35 +0.78 35.28 32.05 2.7M 3.5M 36.05
Current. Bounced Friday on continued below average volume, but managed to clear the 10 day MVA. May go up to test the 18 day at 35.35.
WFSL 01/28 Put 21.96 +0.06 23.96 21 228K 301K 22.74
Current. Doji at the 10 day MVA and resistance at 22. If it does not start to fall early this week we exit.
ZMH 02/06 DB hdl 41.8 +0.22 42.65 50.88 1.1M 1.6M 41.20
Current. Tried to make the move Friday but reversed back for just a fractional gain as volume moved back above average. Still solid.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock recommendation
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