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stock trading site, stock trading information
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Good moves: AMGN; APPX; ASKJ; GRMN
New Plays:
Downside:
Play Date: 02/18/2003
ESRX (Express Scripts--$50.26; +1.69; optionable): Mail order prescriptions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esrx.html
STATUS: Put. ESRX was trying to form up a base October to January, but it fell out of the pattern this month. It tanked down to the December low, the low of the attempted base, at 46 Friday. It bounced from there, but on lower and lower volume, tapping at the 10 day MVA on the high (50.49) and pulling back slightly. Volume fell to below average levels on the move. ESRX might try another move up toward 51 and then run out of gas for another move toward the recent low, but we will also be watching it from here given its weak tap at the 10 day MVA Tuesday.
Volume: 864.697K Avg Volume: 1.407M
BUY POINT: $49.94 Volume=1.2M Target=$46 Stop=$51.24
POSITION: XTQ QJ - May $50p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/esrx.html
Upside:
Play Date: 02/18/2003
APOL (Apollo Group--$45.69; +0.96; optionable): Education and training
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apol.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. APOL has been a leader, and is putting the finishing touches on a 5-month base that is ready to break to a new high. APOL has done something very interesting as the rest of the market sold: it has held on, avoiding the downtrend and working laterally between 40 and 46. It made a higher low in late January, and it made another one recently as it held the 50 day MVA (43.70). Now we are waiting for the strong volume breakout to push it to a new high and past resistance.
Volume: 1.654M Avg Volume: 1.788M
BUY POINT: $46.25 Volume=22M Target=$52.88 Stop=$43.35
POSITION: OAQ HI - Aug. $45c (58 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/apol.html
Play Date: 02/18/2003
VRTY (Verity--$15.74; +0.27; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vrty.html
STATUS: Trading range. VRTY is moving in a trading range between 14 and 16 the past 5 weeks, working in something of a handle to a cup with handle base that started 13 months ago. It has moved up well off the base, but what we like is the action in this lateral move; as the market sold, VRTY held its ground, working laterally on low, below average volume as money moves into the stock. That tends to build pressure from below, and we are looking for a strong volume breakout of the range to the upside.
Volume: 190.25K Avg Volume: 396.272K
BUY POINT: $16.43 Volume=500K Target=$19.65 Stop=$15.15
POSITION: YQV FC - June $15c (63 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vrty.html
Continued Plays:
Downside:
Play Date: 02/15/2003
EV (Eaton Vance--$27.2; +0.67; optionable): Asset management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ev.html
STATUS: Put. Tapped the 18 day MVA on the Tuesday high (27.29) on continued shrinking volume on the move off the low. Has run higher back up to the 18 day MVA, and this is where we are looking for it roll over here.
Volume: 187.1K Avg Volume: 191.181K
BUY POINT: Gave the test of the 18 day MVA, and now looking for a move through $27.15. Volume=225K Target=$24.15 Stop=$28.12
POSITION: EV QF - May $30p (-79 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ev.html
Play Date: 02/15/2003
JEF (Jeffries Group--$38.41; +1.15; optionable): Investment brokerages
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jef.html
STATUS: Put. JEF is making the move we were looking for, a lower volume move up to test the 18 day MVA (38.65). Indeed, volume was below average on the move Tuesday. We are looking for it to try one more run at the 18 day MVA and then fail and resume its 1.5 month downtrend.
Volume: 159.3K Avg Volume: 184.272K
BUY POINT: After a test of 38.60ish again, $38.35 on the way back down. Volume=210K Target=$34.35 Stop=$39.28
POSITION: JEF PH - April $40p (-80 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jef.html
Upside:
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 02/15/2003
NATI (National Instruments--$33.99; +0.77; optionable): Computer peripherals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nati.html
STATUS: Pennant. Making a solid, higher volume move, but could not hold the buy point. Still looks solid in its 3-month pattern as part of a larger 12 month base. Nice accumulation at 9 up weeks on rising volume to just 4 down weeks on rising volume. Money flow is excellent and moving up ahead of the stock price.
Volume: 515.723K Avg Volume: 250.681K
BUY POINT: $34.05 Volume=425K Target=$39 Stop=$31.67
POSITION: SJQ FF - June $30c (71 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nati.html
Play Date: 01/10/2003
MDCO (The Medicines Company--$17.93; +1; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mdco.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. Up off the 18 day MVA on some stronger, above average volume Tuesday. Right at the next buy point and looking solid.
Volume: 830.57K Avg Volume: 692.772K
BUY POINT: New: 18.08 (orig. $17.35) Volume=800K Target=$20.85 Stop=$16.15
POSITION: MQL DV - April $12.50c (64 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mdco.html
Downside:
Play Date: 02/13/2003
EXC (Exelon--$49.05; +1.01; optionable): Utilities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/exc.html
STATUS: Put. EXC made that test toward 49, hitting 49.50 on the intraday high before turning lower to close right at the 10 day MVA. Volume was up, and though still below average, we are going to look for that rollover given the close well off the intraday high. We want to see that volume continue to rise as the stock falls, though we would not be surprised to see it try one more shot over 50 before rolling over.
Volume: 1.355M Avg Volume: 1.279M
BUY POINT: 48.55. If it makes it to the 200 day MVA at 50, then $49.65. Volume=1.5M Target=$45.55 Stop=$50.85
POSITION: EXC PJ - April $50p (-56 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/exc.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING PLAYS:
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
$OEX 02/03 Put 431.48 +8.91 430 413 0 0 434
Current. Rallied up over the 18 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Looking for it to fail in this range for some more positions for the downside.
AFFX 02/08 Cup hdl 25.19 -0.26 26.55 30.55 950K 1.5M 24.69
Buy Not Issued.
AMGN 01/22 A Wedge 53.62 +1.02 53.12 62 8.9M 20M 50.25
Current.
APOL 02/18 A Wedge 45.69 +0.96 46.25 52.88 1.7M 22M 43.35
New.
APPX 01/25 Test BO 24.15 +1.14 25.4 30 483K 770K 23.32
Current.
ASKJ 12/26 Cup hdl 6.47 +0.27 2.89 7 912K 305K 5.05
Current.
ATRS 02/01 Test 50 14.49 +0.49 15.04 18 31K 218K 13.99
Buy Not Hit.
AVO 12/16 A Wedge 12.44 -0.1 12.06 14.45 51K 210K 11.94
Current.
BEN 02/18 Put 32.95 +0.61 32.74 30 594K 600K 33.75
New.
BGEN 02/01 Put 38.88 +1.24 37.65 34 2.1M 3.5M 38.65
Buy Not Issued.
BSC 02/15 Put 61.14 +0.78 60.75 56.75 958K 1.1M 62
Buy Not Hit.
BSTE 02/08 Put 32.84 +0.14 33.74 30.04 155K 500K 34.88
Current.
CGNX 02/04 DB hdl 23 +0.38 22.94 26.88 307K 525K 21.12
Buy Not Issued.
CHIR 02/08 Put 36.79 +0.48 36.52 33.52 1.9M 2M 37.36
Current.
CKFR 01/28 Cup hdl 19.53 -0.01 20.85 25 1.3M 2M 18.94
Buy Not Hit.
CTXS 02/08 Put 12.51 +0.65 11.55 9.05 2.8M 450K 12.75
Current.
CVD 12/21 Cup hdl 22.94 -0.01 24.75 29.74 632K 581K 24.25
Current.
CVD 11/05 Test BO 22.94 -0.01 23.65 28 632K 581K 24.88
Current.
CVH 01/25 Put 26.82 +1.42 27.95 24.25 1.1M 600K 27.35
Current.
DCX 02/03 Put 30.83 +0.33 31.15 26.55 511K 950K 31.35
Current.
ESRX 02/18 Put 50.26 +1.69 49.94 46 865K 1.2M 51.24
New.
EV 02/15 Put 27.2 +0.67 27.15 24.15 187K 225K 28.12
Buy Not Hit.
EXC 02/13 Put 49.05 +1.01 49.65 45.55 1.4M 1.5M 50.85
Buy Not Hit.
FAST 02/01 Put 32.63 +0.88 32.29 29.15 753K 800K 32.94
Current.
FON 02/03 Put 12.68 +0.38 12.42 10 2M 3.8M 13.05
Current.
GPN 01/27 Put 28.34 +0.44 27.55 24.55 56K 175K 28.78
Current.
GRMN 11/06 Cup hdl 33.02 +2.15 22.34 34 1.1M 198K 28.35
Current.
JEF 02/15 Put 38.41 +1.15 38.35 34.35 159K 210K 39.28
Buy Not Hit.
JPM 02/11 Put 22.5 +0.65 21.68 18 9.2M 12M 22.85
Current.
LM 02/13 Put 49.6 +1.47 47.74 44 480K 500K 48.25
Buy Not Hit.
MDCO 01/10 Cup hdl 17.93 +1 17.35 20.85 831K 800K 16.15
Current.
MI 02/11 Put 26.76 +0.36 25.87 23.35 312K 350K 26.85
Buy Not Issued.
MMC 01/30 Put 41.69 +0.42 43.45 38 1.3M 2M 42.25
Current.
MSN 12/21 Test BO 6.56 +0.17 5.92 7.45 124K 150K 4.94
Buy Not Issued.
MSN 12/04 Cup hdl 6.56 +0.17 4.85 6.35 124K 150K 5.94
Current.
MSN 11/23 Cup hdl 6.56 +0.17 4.15 6.35 124K 150K 5.94
Current.
NATI 02/15 Test 50 33.99 +0.77 34.05 39 516K 425K 31.67
Buy Not Issued.
NFLX 01/25 A Wedge 14.66 +0.42 13.28 15.88 448K 503K 12.15
Buy Not Issued.
NSCN 12/22 Pennant 19.95 +0.54 17.24 21.24 1.5M 1.8M 18.25
Current.
NSM 01/25 Put 14.91 +0.87 13.96 11.95 3M 2.8M 14.25
Current.
PNRA 02/12 Put 26.5 -0.58 27.48 24 782K 1.2M 29
Buy Not Issued.
POT 02/10 Put 57.8 -0.35 59.35 55 127K 175K 60.05
Buy Not Hit.
PRX 02/08 BO 34.8 +0.92 33.11 39.74 322K 435K 30.54
Buy Not Issued.
QCOM 12/21 Test 50 35.39 +0.69 39.15 48 15M 18M 36.41
Buy Not Issued.
QCOM 12/04 Test 18 35.39 +0.69 40.85 50 15M 18M 37
Current.
QCOM 11/07 Test BO 35.39 +0.69 34.78 42 15M 18M 37
Current.
QLGC 11/07 Test BO 35.77 +1.21 41.4 50 7.6M 25M 39.88
ROST 02/05 Put 36.69 +0.41 36.75 33.45 1.6M 1.7M 37.88
Current.
SBUX 02/15 Test 18 22.91 +0.39 22.74 25 4.6M 4.5M 21.75
Buy Not Issued.
UCBH 01/28 Put 42.96 +0.05 42.45 40 127K 1.7M 43.25
Exited.
VRTY 02/18 Cup hdl 15.74 +0.27 16.43 19.65 190K 500K 15.15
New.
WB 01/29 Put 35.65 +0.65 35.28 32.05 2.3M 3.5M 36.05
Current.
WFSL 01/28 Put 22.3 +0.34 23.96 21 227K 301K 22.74
Exited.
YHOO 12/11 Test 50 19.49 +0.59 17.32 22.75 8.6M 20M 17.74
Current.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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