|
|
trend trading stock, trading system
Begin Part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good moves: CGX; DCX; EAT
Best Plays:
1) CCMP: Heading lower on strong volume.
2) FDS: Turned over at the 18 day MVA on stronger volume.
3) BMC: Very nice pattern.
4) CGNX: Very nice pattern has formed and getting ready.
5) EV: Starting lower on rising volume.
6) JEF: Rolling over at the 18 day MVA on rising volume.
7) MI: Ditto.
New Plays:
Downside:
Play Date: 02/19/2003
CCMP (Cabot Microelectronics--$42.77; -2.87; optionable): Special chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ccmp.html
STATUS: Put. Peaked in late November and started the current downtrend. CCMP tested higher in mid-January and then resumed the trend. It is now doing the same thing, rising Friday and Tuesday on some rising above average volume, but after tapping the 50 day MVA on the Tuesday high (46.75) it rolled over on much stronger volume Wednesday. Looking to jump on board here as its downward moves in the trend can easily cover $10.
Volume: 1.601M Avg Volume: 978.136K
BUY POINT: $42.45 Volume=1.2M Target=$37.12 Stop=$44.45
POSITION: UKR PI - Apr. $45p (-59 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ccmp.html
Play Date: 02/19/2003
FDS (Factset Research--$25.68; -0.21; optionable): Information and delivery service software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fds.html
STATUS: Put. FDS is sliding lower in a downtrend that started at the beginning of December. It tested higher in mid-January and failed, forming the down trendline. It slide down the short term MVA, and after hitting 24 last week it bounced up to test the 18 day MVA (26.17) Tuesday and then rolled over Wednesday on rising, above average volume. It tried to come back to hold the 10 day MVA on the close, but FDS looks ready to continue its downtrend.
Volume: 318K Avg Volume: 264.136K
BUY POINT: $25.45 Volume=300K Target=$22.12 Stop=$26.45
POSITION: FDS RE - June $25p (-40 delta) or FDS RF - June $30 p (-74 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/fds.html
Play Date: 02/19/2003
SNPS (Synopsis--$39.75; +0.19; optionable): System software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/snps.html
STATUS: Put. SNPS has run up to its 50 day MVA (40.82), showing a tight doji on the candlestick chart Wednesday on rising, average volume. This move followed a steady downtrend below the short term MVA, a test higher in the downtrend. Volume on the move up was not great, never topping average. After hours SNPS reported earnings and was all over the map, but mainly lower. We are looking for SNPS to turn back lower on the earnings report and resuming its downtrend as the doji indicates.
Volume: 1.412M Avg Volume: 1.404M
BUY POINT: $39.38 Volume=1.5M Target=$35.68 Stop=$40.65
POSITION: YPQ RH - June $40p (-49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/snps.html
Upside:
Play Date: 02/19/2003
BMC (BMC Software--$18.94; -0.13; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bmc.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. BMC is in a large base totaling 13 months. The last 1.5 months can be described as the handle of that base or another short cup with handle all its own. Accumulation in the big base is 12 up weeks on rising volume to 8 down weeks on rising volume; solid enough to support a move higher. BMC has rallied from support near 17, stalling right at the early January high. It shot up to that level Tuesday on a strong volume surge, and then took a breather Wednesday on very low volume. Excellent money flow and good accumulation leading up to this move. It may move laterally for another session or two and then give the breakout, but we want to be ready.
Volume: 1.252M Avg Volume: 1.832M
BUY POINT: $19.29 Volume=2.5M Target=$23.15 Stop=$17.94
POSITION: BMC HW - Aug. $17.50c (69 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bmc.html
Play Date: 02/19/2003
STK (Storage Technology--$23.84; -0.65; optionable): Data storage devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stk.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. STK is moving through a 12 month base, working on the handle the past month on lower, below average volume. Friday and Tuesday STK moved up sharply on rising, above average volume. Positive accumulation in the big base, and good price/volume action in the current 5-week lateral move and good money flow on top of that. Just waiting for a strong volume breakout.
Volume: 443.6K Avg Volume: 794.454K
BUY POINT: $24.65 Volume=1M Target=$28.45 Stop=$23.05
POSITION: STK FX - June $22.50c (65 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/stk.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 02/04/2003
CGNX (Cognex--$22.48; -0.52; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cgnx.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. CGNX took a breather the last 2 sessions, pulling back Wednesday on lower, below average volume. It is making a series of higher lows, and this pullback on lower volume is looking really nice. Good accumulation at 3 accumulation weeks to 1 distribution week, and in its larger base that started back in March it is still solid at 8 accumulation weeks to 2 distribution weeks.
Volume: 227.761K Avg Volume: 350.318K
BUY POINT: $22.94 Volume=525K Target=$26.88 Stop=$21.12
POSITION: QCG ED - May $20c (65 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cgnx.html
Play Date: 01/28/2003
CKFR (Checkfree--$19.99; +0.46; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ckfr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. CKFR has moved right up to the breakout point at 20 on some very solid volume. It has made a series of higher lows on the 50 day MVA, and it looks to be building pressure for the upside breakout.
Volume: 1.298M Avg Volume: 1.273M
BUY POINT: $20.85 Volume=2M Target=$25 Stop=$18.94
POSITION: FCQ EW - May $17.50c (70 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ckfr.html
Play Date: 01/10/2003
MDCO (The Medicines Company--$17.5; -0.43; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mdco.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. MDCO has rallied off the 50 day MVA just over 16 and is now trading between 17 and 18 on solid volume at it tries to build for the breakout.
Volume: 780.609K Avg Volume: 684.136K
BUY POINT: New: 18.08 (orig. $17.35) Volume=800K Target=$20.85 Stop=$16.15
POSITION: MQL DV - April $12.50c (64 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mdco.html
Play Date: 02/15/2003
NATI (National Instruments--$33.93; -0.06; optionable): Computer peripherals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nati.html
STATUS: Pennant. Very good volume the past four sessions as NATI tries to clear resistance just over 34. Money flow is solid as NATI tries to brace for a breakout of the 3-month pattern that is part of a larger 12 month base. Very nice accumulation at 9 up weeks on rising volume to just 4 down weeks on rising volume. Money flow is excellent and moving up ahead of the stock price.
Volume: 521.793K Avg Volume: 249.5K
BUY POINT: $34.05 Volume=425K Target=$39 Stop=$31.67
POSITION: SJQ FF - June $30c (71 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nati.html
Play Date: 02/15/2003
SBUX (Starbucks--$22.83; -0.08; optionable): Fancy coffee
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sbux.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. A solid move Tuesday, and then SBUX took a day off Wednesday, holding the move on lower, below average volume. Tested 22.50 on the low and recovered. Looks ready to continue the move.
Volume: 3.095M Avg Volume: 3.447M
BUY POINT: New: $23.04 (orig. $22.74) Volume=4.5M Target=$25 Stop=$21.75
POSITION: SQX GD - July $20c (80 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sbux.html
Downside:
Play Date: 02/18/2003
BEN (Franklin Resources--$32.8; -0.15; optionable): Asset Management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/ben.html
STATUS: Put. Tapped at the 18 day MVA again on the high (32.99) and then tested the 10 day MVA on the low (32.55). It managed to rebound in the last hour, but volume was even lower and still below average. Looking for the downtrend to continue after this test higher.
Volume: 427.5K Avg Volume: 604.636K
BUY POINT: $32.74 Volume=600K Target=$30 Stop=$33.75
POSITION: BEN PG - Apr. $35p (-77 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ben.html
Play Date: 02/08/2003
CHIR (Chiron--$36.66; -0.13; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chir.html
STATUS: Put. CHIR is still trying to break over the 18 day MVA at 37, stalling out Wednesday after a good move on some average volume Tuesday. Looking for CHIR to continue its downtrend, but it will need a lot more downside volume.
Volume: 1.078M Avg Volume: 1.658M
BUY POINT: $36.52 Volume=2M Target=$33.52 Stop=$37.36
POSITION: CIQ PU - April $37.50p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/chir.html
Play Date: 02/18/2003
ESRX (Express Scripts--$49.75; -0.51; optionable): Mail order prescriptions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esrx.html
STATUS: Put. ESRX continued to make the bounce back up after falling below the 200 day MVA just over 51, ESRX made another tap at that level on the Tuesday high (50.97) and then rolled back down. Volume was still very light, but this looks like a classic test and rollover.
Volume: 696.555K Avg Volume: 1.373M
BUY POINT: $49.94 Volume=1.2M Target=$46 Stop=$51.24
POSITION: XTQ QJ - May $50p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/esrx.html
Play Date: 02/15/2003
EV (Eaton Vance--$26.65; -0.55; optionable): Asset management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ev.html
STATUS: Put. After taping the 18 day MVA on the Tuesday high, EV started rolling down Wednesday on rising, above average volume. It managed to recover off the low (26.32) on the close, but it looks ready to fall further here as the volume ramped up after the test of resistance.
Volume: 231.9K Avg Volume: 187.409K
BUY POINT: New: $26.59Volume=225K Target=$24.15 Stop=$28.12
POSITION: EV QF - May $30p (-79 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ev.html
Play Date: 02/13/2003
EXC (Exelon--$49.42; +0.37; optionable): Utilities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/exc.html
STATUS: Put. Rallied a bit higher on lower volume, stalling out just below the 200 day at 50 (18 day is at 49.78), right at the down trendline. The lower volume test of the resistance looks like the stock is ready to turn back down in the trend.
Volume: 914.1K Avg Volume: 1.271M
BUY POINT: 48.94. Volume=1.5M Target=$45.55 Stop=$50.85
POSITION: EXC PJ - April $50p (-56 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/exc.html
Play Date: 02/15/2003
JEF (Jeffries Group--$37.86; -0.55; optionable): Investment brokerages
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jef.html
STATUS: Put. Tapped the 18 day MVA on the high (38.41) and turned down on a solid volume rise, though still below average. It managed to hold at the 10 day MVA on the close, but this looks just like a test higher in the downtrend before resuming the fall.
Volume: 181.9K Avg Volume: 181.863K
BUY POINT: New: $37.75 (orig. $38.35). Volume=210K Target=$34.35 Stop=$39.28
POSITION: JEF PH - April $40p (-80 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jef.html
Play Date: 02/11/2003
JPM (JP Morgan--$22.5; 0; optionable): Money bank
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jpm.html
STATUS: Put. After tapping the 18 day MVA on the Tuesday high 22.86) JPM showed a doji Wednesday on the 10 day MVA on lower volume. This is a lower volume test higher in the downtrend, but we want to see volume pick up on the way back down as it cuts through the 10 day MVA (22.25).
Volume: 8.086M Avg Volume: 9.985M
BUY POINT: $21.74 Volume=12M Target=$18 Stop=$22.85
POSITION: JPM OE - Mar. $25p (-71 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jpm.html
Play Date: 02/11/2003
MI (Marshall & Ilsley--$26.51; -0.25; optionable): Regional bank
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mi.html
STATUS: Put. Tried to run over the 18 day MVA (26.72) Wednesday, but turned lower as volume started higher. Still below average, but the strongest volume in a week. It managed to return to close at the 10 day MVA, but we like the higher volume on the selling.
Volume: 356.7K Avg Volume: 357.727K
BUY POINT: $25.87 Volume=350K Target=$23.35 Stop=$26.85
POSITION: MI OF - Mar. 30p (-96 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mi.html
End Part 2 of 3
|
trend trading stock
trading system
|
