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yahoo stock, trading system
Begin Part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information.
Best Plays: RESP made its breakout move Friday and looks ready for more upside. Looking at some good patterns and trading plays this weekend (CIEN in the latter category), and the puts may take a day or more to set up if the market rallies.
Best Plays:
1) TERN: A strong volume move.
2) SRV: Ready to break out.
3) TTWO: Tested the breakout and moving up.
4) VANS: Trying for a new high.
5) TXN: Getting ready to roll back up.
6) RESP: Still a buy.
7) ACS: Watching this strong volume for continued upside.
8) CIEN: A potential upside play for the short term.
New Plays:
A couple of small stocks:
TERN (Terayon--$4.55; +0.74; optionable (TUN)): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tern.html
STATUS: The stock is deep in a 13-month base but showed signs of life Friday on a strong move over the 18 day MVA (4.30) as the telecom sector rallied back late in the day. On the momentum, we are looking for a possible move up to the $6 level (50 day MVA) in a market rally. Potential resistance at the 5.50 level so look for continued strong volume on the move.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Up from here on continued strong volume. Stop loss: 4.25.
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/tern.html
SRV (Service Corp--$4.75; +0.41; no options): Diversified Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/srv.html
STATUS: A stock that formed a second handle to an 11-month base, then surged up from the 50 day MVA (3.67) on renewed strong volume, reaching Friday 2.3 million (avg. 1 million). On a breakout over the recent high of 4.84, we will look at a quick move up to 6-6.25. Money flow is huge into this stock, and relative strength broke out.
BUY POINT: Up from here on continued strong volume.
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/srv.html
TTWO (Take-Two--$14.25; +0.75; optionable (TUO)): Technical & System Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p//ttwo.html
STATUS: Trying for a breakout move after testing its recent breakout from a short cup with handle. The cup formed in the lower right side of the stock's 7-month base (previous high 16.50), and the breakout was on strong volume that, after pulling back with price in the test, rose again by Friday to 858,400 (avg.563,000). Breakout high is 14.63; looking for a move over that on increasing volume. The stock shows strong money flow and buying, and relative strength broke out ahead of price, a bullish sign. Initial target: $16-17.
BUY POINT: 14.75, on volume of 760,000 or better. Stop loss: 14.26-14.51.
POSITION: Stock and/or June $10 or $12.50 calls to buy (TUO FB or FV).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ttwo.html
VANS (Vans--$22.56; +0.68; optionable (VQG)): Consumer Non-durables: Footwear
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vans.html
STATUS: After testing the 50 day MVA (currently at 20.36) after pulling off a February high of 23.13, VANS tried to beat that high several days ago but couldn't make the move stick, and dropped back to move somewhat laterally along the 10 day MVA (21.85) last week on overall decreasing volume. That changed Friday on a pop up from the support, volume leaping just over the average (216,000; avg. 200,000). Price/volume action was great all week, and we look for a move over resistance at 23.25 from here. Excellent money flow and buying. Initial target on a move over the high: $26-27.
BUY POINT: 23.38, on volume of 270,000 or better. Stop loss: 22.88-23.13.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $20 calls to buy (VQG GD; 53 open interests (illiquid)).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/vans.html
A Roller:
TXN (Texas Instruments--$30.98; -0.44; optionable (TXN)): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/txn.html
STATUS: Slowing down its recent drop below the 50 day and short term moving averages. TXN tapped a low of 30.14, a level of likely support, given the continued lower volume Friday (12 million; avg. 12.3 million). Showing 2 consecutive dojis, the stock looks ready to roll back up to the 35 range, or to the 50 day MVA (36.66). On its last run up from this support level, TXN ran to a March high of 39.58, but couldn't hold it, which is why we put our higher target at the 50 day MVA.
BUY POINT: On a roll up from here on rising volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $30 calls to buy (TXN GF).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/txn.html
Updated:
RESP (Respironics--$30.50; +1.75; optionable (SBU)): Health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/resp.html
STATUS: Began the breakout move as the stock beat our buy point of 30.01, and remains a buy from here. Volume was up and over average at 410,200 (avg. 209,000).
Initial target on a breakout: $33-35.
BUY POINT: Up to 31.51 on continued strong volume. Stop loss: 30-30.25.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $25 calls to buy (SBU GE, 55 open interests).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/resp.html
Looking for an upside move that can set up a potential downside play: The following can keep moving up from or over resistance levels, or offer plays back down from those levels(or higher ones) if the rally fades.
OEX (Standard & Poors 100--$591.63; +6.73; optionable (OEB, OEY)):
STATUS: Looks ready for more upside if the market can rally, after moving up on stronger volume (1.3 million; avg. 1.2 million). The index is sitting on its 10 day MVA (591.45), and we can get a move up to the 18 day MVA (601.35), upside target. That resistance has turned the index back down since early February, so we will look for that move once the index hits it, if it does.
BUY POINT: Upside: On a move up from here on continued rising volume, watching for resistance at 601. Downside: On a move back down from 601 in market selling.
POSITION: Upside: May $580 calls to buy (OEB EP). Delta unavailable at the time of this writing; please check with your broker. Put: From 601, April $605 puts to buy (OEY PA)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/oex.html
THE PORTFOLIOS: Each report, we look at these to see which is in a buy position. We don't cover them all each time, just the ones that are looking as if they are ready to pick up a few shares.
THE LEADERS: Some of the new leaders have fallen under the pressure of the bear market and can no longer be considered top picks for such investments (ACS, LLL, NATI, ESRX). We continue to look to stocks like CPN as the new leaders, as they are holding up well. With this in mind, we must reiterate that while we are looking for any of these stocks to once again yield long-term investments when the markets turns, for now the plays for moves up in such stocks should only be considered short-term. We must focus on the stocks that are performing best in a down market as they tend to help lead when the market turns back up.
New Leaders: CPN, SGR (ESRX, NATI, LLL, ACS)
Previous Leaders: ADBE, AMCC, ARBA, BEAS, BRCD, CIEN, EMC, EXTR, GLW, JNPR, NEWP, NTAP, PMCS, SCMR, SEBL, VRSN, VRTS
ACS (Affiliated Computer--$64.90; +2.53; optionable (ACS)): Computer Software http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acs.html
STATUS: Awakened from its recent tank below the 50 day MVA (62), the stock made a breakout move from a double-bottom-type pattern formed since mid-February. Volume shot to 877,100 (avg. 490,490) presumably on the company's earnings report (not available at the time of this writing), and the stock ran to a high of 66.08 before closing lower. Currently just under resistance (65), we will see if the stock breaks that for a move over the intraday high. February high is 68.59.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 65 on continued strong volume. Stop loss: 64.50-64.75. New high: Over 69, on continued strong volume. Stop loss: 68.50-68.75.
POSITION: Aggressive: Stock and/or July $60 calls to buy (ACS GL). New high: Stock and/or July $65 calls to buy (ACS GM).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/acs.html
Previous Leaders:
CIEN (Ciena--$41.75; +0.56; optionable (EUQ)): Telecommunications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cien.html
STATUS: After a 3-day drop from resistance at the 10 day MVA (50), CIEN halted the move and on huge volume turned up from a low of 36.50. It wasn't much of a move on that kind of volume (48.9 million; avg. 19.4 million), but if the market manages a rally, the stock can move back up to the 10 day MVA (50.06) for a quick upside play.
BUY POINT: On a move up from here on continued strong volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $35 calls to buy (EUQ GG).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cien.html
UP & COMERS PORTFOLIOS: We have added some new stocks to this portfolio: LNCR, BJ, ANF, LOW, HI and THQI. We like the patterns and their earnings numbers, and they are holding up in this market. The currently existing members (EXDS, TQNT, BVSN, SANM, PKI and GMST) are on a current watchlist we will continue to monitor for recovery when the market finally emerges from the bear market.
BJ (Bj's Wholesale Club--$47.85; +0.71; optionable (BJ)): Retail: Discount Stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/bj.html
STATUS: BJ is getting ready to break to a new high. The stock closed just under the previous closing high of 48 (March 9). Volume was higher (603.600; avg. 686,181), so look for that to keep pushing to break the stock over the resistance. On a pullback for further consolidation, support is likely at the 10 day MVA (46.45), or the 18 day MVA (46.11). Initial target for a move over 48: $53-55.
BUY POINT: Over 48, on volume of 815,000 or better. Stop loss: 47.50-47.75.
POSITION: Stock and/or June $45 calls to buy (BJ FI).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/bj.html
LOW (Lowe's--$58.45; -0.20; optionable (LOW)): Retail: Home Stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/low.html
STATUS: LOW used most of last week to test the 50 day MVA (currently at 55.73), opening each day below 57 until Friday, when it opened at 59. The stock pulled back to close just under its 18 day MVA (58.56) on lower volume (3.3 million; avg. 3.4 million), matching a price from early March, so that may support the stock for a move back up from here. Price/volume action was good throughout the week. Looks ready to make a move up if it can get a foothold here (or in the 57.50 range).
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 63.50 on volume of 4.5 million or better.
POSITION: Aggressive: Stock and/or July $50 calls to buy (LOW GJ).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/low.html
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: BRCM, CHKP, CSCO, EMLX, IDTI, INTC, JDSU, MVSN, NT, PWER, SUNW, VTSS
No reports on these stocks this weekend.
PUT PLAYS: We are looking at stocks that are ready to move up from here, then hit resistance for a turn back down in market selling, so the move may not be ready for a day or so. As always, keep reasonable loss cutting rules in place, be ready to close positions quickly if necessary, and make sure you see the downside move, along with the market going down as well, and then enter.
Continued Puts: Let them set up and make the moves as described. Don't jump the gun, just be patient and let them come to you.
EBAY (Ebay Inc--$36.19; +2.06; optionable (QXB)):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ebay.html
STATUS: Moved back up to a high of 38.25 on stronger volume (4.68 million; avg. 5.1 million), but pulled back down to close just under resistance (10 day MVA, 36.29). On a failure to break back over that, we will continue to look for a move down in the head and shoulders pattern (currently in the right shoulder). The aggressive can look at a retreat from here on continued strong volume, with the safer entry point below 30 (lower support in the pattern in the left shoulder) in market selling.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: On a move down on continued rising volume. Watch the 31 range if volume is light on the move down. Safer: Below 30 on above average and rising volume.
POSITION: Aggressive: May $45 puts to buy (QXB QJ).
NEWP (Newport--$29.26; -0.14; optionable (NZZ)): Scientific & Technical Instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/newp.html
STATUS: The stock showed a tight doji near its high (31.50) after a 3-day drop that gave last week's good put play. The doji and lower volume (3 million; avg. 3.6 million), suggest a move back up in the event of a market rally. On that move, look for resistance at the 10 day or 18 day MVAs, from where the stock can retreat. The 18 day MVA forced that action the last time the stock tried to break over it.
BUY POINT: On a move back down from the 10 day (33.98) or 18 day (37.27) MVAs, on stronger volume as the market sells back down.
POSITION: May $50 puts to buy (NZZ QJ).
VRTS (Veritas--$46.24; +3.20; optionable (VIV)): Computer Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vrts.html
STATUS: Moved up to a high of 49.15 but pulled off of that on the lower volume (average, at 15.3 million). In a market rally, the stock can move back up to test that resistance (10 day MVA), but we expect a move back down from there, and will look at puts down to the 43 level. If the stock rallies to the 18 day MVA (54.52), we will look for a move down from there.
BUY POINT: On a move back down from a retest of the 10 day MVA (50.68) or 18 day MVA (54.52) in market selling, May $60 puts to buy (VIV QL).
LH (Laboratory Cp Am Hldgs--$120.25; +1.95; optionable (LH)): Health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lh.html
STATUS: Moved up and closed just under the 10 day MVA (120.44) as volume rose slightly but remained below average (358,700; avg. 432,272). If the stock pops over the 10 day MVA, we will look for resistance at the 200 day MVA (124.70) to turn it back down for a potential put play in some market selling. We will also watch for a move down from here on a failure to break the 10 day. Initial target: 110.
BUY POINT: On a move back down from here or from the 125 range (200 day), in a selling market, May $130 puts to buy (LH QF).
DJX (1/100 Dj Indu--$98.79; +0.80; optionable (DJV)):
STATUS: Moved up from the doji that was just under the 10 day MVA, popping the resistance on higher volume (1.28 million; avg. 1.2 million). We are looking for a continued move, but a halt at the 18 day MVA (99.54) and possible move back down from there. In market selling, we'll look at a target of 94 or lower, the March low at 91, for another potential put play.
BUY POINT: On a move down from 99-100 stronger selling volume, May $104 puts to buy (DJV QZ).
Good Investing!
Jon Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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yahoo stock
trading system
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