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Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Good moves: GRMN; ROST
New Plays:
Downside:
Play Date: 02/20/2003
AIG (American Intl. Group--$49.76; -0.42; optionable): P&C Insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aig.html
STATUS: Put. Insurance carriers have been in some strong downtrends, AIG no exception. The past two weeks AIG rallied up in the downtrend, testing toward the 18 day MVA (51.33) as have many stocks. It did not reach that point on its rebound, sliding lower the past two sessions to hold the 10 day MVA on the Thursday close. Volume fell back below average as it did fall back, indicating the selling has not been intense on the pullback. What we want to see is a strong move lower and some good early volume to enter the downside play.
Volume: 4.463M Avg Volume: 6.676M
BUY POINT: $49.48 Volume=6M Target=$46 Stop=$51.25
POSITION: AIG QJ - May $50p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/aig.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 02/19/2003
BMC (BMC Software--$18.77; -0.17; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bmc.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. BMC spent Thursday moving laterally and slightly lower on continued below average volume. This is the action we anticipated, and it may take another day of this quiet trade before it is ready to make the break higher. No problem.
Volume: 1.264M Avg Volume: 1.82M
BUY POINT: $19.29 Volume=2.5M Target=$23.15 Stop=$17.94
POSITION: BMC HW - Aug. $17.50c (69 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bmc.html
Play Date: 02/04/2003
CGNX (Cognex--$21.96; -0.52; optionable): Scientific & Technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cgnx.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. CGNX is still working in the pattern, tapping the 18 day MVA on the Thursday low (21.52) and rebounding to close at the 10 day MVA. If it holds here it will make another higher low in the pattern as it continues to build pressure from below for the breakout. A very nice pattern and we are waiting for the breakout move.
Volume: 300.824K Avg Volume: 350.863K
BUY POINT: $22.94 Volume=525K Target=$26.88 Stop=$21.12
POSITION: QCG ED - May $20c (65 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cgnx.html
Play Date: 02/19/2003
STK (Storage Technology--$23.8; -0.04; optionable): Data storage devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stk.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still forming the nice handle (a cup with handle withing a handle), testing back to the 10 day MVA on the Thursday low (23.39) and rebounding. Volume was still below average in an orderly pullback. Still looks very solid, looking for a big voluem breakout.
Volume: 527.4K Avg Volume: 794.772K
BUY POINT: $24.65 Volume=1M Target=$28.45 Stop=$23.05
POSITION: STK FX - June $22.50c (65 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/stk.html
Downside:
Play Date: 02/18/2003
ESRX (Express Scripts--$50.09; +0.34; optionable): Mail order prescriptions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esrx.html
STATUS: Put. Tapped at the 10 day MVA again on the high (50.48) and 48.89 on the low in a rather wild trading session. Volume was lower as ESRX recovered to close slightly positive. Looking for another test of 50.50 and then a roll back down on stronger volume.
Volume: 803.256K Avg Volume: 1.366M
BUY POINT: $49.94 Volume=1.2M Target=$46 Stop=$51.24
POSITION: XTQ QJ - May $50p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/esrx.html
Play Date: 02/19/2003
FDS (Factset Research--$25.6; -0.08; optionable): Information and delivery service software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fds.html
STATUS: Put. A doji right at the 10 day MVA (25.70) after FDS tapped at the 18 day MVA on the high the prior two sessions. Right at the down trendline, we are watching for FDS to continue the downtrend with a stronger break lower.
Volume: 173.7K Avg Volume: 265.636K
BUY POINT: $25.45 Volume=300K Target=$22.12 Stop=$26.45
POSITION: FDS RE - June $25p (-40 delta) or FDS RF - June $30 p (-74 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/fds.html
Play Date: 02/11/2003
JPM (JP Morgan--$22.69; +0.19; optionable): Money bank
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jpm.html
STATUS: Put. Struggling at the 18 day MVA, tapping that level on the high (22.80) on lower, below average volume. This is a higher test in the dowtnrend, and we are looking for it to turn back down here.
Volume: 7.152M Avg Volume: 9.956M
BUY POINT: $21.74 Volume=12M Target=$18 Stop=$22.85
POSITION: JPM OE - Mar. $25p (-71 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jpm.html
Play Date: 02/11/2003
MI (Marshall & Ilsley--$26.26; -0.25; optionable): Regional bank
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mi.html
STATUS: Put. MI rallied up to the 18 day MVA (26.70) and has rolled over, falling through the 10 day MVA Thursday. Volume was lower, and we want to see it pick up again on further selling to enter new positions.
Volume: 266.1K Avg Volume: 359.363K
BUY POINT: $25.87 Volume=350K Target=$23.35 Stop=$26.85
POSITION: MI OF - Mar. 30p (-96 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mi.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING:
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
$OEX 02/03 Put 424.29 -4.51 430 413 0 0 434
Current. Back below the 10 day MVA on rising volume. A good resumption of the down move, but we need to see Nasdaq breaking lower as well for new positions below 420.
AFFX 02/08 Cup hdl 24.86 -0.11 26.55 30.55 725K 1.5M 24.69
Buy Not Issued.
AIG 02/20 Put 49.76 -0.42 49.48 46 4.5M 6M 51.25
New.
AMGN 01/22 A Wedge 53.99 +0.01 53.12 62 10M 20M 50.25
Current.
APOL 02/18 A Wedge 44.37 -0.14 46.25 52.88 881K 22M 43.35
Buy Not Hit.
APPX 01/25 Test BO 23.26 -0.98 25.4 30 815K 770K 23.32
Current.
ASKJ 12/26 Cup hdl 6.71 -0.07 2.89 7 1.6M 305K 5.05
Current.
ATRS 02/01 Test 50 14.85 +0.79 15.04 18 110K 218K 13.99
Buy Not Hit.
AVO 12/16 A Wedge 12.08 -0.28 12.06 14.45 503K 210K 11.94
Exited.
BEN 02/18 Put 32.58 -0.22 32.74 30 378K 600K 33.75
Current.
BGEN 02/01 Put 34.96 -3.2 37.65 34 12M 3.5M 38.65
Buy Not Issued.
BMC 02/19 Cup hdl 18.77 -0.17 19.29 23.15 1.3M 2.5M 17.94
Buy Not Hit.
BSC 02/15 Put 60.87 -0.48 60.75 56.75 887K 1.1M 62
Buy Not Hit.
BSTE 02/08 Put 32.3 +0.25 33.74 30.04 112K 500K 34.88
Current.
CCMP 02/19 Put 42.54 -0.23 41.45 37.12 1.6M 1.2M 44.22
Current.
CGNX 02/04 DB hdl 21.96 -0.52 22.94 26.88 301K 525K 21.12
Buy Not Issued.
CHIR 02/08 Put 36.17 -0.49 36.52 33.52 1.3M 2M 37.36
Current.
CKFR 01/28 Cup hdl 20.47 +0.48 20.85 25 2.4M 2M 18.94
Buy Not Hit.
CTXS 02/08 Put 12.58 +0.02 11.55 9.05 1.9M 450K 12.75
Current.
CVD 12/21 Cup hdl 23 +0.03 24.75 29.74 286K 581K 24.25
Current.
CVD 11/05 Test BO 23 +0.03 23.65 28 286K 581K 24.88
Current.
CVH 01/25 Put 27.6 +0.11 27.95 24.25 632K 600K 27.35
Current.
DCX 02/03 Put 29.63 -0.27 31.15 26.55 583K 950K 31.35
Current.
ESRX 02/18 Put 50.09 +0.34 49.94 46 803K 1.2M 51.24
Buy Not Issued.
EV 02/15 Put 26.58 -0.07 26.9 23.35 106K 225K 28.12
Current.
EXC 02/13 Put 49.96 +0.54 49.65 45.55 1.2M 1.5M 50.85
Buy Not Issued.
FAST 02/01 Put 32.19 -0.13 32.29 29.15 302K 800K 32.94
Current.
FDS 02/19 Put 25.6 -0.08 25.45 22.12 174K 300K 26.45
Buy Not Issued.
FON 02/03 Put 12.66 +0.15 12.42 10 5.1M 3.8M 13.05
Exited.
GPN 01/27 Put 28.49 -0.32 27.55 24.55 70K 175K 28.78
Current.
GRMN 11/06 Cup hdl 33.93 +0.89 22.34 34 469K 198K 28.35
Current.
JEF 02/15 Put 37.37 -0.49 38 34.08 147K 210K 39.28
Current.
JPM 02/11 Put 22.69 +0.19 21.68 18 7.2M 12M 22.85
Current.
MDCO 01/10 Cup hdl 17.8 +0.3 17.35 20.85 490K 800K 16.15
Current.
MI 02/11 Put 26.26 -0.25 25.87 23.35 266K 350K 26.85
Buy Not Issued.
MMC 01/30 Put 41.35 -0.27 43.45 38 827K 2M 42.25
Current.
MSN 12/21 Test BO 7.1 +0.1 5.92 7.45 172K 150K 4.94
Buy Not Issued.
MSN 12/04 Cup hdl 7.1 +0.1 4.85 6.35 172K 150K 5.94
Current.
MSN 11/23 Cup hdl 7.1 +0.1 4.15 6.35 172K 150K 5.94
Current.
NATI 02/15 Test 50 34.3 +0.37 34.05 39 196K 425K 31.67
Buy Not Issued.
NFLX 01/25 A Wedge 15.38 +0.24 13.28 15.88 453K 503K 12.15
Buy Not Issued.
NSCN 12/22 Pennant 20.15 +0.07 17.24 21.24 859K 1.8M 18.25
Current.
NSM 01/25 Put 15.35 +0.97 13.96 11.95 3.6M 2.8M 14.25
Current.
PNRA 02/12 Put 25.87 -0.22 27.48 24 746K 1.2M 29
Buy Not Issued.
POT 02/10 Put 56.4 -0.6 59.35 55 242K 175K 60.05
Buy Not Issued.
PRX 02/08 BO 33.55 -0.35 33.11 39.74 292K 435K 30.54
Buy Not Issued.
QCOM 12/21 Test 50 34.71 -0.83 39.15 48 15M 18M 36.41
Buy Not Issued.
QCOM 12/04 Test 18 34.71 -0.83 40.85 50 15M 18M 37
Current.
QCOM 11/07 Test BO 34.71 -0.83 34.78 42 15M 18M 37
Current.
QLGC 11/07 Test BO 35.55 +0.05 41.4 50 5.4M 25M 39.88
ROST 02/05 Put 34.79 -0.69 36.75 33.45 2M 1.7M 37.88
Current.
SBUX 02/15 Test 18 22.59 -0.24 22.74 25 5.2M 4.5M 21.75
Buy Not Issued.
SNPS 02/19 Put 40.46 +0.71 39.38 35.68 2.5M 1.5M 40.65
Buy Not Issued.
STK 02/19 Cup hdl 23.8 -0.04 24.65 28.45 527K 1M 23.05
Buy Not Hit.
VRTY 02/18 Cup hdl 15.15 +0.18 16.43 19.65 322K 500K 15.15
Buy Not Hit.
WB 01/29 Put 35.35 +0.09 35.28 32.05 2.5M 3.5M 36.05
Current.
YHOO 12/11 Test 50 19.72 +0.34 17.32 22.75 7M 20M 17.74
Current.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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