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us stock market, trading system
Begin Part 2 of 3
SEMINARS ON CD
There is an incredible wealth of knowledge, years of experience, and 'how to' plans of action in these seminars. As one graduate put it, "I had no idea how little I knew about market direction and the reasons behind it until I took your course." Our graduates over the past year and one-half have made the bear market in stocks their own private second bull market because they learned how to and when to enter the downside and make dramatic profit from what most investors dread. Have the knowledge to take advantage of any kind of market as well as the confidence to act when you see the action unfold. We cover it all from trends, to accumulation/distribution, patterns, stocks, buying and selling options naked, covered, or creating spreads. Go to
http://www.stockseminarsonline.com
This is Jon Johnson's own site devoted exclusively to seminars designed to teach you what you need to know about the stock market and stock movement and how to take advantage of those moves without incurring the usual high costs of travel and related expenses usually associated with seminars.
THE PLAYS:
Good moves: ASKJ; BMC; VRTY
Best Plays:
1) OSTK: Nice pullback from an emerging retail leader.
2) POWI: This semiconductor niche is doing well.
3) BCGI: Wireless looks ready to start again.
4) PLCM: Failing the 50 day MVA test on stronger volume.
5) CGNX: Still a nice pullback.
6) VRTY: Still building for a breakout.
7) NFLX: Giving a breakout test.
8) FDS: Very low volume bounce.
New Plays:
Downside:
Play Date: 02/22/2003
JDEC (J.D. Edwards & Co.--$11.19; -1.14; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jdec.html
STATUS: Put. JDEC announced earnings Thursday, and though profits were up, its outlook was not. The stock crashed below the 200 day MVA (11.74) Friday, plunged down to 11.19, but then managed to cut a third of its losses. Typically what happens in these gaps below support is a test back up as value hunters come in. When the stock reaches resistance, however, it usually runs out of gas and starts a more significant decline. We are loking for a bounce up to test the 200 day MVA then pick it up on the fall.
Volume: 4.422M Avg Volume: 1M
BUY POINT: After a test of 11.75, $11.60 on the way back down. Volume=1.5M Target=$9 Stop=$12.18
POSITION: QJD QV - May $12.50p (-63 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jdec.html
Play Date: 02/22/2003
MANH (Manhatten Assoc.--$21.15; -0.68; optionable): System software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/manh.html
STATUS: Put. Peaked in early December and then failing an attempt to base along the 50 day at 24, MANH has spent the past three weeks moveing down its short term MVA. After bouncing up off of 20 starting a week back and moving no very low volume, MANH hit the 10 day MVA and started to roll over on above average volume. Friday it turned over, and it looks ready to continue the next leg lower.
Volume: 711.62K Avg Volume: 466.772K
BUY POINT: $21.03 Volume=700K Target=$18 Stop=$22.35
POSITION: MQR PX - April 22.50p (-56 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/manh.html
Play Date: 02/22/2003
PLCM (Polycom--$10; -0.53; optionable): Telecom processing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/plcm.html
STATUS: Put. Double topped in December and January and then plunged through the 50 day MVA (10.34) early in February on strong volume. It has since rallied back up to test that level. Thursday it closed over the 50 day MVA, but volume was low. It then turned over Friday on a big burst of volume, and looks to be starting the next leg lower with quite a push.
Volume: 2.285M Avg Volume: 1.29M
BUY POINT: $9.94 Volume=1.5M Target=$8.5 Stop=$10.52
POSITION: QHD PV - April $12.50p (-84 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/plcm.html
Upside:
Play Date: 02/22/2003
BCGI (Boston Communications--$13.28; -0.01; optionable): Wireless communicaitons
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcgi.html
STATUS: Cup. Wireless stocks were an early leader off the July low. They did not sell much at all during the October did, continuing to rally up through December. Since then they have based out again following the strong mov eup. BCGI was one of those leaders and made us some money, and now it is working on a 3-month cup base, working up the right side of the pattern. The past week it moved laterally over the 10 day MVA at 13 on very low, below average volume. Accumulation during the base has been positive at 2 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume. This is on top of the excellent accumulation out of the summer lows. Money flow is again moving up well ahead of price as the stock works laterally; that is the type of divergence we like to see as it indicates there is buyside pressure building that could release with a nice breakout. NXTL's earnings showed again that wireless is doing well, and are looking for BCGI to put this good pattern to positive use.
Volume: 101.5K Avg Volume: 217.045K
BUY POINT: $13.63 Volume=215K Target=$16.35 Stop=$12.68
POSITION: QGB FE - June $12.50c (67 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bcgi.html
Play Date: 02/22/2003
LGTO (Legato Systems--$6.27; +0.24; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lgto.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Labeling this pattern is a bit harder, but call it a triangle or a double bottom with handle, LGTO has enhoyed excellent accumulation since the start of the base, coming in at 5 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume. The past week it moved laterally on top of the 10 day MVA at 6 on mostly below average volume before a huge volume spike Friday. The company is supposedly putting itself up for sale, but that has not had a negative effect on the price pattern. Money flow is strong and moving up ahead of price. Looking for a breakout from this nice little pattern.
Volume: 3.099M Avg Volume: 1.479M
BUY POINT: $6.42 Volume=2M Target=$8.25 Stop=$5.88
POSITION: EQN IR - Sept. $5c (76 delta, low OI) or EQN FR - June $5c (78 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lgto.html
Play Date: 02/22/2003
OSTK (Overstock.com--$16.56; +0.04; no options): Specialty retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/ostk.html
STATUS: Test breakout. OSTK is one of the few retailers that has performed very well all during the selling. It was a new issue in July, and it has simply been blowing out its earnings as it has found a niche and is able to outperform those in the same 'closeout' sector. In testing the breakout, OSTK has basically formed a short, 4-week cup with handle; a little shorter than usual, but the stock is performing better than others and is a new issue. A very nice, lower volume pullback after a strong move up early in the month is setting up the next breakout and leg higher. Accumulation is excellent at 4 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume since it started working more or less laterally in December.
Volume: 40K Avg Volume: 190.045K
BUY POINT: $17.05 Volume=275K Target=$20.45 Stop=$16.65
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ostk.html
Play Date: 02/22/2003
POWI (Power Integrations--$21.84; -0.06; optionable): Integrated semiconductor circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/powi.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Semiconductors may predominantly be in downtrends, but this particular integrated circuit sector sports some of these stocks in very nice patterns. POWI is moving through a 9-month base showing solid 9 to 4 accumulation (9 up weeks on rising volume to 4 down weeks on rising volume). Money flow is huge, leading the stock higher even as it moves laterally over the last three weeks as it continues to move in the handle.Very nice pattern of accumulation and now we look for a strong breakout to send it higher.
Volume: 473.33K Avg Volume: 523.454K
BUY POINT: $23.05 Volume=750K Target=$27.74 Stop=$21.28
POSITION: QPW GX - July $22.50c (54 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/powi.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 02/08/2003
AFFX (Affymetrix--$25.63; +0.77; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/affx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working in the handle of the 3-month base, AFFX traced back to the 50 day MVA (24.70) last week and then bounced up Friday with the rest of the market. Not a particularly strong move as volume was still light, but holding where it should hold in the handle of the base. Now we look for a volume surge through the buy point.
Volume: 807.733K Avg Volume: 968.136K
BUY POINT: $26.55 Volume=1.5M Target=$30.55 Stop=$24.69
POSITION: FIQ HE - August $25c (64 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/affx.html
Play Date: 02/18/2003
APOL (Apollo Group--$45.24; +0.87; optionable): Education and training
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apol.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Moving very well in the pattern, testing the 50 day MVA on the Friday low (43.73) and then rebounding on a solid volume increase. It has held up very well in the selling, and the volume surge looks like a precursor to a breakout. This stocks has been a leader and has used the selling to build this base in preparation for its next run. That is an indication of a stronger stock.
Volume: 1.648M Avg Volume: 1.753M
BUY POINT: $46.25 Volume=22M Target=$52.88 Stop=$43.35
POSITION: OAQ HI - Aug. $45c (58 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/apol.html
Play Date: 02/19/2003
BMC (BMC Software--$19.34; +0.57; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bmc.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice move on volume Friday, making the breakout. It is still a buy at this point and new positions can still be taken on a further move up on continued solid volume.
Volume: 2.754M Avg Volume: 1.82M
BUY POINT: $19.29 Volume=2.5M Target=$23.15 Stop=$18.15
POSITION: BMC HW - Aug. $17.50c (69 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bmc.html
Play Date: 02/04/2003
CGNX (Cognex--$22.16; +0.22; optionable): Scientific & Technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cgnx.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Big move two Friday's back was tested this week, holding the 18 day MVA on the Thursday and Friday lows (21.63). Friday CGNX tested the 18 day and then rebounded to close over the 10 day on rising, above average volume. A very nice test of the move, and we are looking to pick it up as it resumes its climb on this stronger volume.
Volume: 440.824K Avg Volume: 351.5K
BUY POINT: $23.09 Volume=525K Target=$26.88 Stop=$21.47
POSITION: QCG ED - May $20c (65 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cgnx.html
Play Date: 01/10/2003
MDCO (The Medicines Company--$17.92; +0.12; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mdco.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. Still building pressure at 18 for a stronger leg higher, MDCO continues to test that level on the highs as volume tapered off to below average at the end of the week. That is clearly the resistance point and thus we are looking for a break over that level on a big surge of buying volume.
Volume: 384.402K Avg Volume: 584.363K
BUY POINT: New: 18.08 (orig. $17.35) Volume=800K Target=$20.85 Stop=$16.15
POSITION: MQL DV - April $12.50c (64 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mdco.html
Play Date: 01/25/2003
NFLX (Netflix--$14.9; -0.48; optionable): Mail order movies
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nflx.html
STATUS: Test breakout. After a move up the 10 day MVA, NFLX is testing back, starting to make its first pullback in two weeks. Looks as if it will seek the 10 day MVA (14.11) on this pullback, and we want to see volume back off some; it was again above average Friday as it fell. A test of 14 that bounces higher is where we enter.
Volume: 446.997K Avg Volume: 337.454K
BUY POINT: $14.15 Volume=503K Target=$17.96 Stop=$13.35
POSITION: QNQ FV - June $12.50c (58 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nflx.html
Play Date: 02/18/2003
VRTY (Verity--$15.85; +0.7; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vrty.html
STATUS: Flat. VRTY sold on some higher volume Wednesday, but it held within the pattern and recovered well at the end of the week. It rallied back up to the top of the range on solid volume. We continue to watch for the upside breakout from this solid trading range that appears to be building pressure for an upside breakout.
Volume: 339.78K Avg Volume: 360.636K
BUY POINT: $16.12 Volume=500K Target=$19.65 Stop=$14.88
POSITION: YQV FC - June $15c (63 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vrty.html
End Part 2 of 3
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us stock market
trading system
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