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Begin Part 3 of 3

Downside:

Play Date: 02/18/2003
BEN (Franklin Resources--$32.82; +0.24; optionable): Asset management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/ben.html
STATUS: Put. BEN continues to struggle at he 18 day MVA, closing right below that level Friday. Volume rose to average levels as BEN showed a doji on the candlestick chart. BEN tried to move over the 18 day MVA Tuesday and fell back. It has slid lower since, but has not made the breakdown. Its inability to move up Friday when the market rallied along with the rising volume indicates it is ready to roll back down and we can jump on new or additional positions when it does.
Volume: 656.4K Avg Volume: 600.5K
BUY POINT: $32.74 Volume=600K Target=$30 Stop=$33.75
POSITION: BEN PG - Apr. $35p (-77 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ben.html

Play Date: 02/19/2003
CCMP (Cabot Microelectronics--$42.78; +0.24; optionable): Special chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ccmp.html
STATUS: Put. Started down in a higher volume reversal Wednesday and Thursday, but tried a weak test of the 10 day MVA on the Friday high (43.15) as volume tanked. The candlestick pattern was a doji, so it looks as if CCMP is going to continue the move down from here. Again, CCMP's downward moves in the trend can easily cover $10.
Volume: 668.05K Avg Volume: 979.636K
BUY POINT: $42.45 Volume=1.2M Target=$37.12 Stop=$44.22
POSITION: UKR PI - Apr. $45p (-59 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ccmp.html

Play Date: 02/18/2003
ESRX (Express Scripts--$51.08; +0.99; optionable): Mail order prescriptions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esrx.html
STATUS: Put. ESRX did not roll over at the 10 day MVA, but instead rallied to tape the exponential 50 day MVA on the Friday high (51.40) before closing right at the 18 day MVA. Volume moved higher toward average as it made the further test higher, but it has still not cleared key resistance of the moving averages and price peaks at 52. Looking for it to roll down from here on some above average volume and give us an entry point.
Volume: 1.185M Avg Volume: 1.33M
BUY POINT: $49.94 Volume=1.2M Target=$46 Stop=$51.24
POSITION: XTQ QJ - May $50p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/esrx.html

Play Date: 02/19/2003
FDS (Factset Research--$26.17; +0.57; optionable): Information and delivery service software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fds.html
STATUS: Put. FDS joined the rally Friday, but volume was almost non-existent. It managed to move and close over the 18 day MVA (26.12), but the low volume provides no support for the move and we are looking for FDS to maybe test a bit higher and then fail. If it makes it up to the 50 day MVA (27.15), we will adjust our buy point higher if we see it reverse on volume.
Volume: 93K Avg Volume: 266.227K
BUY POINT: From here: $25.45. After rolling over at 27, 26.45. Volume=300K Target=$22.12 Stop=$26.45
POSITION: FDS RE - June $25p (-40 delta) or FDS RF - June $30 p (-74 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/fds.html

Play Date: 02/13/2003
EXC (Exelon--$50.11; +0.15; optionable): Utilities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/exc.html
STATUS: Put. Tested the exponential 50 day MVA (50.69) on the Friday high and then gave back most of the move. It held the 200 day MVA at 50, but after moving through the 18 day MVA on lower volume and moving up to the 50 day on even lower volume, this is the natural point for the move to fail in the downtrend.
Volume: 1.062M Avg Volume: 1.277M
BUY POINT: New: $49.65 Volume=1.5M Target=$45.55 Stop=$50.85
POSITION: EXC PJ - April $50p (-56 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/exc.html

Play Date: 02/15/2003
JEF (Jeffries Group--$37.58; +0.21; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jef.html
STATUS: Put. JEF hit the 18 day MVA (38.25) last week and turned over, but Friday it bounced some in the overall market move, testing just over the 10 day MVA (37.80) on the high but failing to retake that level. Volume was sharply higher and above average, but it still looks as if JEF is going to continue its downtrend. On another test of the 10 day MVA that fails it is a buy.
Volume: 224.2K Avg Volume: 181.59K
BUY POINT: Test 37.80 that fails. (orig. $38) Volume=210K Target=$34.08 Stop=$38.48
POSITION: JEF PH - April $40p (-80 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jef.html

Play Date: 02/11/2003
JPM (JP Morgan--$22.88; +0.19; optionable): Money bank
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jpm.html
STATUS: Put. Friday JPM rallied with the market, running up over the 18 day MVA, but closing right at that level. Volume rose but was still below average. It may try to move up to test the 50 day MVA (23.54), but there is a level of resistance from the late January consolidation it ran into on the Friday high (23.10) and fell back. We will look for it to stall out mid-week and oepn up new downside opportunities.
Volume: 8.54M Avg Volume: 9.94M
BUY POINT: $21.74 Volume=12M Target=$18 Stop=$22.85
POSITION: JPM OE - Mar. $25p (-71 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jpm.html

WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING:

Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop

$OEX 02/03 Put 429.87 +5.58 430 413 1.4M 0 434
Exited.

AFFX 02/08 Cup hdl 25.63 +0.77 26.55 30.55 808K 1.5M 24.69
Buy Not Issued. Good move Friday.

AIG 02/20 Put 50.81 +1.05 49.48 46 6.3M 6M 51.25
Buy Not Hit. Still moving laterally below the 18 day MVA.

AMGN 01/22 A Wedge 54.6 +0.61 53.12 62 11M 20M 50.25
Current. Another move to a recent new high though volume is still below average. We will take it.

APOL 02/18 A Wedge 45.24 +0.87 46.25 52.88 1.6M 22M 43.35
Buy Not Hit.

APPX 01/25 Test BO 22.9 -0.36 25.4 30 885K 770K 23.32
Current. Not doing well, heading below the 18 day MVA on rising volume. It turns up Monday or we are going to close it.

ASKJ 12/26 Cup hdl 7.47 +0.76 2.89 8 2.3M 305K 6.08
Current. Powering higher again. Changed the target and the stop.

ATRS 02/01 Test 50 14.65 -0.2 15.04 18 102K 218K 13.99
Buy Not Hit.

BCGI 02/22 Cup 13.28 -0.01 13.63 16.35 102K 215K 12.68
New.

BEN 02/18 Put 32.82 +0.24 32.74 30 656K 600K 33.75
Current. Doji right below the 18 day MVA on rising, average volume.

BLTI 02/10 Test BO 6.65 -0.2 7.2 9.15 513K 300K 6.55
Current.

BMC 02/19 Cup hdl 19.34 +0.57 19.29 23.15 2.8M 2.5M 18.15
Current. Nice volume break higher.

BSC 02/15 Put 61.69 +0.82 60.45 56.45 977K 1.1M 62.04
Current. Headed sharply lower on volume in the 1st hour, but then reversed with the market. Closed @ the 50 day MVA. Will see if it stalls here but wont hesitate to cut it after the whipsaw.

BSTE 02/08 Put 32.27 -0.03 33.74 30.04 127K 500K 33.92
Current. Struggling at the 10 day MVA on very low volume. Needs to get below 32.

CCMP 02/19 Put 42.78 +0.24 41.45 37.12 668K 1.2M 44.22
Current.

CGNX 02/04 DB hdl 22.16 +0.22 23.09 26.88 441K 525K 21.47
Buy Not Issued.

CHIR 02/08 Put 37.05 +0.88 36.52 33.52 1.7M 2M 37.36
Exited. Started up on higher volume and got out flat.

CKFR 01/28 Cup hdl 20.66 +0.19 20.85 25 1M 2M 18.94
Buy Not Hit. Moving up, but volume sporadic. Not showing the great power we wanted. Will look for test of 10 day MVA @ 19.50

CTXS 02/08 Put 12.5 -0.08 11.55 9.05 3M 450K 12.75
Current. Needs to break below 12 this week.

CVD 12/21 Cup hdl 23.47 +0.47 24.75 29.74 355K 581K 24.25
Current.

CVD 11/05 Test BO 23.47 +0.47 23.65 28 355K 581K 24.88
Current. Making a move up off 23 on some rising volume. Some promise but if it stalls @ 34 (18 & 50 day MVA) we will exit.

CVH 01/25 Put 28.27 +0.67 27.95 24.25 602K 600K 27.35
Exited.

DCX 02/03 Put 30.24 +0.61 31.15 26.55 878K 950K 31.35
Current. Still in the downtrend, but a choppy move w/volume spiking up Friday. Letting it work in the trend.

ESRX 02/18 Put 51.08 +0.99 50.24 46 1.2M 1.2M 51.55
Buy Not Issued.

EV 02/15 Put 26.79 +0.21 26.9 23.35 298K 225K 27.45
Current. Sharply rising volume Friday as EV tested the 10 day MVA. Still locked in the downtrend but needs to hold below the 18 day.

EXC 02/13 Put 50.11 +0.15 49.65 45.55 1.1M 1.5M 50.85
Buy Not Issued.

FAST 02/01 Put 32.72 +0.53 32.29 29.15 418K 800K 32.94
Current. FAST trying to move laterally below the 18 day MVA (32.70) in a higher bounce in the steep downtrend. Letting it run but it is close to the stop.

FDS 02/19 Put 26.17 +0.57 25.45 22.12 93K 300K 26.45
Buy Not Issued.

GPN 01/27 Put 29.02 +0.53 27.55 24.55 57K 175K 28.78
Exited.

GRMN 11/06 Cup hdl 33.89 -0.04 22.34 34 414K 198K 30.65
Current. Topping out some @34 on lower volume. A stellar performer and decided to let it run, willing to allow a pullback in the continuing uptrend.

JDEC 02/22 Put 11.19 -1.14 11.6 9 4.4M 1.5M 12.18
New.

JEF 02/15 Put 37.58 +0.21 38 34.08 224K 210K 38.48
Current. Still in the downtrend but volume spiked at the 10 day MVA Friday. No change in character at this stage.

JPM 02/11 Put 22.88 +0.19 21.68 18 8.5M 12M 22.85
Current. Debated closing it, but still struggling w/18 day so decided to let it run another day.

LGTO 02/22 A Wedge 6.27 +0.24 6.42 8.25 3.1M 2M 5.88
New.

MANH 02/22 Put 21.15 -0.68 21.03 18 712K 700K 22.35
New.

MDCO 01/10 Cup hdl 17.92 +0.12 17.35 20.85 384K 800K 16.28
Current. Still holding the 18 day MVA while building for a move over 18.

MI 02/11 Put 26.52 +0.26 25.87 23.35 323K 350K 26.85
Buy Not Issued. Tested the 18 day MVA on the Friday high and fell back though closing with a gain. Needs to fall back through 26.

MMC 01/30 Put 42.07 +0.72 43.45 38 1.3M 2M 42.25
Exited. Went ahead & took $ off the table with a trailing stop and small gain as MMC moved over the 18 day.

MSN 12/04 Cup hdl 6.99 -0.11 4.85 7.65 166K 150K 5.94
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA on the low and recovered. Struggling some but still holding up.

MSN 11/23 Cup hdl 6.99 -0.11 4.15 7.65 166K 150K 5.94
Current.

NATI 02/15 Test 50 34.6 +0.3 34.05 39 113K 425K 31.67
Buy Not Issued. Has not given the strong move yet. Prefer to let it test back & hold the 18 day at 33.40 & then pick it up.

NFLX 01/25 Test BO 14.9 -0.48 14.15 17.96 447K 503K 13.35
Buy Not Issued. Giving the test of the move, & will look at positions after a test of the 10 day at 14.11 and a bounce from there.

NSCN 12/22 Pennant 20.16 +0.01 17.24 21.24 1.3M 1.8M 18.75
Current. Again struggling @ 20, but showed good volume Friday on a test of the 10 day on the low & solid rebound.

NSM 01/25 Put 15.59 +0.24 13.96 11.95 4.6M 2.8M 14.25
Current. Doji after a gap up on the strongest volume on the run. Looks like it has exhausted itself and needs to test toward 14.

OSTK 02/22 Test BO 16.56 +0.04 17.05 20.45 40K 275K 16.65
New.

PLCM 02/22 Put 10 -0.53 9.94 8.5 2.3M 1.5M 10.52
New.

PNRA 02/12 Put 26.3 +0.43 27.48 24 491K 1.2M 29
Buy Not Issued.

POT 02/10 Put 56.65 +0.25 59.35 55 304K 175K 60.05
Very nice move down, bouncing some Friday on much stronger volume
& looks like will test higher in downtrend.

POWI 02/22 Cup hdl 21.84 -0.06 23.05 27.74 473K 750K 21.28
New.

PRX 02/08 BO 34.56 +1.01 34.65 40.45 280K 435K 32.65
Buy Not Issued. Tested the 10 day MVA and now starting up again.

QCOM 12/04 Test 18 35.22 +0.52 40.85 50 16M 18M 37
Current. Nice volume surge Friday but QCOM could not break the 10 day MVA. Trying to set up a test higher. 18 day at 36 where there is also price resistance. That is a key test.

QCOM 11/07 Test BO 35.22 +0.52 34.78 42 16M 18M 37
Current.

QLGC 11/07 Test BO 35.68 +0.13 41.4 50 5.6M 25M 39.88

ROST 02/05 Put 35.02 +0.23 36.75 33.45 1.9M 1.7M 36.35
Current. Still working in the downtrend.

SBUX 02/15 Test 18 23.32 +0.73 22.74 25 4.1M 4.5M 22.28

SNPS 02/19 Put 41.15 +0.69 39.38 35.68 1.3M 1.5M 40.65
Buy Not Issued. Rallied on earnings up to the 50 day MVA, but that may be all. Still looking for it to roll over.

STK 02/19 Cup hdl 23.47 -0.33 24.65 28.45 957K 1M 23.05
Buy Not Hit. Volume surged above average as STK tested and held the 18 day MVA in a narrow range. That can signal an upside move coming.

VRTY 02/18 Cup hdl 15.85 +0.7 16.12 19.65 340K 500K 14.88
Buy Not Hit.

WB 01/29 Put 35.96 +0.61 35.28 32.05 2.5M 3.5M 36.05
Current. Contemplated exiting, but it tested the simple 50 day (36.39) and fell well off that. On a test toward 35 that holds we exit.

YHOO 12/11 Test 50 19.83 +0.11 17.32 22.75 6.4M 20M 17.74
Current.

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

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