stock recommendation, stock option

Begin Part 2 of 2

THE PLAYS:

Good moves: ZMH; BMC; AMGN; CELL; EXPE; SYMC

New:

Upside:

Play Date: 02/22/2003
OSTK (Overstock.com--$16.56; +0.04; no options): Specialty retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/ostk.html
STATUS: Test breakout. OSTK is one of the few retailers that has performed very well all during the selling. It was a new issue in July, and it has simply been blowing out its earnings as it has found a niche and is able to outperform those in the same 'closeout' sector. In testing the breakout, OSTK has basically formed a short, 4-week cup with handle; a little shorter than usual, but the stock is performing better than others and is a new issue. A very nice, lower volume pullback after a strong move up early in the month is setting up the next breakout and leg higher. Accumulation is excellent at 4 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume since it started working more or less laterally in December.
Volume: 40K Avg Volume: 190.045K
BUY POINT: $17.05 Volume=275K Target=$20.45 Stop=$16.65
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ostk.html

Play Date: 02/22/2003
WFR (Memc Electronic--$9.13; +0.55; no options): Integrated semiconductor circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. WFR peaked in April and suffered a deep correction, rallying off the October low to form the right side of the base. The past three months it has moved laterally and slightly lower on mostly below average volume, showing very good price/volume action (price up on higher volume days, lower on down price sessions). Accumulation in the base is solid at 11 accumulation weeks to 3 distribution weeks; very good. Money flow has turned up ahead of the price as the stock forms this handle, and relative strength is already breaking out . Friday volume surged well above avearge on a solid stock move. Looking for the breakout on continued strong volume. It is a semiconductor, but it has its own niche and has performed much better than its brethren.
Volume: 261K Avg Volume: 142.909K
BUY POINT: $9.35 Volume=217K Target=$11.25 Stop=$8.59
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wfr.html

Downside:

Play Date: 02/22/2003
PLCM (Polycom--$10; -0.53; optionable): Telecom processing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/plcm.html
STATUS: Put. Double topped in December and January and then plunged through the 50 day MVA (10.34) early in February on strong volume. It has since rallied back up to test that level. Thursday it closed over the 50 day MVA, but volume was low. It then turned over Friday on a big burst of volume, and looks to be starting the next leg lower with quite a push.
Volume: 2.285M Avg Volume: 1.29M
BUY POINT: $9.94 Volume=1.5M Target=$8.5 Stop=$10.52
POSITION: QHD PV - April $12.50p (-84 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/plcm.html

Play Date: 02/22/2003
WCN (Waste Connections--$33.49; +0.87; optionable): Waste management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wcn.html
STATUS: Put. Similar to many stocks, WCN peaked in January and has since trended lower below the short term MVA. It announced earnings Wednesday night and was hammered back Thursday. It recovered off the low and then managed to rebound further Friday on lower though still above average volume. WCN spent a long time moveing laterally just below the 200 day MVA (34.43), and this breakdown opens the door lower after a further rebound to test the collapse. Looking for a move to test the 34 level and then turn back over.
Volume: 539.3K Avg Volume: 282.681K
BUY POINT: $33.38 Volume=425K Target=$30 Stop=$34.35
POSITION: WCN PG - Apr. $35 put (-64 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wcn.html

CONTINUING PLAYS:

Still look good:
BMC; VRTY; PFCB; BG; AVCT; FDS; JEF

Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop

$OEX 02/03 Put 429.87 +5.58 430 413 1.4M 0 434
Exited. Will wait for the test of the 50 day MVA and then look at an entry point.

AIG 02/20 Put 50.81 +1.05 49.48 46 6.3M 6M 51.25
Buy Not Hit. Still moving laterally below the 18 day MVA.

ALN 01/18 Test BO 13.35 +0.21 13.41 16.85 1M 450K 12.25
Buy Not Issued.

ALN 11/09 Test BO 13.35 +0.21 7.28 14 1M 200K 12.45
Current. Trying to move up off the 10 day MVA.

AMGN 01/22 A Wedge 54.6 +0.61 53.12 62 11M 20M 50.25
Current. Another move to a recent new high though volume is still below average. We will take it.

AMZN 01/09 Test 50 21.78 +0.42 22.72 27.25 7.3M 13M 20.75
Buy Not Issued.

AMZN 10/21 Cup hdl 21.78 +0.42 20.32 24.38 7.3M 10M 20.75
Current. Up off the 50 day MVA on some rising, above average volume, making the move it needed to make.

APOL 02/18 A Wedge 45.24 +0.87 46.25 52.88 1.6M 22M 43.35
Buy Not Hit.

AVCT 02/13 Test BO 27.05 +0.07 27.65 30.45 441K 725K 25.71
Buy Not Issued. Good test of the 18 day MVA and bounced on solid volume.

BEN 02/18 Put 32.82 +0.24 32.74 30 656K 600K 33.75
Current. Doji right below the 18 day MVA on rising, average volume.

BG 01/29 Test BO 26 +0.11 26.45 31.45 204K 675K 24.93
Buy Not Hit. Looks very good here on the 18 day MVA, starting the move up but needs volume.

BHE 02/11 Test BO 35.4 -0.2 35.75 41.12 309K 500K 33.25
Buy Not Issued.

BLTI 02/10 Test BO 6.65 -0.2 7.2 9.15 513K 300K 6.55
Current. Kept an alert on it, & it blasted off Friday and we issued an alert on the strong volume move.

BMC 02/19 Cup hdl 19.34 +0.57 19.29 23.15 2.8M 2.5M 18.15
Current. Nice volume break higher.

BMRN 02/15 Test 18 10.28 +0.03 10.48 12.35 4.2M 700K 9.65
Buy Not Issued. Took off early on volume, but we usually wait to see how the early moves sort through the existing buy and sell orders, and BMRN was not able to keep the move going and gave the move back.

BRL 01/27 Test 18 75.31 -0.77 77.78 88 1.1M 875K 72.34

CCMP 02/19 Put 42.78 +0.24 41.45 37.12 668K 1.2M 44.22
Current.

CELG 02/04 Put 22.03 +0.48 21.94 19.75 409K 1M 22.55
Current. Tapped the 50 day MVA on the high on rising though still below average volume.

CELL 02/06 Test BO 10.61 +0.6 10.65 12.75 110K 260K 9.64
Current. Nice move off the 10 day MVA on stronger volume.

CHS 01/25 Put 18.5 +0.25 17.79 14.51 1.1M 1.2M 18.78
Exited. Just not making the move lower.

CKFR 01/28 Cup hdl 20.66 +0.19 20.85 25 1M 2M 18.94
Buy Not Hit.

CTXS 02/08 Put 12.5 -0.08 11.55 9.05 3M 450K 12.75
Current. Needs to break below 12 this week.

CVD 12/21 Cup hdl 23.47 +0.47 24.75 29.74 355K 581K 24.25
Current.

CVD 11/05 Test BO 23.47 +0.47 23.65 28 355K 581K 24.88
Current. Making a move up off 23 on some rising volume. Some promise but if it stalls @ 34 (18 & 50 day MVA) we will exit.

CVH 01/25 Put 28.27 +0.67 27.95 24.25 602K 600K 27.35
Exited.

DCX 02/03 Put 30.24 +0.61 31.15 26.55 878K 950K 31.35
Current. Still in the downtrend, but a choppy move w/volume spiking up Friday. Letting it work in the trend.

DKS 02/19 DB hdl 23.63 +1.51 22.75 27.35 245K 225K 21.38
Current. Beautiful move.

EAT 02/11 Put 27.06 +0.44 28.7 25.74 415K 750K 28.94
Current. Still working well in downtrend. Low volume bounce Friday.

EXPE 11/30 A Wedge 66.57 +3.27 78.25 88 4.1M 3.2M 62.25
Current. New buy point.

FAST 02/01 Put 32.72 +0.53 32.29 29.15 418K 800K 32.94
Current. FAST trying to move laterally below the 18 day MVA (32.70) in a higher bounce in the steep downtrend. Letting it run but it is close to the stop.

FDS 02/19 Put 26.17 +0.57 25.45 22.12 93K 300K 26.45
Buy Not Issued.

GPN 01/27 Put 29.02 +0.53 27.55 24.55 57K 175K 28.78
Exited.

HLTH 02/08 Test BO 9.78 +0.23 9.75 11.35 1.6M 3.1M 8.85
Current. Showing some life but volume not jumping up with it.

HLTH 12/12 Cup hdl 9.78 +0.23 8.85 11.35 1.6M 3.1M 9.22
Current.

JEF 02/15 Put 37.58 +0.21 38 34.08 224K 210K 38.48
Current. Still in the downtrend but volume spiked at the 10 day MVA Friday. No change in character at this stage.

JPM 02/11 Put 22.88 +0.19 21.68 18 8.5M 12M 22.85
Current. Debated closing it, but still struggling w/18 day so decided to let it run another day.

LGTO 02/22 A Wedge 6.27 +0.24 6.42 8.25 3.1M 2M 5.88
New.

MSN 12/04 Cup hdl 6.99 -0.11 4.85 7.65 166K 150K 5.94
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA on the low and recovered. Struggling some but still holding up.

MSN 11/23 Cup hdl 6.99 -0.11 4.15 7.65 166K 150K 5.94
Current.

NSCN 12/22 Pennant 20.16 +0.01 17.24 21.24 1.3M 1.8M 18.75
Current. Again struggling @ 20, but showed good volume Friday on a test of the 10 day on the low & solid rebound.

OSTK 02/22 Test BO 16.56 +0.04 17.05 20.45 40K 275K 16.65
New.

PFCB 02/13 Put 32.3 -0.7 32.45 27.75 622K 700K 33.88
Buy Not Issued. Nice reversal Friday on volume. Bounced up some so held off until Monday. Looks very good.

PLCM 02/22 Put 10 -0.53 9.94 8.5 2.3M 1.5M 10.52
New.

PNRA 02/12 Put 26.3 +0.43 27.48 24 491K 1.2M 29
Buy Not Issued.

PRU 02/15 Put 30.45 -0.01 30.88 27.88 2M 2.8M 31.45
Current. Doji below the 10 day MVA as PRU bounced down off the 18 day MVA last week.

PRX 02/08 BO 34.56 +1.01 34.65 40.45 280K 435K 32.65
Buy Not Issued.

QCOM 12/04 Test 18 35.22 +0.52 40.85 50 16M 18M 37
Current. Nice volume surge Friday but QCOM could not break the 10 day MVA. Trying to set up a test higher. 18 day at 36 where there is also price resistance. That is a key test.

QCOM 11/07 Test BO 35.22 +0.52 34.78 42 16M 18M 37
Current.

QLGC 11/07 Test BO 35.68 +0.13 41.4 50 5.6M 25M 39.88

QLGC 08/17 CCall 35.68 +0.13 36.48 0 5.6M 12M 37
Current. Tight, lateral move over the 18 day trying to set up a break higher. 200 day at 37.50, & if it surges it could move thorugh that.

SYMC 01/09 Test 50 47.81 +1 46.3 51 4.7M 4.1M 45.45
Current. Very nice volume surge as SYMC expands its move off the 50 day MVA.

UPL 10/19 A Wedge 9.89 +0.09 9.68 11.75 199K 345K 9.45
Current. Nice volume surge back to average on the move off the 18 day MVA.

VAR 12/18 Rv H&S 51.64 +0.2 50.25 58 478K 700K 49.15
Current. Volume moved above average as VAR moved up off the 18 day MVA following last week test of 50 day MVA.

VIA 02/15 Put 38.62 +0.81 37.88 34.55 295K 485K 38.45
Buy Not Issued. Appears ready to test higher toward the 50 day MVA (39.82) before resuming the trend.

VRTS 08/19 CCall 18.37 -0.03 19.76 20 6.6M 8.5M 17.45
Current. Very solid action, testing the 50 day on the low & rebounding on better volume. Want a move up to January high at 20 to sell May 20 or May 17.50 calls.

VRTY 02/18 Cup hdl 15.85 +0.7 16.12 19.65 340K 500K 14.88
Buy Not Hit. Looking very nice.

WB 01/29 Put 35.96 +0.61 35.28 32.05 2.5M 3.5M 36.05
Current. Contemplated exiting, but it tested the simple 50 day (36.39) and fell well off that. On a test toward 35 that holds we exit.

WCN 02/22 Put 33.49 +0.87 33.38 30 539K 425K 34.35
New.

WFR 02/22 Flat 9.13 +0.55 9.35 11.25 261K 217K 8.59
New.

ZMH 02/06 DB hdl 43.96 +0.95 42.65 50.88 1.6M 1.6M 42.05
Current. Still blasting off from that beautiful test, and doing so on excellent volume.

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

stock recommendation
stock option