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us stock market, stock pick
Begin part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good moves: BSTE; EV; FDS; JEF; OSTK; ROST
Best Plays:
1) CCU: Selling on rising volume.
2) MWD: Ditto as financials weaken
3) IRM: Excellent strength in the selling.
4) CGNX: Holding the 10 day MVA well.
5) VRTY: Moving well on some good volume.
6) AIG: Stalling at the 18 day MVA.
7) BEN: Starting down after the test.
8) MI: Falling on rising volume.
New Plays:
Downside:
Play Date: 02/24/2003
CCU (Clear Channel Communications--$34.6; -2.17; optionable): Radio broadcasting
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ccu.html
STATUS: Put. Double topped in December and January, and after testing the 200 day MVA at 27.85 it has rolled over. Monday it tanked from the 10 day MVA (36.75) on sharply higher, above average volume. High volume breach of its February low. Looks like a pretty clean shot down to the last low at 30.
Volume: 5.331M Avg Volume: 3.204M
BUY POINT: $34.44 Volume=4.8M Target=$30.25 Stop=$36.33
POSITION: CCU PG - Apr. $35p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ccu.html
Play Date: 02/24/2003
MWD (Morgan Stanley--$35.77; -1.25; optionable): Investment brokerages
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mwd.html
STATUS: Put. MWD started its steep downtrend in early January, using its 10 day MVA (36.29) as resistance. It then bounced up to the 18 day MVA (36.93) the past week, but on the lower volume it could not break that level. Monday it turned over on rising, above average volume as it looks to resume its downtrend. We are looking to mov in on that drop.
Volume: 5.084M Avg Volume: 4.505M
BUY POINT: $35.44 Volume=4.8M Target=$31.94 Stop=$37.02
POSITION: MWD PH - April. $45p (-70 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mwd.html
Play Date: 02/24/2003
$SOX (Philly Semiconductor Index--$292.20; -0.87; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/$/$sox.html
STATUS: Put. Moving right below the exponential 50 day MVA (293.27), SOX tapped the simple 50 day MVA on the high (297.25), showing yet another doji but refusing to sell off. We are going to be ready if the market rolls over for a nice SOX move ot the downside.
BUY POINT: $285.95 Volume=0 Target=$251 Stop=$292
POSITION: SOO OT - Mar. $300p (-53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/$sox.html
Upside:
Play Date: 02/24/2003
ADI (Analog Devices--$27.86; -0.4; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adi.html
STATUS: Testing the 200 day MVA. ADI is one of those chips that is showing relative life, surging up over the 200 day MVA (27.11) last week and moving more or less laterally since that time. It is holding up very well in the selling, holding above the down trendline from December that it broke 5 months back. If the semiconductors rally, ADI is poised to lead the further move. Money flow is leading the stock higher, and we like that it has already cleared its resistance.
Volume: 2.495M Avg Volume: 3.117M
BUY POINT: $28.45 Volume=3.5M Target=$32.75 Stop=$26.46
POSITION: ADI FE - June 25c (72 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/adi.html
Play Date: 02/24/2003
IRM (Iron Mountain--$33.01; -0.45; optionable): Data and file physical storage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/irm.html
STATUS: Flat. IRM surged off the October low as it completed its double bottom, breaking out in mid-November on a huge volume surge. The past three months it has moved laterally over 31 in a $3 range forming the current base. Friday it surged on a sharp increase in volume, volume that followed two spikes the weak before. Monday it pulled back slightly on lower volume in the market selling. Money flow has moved up ahead of the stock and relative strength has already broken out. Accumulation in the flat base is solid at 4 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume. May form more of a handle here, and we await the breakout.
Volume: 308.2K Avg Volume: 259.136K
BUY POINT: $33.55 Volume=389K Target=$38.55 Stop=$31.75
POSITION: IRM GF - July 30c (70 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/irm.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 02/08/2003
AFFX (Affymetrix--$24.95; -0.68; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/affx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. The Friday move reversed, and we have to wait further to see if it can break up and out of the handle of the 3-month base. Still in the handle, so we will see.
Volume: 766.316K Avg Volume: 965.454K
BUY POINT: $26.55 Volume=1.5M Target=$30.55 Stop=$24.69
POSITION: FIQ HE - August $25c (64 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/affx.html
Play Date: 02/18/2003
APOL (Apollo Group--$44.67; -0.57; optionable): Education and training
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apol.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Turned back from the bounce started Friday, managing to hold the 10 day MVA on the close as volume fell very low. Has held up very well in the selling, a stronger stock that we are looking to make a breakout.
Volume: 1.043M Avg Volume: 1.755M
BUY POINT: $46.25 Volume=22M Target=$52.88 Stop=$43.35
POSITION: OAQ HI - Aug. $45c (58 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/apol.html
Play Date: 02/22/2003
BCGI (Boston Communications--$12.86; -0.42; optionable): Wireless communicaitons
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcgi.html
STATUS: Cup. Turned right back down Monday, testing just below the 50 day MVA on the low (12.55) and then bouncing up to hold over the 18 day MVA (12.78) on the close. Volume was up but still well below average. Accumulation during the base has been positive at 2 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume. Just going to have to be patient and let it provide the strong upside move.
Volume: 167.333K Avg Volume: 216.227K
BUY POINT: $13.63 Volume=215K Target=$16.35 Stop=$12.68
POSITION: QGB FE - June $12.50c (67 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bcgi.html
Play Date: 02/19/2003
BMC (BMC Software--$19.09; -0.25; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bmc.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Friday's surge off the 10 day MVA was solid, and the selling Monday took just a small slice of it as volume moved lower on the selling. This looks just to be a better entry point on the next move up.
Volume: 2.236M Avg Volume: 1.833M
BUY POINT: $19.29 Volume=2.5M Target=$23.15 Stop=$18.15
POSITION: BMC HW - Aug. $17.50c (69 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bmc.html
Play Date: 02/04/2003
CGNX (Cognex--$21.87; -0.29; optionable): Scientific & Technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cgnx.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Another nice test of the 18 day MVA on the low (21.65), CGNX was again able to bounce up off of that level on the close. Volume was lower as it sold a fraction, indicating it avoided the day's selling and is simply waiting for that selling to abate to make its move.
Volume: 297.932K Avg Volume: 354.681K
BUY POINT: $23.09 Volume=525K Target=$26.88 Stop=$21.47
POSITION: QCG ED - May $20c (65 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cgnx.html
Play Date: 02/22/2003
LGTO (Legato Systems--$6.1; -0.18; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lgto.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Sold back a hair Friday as the rest of the market sold harder. LGTO held just over the 10 day MVA on the close as volume fell back; it is holding its pattern very well versus the rest of the market. Excellent accumulation since the start of the base at 5 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume. Maintaining its lateral move with solid money flow.
Volume: 1.51M Avg Volume: 1.496M
BUY POINT: $6.42 Volume=2M Target=$8.25 Stop=$5.88
POSITION: EQN IR - Sept. $5c (76 delta, low OI) or EQN FR - June $5c (78 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lgto.html
Play Date: 01/10/2003
MDCO (The Medicines Company--$17.69; -0.23; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mdco.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. Showing it has more starch than most, MDCO held its ground Monday, testing the 10 day MVA on the low (17.40) and bouncing some. It continues to build higher lows below 18, building pressure for a breakout. It is either going to give us the move of give up. With the strong money flow, it looks like the former.
Volume: 577.224K Avg Volume: 504.409K
BUY POINT: New: 18.08 (orig. $17.35) Volume=800K Target=$20.85 Stop=$16.15
POSITION: MQL DV - April $12.50c (64 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mdco.html
Play Date: 02/22/2003
OSTK (Overstock.com--$18.11; +1.55; no options): Specialty retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/ostk.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Nice breakout on some strong volume! Volume: 571.159K Avg Volume: 189.454K
BUY POINT: Riding current positions ($17.05) Volume=275K Target=$20.45 Stop=$16.65
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ostk.html
Play Date: 02/22/2003
POWI (Power Integrations--$21.51; -0.33; optionable): Integrated semiconductor circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/powi.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working in the handle as it holds above the 10 day MVA, bouncing up off that level on the low (21.36). Volume backed off on the modest selling, not bad given the overall market sell off. Just waiting for it to make the move on the back of the 9-month base showing solid 9 to 4 accumulation.
Volume: 319.55K Avg Volume: 525.636K
BUY POINT: $23.05 Volume=750K Target=$27.74 Stop=$21.28
POSITION: QPW GX - July $22.50c (54 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/powi.html
Play Date: 02/18/2003
VRTY (Verity--$15.98; +0.13; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vrty.html
STATUS: Flat. Nice volume surge Monday, but VRTY could not hold the breakout. Very solid action in a selling market, and we look for it to try again.
Volume: 560.22K Avg Volume: 363K
BUY POINT: $16.12 Volume=500K Target=$19.65 Stop=$14.88
POSITION: YQV FC - June $15c (63 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vrty.html
Downside:
Play Date: 02/20/2003
AIG (American Intl. Group--$49.65; -1.16; optionable): P & C Insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aig.html
STATUS: Put. As with many stocks, AIG was in a strong downtrend below its 10 day MVA, then rallied the past two weeks. It tapped at its 18 day MVA (51.10), trying to break the trend. It looks to be failing after several attempts as it turned back Monday and sold to close below the 10 day MVA (49.94). Volume did not move up on the selling, however, something we would like to see as it continues down and through the buy point.
Volume: 5.346M Avg Volume: 6.664M
BUY POINT: $49.48 Volume=6M Target=$46 Stop=$51.25
POSITION: AIG QJ - May $50p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/aig.html
Play Date: 02/18/2003
BEN (Franklin Resources--$32.13; -0.69; optionable): Asset management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/ben.html
STATUS: Put. Turned over at the 18 day MVA (32.80) as expected, falling through the 10 day MVA. This is that similar rally to test the 18 day that fails. Kind of tight for new positions at this point, but 30 is the initial target; it could hit 29 to 28 if the selling gets intense.
Volume: 548.7K Avg Volume: 601.909K
BUY POINT: New: add to at this point (orig. $32.74) Volume=600K Target=$30 Stop=$33.75
POSITION: BEN PG - Apr. $35p (-77 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ben.html
Play Date: 02/19/2003
CCMP (Cabot Microelectronics--$42.58; -0.19; optionable): Special chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ccmp.html
STATUS: Put. Another doji at the 10 day MVA as volume remained below average. Need to see the volume pick up as it moves through the buy point. Again, CCMP's downward moves in the trend can easily cover $10.
Volume: 645.118K Avg Volume: 985.181K
BUY POINT: $42.45 Volume=1.2M Target=$37.12 Stop=$44.22
POSITION: UKR PI - Apr. $45p (-59 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ccmp.html
Play Date: 02/18/2003
ESRX (Express Scripts--$50.45; -0.63; optionable): Mail order prescriptions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esrx.html
STATUS: Put. Struggling at the 50 day MVA (51), ESRX rolled over from that level though volume was down as it did. It managed to hold the 10 day MVA on the close. We want to see volume pick up as it starts down from here and through the buy point.
Volume: 753.831K Avg Volume: 1.326M
BUY POINT: $49.94 Volume=1.2M Target=$46 Stop=$51.24
POSITION: XTQ QJ - May $50p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/esrx.html
Play Date: 02/19/2003
FDS (Factset Research--$25.06; -1.11; optionable): Information and delivery service software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fds.html
STATUS: Put. Did not wait to rally up to 27, but instead rolled over on rising, above average volume. Good enough for us. Now we let it work down for us.
Volume: 355.6K Avg Volume: 264.545K
BUY POINT: Riding current positions ($25.45). Volume=300K Target=$22.12 Stop=$26.45
POSITION: FDS RE - June $25p (-40 delta) or FDS RF - June $30 p (-74 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/fds.html
Play Date: 02/13/2003
EXC (Exelon--$50.2; +0.09; optionable): Utilities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/exc.html
STATUS: Put. Tapping at the 50 day MVA on the high again (50.59) EXC fell back on lower, below average volume after doing so. Looking for more volume as it fails the test.
Volume: 1.034M Avg Volume: 1.275M
BUY POINT: New: $49.65 Volume=1.5M Target=$45.55 Stop=$50.85
POSITION: EXC PJ - April $50p (-56 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/exc.html
Play Date: 02/22/2003
JDEC (J.D. Edwards & Co.--$11.06; -0.13; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jdec.html
STATUS: Put. Did not make the bounce but held 11. Too low to enter here; needs that bounce up to test the 200 day MVA befor ewe enter.
Volume: 1.571M Avg Volume: 1.208M
BUY POINT: After a test of 11.75, $11.60 on the way back down. Volume=1.5M Target=$9 Stop=$12.18
POSITION: QJD QV - May $12.50p (-63 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jdec.html
Play Date: 02/11/2003
JPM (JP Morgan--$22.3; -0.58; optionable): Money bank
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jpm.html
STATUS: Put. Turning over at the 18 day MVA (22.88) though we would like to see stronger volume. As some big financial names are breaking down on rising volume we will look for JPM to pick up steam as it moves through the buy point.
Volume: 7.696M Avg Volume: 9.77M
BUY POINT: $21.74 Volume=12M Target=$18 Stop=$22.85
POSITION: JPM OE - Mar. $25p (-71 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jpm.html
Play Date: 02/22/2003
MANH (Manhatten Assoc.--$21.12; -0.03; optionable): System software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/manh.html
STATUS: Put. Tested the 10 day MVA on the high (21.72) once again and then held up with a doji on lower, average volume. Just waiting for it to fall from here through the buy point.
Volume: 486.215K Avg Volume: 467.59K
BUY POINT: $21.03 Volume=700K Target=$18 Stop=$22.35
POSITION: MQR PX - April 22.50p (-56 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/manh.html
Play Date: 02/11/2003
MI (Marshall & Ilsley--$25.98; -0.54; optionable): Regional bank
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mi.html
STATUS: Put. Tried the 18 day MVA (25.95) yet again and this time rolled over on the strongest volume in three weeks. MI looks to be resuming the downtrend after a test higher to the 18 day MVA, and we wil look for increasing volume as it moves through the buy point.
Volume: 349.4K Avg Volume: 359.818K
BUY POINT: $25.87 Volume=350K Target=$23.35 Stop=$26.85
POSITION: MI OF - Mar. 30p (-96 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mi.html
Play Date: 02/22/2003
PLCM (Polycom--$9.73; -0.27; optionable): Telecom processing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/plcm.html
STATUS: Put. Started down Monday, and though volume was lower than the Friday selling, it was still average. Good start to the move lower. Aggressive positions from here.
Volume: 1.372M Avg Volume: 1.288M
BUY POINT: $9.94 Volume=1.5M Target=$8.5 Stop=$10.52
POSITION: QHD PV - April $12.50p (-84 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/plcm.html
End Part 2 of 3
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us stock market
stock pick
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