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us stock market, top stock pick
Begin Part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Given the uncertainty of war starting early next week we are primarily looking at some upside positions to set up for a war rally given that the market appears aching to move up on the start of hostilities for at least a near term rally. We also are looking at a stock or two for a quick downside move over the next couple of sessions.
Good moves: BMC; CCMP; EV; JEF; MDCO; MWD
Best Plays:
1) SBL: Nice breakout test.
2) BBY: Looks ready to try and make a breakout over the 200 day MVA.
3) CGNX: Still looks ready.
4) LGTO: Nice doji over the 10 day MVA.
5) MDCO: Making the breakout and still looking good.
6) EXC: Breaking through the 200 day MVA.
7) MWD: Turning down at the 10 day MVA on above average volume.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 02/26/2003
SBL (Symbol Technologies--$10.15; -0.17; optionable): Computer peripherals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sbl.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. SBL is testing the breakout from a 3-month double bottom. SBL broke higher on some very strong volume 4 sessions back. It has spent the last three sessions falling back to the breakout point at 10, just over the 10 day MVA (8.61). Accumulation in the base is solid at 3 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume. Very nice test, and it may hit the 10 day MVA before making the rebound.
Volume: 1.953M Avg Volume: 1.31M
BUY POINT: $10.45 Volume=2M Target=$12.25 Stop=$9.72
POSITION: SBL GB - July $10c (59 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sbl.html
Play Date: 02/26/2003
BBY (Best Buy--$27.91; -0.29; optionable): Consumer electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bby.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. We are taking another run at BBY. BBY is in an 11-week base that is tightening up right below the 200 day MVA (28.33) as it continues to build pressure right at the breakout point. Money flow continues to rise ahead of the price, a positive divergence that is another indicator of upside pressure. Accumulation in the base is positive at 2 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume. The stock is poised for an upside breakout on a market catalyst such as a war rally.
Volume: 2.338M Avg Volume: 4.048M
BUY POINT: $28.38 Volume=5M Target=$32.97 Stop=$26.85
POSITION: BBY FE - June $25c (69 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bby.html
Downside:
Play Date: 02/26/2003
MER (Merrill Lynch--$33.36; -0.47; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mer.html
STATUS: Put. MER screamed lower from the lower high made in January, hitting 32 on a move down the short term MVA and then bouncing up to test the 18 day MVA (34.52) with the rest of the market. It is failing that test, dropping below the 10 day MVA (33.98) and failing a test at that level. We are looking to pick it up on a further fall as this is a stock that can make the target in a hurry as the trend picks up speed.
Volume: 4.551M Avg Volume: 5.357M
BUY POINT: $33.08 Volume=8M Target=$30 Stop=$34.65
POSITION: MER PG - Apr. $35p (-64 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mer.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 02/24/2003
ADI (Analog Devices--$27.26; -0.71; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adi.html
STATUS: Testing the 200 day MVA. Still testing the 200 day MVA (27.03), selling back to that level on lower volume as the rest of the market sold. We like ADI as it has already cleared resistance, and with money flow leading the way it can give us a very nice move in a rally.
Volume: 3.148M Avg Volume: 3.056M
BUY POINT: $28.45 Volume=3.5M Target=$32.75 Stop=$26.46
POSITION: ADI FE - June 25c (72 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/adi.html
Play Date: 02/18/2003
APOL (Apollo Group--$44.08; -0.8; optionable): Education and training
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apol.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Still in the pattern, pulling back Wednesday in the general market selling on lower, below average volume. We are not getting turned off by the test of the 50 day; it is still in the pattern. We are just going to be patient and wait for it to give us the move.
Volume: 1.162M Avg Volume: 1.74M
BUY POINT: $46.25 Volume=22M Target=$52.88 Stop=$43.35
POSITION: OAQ HI - Aug. $45c (58 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/apol.html
Play Date: 02/22/2003
BCGI (Boston Communications--$13.13; -0.14; optionable): Wireless communicaitons
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcgi.html
STATUS: Cup. Still forming the cup, moving laterally below 13.50 on very low, below average volume. Money flow is excellent, leading higher even as the stock moves sideways. Accumulation during the base has been positive at 2 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume. Like the constant high, and wireless is looking solid again.
Volume: 86.632K Avg Volume: 211.727K
BUY POINT: $13.63 Volume=215K Target=$16.35 Stop=$12.68
POSITION: QGB FE - June $12.50c (67 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bcgi.html
Play Date: 02/04/2003
CGNX (Cognex--$22; -0.15; optionable): Scientific & Technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cgnx.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Held the 18 day MVA (21.75) on the Tuesday low, and held tough Wednesday in the market selling. It tried to make the move, but pulled back from the high to show a hammer doji. Looks solid and awaiting the breakout.
Volume: 220.58K Avg Volume: 352.5K
BUY POINT: $23.09 Volume=525K Target=$26.88 Stop=$21.47
POSITION: QCG ED - May $20c (65 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cgnx.html
Play Date: 02/24/2003
IRM (Iron Mountain--$33.32; -0.07; optionable): Data and file physical storage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/irm.html
STATUS: Flat. Moving laterally, forming a tight, lateral handle after the nice jump 4 sessions back. Volume has faded on the lateral move just as it should as IRM digests the gain. This is the action we anticipated, and now we wait for it to make the move. Accumulation in the flat base is solid at 4 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume.
Volume: 197.6K Avg Volume: 249.409K
BUY POINT: $33.55 Volume=389K Target=$38.55 Stop=$31.75
POSITION: IRM GF - July 30c (70 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/irm.html
Play Date: 02/22/2003
LGTO (Legato Systems--$6.15; -0.01; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lgto.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Forming a very nice, tight lateral consolidation over the 10 day MVA (26.93), showing a doji Wednesday on top of that level as the market sold off. Excellent accumulation since the start of the base at 5 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume. Money flow continues to rise ahead of the price.
Volume: 1.049M Avg Volume: 1.462M
BUY POINT: $6.42 Volume=2M Target=$8.25 Stop=$5.88
POSITION: EQN IR - Sept. $5c (76 delta, low OI) or EQN FR - June $5c (78 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lgto.html
Play Date: 01/10/2003
MDCO (The Medicines Company--$18.63; +1.06; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mdco.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. After the doji on the 10 day MVA MDCO gave the strong move Wednesday on very solid volume. Excellent breakout with relative strength breaking out as well. It definitely did not give in and is an aggressive buy at this point.
Volume: 1.54M Avg Volume: 479.181K
BUY POINT: New: 18.78 (orig. $17.35, 18.08) Volume=800K Target=$20.85 Stop=$16.15
POSITION: MQL DV - April $12.50c (64 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mdco.html
Play Date: 02/18/2003
VRTY (Verity--$16.44; -0.12; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vrty.html
STATUS: Flat. Made the breakout Tuesday on some outstanding volume. Tried to continue the move Wednesday but faded slightly and on lower volume with the rest of the market. VRTY managed to hold the gain, and it is still a buy on this move.
Volume: 494.209K Avg Volume: 374.954K
BUY POINT: Test of 16: $16.12; From close: 16.62. Volume=500K Target=$19.65 Stop=$14.88
POSITION: YQV FC - June $15c (63 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vrty.html
Play Date: 12/11/2002
YHOO (Yahoo!--$19.71; -0.29; optionable): Internet
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/y/yhoo.html
STATUS: Cup. YHOO rallied well off the 50 day MVA (18.23) up to the January high at 20. It has moved laterally the past three sessions below that level. Volume bucked up Wednesday, close to average. Looking for a breakout over 20 to add to positions.
Volume: 7.834M Avg Volume: 8.05M
BUY POINT: New: $20.06 (orig. $17.32) Volume=20M Target=$22.75 Stop=$17.74
POSITION: YHZ GW - July $17.50c (71 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/yhoo.html
Downside:
Play Date: 02/20/2003
AIG (American Intl. Group--$49.46; -0.86; optionable): P & C Insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aig.html
STATUS: Put. Still struggling below the 18 day MVA (50.86), turning lower Wednesday on rising, slightly above average volume. Looks ready to sell off, and AIG can sell off in a hurry.
Volume: 7.335M Avg Volume: 6.592M
BUY POINT: From here ($49.48) Volume=6M Target=$46 Stop=$51.25
POSITION: AIG QJ - May $50p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/aig.html
Play Date: 02/13/2003
EXC (Exelon--$49.41; -1.04; optionable): Utilities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/exc.html
STATUS: Put. Rolling through the 200 day MVA (49.76) Wednesday. Volume backed off, but it is a good start to the move.
Volume: 1.056M Avg Volume: 1.274M
BUY POINT: New: $49.29 (orig. $49.65) Volume=1.5M Target=$45.55 Stop=$50.85
POSITION: EXC PJ - April $50p (-56 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/exc.html
Play Date: 02/11/2003
MI (Marshall & Ilsley--$26.05; -0.41; optionable): Regional bank
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mi.html
STATUS: Put. Still moving donw the 18 day MVA (26.52), trying that level Tuesday on the rally but failing to take it out. It started lower Wednesday though volume fell off. Still looks entrenched in the downtrend and looks ready to give up this test higher and resume the downtrend.
Volume: 282.2K Avg Volume: 359.545K
BUY POINT: $25.87 Volume=350K Target=$23.35 Stop=$26.85
POSITION: MI OF - Mar. 30p (-96 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mi.html
Play Date: 02/24/2003
MWD (Morgan Stanley--$35.42; -0.75; optionable): Investment brokerages
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mwd.html
STATUS: Put. After testing the 18 day MVA (36.10) Friday and Monday, MWD tried the 10 day MVA (36.15) Tuesday on the short covering and then rolled down Wednesday on lower though continued above average volume. After this test of the 18 day MVA and failed test of the 10 day MVA, it looks as if MWD is ready to head lower and resume the downtrend.
Volume: 4.999M Avg Volume: 4.445M
BUY POINT: New: $35.24 (orig. $35.44) Volume=4.8M Target=$31.94 Stop=$37.02
POSITION: MWD PH - April. $45p (-70 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mwd.html
End Part 2 of 3
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us stock market
top stock pick
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