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yahoo stock, us stock market
Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information.
Best Plays: Some formerly covered stocks are looking good for upside action (PL, DRI) SHOO broke out and we continue to find good patterns for other upside action: WSM, LDG. Watch software for potential downside plays as news prompts potential selling in the sector.
Best Plays:
1) WSM: Ready to move back up in this pattern.
2) LDG: Strong volume can push this one back up in the handle.
3) PL: Looking for a move up on the strong volume.
4) DRI: Ready to move up in its handle.
5) ADBE: In a cup with handle at the bottom of its correction.
6) BJ: A low-volume pullback to support.
7) Puts: CHKP, EBAY, SOX
New Plays:
A trading/range/rolling pattern:
WSM (Williams Sonoma--$26.66; +0.41; optionable (WSM)): Home Furnishings
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wsm.html
STATUS: Trading between a range of 25 and 29, pulling back to test the 50 day MVA (26.29) on its most recent dip back in the pattern, volume dropping quite low to 216,200 (avg. 621,000). The stock showed a doji on the move, so we are looking for a move back up from here. The 200 day MVA is at 28.20, but we look for the roll back up to the 29 level on stronger volume. High in the pattern is 29.92, and we are keeping an eye out for a breakout over that price. Initial target on a breakout: $33-35.
BUY POINT: On a roll back up from here on rising volume. Stop loss: 25.79-26.04. Breakout: 30.05, on volume of 838,000 or better. Stop loss: 29.55-29.80.
POSITION: From here, stock and/or August $22.50 calls to buy (WSM HX; low open interests). Breakout: Stock and/or August $30 calls to buy (WSM HF).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/wsm.html
LDG (Longs Drug Stores--$30.19; +0.63; no options): Retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/ldg.html
STATUS: The stock is ready to move up in its handle (to a 23-month base, prior high of 36.88), trying that move Monday as it hit a high of 31.40 on strong volume (378,400; avg. 139,227). After a rally back up toward the handle high of 31.95, we will look at positions with stock on a breakout. Initial target on that move: $35-37. Outstanding money flow and buying, and relative strength has broken out ahead of price, a bullish sign.
BUY POINT: 32.09, on continued strong volume (min. breakout volume is 209,000). Remains a buy on the breakout up to 33.69. Stop loss: 31.59-31.84.
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ldg.html
KMX (Circuit City/Carmax--$7.64; +0.10; no options): Specialty Retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kmx.html
STATUS: Is testing the breakout from a (long) cup with handle breakout, the stock pulling off a breakout high of 8.52 on steadily decreasing volume (165,800; avg. 122,045). The stock tapped a low of 7.25, above the 10 day MVA (7.01), and moved up to beat the opening price of 7.44, so looks ready to head up from here on a volume rally. The buy point is 6.13, but we don't expect the stock to test lower than the 10 day MVA if it continues to pull back. Initial target on a move back over 8: $9. Huge money flow and good buying. Relative strength is high.
BUY POINT: 8.13, on volume of 224,000 or better.
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/kmx.html
Updated:
PL (Protective Life Corp--$31.20; +0.53; optionable (PL)): Life Insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pl.html
STATUS: Approached the resistance at 32.25 (intraday high was 32.05) and pulled back down to close, as volume shot above average to 438,700 (avg. 242,636). The stock is in a lengthy ascending wedge-type pattern, and has run up to that resistance level (32-32.25) four times since September, posting higher lows since late October. Looking for a move back up as volume continues to surge, for a breakout. The stock shows great money flow, and relative strength has moved out ahead of price. Initial target on a breakout:
BUY POINT: 32.28, on volume of 328,000 or better. Stop loss: 32.78-32.03.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $30 calls to buy (PL GF).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/pl.html
SHOO (Steven Madden--$15.75; +1.06; optionable (SEU)): Textile: Apparel Footwear
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/shoo.html
STATUS: Covered March 26 when the stock looked ready to move up in the handle to its 11-month base. The stock broke out Monday on excellent volume (531,600; avg. 164,500), and remains a buy on the move. On a pullback we will look for a test of the buy point of 15.26 and subsequent move back up. Showing huge money flow, relative strength broke out. Buying is improving. Initial target on the breakout: $17-18.
BUY POINT: Up to 16.02 on continued strong volume. Stop loss from buy point: 14.76-15.01.
POSITION: Stock and/or June $12.50 calls to buy (SEU FV).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/shoo.html
DRI (Darden Restaurants--$24.00; +0.25; optionable (DRI)): Leisure
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dri.html
STATUS: We looked at this one the other day, and it still looks good. In a cup base with an erratic handle, but the price has leveled off after having rolled up and down over the last two weeks. The stock is holding its 10 day MVA (23.69), today staying in its tight recent range while moving on below average volume (619,900; average 779,500). The handle high is ahead at 24.75. The stock shows good money flow and buying, and relative strength is well ahead of price, a bullish sign. Initial breakout target: 28.50.
BUY POINT: 24.88, on volume of 1.17 million. Stop loss: 24.38-24.63.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $22.50 calls to buy (DRI GX).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/dri.html
THE PORTFOLIOS: Each report, we look at these to see which is in a buy position. We don't cover them all each time, just the ones that are looking as if they are ready to pick up a few shares.
THE LEADERS: Some of the new leaders have fallen under the pressure of the bear market and can no longer be considered top picks for such investments (ACS, LLL, NATI, ESRX). We continue to look to stocks like CPN as the new leaders, as they are holding up well. With this in mind, we must reiterate that while we are looking for any of these stocks to once again yield long-term investments when the markets turns, for now the plays for moves up in such stocks should only be considered short-term. We must focus on the stocks that are performing best in a down market as they tend to help lead when the market turns back up.
New Leaders: CPN, SGR (ESRX, NATI, LLL, ACS)
Previous Leaders: ADBE, AMCC, ARBA, BEAS, BRCD, CIEN, EMC, EXTR, GLW, JNPR, NEWP, NTAP, PMCS, SCMR, SEBL, VRSN, VRTS
ADBE can go either way: The pattern looks good, but if the sector has bad news, the stock can break support for a downside play.
ADBE (Adobe Systems--$34.00; -0.97; optionable (AEQ)): Application Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adbe.html
STATUS: ADBE formed a short cup with handle pattern since mid-February, showing decreasing volume throughout the handle (handle high is 37.94). It is at the bottom of its pattern, so it is not a strong stock at this point, but it can give us a decent trading move if it can break out over its 50 day MVA. On volume of 3.9 million (avg. 6 million), the low tapped support at the 18 day MVA (32.84), a level that supported the stock the last two weeks. The 50 day MVA is at 37.57 (just below the handle high). On the high (35.57), the stock tapped at a down trendline that connects Dec/Jan highs. We will see if the stock can pull off a breakout in this market. Initial target: $42-44. For a downside play, we will look at puts on a break of support in market selling for a target of 25 (March lows).
BUY POINT: Breakout: 38.07, on volume of 9 million or better. Stop loss: 37.57-37.82. Downside: Below 32 in market selling.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $30 calls to buy (AEQ GF). Put: May $40 puts to buy (AEQ QH).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/adbe.html
UP & COMERS PORTFOLIOS: We have added some new stocks to this portfolio: LNCR, BJ, ANF, LOW, HI and THQI. We like the patterns and their earnings numbers, and they are holding up in this market. The currently existing members (EXDS, TQNT, BVSN, SANM, PKI and GMST) are on a current watchlist we will continue to monitor for recovery when the market finally emerges from the bear market.
HI (Household International--$59.50; +0.26; optionable (HI)): Credit Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hi.html
STATUS: Holding above the short term moving averages (58.78), the stock tried to break resistance at 61 (intraday high was 60.90) but volume pulled back from Friday's higher numbers to 2.1 million (avg. 2 million), and the stock dropped back to the closing price. The low again tested support at the 50 day MVA (57.84) as it did Thursday. We are looking for another surge in volume to boost the stock back up, and will look at positions with stock or calls to buy on a break over 61. Initial target on that move: $67-70.
BUY POINT: 61.13, on volume of 2.8 million or better. Stop loss: 60.63-60.88.
POSITION: Stock and or July $55 calls to buy (HI GK).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/hi.html
BJ (Bj's Wholesale Club--$46.67; -1.18; optionable (BJ)): Retail: Discount Stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/bj.html
STATUS: Pulled back on lower volume, testing support on the low of 46.15 at the 18 day MVA and closing above the 10 day MVA (46.49). Friday the stock was just under resistance (48) on higher volume (257,400; avg. 695,363), but it wasn't enough to break it to a new high. However, the lower-volume pullback looks good, even though we may see another test of the 18 day MVA before the stock heads up to a new closing high. Money flow and relative strength look great. Initial target for a move over 48: $53-55.
BUY POINT: Over 48, on volume of 347,000 or better. Stop loss: 47.50-47.75.
POSITION: Stock and/or June $45 calls to buy (BJ FI).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/bj.html
ANF (Abercrombie & Fitch Co--$32.57; -0.13; optionable (ANF)): Retail: Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anf.html
STATUS: Continues to pull back on decreasing volume (988,200; avg. 1.6 million), squeezing down onto support at the 18 day MVA (32.60). The low tapped near support at 32, as it did Friday. ANF is in a long base, pulling back from a March high of 35.79 on lower volume throughout the pullback. The stock can pop up from here on a volume surge if it can get it; otherwise, a more extended pullback may be in order as a longer handle is formed (that is more proportionate to the length of this base). Initial target on a breakout over the March high: $39-41.
BUY POINT: 35.92, on volume of 2.4 million or better. Stop loss: 35.42-35.67.
POSITION: Stock and/or August $32.50 calls to buy (ANF HZ).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/anf.html
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: BRCM, CHKP, CSCO, EMLX, IDTI, INTC, JDSU, MVSN, NT, PWER, SUNW, VTSS
No reports on these stocks this weekend.
PUT PLAYS: Software may be in for some selling on potential bad news, and we continue to watch the indices for downside, as they have been quite lucrative of late. As always, keep reasonable loss cutting rules in place, be ready to close positions quickly if necessary, and make sure you see the downside move, along with the market going down as well, and then enter.
New Puts:
BGEN (Biogen--$61.50; -1.81; optionable (BGQ)): Biotechnoloy
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bgen.html
STATUS: Crossed below the 200 day MVA (61.67) on stronger volume, the stock downgraded by Lehman Monday. On a move below the intraday low of 60.63 on continued selling volume, we will look at puts on a move down to 55 or lower (March low is 52.88). Volume was 4 million (avg. 3.5 million).
BUY POINT: Below 60 on continued rising volume. The stock may gap lower; watch for a possible move back up to test the opening price, entering with positions on a move back down from there on selling.
POSITION: May $70 puts to buy (BGQ QN).
Continued Puts: Let them set up and make the moves as described. Don't jump the gun, just be patient and let them come to you.
CHKP (Check Point Software--$46.88; -0.62; optionable (KEQ)):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chkp.html
STATUS: After the stock was hit with selling last week that sent price down hard from the 10 day MVA (currently at 52.19), CHKP has consolidated laterally for 2 days. Volume decreased those two days, falling Monday to 11.2 million (avg. 10.3 million), and the stock showed a tight doji near the low of 45.81 (high is 50). The stock can move back up to test the level of the intraday high, or the 10 day MVA, but in market weakness can turn down from the resistance again. On a break below the closing low at 45.31 (Thursday), we will look at buying puts.
BUY POINT: Below 45 on above average volume in market selling, May $60 puts to buy (KEQ QL).
EBAY (Ebay Inc--$35.31; -0.88; optionable (QXB)): Internet Software & Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ebay.html
STATUS: Tested the 35 support on the low as volume decreased to 4.4 million (avg. 5.2 million). EBAY remains in the right shoulder of its head and shoulders pattern, being held back by the 10 day and 18 day MVAs (36.11 and 36.76, respectively). On a break of support, the aggressive can look at puts as the stock sells from there; the safer play is below 30 (lower support in the pattern in the left shoulder) in market selling.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: On a move below 34 on rising volume in market selling. Watch the 31 range if volume is light on the move down. Safer: Below 30 on above average and rising volume.
POSITION: Aggressive: May $45 puts to buy (QXB QJ).
DJX (1/100 Dow Jones--$97.78; -1.01; optionable (DJV)):
STATUS: Tested back over the 18 day MVA (99.36) up to 100 and then rolled over. That is the move we were looking for, though selling was on lower volume (1.21 million, about average). We will see if it tests the 10 day MVA (just ahead now at 98.16), and on a move back down we will look at new short positions.
BUY POINT: On a move down from here, after a possible test of the 10 day MVA, with stronger selling volume.
POSITION: May $104 puts to buy (DJV QZ).
SOX (Phili Semiconductor Index--$503.17; -41.87; optionable (SJX)):
STATUS: Just got creamed, dropping hard though the 535, the level of the neckline of the head-and-shoulders pattern, and its December and March lows in the 525 range. From here, the index can potentially fall another 200 points or more (although not at once); we said that Saturday, and upon another look we see that it is still possible now. We are still looking at put positions on a continued move down or after a test of 515. From here, we are looking at a target of 475.
BUY POINT: On a continued move down in market selling, May $540 puts to buy (SJX QH) (check delta, etc. with your broker).
OEX (Standard & Poors 100--$584.40; -7.23; optionable (OEB)):
STATUS: Moved down from the 10 day MVA (590.17) on lower volume (1.2 million; just over average), after the index opened just above that level. The low tested 579.47. We will look at puts on a move down in market selling, as the index breaks below 577 (Thursday's low) or on a test of the 590 level. Target: 570 or lower (March low is 548.16).
BUY POINT: Aggressive: On a move back down from here, in market selling. Test: After a test of 590 and a fall from there.
POSITION: April $590 puts to buy (OEB PR)
Good Investing!
Jon Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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yahoo stock
us stock market
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