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stock watch, stock split
Begin Part 3 of 3
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/25/2003
AAII (Aia Pharmaceuticals--$21.72; -0.18; no options): Medical labs. Splits 3:2 on 3-11-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aaii.html
STATUS: Still working laterally to consolidate that big move higher 7 sessions back. Very nice, tight lateral move laterally as volume has dried up. Volume ran up Friday some, but it still looks as if the stock has some more lateral movement to work through. As it approaches the split this week we will watch for it to start its move and jump on.
Volume: 274.69K Avg Volume: 247.794K
BUY POINT: $22.05 Volume=372K Target=$25.94 Stop=$20.51
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/aaii.html
Play Date: 01/27/2003
BRL (Barr Labs--$77.91; +0.9; optionable): Generic drugs. Announced a 3:2 split 2-18-03, effective 3-18-03.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brl.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. Moving well up off the 18 day MVA (75.85), BRL just cleared resistance at eh recent February high. Could use more volume on the move, but as a pre-split that is not that important. Still in the buy zone as it just cleared that resistance (77.70).
Volume: 396K Avg Volume: 669.662K
BUY POINT: New: 78.05 (orig. 77.78). Volume=875K Target=$88 Stop=$72.34
POSITION: BRL EO - May $75c (66 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/brl.html
Play Date: 03/01/2003
XTO (XTO Energy--$25.21; +0.41; optionable): Independent oil and gas. Splits 4:3 on 3-19-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
STATUS: XTO rallied sharply off of 23 two weeks back, hitting 26 on that run. It has come back last week to test that move, holding the 10 day MVA on the Friday low (25.02) and bouncing slightly. This is good action to set up the next pre-split run, though it may take another day or two at this level before it is ready given that it just now fell back.
Volume: 678.3K Avg Volume: 809.5K
BUY POINT: $25.55 Volume=1.2M Target=$28.75 Stop=$24.33
POSITION: XTO EX - May $22.50c (91 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xto.html
POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/18/2003
APOL (Apollo Group--$46.34; +0.87; optionable): Education and training
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apol.html
STATUS: Breakout. APOL has put together back to back strong moves off the 50 day MVA, making our buy point Friday on a solid volume move. It has rallied over $2 the past two sessions, so we might see it come back quickly to test 46, but would not be surprised to see its momentum carry it higher for another session first. APOL is such a strong mover and leader we were excited to see the move up last week. Any test that holds 46 the next few sessions is a good entry point.
Volume: 2.09M Avg Volume: 1.839M
BUY POINT: Still a buy from here on a continued move, then a test toward 46 after that (orig. $46.25). Volume=22M Target=$52.88 Stop=$43.35
POSITION: OAQ HI - Aug. $45c (58 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/apol.html
Play Date: 02/15/2003
ESI (ITT Educational--$26.95; +0.45; optionable): Education and training
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esi.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. ESI broke from a 9-month double bottom base in January, raced ahead to 28, and is now testing that move. It has spent that past two weeks moving along the short term MVA just over 26. Friday ESI started higher, moving up on rising, above average volume with many of the education stocks. Looks ready to move through the buy point, and we want to see it on volume. Excellent accumulation with money flow leading the way higher.
Volume: 441K Avg Volume: 367.456K
BUY POINT: $27.15 Volume=509K Target=$32.12 Stop=$25.05
POSITION: ESI GE - July $25c (64 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/esi.html
Play Date: 02/24/2003
EXPD (Expeditors Intl.--$34.19; +0.14; optionable): Air freight
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/expd.html
STATUS: Cup. After moving laterally for the past week just below 34, EXPD started moving late last week as volume pushed easily above average. You love to see volume swell like this ahead of a breakout. Friday EXPD tried to start the move, hitting 34.79 on the high but then rolling back for just a fractional gain as volume hit a high for the week. Still like it very much, and this volume the past week makes it all the more appealing. Accumulation is positive in the base at 3 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume.
Volume: 1.447M Avg Volume: 842.696K
BUY POINT: $34.25 Volume=1.1M Target=$39.49 Stop=$32.45
POSITION: URP HG - Aug. $35c (45 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/expd.html
Play Date: 02/22/2003
FIC (Fair Isaac & Co.--$48.84; +0.94; optionable): Management services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fic.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. FIC broke from a 9-month base in January, though that move was part of a long run from the October bottom at 30. It has now moved laterally the past month, working on lower, below average volume the past two weeks. Friday FIC rallied off the 10 day MVA just below 48 as volume spiked to above average levels. It cleared the mid-February high on the move, and it is still a buy here.
Volume: 504.4K Avg Volume: 462.258K
BUY POINT: New: 48.95 (orig. $48.78) Volume=550K Target=$53.65 Stop=$46.55
POSITION: FIC GJ - July $50c (48 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fic.html
Play Date: 02/25/2003
JAH (Jarden--$26.81; -0.05; no options): Rubber and plastics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jah.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Still in the very nice pullback to test the 10 day MVA, showing its second consecutive doji at that level (26.75), looking very orderly and steady. The pullback has occurred on very light volume as JAH works to position itself for another move higher. A market leader the past year, JAH needed this 6-month base to consolidate the strong move higher.
Volume: 45.7K Avg Volume: 116.849K
BUY POINT: $27.69 Volume=1.6M Target=$32 Stop=$26.15
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jah.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
$SOX 02/24 Put 297.63 +8.05 285.95 251 0 0 292
Exited. Broke over the 50 day MVA and the down trendline so we closed it out.
AAII 02/25 PreSplt 21.72 -0.18 22.05 25.94 275K 372K 20.51
Buy Not Issued.
AIG 02/20 Put 49.29 -1.17 49.48 46 9.6M 6M 51.25
Buy Not Issued. Turning down from the 18 day MVA on a surge in above average volume.
ALN 01/18 Test BO 13.15 0 13.41 16.85 697K 450K 12.25
Buy Not Issued.
ALN 11/09 Test BO 13.15 0 7.28 14 697K 200K 12.45
Current. Very tight pattern on the 10 day MVA with a nice above average volume surge.
AMZN 01/09 Test 50 22.01 +0.39 22.72 27.25 4.7M 13M 20.75
Buy Not Issued.
AMZN 10/21 Cup hdl 22.01 +0.39 20.32 24.38 4.7M 10M 20.75
Current. Showing some life along the 50 day, but needs to clear 22 on some rising volume.
APOL 02/18 A Wedge 46.34 +0.87 46.25 52.88 2.1M 22M 43.35
Current.
ARRO 02/15 Test 50 40.67 +0.01 42.12 48.42 29K 55K 39.65
Buy Not Issued.
ASKJ 12/26 Cup hdl 6.89 +0.29 2.89 8 1.6M 305K 6.08
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA Wednesday and now rallying on rising volume. An add to or buy at this point.
ASL 02/04 Cup hdl 6.44 +0.14 6.65 8.15 452K 700K 6.18
Current. Tested the 50 day MVA and starting bakc up.
AVCT 02/13 Test BO 27.82 -0.13 28.45 31.15 615K 725K 26.46
Current. Nice test of the 10 day MVA on lower volume, showing a doji and looks ready to move back up.
BCGI 02/22 Cup 12.78 -0.19 13.63 16.35 91K 215K 12.68
Buy Not Hit. Struggling some but still at the 50 day MVA.
BHE 02/11 Test BO 34.84 +0.75 35.75 41.12 453K 500K 33.25
Buy Not Issued. Holding 34 in the pattern.
BMC 02/19 Cup hdl 19.4 +0.42 19.29 23.15 2M 2.5M 18.15
Current. Held the test of the 18 day MVA and started up off the 10 day Friday. Needs some more volume.
BRL 01/27 Test 18 77.91 +0.9 77.78 88 396K 875K 72.34
Still moving up off the test of the 18 day MVA but needs some volume.
CCU 02/24 Put 36.51 +0.99 35.77 31.75 3.1M 4.8M 37.15
Buy Not Issued.
CECO 02/15 Cup hdl 46.5 +0.64 48.07 54 421K 1.4M 45.74
Buy Not Hit.
CGNX 02/04 DB hdl 22.7 +0.14 23.09 26.88 274K 525K 21.47
Buy Not Issued.
CKFR 01/28 Cup hdl 20.98 +0.51 20.85 25 1.3M 2M 18.94
Buy Not Hit.
COH 02/25 Flat 35.73 +1.24 35.5 41.25 1.8M 1.3M 33.02
Current. Super move continues and it finally gave another volume surge Friday.
COO 02/22 Cup 29.05 +0.71 28.55 32.75 693K 706K 26.55
Buy Not Issued.
CRAY 02/25 BO 8.53 +0.15 8.32 9.97 1.6M 1.1M 7.74
Buy Not Issued. Big tombstone doji on high volume indicates a turn back down to test near 8.
CVD 12/21 Cup hdl 23.55 +0.6 24.75 29.74 506K 581K 24.25
Current. Tapped the 50 day MVA on the high on volume but fell back to close below that level.
CVD 11/05 Test BO 23.55 +0.6 23.65 28 506K 581K 24.88
Current.
DAKT 02/24 Test BO 16.24 -0.39 16.12 19.35 188K 227K 15.45
Current. Tried to run Friday but turned back lower on some rising, slightly above average volume.
DNEX 02/27 BO 33.22 -0.25 33.55 38.58 86K 150K 31.94
Buy Not Issued. Tried to make its move Friday, but reversed to close lower. Volume was not there as it was Thursday.
EAT 02/11 Put 27.72 +0.14 28.7 25.74 551K 750K 28.94
Exited.
ERES 01/30 Cup hdl 21.04 +0.01 21.55 24.45 521K 436K 20.05
Current. Big reach down to 20 intraday and a rally back to hold the 18 day MVA on the close wirh rising volume.
ESI 02/15 Test BO 26.95 +0.45 27.15 32.12 441K 509K 25.05
Buy Not Issued.
ESRX 02/18 Put 51.72 -0.2 49.35 36 924K 1.2M 51.55
Exited.
EXC 02/13 Put 49.15 -0.54 49.65 45.55 1.3M 1.5M 50.85
Buy Not Issued.
EXPD 02/24 Cup 34.19 +0.14 34.25 39.49 1.4M 1.1M 32.45
Current.
EXPE 02/22 PreSplt 69.79 +1.53 67.97 76.45 2.9M 3M 64.94
Current.
EXPE 11/30 A Wedge 69.79 +1.53 78.25 88 2.9M 3.2M 64.94
Current. Continuing the above average volume move off the 50 day MVA. Nice.
FBC 02/01 Cup hdl 24.25 -0.23 23.85 26.85 105K 199K 22.38
Buy Not Issued.
FBC 01/07 Cup hdl 24.25 -0.23 23.35 26.85 105K 199K 23.74
Current. Holding the 10 day MVA on the close. Nothing spectacular, just still moving up.
FCN 02/20 A Wedge 43 -0.57 42.96 48.38 233K 400K 40.15
Buy Not Issued. Testing the 10 day MVA as it pulls back on lower volume. Should hold here.
FDS 02/19 Put 25.59 +0.59 25.45 22.12 302K 300K 26.45
Exited.
FE 02/24 Put 29.5 +0.18 29.44 27.03 985K 1.4M 30.46
Buy Not Issued. Doji on higher volume that tapped the 18 day MVA on the high. Looks ready to fall.
FIC 02/22 Test 18 48.84 +0.94 48.78 53.65 504K 550K 46.55
Current. Rallying off the 10 day MVA on a nice surge of rising, above average volume.
GG 01/18 A Wedge 11.44 +0.3 13.68 16.45 1.1M 2.9M 12.72
Buy Not Hit.
HAR 03/01 Saucer 63.53 +1.83 63.74 72 570K 435K 59.28
New.
HPQ 03/01 Put 15.85 +0.31 15.62 13 12M 14M 16.32
New.
ICST 02/27 DB hdl 23.86 +0.76 23.31 27 2.1M 2M 21.68
Buy Not Hit. Another nice surge on above average volume.
IMCL 03/01 Test BO 13.33 +0.1 13.68 15.75 829K 2M 12.72
New.
INSP 02/08 Cup hdl 11.6 -0.18 11.65 13.85 257K 425K 10.85
Current. Testing the 10 day MVA on lower volume after the nice bounce higher.
JAH 02/25 A Wedge 26.81 -0.05 27.69 32 46K 1.6M 26.15
Buy Not Hit.
JDEC 02/22 Put 11.99 +0.31 11.6 9 924K 1.5M 12.18
Buy Not Issued.
JEF 02/15 Put 36.94 +0.84 38 34.08 216K 210K 38.48
Exited.
KLAC 01/30 Put 35.75 +0.62 31.55 28.75 8.4M 15M 33.25
Exited.
LGTO 02/22 A Wedge 5.93 +0.26 6.42 8.25 3.3M 2M 5.88
Buy Not Hit. Volume is surging, but the stock is not though it is holding the pattern.
LLTC 03/01 BO 30.67 +1.02 31.21 35.12 6.9M 7M 29.03
New.
LUV 01/23 Put 12.07 +0.02 13.65 11.51 1.4M 3M 12.88
Exited.
MYL 01/22 Test BO 28.55 +0.62 26.57 31.88 1.9M 1.2M 26.88
Current. Really starting to surge off the short term MVA on rising, above average volume.
PFCB 02/13 Put 33.12 +0.79 31.8 27.15 589K 700K 33.25
Exited.
PNRA 02/12 Put 27.5 +0.1 27.48 24 680K 1.2M 29
Buy Not Issued.
PRX 02/08 BO 37.45 +1.3 34.65 40.45 642K 435K 34.15
Blasting higher on a huge volume surge.
QCOM 12/04 Test 18 34.58 +0.36 40.85 50 13M 18M 37
Current. Rallied up to the 18 day MVA on the high and reversed, still unable to break the recent trend. If it cannot rally with the next market pop higher it is an exit.
QCOM 11/07 Test BO 34.58 +0.36 34.78 42 13M 18M 37
Current.
QLGC 11/07 Test BO 35.41 +1.61 41.4 50 8.5M 25M 39.88
Very nice surge on rising volume Friday after making a higher
low above 32.50. Needs to get over 37.50 to have a real chance to move higher.
QSII 01/30 BO 25.32 -0.89 24.5 29 33K 55K 24.68
Current. That low volume move up the short term MVA gave way to some low volume selling Friday that closed it at the 18 day MVA.
RHD 11/30 Cup hdl 31 +0.13 30.17 25.94 237K 267K 30.25
Current. Nice volume surge again Friday (good one Wednesday), pushing it to resistance @ 31.25. Needs to clear it this time.
RNBO 02/27 DB hdl 8.23 +0.04 8.45 10.25 122K 161K 7.86
Buy Not Hit.
ROL 02/01 PreSplt 31.58 +0.08 29.45 33.75 54K 85K 30.02
Still working up the 10 day MVA after a strong upside volume
surge Thursday.
SBL 02/26 Test BO 10.58 +0.35 10.45 12.25 2.4M 2M 9.72
Current. Nice move on some continued rising, above average volume.
SYMC 01/09 Test 50 40.47 -6.89 46.3 51 45M 4.1M 45.45
Current. Dove on massive volume on some overreaction to comments made at an analyst conference. Looking for a bounce back up toward 44.
TTC 02/25 Test BO 68.79 +0.48 68.85 76.55 86K 137K 65.35
Buy Not Issued.
VAR 12/18 Rv H&S 50.55 +0.24 50.25 58 699K 700K 49.15
Current. Still holding the 50 day MVA, posting a modest gain Friday on a nice volume surge. We will see if this volume leads to a solid bounce. It needs to here.
VIA 02/15 Put 37.21 +0.35 37.05 33.85 205K 485K 38.35
Buy Not Issued. Still trending down, testing the 18 day MVA Friday on low volume and falling back. If it cannot rally with a market pop it is ready.
VSEA 02/26 Put 25.75 -0.27 25.65 22 1.6M 1M 27.15
Buy Not Issued.
WB 01/29 Put 35.48 +0.21 35.28 32.05 2.9M 3.5M 36.05
Exited.
WCN 02/22 Put 33.28 +0.58 33.38 30 104K 425K 34.35
Buy Not Issued. Bouncing up on very light volume to test the short term MVA. If it does not move over these levels in a rally it will be ready.
WFR 02/22 Flat 9.23 +0.21 9.35 11.25 146K 217K 8.59
Buy Not Hit. Still solid in the pattern, just needing some volume to break it out.
XTO 03/01 PreSplt 25.21 +0.41 25.55 28.75 678K 1.2M 24.33
New.
ZMH 02/06 DB hdl 44.39 -0.44 42.65 50.88 1.6M 1.6M 43.15
Current. Spent the last part of the week testing the super move, pulling back on some lighter volume. Looking for a test of 44 to send it back up.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock watch
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