|
|
trade stock, stock watch
Begin Part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
Best Plays:
1) CNCT: Very nice test of the breakout with a nice volume spike Friday.
2) MVL: Nice breakout on volume.
3) RNR: Weak bounce to the 10 day MVA, showing a doji.
4) APSG: Making the move on strong volume.
5) MEDI: Looks ready for the move.
6) SBL: Took a breather.
7) CCU: Turning over on rising volume.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/03/2003
CNCT (Connetics--$14.59; -0.06; optionable): Drug manufacturer
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cnct.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. CNCT is currently testing the 10 day MVA (14.48), holding tight on that level the past four sessions. This follows a breakout from a 13-month pattern that sported solid 13 to 3 accumulation (13 up weeks on rising volume to 3 down weeks on rising volume). Accumulation has really kicked into high gear the past two months and money flow is quite strong. Thursday CNCT threw a huge volume spike; we call those 'get ready' spikes during a consolidation. Very solid, and now we wait for the breakout.
Volume: 160.5K Avg Volume: 184.727K
BUY POINT: $14.88 Volume=210K Target=$17.88 Stop=$13.84
POSITION: UXU GV - July $12.50c (80 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cnct.html
Play Date: 03/03/2003
MVL (Marvel Enterprises--$11.75; +0.57; optionable): Toys and games
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mvl.html
STATUS: Breakout. MVL broke to a 5-year high Monday on a big volume surge. We looked at MVL earlier this year, but it got the dips. It managed to hold on the 50 day MVA (10.21), rallying off that level, but on low volume. Volume finally kicked in Monday, however, as MVL shot higher. After peaking in January MVL moved laterally to consolidate its earlier gains, showing solid accumulation at 3 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume. Relative strength breakout along with money supply shooting higher.
Volume: 1.574M Avg Volume: 492.227K
BUY POINT: $11.82 Volume=675K Target=$14.25 Stop=$10.74
POSITION: MVL FB - June $10c (77 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mvl.html
Play Date: 03/03/2003
TRMB (Trimble Navigation--$17.53; +0.78; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trmb.html
STATUS: Breakout. Monday TRMB broke from a 5-week ascending triangle that follows on the heels of a reverse head and shoulders breakout in mid-January. Accumulation in the reverse head and shoulders pattern up through the triangle is solid at 14 to 0. We really like these base on base patterns with the triangle on top; they often lead to much further gains. Volume was a bit low Monday, coming in below average after surging up to average Friday. If the volume comes in it is ready.
Volume: 159.99K Avg Volume: 182.045K
BUY POINT: $17.75 Volume=272K Target=$21.28 Stop=$16.44
POSITION: TRQ FC - June $15c (81 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/trmb.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/03/2003
RNR (Renaissance Holdings--$37.2; +0.12; optionable): P&C Insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rnr.html
STATUS: Put. RNR peaked in October and has trended lower since. It tanked below the 200 day MVA at 38 a week back and has now managed a rebound up to the 200 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Monday it tapped the 200 day MVA on the high and gave almost the entire gain, showing a big tombstone doji. Under distribution and money flow is tanking.
Volume: 345.5K Avg Volume: 400.181K
BUY POINT: $36.96 Volume=435K Target=$33.85 Stop=$38.05
POSITION: RNR SH - July $40p (-64 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rnr.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 02/24/2003
ADI (Analog Devices--$27.9; -1.26; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adi.html
STATUS: Testing the 200 day MVA. Okay, ADI gives up the nice Friday move, falling back to the 10 day MVA on the low (27.70). Still in a good pattern for a bounce even giving up the move as volume dropped on the pullback as it still holds the breakout. Now looking for techs to stabilize and then ADI to bounce on continued strong volume.
Volume: 3.669M Avg Volume: 3.113M
BUY POINT: $28.45 Volume=3.5M Target=$32.75 Stop=$26.46
POSITION: ADI FE - June 25c (72 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/adi.html
Play Date: 12/28/2002
APSG (Applied Signal--$13.66; +0.27; no options): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apsg.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Good move up from the test, jumping off 13 on some excellent volume. Mostly a gap higher, but at a new 25-month high. Still a buy here.
Volume: 138.555K Avg Volume: 50.818K
BUY POINT: New: $13.72 (orig. $13.25). Volume=85K Target=$15.55 Stop=$12.04
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/apsg.html
Play Date: 02/26/2003
BBY (Best Buy--$28.77; -0.3; optionable): Consumer electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bby.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Gapped higher Monday but then rolled back down to negative on rising though continued above average volume. Still a solid pattern, just got caught up in the market selling. Accumulation in the base is positive at 2 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume. May test back to 28 and then rebound. That is where we look for it again.
Volume: 3.506M Avg Volume: 4.008M
BUY POINT: New: $29.25 (orig. $28.38). Volume=5M Target=$32.97 Stop=$26.85
POSITION: BBY FE - June $25c (69 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bby.html
Play Date: 02/04/2003
CGNX (Cognex--$22.28; -0.42; optionable): Scientific & Technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cgnx.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Tried to make the breakout Monday, gapping higher and running even higher. It reversed, however, with volume moving back above average. Don't necessarily like the reversal on the breakout attempt, but it managed to hold the 10 day MVA on the low (22.22), and it is still in the pattern. Excellent accumulation and money flow continue.
Volume: 487.332K Avg Volume: 356.454K
BUY POINT: $23.09 Volume=525K Target=$26.88 Stop=$21.47
POSITION: QCG ED - May $20c (65 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cgnx.html
Play Date: 03/01/2003
DISH (Echostar--$25.95; -0.38; optionable): Satellite systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dish.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Tried the breakout Monday, rallying to 27.15 on the high but then getting some cold feet ahead of the earnings announcement coming Tuesday. It held the 18 day MVA on the low (25.76) and rebounded slightly to close. Volume remained below average on the move as DISH remains in its pattern. Still in the 2-month handle to the 10-month base showing solid accumulation at 10 up weeks on rising volume to 7 down weeks on rising volume. The past two months accumulation is 2 to 0. Money flow is out ahead of the price as it moves laterally. Still watching earnings as the possible catalyst to break it out.
Volume: 3.057M Avg Volume: 3.592M
BUY POINT: $27.05 Volume=4.8M Target=$31.12 Stop=$25.16
POSITION: UAB FE - June $25c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dish.html
Play Date: 03/01/2003
IMCL (Imclone--$14.35; +1.02; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/imcl.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Very nice breakout on strong volume Monday as the nice lateral consolidation gave way to demand. Very nice. The solid accumulation at 5 to 0 (5 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume) set the stage. Positions can still be taken.
Volume: 4.565M Avg Volume: 1.498M
BUY POINT: New: 14.48 (orig. $13.68) Volume=2M Target=$16.72 Stop=$12.72
POSITION: QCI HV - Aug. $12.50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/imcl.html
Play Date: 03/01/2003
MCHP (Microchip--$24.25; -1.2; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mchp.html
STATUS: Breaking downtrend. Right back below the down trendline, managing to hold at the 50 day MVA as volume backed off back to below average levels. The lower volume was a plus along with the fact it held the 50 day even with the price drop. Very solid money flow still. We will watch closely to see if MCHP can make the turn back up.
Volume: 3.461M Avg Volume: 4.25M
BUY POINT: $25.78 Volume=5.5M Target=$29.65 Stop=$23.98
POSITION: QMT GE - July $25c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mchp.html
Play Date: 02/27/2003
MEDI (Medimmune--$29.91; -0.1; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/medi.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. MEDI jumped higher Monday but as with the market, it fell back. We waited to see if it would hold and when it did not we decided to let it pass. Volume was up on the session but a bit below average. Solid accumulation since August, coming in at 7 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume. Don't like the reversal, but do like that it held the pattern. We will continue to be patient and let it make the move for us.
Volume: 3.94M Avg Volume: 4.159M
BUY POINT: $30.25 Volume=6M Target=$34.84 Stop=$28.13
POSITION: MEQ FF - June $30c (53 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/medi.html
Play Date: 02/15/2003
NATI (National Instruments--$33.61; -0.07; optionable): Computer peripherals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nati.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Still working laterally in the 3-month base, moving on very low volume the past week as trade tightens up just over the 50 day MVA (32.97). Money flow continues to move up ahead of the price.
Volume: 141.847K Avg Volume: 227.09K
BUY POINT: $34.05 Volume=425K Target=$39 Stop=$32.45
POSITION: SJQ FF - June $30c (71 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nati.html
Play Date: 02/26/2003
SBL (Symbol Technologies--$10.53; -0.05; optionable): Computer peripherals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sbl.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Nice move Friday, and SBL tried to continue the run Monday but turned back to hold flat. Volume was still above average, but backed off. Strong accumulation and money flow and solid accumulation at 3 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume. It took a breather Monday, and we await the next move.
Volume: 2.018M Avg Volume: 1.361M
BUY POINT: New: $10.65 (orig. $10.45). Volume=2M Target=$12.25 Stop=$9.72
POSITION: SBL GB - July $10c (59 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sbl.html
Play Date: 02/27/2003
SLAB (Silicon Labs--$26.5; -0.62; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slab.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Tried to make the run Monday, rallying to 28 on the high and then reversing on rising, above average volume. That is the volume we wanted to see Friday on that move over the trendline. It managed to hold over the 10 day MVA at 26, but the higher volume is a concern; one of the chips that rolled back on stronger trade. Still has the good accumulation in the base at 3 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume, but needs to hold above 26 and give a strong upside move.
Volume: 1.313M Avg Volume: 1.136M
BUY POINT: $26.94 Volume=1.7M Target=$31.28 Stop=$25.05
POSITION: QFJ GE - July $25c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/slab.html
Play Date: 03/01/2003
SSYS (Stratasys--$11.34; -0.19; no options): Computer peripherals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/ssys.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Was running hard early on strong volume, but could not hang on, turning in a small loss on rising, above average volume. Still in the pattern, and we will look for SSYS to hold near 11 and then try the next breakout move. Accumulation in the recent base is 2 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume; solid accumulation on top of great accumulation in the prior base. Money flow continues to run higher.
Volume: 172.775K Avg Volume: 63.045K
BUY POINT: $11.64 Volume=110K Target=$13.97 Stop=$10.62
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ssys.html
Downside:
Play Date: 02/24/2003
CCU (Clear Channel Communications--$35.77; -0.74; optionable): Radio broadcasting
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ccu.html
STATUS: Put. CCU tried to move over the 18 day MVA on the Monday high and then rolled over on some rising though still below average volume. It looks to continue its downtrend after failing this test, but we want to see the volume continue to climb as it moves lower.
Volume: 3.247M Avg Volume: 3.383M
BUY POINT: $35.77 Volume=4.8M Target=$31.75 Stop=$37.15
POSITION: CCU PG - Apr. $35p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ccu.html
Play Date: 02/13/2003
EXC (Exelon--$49.26; +0.11; optionable): Utilities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/exc.html
STATUS: Put. Still struggling at the 18 and 200 day MVA, tapping those levels on the high (49.79) and turning back down. Volume was up Friday when it failed at these levels, but was lower Monday as it again struggled. Need to see stronger volume on the next move down.
Volume: 807.2K Avg Volume: 1.296M
BUY POINT: New: $48.97 (orig $49.65) Volume=1.5M Target=$45.55 Stop=$50.85
POSITION: EXC PJ - April $50p (-56 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/exc.html
Play Date: 03/01/2003
HPQ (Hewlett-Packard--$15.86; +0.01; optionable): Computers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hpq.html
STATUS: Put. HPQ moved up just as we expected to test the 200 day MVA on the open (16.10); it even managed to rally above that level on the high (16.20), but could not hold the move. It rolled over but volume backed off to below average as it did. Lots of distribution with money flow tanking. Looking for more volume on the move lower.
Volume: 9.359M Avg Volume: 11.315M
BUY POINT: $15.62 Volume=14M Target=$13 Stop=$16.32
POSITION: HHY QW - May $17.50c (-68 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hpq.htm
End Part 2 of 3
|
trade stock
stock watch
|
