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trade stock, stock split
Begin Part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/04/2003
ADVP (AdvancePCS--$27.80; +0.04; optionable): Health management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/advp.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Working in a 5-week handle to its 10-month base showing outstanding accumulation at 10 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume. It tested the 50 day MVA (26.60) on the low of the base and rebounded to continue the base. It has been holding over the 18 day MVA (27.51) the last week on below average volume. It has held up well to form this handle, and now we sit back and wait for the breakout.
Volume: 990.662K Avg Volume: 1.2M
BUY POINT: $28.55 Volume=1.8M Target=$32.84 Stop=$26.55
POSITION: QVD FY - June $27.50c (57 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/advp.html
New Post-splits
Play Date: 03/04/2003
GSOF (Group 1 Software--$16.42; -0.17; no options): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gsof.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. GSOF split in early December, and after a run up to 17.50, it has formed the current 7-week base showing excellent accumulation at 4 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume. It is currently starting what looks to be a handle, a lateral and slightly lower move on lower volume. We wait for it to move over the handle high (right at 17) on a good volume surge, then move in. Relative strength is breaking out and money flow is surging higher.
Volume: 120.7K Avg Volume: 109.363K
BUY POINT: $17.05 Volume=164K Target=$20.55 Stop=$15.86
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gsof.html
Play Date: 03/04/2003
UOPX (University of Phoenix Online--$37.2; +0.24; optionable): Internet education
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uopx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. UOPX is working on its own cup with handle base the past 8 weeks, using the market consolidation well. It has moved up to form the right side of the base and is now moving laterally with a high in the handle near 37.75. Accumulation is solid at 2 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume. Relative strength is already breaking out as the stock moves laterally. Volume surged up to average Tuesday. Looking for the breakout ahead. Earnings are released on 3-25. UOPX is a market leader and is moving toward a new all-time high.
Volume: 211.391K Avg Volume: 201.272K
BUY POINT: $37.96 Volume=300K Target=$43.75 Stop=$35.32
POSITION: UBY FG - June $35c (68 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/uopx.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Upside:
Play Date: 01/18/2003
ALN (Allen Telecom--$13.14; +0.03; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aln.html
STATUS: Flat. Still moving laterally over the 18 day MVA (12.96) in a very tight range. ALN was a leader off the July low, and we have been watching for the next rally. It showed a strong volume surge Tuesday as trade swelled up well above average. Just waiting for the next move up on strong volume.
Volume: 1.394M Avg Volume: 506.863K
BUY POINT: $13.41 Volume=450K Target=$16.85 Stop=$12.25
POSITION: ALN FV - June $12.50c (87 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/aln.html
Play Date: 01/09/2003
AMZN (Amazon.com--$22.27; +0.46; optionable): Internet retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amzn.html
STATUS: AMZN continues to work through its new base, a cup formed after the December high at 25. Tuesday it tested the 50 day MVA on the low (21.36) and then rallied on rising though still below average volume. Relative strength is breaking out, a sign of strength relative to the market. Looks ready for more, and though it is early in the base, it could be ready for a strong move up to complete the right side of the pattern.
Volume: 5.448M Avg Volume: 6.577M
BUY POINT: $22.72 Volume=13M Target=$27.25 Stop=$20.75
POSITION: ZQN DO - April $17.50c (74 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/amzn.html
Play Date: 02/13/2003
AVCT (Avocent--$28; -0.53; optionable): Computer peripherals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avct.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. AVCT has been trending up, breaking to a new 52-week high last week on strong volume. As the market sells AVCT moves laterally over 28. Very nice accumulation at 10 rising weeks on rising volume to 4 down weeks on rising volume. Looking for a break higher from this lateral move the past week.
Volume: 650.22K Avg Volume: 498.272K
BUY POINT: $28.45 Volume=725K Target=$31.15 Stop=$26.46
POSITION: QVX HE - Aug. $25c (63 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/avct.html
Play Date: 02/27/2003
ICST (Integrated Circuit System--$23.14; -0.28; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuit
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/icst.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. ICST is now forming the handle to its 13-week base with solid accumulation at 4 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume. After a strong move up on volume to form the right side of the base the past 3 weeks ICST started backing off this week. Monday it reversed on volume, but then Tuesday it roughly held its ground on much lower, average volume. It may move laterally another session or two, but we want to be ready to jump in when it starts its move.
Volume: 1.669M Avg Volume: 1.521M
BUY POINT: New: $24.05 (orig. $23.31) Volume=2M Target=$27 Stop=$21.68
POSITION: IUY GX - July $22.50c (60 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/icst.html
Play Date: 02/22/2003
LGTO (Legato Systems--$6; +0.1; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lgto.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Still moving in the 13-week base, continuing to make higher lows as it works up the 50 day MVA (5.61). Showing excellent volume the past week as it tries to complete the pattern, but we need to be patient and let it make the clear break higher.
Volume: 2.521M Avg Volume: 1.501M
BUY POINT: $6.42 Volume=2M Target=$8.25 Stop=$5.88
POSITION: EQN IR - Sept. $5c (76 delta, low OI) or EQN FR - June $5c (78 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lgto.html
Play Date: 02/22/2003
WFR (Memc Electronic--$9.28; +0.27; no options): Integrated semiconductor circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. This continues to be one of the best sub-sectors in semiconductors. As the market sold WFR continues to hold steady, worling laterally on below average volume. Solid price/volume action continues with accumulation in the 3-month base is solid at 11 accumulation weeks to 3 distribution weeks.
Volume: 113.8K Avg Volume: 134.409K
BUY POINT: $9.35 Volume=217K Target=$11.25 Stop=$8.59
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wfr.html
Play Date: 02/06/2003
ZMH (Zimmer Holdings--$43.65; -0.05; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zmh.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. ZMH is making its first test of the mid-February breakout. It has pulled back to the 10 day MVA (43.72) on lower volume, showing a 'hammer' doji. A very nice looking test as ZMH has held up well during the selling.
Volume: 1.061M Avg Volume: 1.046M
BUY POINT: $42.65 Volume=1.6M Target=$50.88 Stop=$43.15
POSITION: ZMH FH - June $40c (70 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/zmh.html
Downside
Play Date: 02/13/2003
EXC (Exelon--$48.4; -0.86; optionable): Utilities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/exc.html
STATUS: Put. Starting the fall, dropping from the 200 day MVA (49.65) on rising, average volume. Looks very good for a further fall. Initial target at 45.55, but 44 is the real support.
Volume: 1.342M Avg Volume: 1.27M
BUY POINT: New: $48.25 (orig $49.65) Volume=1.5M Target=$45.55 (initial); 44 Stop=$50.85
POSITION: EXC PJ - April $50p (-56 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/exc.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 02/15/2003
CECO (Career Education--$46.83; +0.22; optionable): Education and training. Forecast to announce a split on 4-8-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the announcement.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 4-31-01 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $61. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-11-02 at which time authorized shares were increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceco.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Showing some better action in the handle, rallying up close the breakout point Tuesday but giving most of the move back by the close. Volume has improved the past two sessions but is still below average. Education is looking good.
Volume: 582.918K Avg Volume: 748.227K
BUY POINT: $48.07 Volume=1.4M Target=$54 Stop=$45.74
POSITION: CUY TI - July $45c (58 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ceco.html
Play Date: 02/20/2003
FCN (FTI Consulting--$43; -0.05; optionable): Management services. Looking for a split announcement in early May.
BACKGROUND: Last split 2:1 on 1-17-2002.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fcn.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Very nice test of the 10 day MVA (42.90) on mostly lower volume, showing a very tight doji as volume backed off Tuesday. FCN has been performing well, and this mild and orderly pullback in a selling market is a very good signal of its strength. Strong 6 to 0 accumulation.
Volume: 129.5K Avg Volume: 229.09K
BUY POINT: $44.05 (orig. $42.96) Volume=400K Target=$48.38 Stop=$40.15
POSITION: FCN FH - June $40c (66 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fcn.html
Play Date: 03/01/2003
HAR (Harman Intl.--$60; -3.65; optionable): Consumer electronic equipment. Working into this one early as we do not expect a split announcement until the summer, but we are hearing something about a possible earlier announcement. Great pattern so looking at it now.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 stock split on August 16, 2000 when the stock price was $64. It ran like a wild animal on that announcement.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/har.html
STATUS: Saucer. Looked solid on the move up off the 50 day MVA (59.34) last week, but then turned over Tuesday on very strong volume. The downgrades on the autos hurt HAR, an electronics maker. We will see if it can hold above the 50 day MVA (59.34). Should be short term, but we will wait and let it recover. A base on base pattern with excellent money flow and relative strength.
Volume: 846.6K Avg Volume: 272.59K
BUY POINT: $63.74 Volume=435K Target=$72 Stop=$59.28
POSITION: HAR GL - July $60c (67 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/har.html
Play Date: 02/25/2003
TTC (Toro--$68.05; -0.93; optionable): Motorized farm and home tools. Just announced earnings and looking trying to pinpoint a date. Announcements sometimes come after successful earnings reports, and TTC had a good one.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/ttc.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still working laterally in its consolidation, getting a bit wilder Tuesday after it was unable to break 70 on the Monday high. Volume was lower and TTC managed to rally back to the 10 day MVA to close. Needs to hold here and continue the lateral move. Solid 5 to 1 accumulation in this current 15-week base with continued strong money flow.
Volume: 47.1K Avg Volume: 91.772K
BUY POINT: $68.85 Volume=137K Target=$76.55 Stop=$65.35
POSITION: TTC FM - June $65c (72 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ttc.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/22/2003
EXPE (Expedia--$68.68; -0.62; optionable): Internet travel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/expe.html
STATUS: Pre-split. After a nice surge up of 60 on solid volume the past two weeks, EXPE is taking a breather after hitting 70, pulling back off of that level in an orderly manner with contracting volume. Nice money flow and relative strength breakout. Looking for a pullback toward the 10 day MVA (66.79) to start the next move up.
Volume: 2.135M Avg Volume: 2.079M
BUY POINT: After a pullback to 66.79, $67.97 Volume=3M Target=$76.45 Stop=$64.94
POSITION: UED GM - July $65c (60 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/expe.html
Play Date: 03/01/2003
XTO (XTO Energy--$25.2; +0.4; optionable): Independent oil and gas. Splits 4:3 on 3-19-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
STATUS: After turned back at 26, XTO tapped the 50 day MVA on the Monday low and started up Tuesday. This looks like a good test of the 50 day ahead of the split that is coming up. On a further move up it looks ready.
Volume: 569.7K Avg Volume: 809.5K
BUY POINT: $25.55 Volume=1.2M Target=$28.75 Stop=$24.33
POSITION: XTO EX - May $22.50c (91 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xto.html
POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/22/2003
COO (Cooper Companies--$28.71; -0.11; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coo.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. COO is now forming a handle to its 2.5 month base. After a good, stronger volume move up off the bottom of the pattern at 25, COO hit close to 30 and started pulling back modestly with the market. Volume was as it should be, lower on and below average on the pullback. Looking for the handle to form the next few days for the breakout. Relative strength is breaking out ahead of the stock.
Volume: 353.7K Avg Volume: 501K
BUY POINT: New: $29.45 (orig. $28.55) Volume=706K Target=$32.75 Stop=$26.55
POSITION: COO HE - Aug. $25c (79 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coo.html
Play Date: 02/24/2003
EXPD (Expeditors Intl.--$34.13; -0.15; optionable): Air freight
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/expd.html
STATUS: Cup. Trying to now form the handle in the 3-month base, running into resistance at 34.75 the past three sessions as it moves laterally along 34 on lower, below average volume. We want to see a nice handle form here over the next few sessions as EXPD stays strong versus the rest of the market. If the market reverses and starts to rally back EXPD could pop off earlier. If it does and the volume is good, that is okay. Excellent money flow and relative strength is already breaking. Accumulation is positive in the base at 3 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume.
Volume: 474.549K Avg Volume: 828.636K
BUY POINT: New: 34.89 (orig. $34.25) Volume=1.1M Target=$39.49 Stop=$32.45
POSITION: URP HG - Aug. $35c (45 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/expd.html
Play Date: 02/08/2003
INSP (Infospace--$11.74; 0; no options): Internet information provider
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/insp.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. INSP is working through a 3-month base, now forming a handle as it moves slightly lower and laterally, holding the 10 day MVA (11.65) as it moves on lower, below average volume. This is very good action in the base that sports excellent 4 to 1 accumulation. Looking for a move over the handle high for new positions.
Volume: 211.372K Avg Volume: 279.045K
BUY POINT: Breakout: $12.42; (orig $11.65) Volume=425K Target=$14.95 Stop=$10.85
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/insp.html
End Part 2 of 3
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trade stock
stock split
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