|
|
us stock market, trade stock
Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers.
Good moves: ERES; FCN; IMCL; MV; TTC
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/05/2003
JEC (Jacobs Engineering--$38; +0.05; optionable): Heavy construction
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jec.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Working through an 8-week base forming after the 8-month double base failed to make the strong breakout move. Accumulation is excellent at 4 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume. Money flow remains well out in front of the price, showing a nice positive divergence. The past three sessions JEC has moved back toward the 10 day MVA (37.61) to form a nice, orderly handle, showing a doji over the 10 day MVA on the close. Looks ready for a breakout.
Volume: 166.9K Avg Volume: 249.5K
BUY POINT: $38.75 Volume=374K Target=$44.55 Stop=$36.55
POSITION: JEC GG - July $35c (71 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jec.html
Play Date: 03/05/2003
MACR (Macromedia--$15; -0.2; optionable): Multimedia software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/macr.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. MACR is steadily moving up the 50 day MVA (13.77), testing the 18 day MVA (14.85) Wednesday, the first test after the January breakout from the 2-month cup with handle base. After stocks breakout they tend to bounce up the 18 day MVA as they continue the breakout move. Accumulation from the start of the November base is 4 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume. The recent accumulation is solid at 2 to 0. We like this test and are looking for a rising volume bounce up from here to take positions.
Volume: 654.301K Avg Volume: 726.59K
BUY POINT: $15.35 Volume=800K Target=$18 Stop=$14.28
POSITION: MRQ HC - Aug. $15c (60 delta, 80 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/macr.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Upside:
Play Date: 02/27/2003
ICST (Integrated Circuit System--$23.1; -0.04; optionable): Integrated semiconductor circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/icst.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Working on a nice 3.5 month base, forming a very nice handle this week. After peaking Monday, ICST has backed down toward the 10 day MVA (22.67) in an orderly manner, showing a nice, tight doji Wednesday that tapped at the 10 day MVA on the low and bounced. Volume jumped back above average on the doji, an indication that there was buying support when it high that level. Looking for the breakout here (have upped the buy point to take into consideration the formation of the handle).
Volume: 2.137M Avg Volume: 1.53M
BUY POINT: New buy point: $23.65 Volume=2M Target=$27 Stop=$21.99
POSITION: IUY GX - July $22.50c (60 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/icst.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
CECO looks ready to go. See Tuesday report.
TTC gave a great volume move!
Play Date: 02/20/2003
FCN (FTI Consulting--$43.63; +0.63; optionable): Management services. Looking for a split announcement in early May.
BACKGROUND: Last split 2:1 on 1-17-2002.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fcn.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Started up off of the 18 day MVA test (42.50), rallying on much stronger, slightly above average volume. This lured us into some positions, and we are looking for more on a move over 44. Strong 6 to 0 accumulation.
Volume: 268.5K Avg Volume: 228.909K
BUY POINT: New: $44.05 (orig. $42.96) Volume=400K Target=$48.38 Stop=$40.15
POSITION: FCN FH - June $40c (66 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fcn.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/22/2003
EXPE (Expedia--$69.55; +0.87; optionable): Online travel . . . dot com
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/expe.html
STATUS: New buy point. Testing the move. EXPE bounced up off 60 the past two weeks and is now moving laterally just below 70 as volume backs off. It is consolidating the nice gain, holding onto those gains on that lower volume. Money flow continues to rally, and after this little pullback (holding up very well while the market sold) we are looking for EXPE to continue the solid move. It can really run when it starts moving.
Volume: 1.406M Avg Volume: 2.078M
BUY POINT: $70.55 Volume=2.5M Target=$78 Stop=$66.55
POSITION: UED GN - July $70c (55 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/expe.html
POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/22/2003
COO (Cooper Companies--$29.35; +0.64; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coo.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. COO started to move out of the handle, but volume, even though up, was still not quite enough. Strong price move, and now we are looking for volume to follow it. Relative strength is breaking out on the move.
Volume: 439.2K Avg Volume: 501.09K
BUY POINT: New: $29.45 (orig. $28.55) Volume=706K Target=$32.75 Stop=$26.55
POSITION: COO HE - Aug. $25c (79 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coo.html
Play Date: 03/04/2003
GSOF (Group 1 Software--$16.33; -0.09; no options): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gsof.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. GSOF split in early December, and after a run up to 17.50, it has formed the current 7-week base showing excellent accumulation at 4 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume. It is currently forming the handle, a lateral and slightly lower move on lower volume. It has moved back toward the 10 day MVA (15.62), tapping at that level on the Wednesday low (15.82) and rebounding back. Very nice action, and we are looking for the breakout as relative strength starts to breakout and money flow leading the way higher.
Volume: 80.886K Avg Volume: 108.818K
BUY POINT: $17.05 Volume=164K Target=$20.55 Stop=$15.86
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gsof.html
Play Date: 03/04/2003
UOPX (University of Phoenix Online--$37.98; +0.78; optionable): Internet education
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uopx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Starting to make the breakout move, but did not attract the volume we were looking for. Relative strength is breaking out and we want to see volume do the same. Accumulation is solid at 2 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume. Earnings are released on 3-25. UOPX is a market leader and is moving toward a new all-time high.
Volume: 147.689K Avg Volume: 202.636K
BUY POINT: New: $38.05 (org. $37.96) Volume=300K Target=$43.75 Stop=$35.32
POSITION: UBY FG - June $35c (68 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/uopx.html
Play Date: 02/08/2003
INSP (Infospace--$11.7; -0.04; no options): Internet information provider
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/insp.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Another nice, tight doji right on top of the 10 day MVA as volume backed further below average. Very nice look. Just waiting for the breakout. Excellent 4 to 1 accumulation.
Volume: 147.08K Avg Volume: 273.59K
BUY POINT: Breakout: $12.42; (orig $11.65) Volume=425K Target=$14.95 Stop=$10.85
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/insp.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AAII 02/25 PreSplt 21.21 +0.19 22.05 25.94 293K 372K 20.51
Buy Not Issued.
ADVP 03/04 Cup hdl 27.85 +0.05 28.55 32.84 1.2M 1.8M 26.55
Buy Not Hit. Another nice, tight doji at the 10 day MVA.
AIG 02/20 Put 48.97 +1.46 49.48 46 5.7M 6M 51.25
Buy Not Issued.
ALN 01/18 Test BO 12.79 -0.35 13.41 16.85 461K 450K 12.25
Buy Not Issued.
ALN 11/09 Test BO 12.79 -0.35 7.28 14 461K 200K 12.45
Current. Broke below the 18 day MVA for the first time in a month. Coming on the heels of a long lateral consolidation, that is not good action. Volume was lower, but it needs to be just a shakeout and recover quickly.
AMZN 01/09 Test 50 22.42 +0.15 22.72 27.25 5.2M 13M 20.75
Buy Not Issued.
AMZN 10/21 Cup hdl 22.42 +0.15 20.32 24.38 5.2M 10M 20.75
Current. Rallying up off the 50 day MVA, but still on below average volume. Need to see the trade kick in on a move through the buy point.
APOL 02/18 A Wedge 45.68 +0.39 46.25 52.88 1.2M 22M 43.35
Current.
ARRO 02/15 Test 50 40.82 +0.32 42.12 48.42 22K 55K 39.65
Buy Not Issued.
ASKJ 12/26 Cup hdl 6.42 -0.35 2.89 8 1.1M 305K 6.08
Current.
ASL 02/04 Cup hdl 6.3 0 6.65 8.15 223K 700K 6.18
Current.
AVCT 02/13 Test BO 27.7 -0.3 28.45 31.15 421K 725K 26.46
Current.
BHE 02/11 Test BO 32.19 -0.06 35.75 41.12 630K 500K 33.25
Buy Not Issued.
BMC 02/19 Cup hdl 18.57 0 19.29 23.15 2.2M 2.5M 18.15
Current.
BRL 01/27 Test 18 75.52 -0.69 77.78 88 632K 875K 72.34
CCU 02/24 Put 34.71 +0.88 35.77 31.75 3.9M 4.8M 37.15
Buy Not Issued.
CECO 02/15 Cup hdl 47.78 +0.95 48.07 54 501K 1.4M 45.74
Buy Not Hit.
CGNX 02/04 DB hdl 21.9 +0.22 23.09 26.88 464K 525K 21.47
Buy Not Issued.
CKFR 01/28 Cup hdl 20.74 -0.05 20.85 25 986K 2M 18.94
Buy Not Issued.
COH 02/25 Flat 35.35 +0.55 35.5 41.25 955K 1.3M 33.02
Current.
COO 02/22 Cup 29.35 +0.64 28.55 32.75 439K 706K 26.55
Buy Not Issued.
CVD 12/21 Cup hdl 21.87 +0.88 24.75 29.74 1.4M 581K 24.25
Current.
CVD 11/05 Test BO 21.87 +0.88 23.65 28 1.4M 581K 24.88
Current.
DAKT 02/24 Test BO 16.5 +0.2 16.12 19.35 168K 227K 15.45
Current.
DNEX 02/27 BO 32.71 +0.41 33.55 38.58 87K 150K 31.94
Buy Not Issued.
ERES 01/30 Cup hdl 23.2 +1.5 21.55 24.45 559K 436K 20.05
Current.
ESI 02/15 Test BO 26.18 +0.25 27.15 32.12 180K 509K 25.05
Buy Not Issued.
EXC 02/13 Put 49.12 +0.72 49.65 45.55 1M 1.5M 50.85
Buy Not Issued.
EXPD 02/24 Cup 34.53 +0.4 34.25 39.49 715K 1.1M 32.45
Current.
EXPE 03/05 Cup 69.55 +0.87 70.55 78 1.4M 2.5M 66.55
New.
EXPE 02/22 PreSplt 69.55 +0.87 67.97 76.45 1.4M 3M 64.94
Current.
EXPE 11/30 A Wedge 69.55 +0.87 78.25 88 1.4M 3.2M 64.94
Current.
FBC 02/01 Cup hdl 24.86 +0.81 23.85 26.85 114K 199K 22.38
Buy Not Issued.
FBC 01/07 Cup hdl 24.86 +0.81 23.35 26.85 114K 199K 23.74
Current.
FCN 02/20 A Wedge 43.63 +0.63 43.6 49.35 268K 400K 42.04
Current.
FE 02/24 Put 29.86 +0.69 29.44 27.03 979K 1.4M 30.46
Buy Not Issued.
FIC 02/22 Test 18 47.58 -0.19 48.78 53.65 281K 550K 46.55
Current.
GSOF 03/04 Cup hdl 16.33 -0.09 17.05 20.55 81K 164K 15.86
Buy Not Hit.
HAR 03/01 Saucer 59.7 -0.3 63.74 72 783K 435K 59.28
Buy Not Issued.
HPQ 03/01 Put 15.56 +0.02 15.62 13 10M 14M 16.32
Buy Not Hit.
ICST 03/05 DB hdl 23.1 -0.04 23.65 27 2.1M 2M 21.99
Buy Not Issued.
IMCL 03/01 Test BO 15.27 +1.16 14.6 16.72 4.6M 2M 12.97
Current.
INSP 03/04 Cup hdl 11.7 -0.04 12.42 14.95 147K 425K 11.15
Buy Not Hit.
INSP 02/08 Cup hdl 11.7 -0.04 11.65 13.85 147K 425K 10.85
Current.
JDEC 02/22 Put 11.49 -0.31 11.6 9 615K 1.5M 12.18
Buy Not Issued.
JEC 03/05 Cup hdl 38 +0.05 38.75 44.55 167K 374K 36.55
New.
LGTO 02/22 A Wedge 5.9 -0.1 6.42 8.25 930K 2M 5.88
Buy Not Hit.
LLTC 03/01 BO 30.02 +0.86 31.21 35.12 6.5M 7M 29.03
Buy Not Issued.
MACR 03/05 Test 18 15 -0.2 15.35 18 654K 800K 14.28
New.
MVL 03/03 BO 12.19 +0.68 11.82 14.25 772K 675K 10.74
Current.
MYL 01/22 Test BO 27.95 -0.07 26.57 31.88 1.6M 1.2M 26.88
Current.
PKTR 03/03 BO 9.5 -0.36 9.76 11.88 338K 340K 8.92
Buy Not Issued.
PNRA 02/12 Put 26.49 -0.21 27.48 24 544K 1.2M 29
Buy Not Issued.
PRX 02/08 BO 38.25 +0.65 34.65 40.45 613K 435K 34.15
QCOM 12/04 Test 18 35.49 +1.04 40.85 50 17M 18M 37
Current.
QCOM 11/07 Test BO 35.49 +1.04 34.78 42 17M 18M 37
Current.
QLGC 11/07 Test BO 35.38 +0.62 41.4 50 6.1M 25M 39.88
QSII 01/30 BO 22.15 -0.45 24.5 29 91K 55K 24.68
Current.
RHD 11/30 Cup hdl 30.98 -0.64 30.17 25.94 179K 267K 30.25
Current.
RNBO 02/27 DB hdl 8.75 -0.06 8.45 10.25 77K 161K 7.86
Current.
ROL 02/01 PreSplt 31.84 +0.32 29.45 33.75 84K 85K 30.02
SBL 02/26 Test BO 10.2 +0.03 10.45 12.25 1.1M 2M 9.72
Current.
SYMC 01/09 Test 50 41.45 -0.12 46.3 51 3.9M 4.1M 45.45
Current.
TTC 02/25 Test BO 69.45 +1.4 68.85 76.55 132K 137K 65.35
Current.
UOPX 03/04 Cup hdl 37.98 +0.78 37.96 43.75 148K 300K 35.32
Buy Not Hit.
VAR 12/18 Rv H&S 50.01 +0.75 50.25 58 544K 700K 49.15
Current.
VIA 02/15 Put 36.01 +0.6 37.05 33.85 327K 485K 38.35
Buy Not Issued.
VSEA 02/26 Put 23.11 -0.52 25.65 22 2.3M 1M 27.15
Buy Not Issued.
WCN 02/22 Put 32.8 +0.44 33.38 30 184K 425K 34.35
Buy Not Issued.
WFR 02/22 Flat 9.17 -0.11 9.35 11.25 134K 217K 8.59
Buy Not Hit.
XTO 03/01 PreSplt 24.89 -0.31 25.55 28.75 974K 1.2M 24.33
Buy Not Hit.
ZMH 02/06 DB hdl 44.23 +0.58 42.65 50.88 1.3M 1.6M 43.15
Current.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
trade stock
|
