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us stock market, stock watch
Begin Part 2 of 3
Economic Calendar
3-03-03
Personal income, January (8:30): 0.3% actual, 0.4% expected, 0.3% prior (revised from 0.4%).
Personal spending, January (8:30): -0.1% actual, 0.2% expected, 1.0% prior, (revised from 0.9%).
ISM, February (10:00): 50.5 actual, 52.0 expected, 53.9 prior.
Construction spending, January (10:00): 1.7% actual, 0.4% expected, 1.5% December (revised from 1.2%).
3-05-03
ISM services, February (10:00): 53.9 actual, 53.0 expected, 54.5 January.
Fed Beige Book (2:00): Geopolitical issues keeping consumers and investors from spending, blah, blah, blah. Broken record.
3-06-03
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 430K actual, 403k expected, 418k prior.
Productivity, Q4 revised (8:30): 0.8% actual, 0.2% expected, -0.2% prior.
Factory orders, January (10:00): 2.1% actual, 1.8% expected, 0.3% December (revised from 0.3%).
3-07-03
Nonfarm payrolls, February (8:30): 20K expected, 143K January.
Unemployment rate, February (8:30): 5.8% expected, 5.7% prior.
SUBSCRIBER QUESTIONS
Q: Don't you believe Powell will advise the UN to get the inspectors out before
the start? That will start the real countdown.
Q: Must agree with you that Powell packed his speech today (3/5/03) with language that signaled the end of rhetoric and the start of hostilities. What puzzles me, however, is that (up to this moment) there has been no indication that the inspectors are about to leave Iraq! If, after the upcoming Blix report, the Security Council rejects U.S. urging to act, will the U.S. advise the inspectors to get out of Dodge FAST, or do you think it likely the war will begin prior to their departure?
A: Absolutely the inspectors will be told to get out first. Last war there was a problem with that. We talked with a contact in Moscow Tuesday and heard that Russia was pulling back its personnel. That was confirmed today on FoxNews. The word is Powell is telling allies to get that ball rolling, and we hear that Blix will be advised after his UN presentation to have inspectors ready to leave quickly. Some are already out of country on the pre-text of helping prepare for the UN address. That is what we hear from sources, and it is not official, but they are usually quite reliable.
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This is Jon Johnson's own site devoted exclusively to seminars designed to teach you what you need to know about the stock market and stock movement and how to take advantage of those moves without incurring the usual high costs of travel and related expenses usually associated with seminars.
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/06/2003
ELAB (Eon Labs--$23.2; +1.11; no options): Drug manufacturers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/elab.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. No question that the market is defensive, and when defensive drug and medical stocks perform better. Not necessarily the big behemoths (e.g., LLY), but some of the more nimble, new names. ELAB was a new issue in May, definitely a newer name. It is moving in a 5.5 month base with accumulation at 4 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume. Solid accumulation and relative strength is breaking out (it has held up and was up on a down market day). Solid move Thursday on an excellent volume session.
Volume: 317.83K Avg Volume: 176.909K
BUY POINT: $24.06 Volume=325K Target=$28.88 Stop=$22.38
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/elab.html
Play Date: 03/06/2003
SBUX (Starbucks--$23.38; -0.02; optionable): High-priced coffee
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sbux.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. SBUX is in a 4-month base, and is now forming a nice, tight lateral handle over the 10 day MVA (23.10) as volume backs off to below average. The lower volume is what you want to see as the stock sells back (intraday is fine) because that shows no one wants to sell the stock. Accumulation is excellent in the base at 5 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume, and relative strength is already breaking out ahead of the stock, a very bullish move. SBUX has reported good same store sales and good earnings; even in very bad times people are still willing to shell out $5 for a double whipped chocolate vanilla latte with sprinkles. Guess that just goes to show the power of selling a product that has an addictive component in it. Better watch out for the next lawsuits I guess.
Volume: 3.637M Avg Volume: 3.539M
BUY POINT: $23.74 Volume=5M Target=$28.44 Stop=$22.08
POSITION: SQX GX - July $22.50c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sbux.html
New Pre-Split:
Play Date: 03/06/2003
CTSH (Cognizant Technology--$70.25; +0.48; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctsh.html
STATUS: Cup. CTSH announced a split Wednesday as it fights back from a wicked selloff starting in late December. It has marched up the 10 day MVA (69.50) and is now moving laterally at 70, consolidating the strong move. With the split announcement we are looking for the stock to start a pre-split move out of this lateral consolidation and want to catch it as it makes the move.
Volume: 551.03K Avg Volume: 927.318K
BUY POINT: $70.62 Volume=1M Target=$79 Stop=$67.75
POSITION: UPU GN - July $70c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ctsh.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Upside:
Play Date: 03/04/2003
ADVP (AdvancePCS--$28.4; +0.55; optionable): Health management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/advp.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Making a good move Thursday on rising, above average volume in the 5-week handle to its 10-month base. Health related stocks moved better Thursday as the rest of the market sold; a defensive bias to say the least. Outstanding accumulation at 10 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume.
Volume: 1.626M Avg Volume: 1.2M
BUY POINT: $28.55 Volume=1.8M Target=$32.84 Stop=$26.55
POSITION: QVD FY - June $27.50c (57 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/advp.html
Play Date: 02/13/2003
AVCT (Avocent--$27.36; -0.34; optionable): Computer peripherals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avct.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Nice action as AVCT shows a doji rising star doji right on the 18 day MVA (27.21) as volume backed off even further below average volume. This is very good action on a pullback. Looking ready for the breakout. Very nice accumulation at 10 rising weeks on rising volume to 4 down weeks on rising volume.
Volume: 313.928K Avg Volume: 501.818K
BUY POINT: $28.45 Volume=725K Target=$31.15 Stop=$26.46
POSITION: QVX HE - Aug. $25c (63 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/avct.html
Play Date: 02/04/2003
CGNX (Cognex--$22.71; +0.81; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cgnx.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. The test lower in the pattern earlier in the week looked to be a final shakeout. CGNX tested the 50 day MVA Wednesday and Thursday and rebounded on very solid volume. Looks ready for the breakout. Very nice.
Volume: 651.314K Avg Volume: 338.727K
BUY POINT: $23.09 Volume=525K Target=$26.88 Stop=$21.47
POSITION: QCG ED - May $20c (65 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cgnx.html
Play Date: 02/27/2003
ICST (Integrated Circuit System--$23.05; -0.05; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuit
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/icst.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Very, very nice pullback to the 10 day MVA (22.78), forming a nice handle. It showed a doji on the 10 day MVA as volume spiked higher Thursday. The volume spike with a doji on the 10 day MVA indicates it is ready to move up with some force. Solid accumulation at 4 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume.
Volume: 2.737M Avg Volume: 1.518M
BUY POINT: New: $24.05 (orig. $23.31) Volume=2M Target=$27 Stop=$21.68
POSITION: IUY GX - July $22.50c (60 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/icst.html
Play Date: 02/22/2003
LGTO (Legato Systems--$5.97; +0.07; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lgto.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Still working on the 18 day MVA (5.93) in the 3.5 month base, but Thursday volume spiked well above average as it showed another doji. Could signal it is ready to move, but we need to see the breakout on volume.
Volume: 2.241M Avg Volume: 1.509M
BUY POINT: $6.42 Volume=2M Target=$8.25 Stop=$5.88
POSITION: EQN IR - Sept. $5c (76 delta, low OI) or EQN FR - June $5c (78 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lgto.html
Play Date: 02/27/2003
RNBO (Rainbow Technologies--$9.01; +0.26; optionable): Security software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rnbo.html
STATUS: Double bottom. We were looking for RNBO to perhaps form a handle, but it is moving up with no problem, giving us the buy point earlier in the week. It resumed that move Thursday on another strong shot of volume after taking a day off Wednesday. Relative strength has broken out as well as money flow shoots higher ahead of the stock. Solid accumulation at 3 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume. Still in good shape for buys.
Volume: 218.132K Avg Volume: 108.272K
BUY POINT: New: 9.06 (orig. $8.45) Volume=161K Target=$10.25 Stop=$7.86
POSITION: BQO GU - July $7.50c (67 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rnbo.html
Play Date: 02/26/2003
SBL (Symbol Technologies--$10.25; +0.05; optionable): Computer peripherals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sbl.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. A nice hammer doji that tapped the 18 day MVA on the low (10.02) and rebounded to close right over the 10 day MVA. Volume was lower, but still a good test of the 3-month double bottom showing solid accumulation at 3 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume. Doji indicates it is ready to resume the move back up.
Volume: 1.079M Avg Volume: 1.329M
BUY POINT: $10.45 Volume=2M Target=$12.25 Stop=$9.72
POSITION: SBL GB - July $10c (59 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sbl.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 02/15/2003
CECO (Career Education--$46.93; -0.85; optionable): Education and training. Forecast to announce a split on 4-8-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the announcement.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 4-31-01 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $61. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-11-02 at which time authorized shares were increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceco.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Turned back Thursday after showing a solid upside move Wednesday. Volume edged higher Thursday but was still below average as CECO tested the 10 day MVA on the low (46.67). Still in the pattern, but we need to see the market move on stronger volume.
Volume: 612.124K Avg Volume: 732.59K
BUY POINT: $48.07 Volume=1.4M Target=$54 Stop=$45.74
POSITION: CUY TI - July $45c (58 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ceco.html
Play Date: 02/20/2003
FCN (FTI Consulting--$43.66; +0.03; optionable): Management services. Looking for a split announcement in early May.
BACKGROUND: Last split 2:1 on 1-17-2002.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fcn.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Started moving up off the breakout test of the 18 day MVA Wednesday, showing some decent volume on that move. During the Thursday selling FCN took a day off on lower, below average volume. Still very solid, and we are looking for new positions on the move over 44. Strong 6 to 0 accumulation.
Volume: 168.9K Avg Volume: 228.681K
BUY POINT: $44.05 (orig. $42.96) Volume=400K Target=$48.38 Stop=$40.15
POSITION: FCN FH - June $40c (66 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fcn.html
Play Date: 03/01/2003
HAR (Harman Intl.--$60.55; +0.85; optionable): Consumer electronic equipment. Working into this one early as we do not expect a split announcement until the summer, but we are hearing something about a possible earlier announcement. Great pattern so looking at it now.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 stock split on August 16, 2000 when the stock price was $64. It ran like a wild animal on that announcement.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/har.html
STATUS: Saucer. Still trying to come off of the 50 day MVA, but needs to recover. Has to rebuild after trying the breakout move last week. A base on base pattern with excellent money flow and relative strength.
Volume: 346.8K Avg Volume: 283.227K
BUY POINT: $63.74 Volume=435K Target=$72 Stop=$59.28
POSITION: HAR GL - July $60c (67 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/har.html
Play Date: 02/25/2003
TTC (Toro--$68.4; -1.05; optionable): Motorized farm and home tools. Just announced earnings and looking trying to pinpoint a date. Announcements sometimes come after successful earnings reports, and TTC had a good one.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/ttc.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. TTC started a good, above average volume move Wednesday, but could not carry the move through the Thursday selling. Volume was lower, below average. Still very strong in the pattern, and looking for a further move off of the 10 day MVA. Solid 5 to 1 accumulation in this current 15-week base with continued strong money flow.
Volume: 61K Avg Volume: 93.272K
BUY POINT: $68.85 Volume=137K Target=$76.55 Stop=$65.35
POSITION: TTC FM - June $65c (72 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ttc.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/22/2003
EXPE (Expedia--$70.31; +0.76; optionable): Internet travel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/expe.html
STATUS: Pre-split. Moving laterally still at 70 as it consolidates the strong February move up. It started over 70 Thursday on rising though still below average volume. Not a bad move, and we are looking for EXPE to continue the move; it was up as the market was down. It is that kind of stock.
Volume: 1.613M Avg Volume: 2.044M
BUY POINT: $70.55 Volume=2.5M Target=$78 Stop=$66.55
POSITION: UED GN - July $70c (55 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/expe.html
POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/24/2003
EXPD (Expeditors Intl.--$34.24; -0.29; optionable): Air freight
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/expd.html
STATUS: Cup. Solid move Wednesday on some rising though still below average volume. Thursday in the market selling EXPD tapped 34 on the low and held up with a doji. It held up well given the market selling, continuing in its good accumulative pattern. Looking for another stronger break higher. Accumulation is positive in the base at 3 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume.
Volume: 649.674K Avg Volume: 831.681K
BUY POINT: New: 34.89 (orig. $34.25) Volume=1.1M Target=$39.49 Stop=$32.45
POSITION: URP HG - Aug. $35c (45 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/expd.html
Play Date: 03/04/2003
GSOF (Group 1 Software--$16.22; -0.11; no options): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gsof.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working and improving on a very good handle to its 8-week base, backing down toward the 10 day MVA (15.73) as it does. Money flow is outstanding, and it is just waiting for the trigger to send it higher.
Volume: 51.361K Avg Volume: 108.954K
BUY POINT: $17.05 Volume=164K Target=$20.55 Stop=$15.86
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gsof.html
Play Date: 02/08/2003
INSP (Infospace--$11.61; -0.09; no options): Internet information provider
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/insp.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still in the very nice pullback, testing the 18 day MVA on the Thursday low (11.45) and snapping back to close at the 10 day MVA with another tight doji. Volume edged higher but was still below average. Excellent 4 to 1 accumulation in the 13-week base. Very nice action.
Volume: 199.987K Avg Volume: 267.727K
BUY POINT: Breakout: $12.42; (orig $11.65) Volume=425K Target=$14.95 Stop=$10.85
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/insp.html
Play Date: 03/05/2003
JEC (Jacobs Engineering--$38.05; +0.05; optionable): Heavy construction
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jec.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working through an 8-week base forming after the 8-month double base. Thursday JEC tapped the 10 day MVA on the low (37.70) and then moved up on a big surge of above average volume. Excellent volume surge Thursday as JEC tested and moved back up. Looks ready to go and make use of that excellent at 4 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume. Money flow is up ahead of price.
Volume: 340.3K Avg Volume: 247.09K
BUY POINT: $38.75 Volume=374K Target=$44.55 Stop=$36.55
POSITION: JEC GG - July $35c (71 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jec.html
Play Date: 03/04/2003
UOPX (University of Phoenix Online--$37.8; -0.18; optionable): Internet education
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uopx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Tried to move out of the 8-weeek cup with handle base Thursday, but pulled back in the market selling to hold steady. Volume rose as it attempted the move. Still very nice pattern with accumulation at 2 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume. Relative strength is already breaking out. Just looking for another move on volume. Earnings are released on 3-25. UOPX is a market leader and is moving toward a new all-time high.
Volume: 200.799K Avg Volume: 202.863K
BUY POINT: $37.96 Volume=300K Target=$43.75 Stop=$35.32
POSITION: UBY FG - June $35c (68 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/uopx.html
End Part 2 of 3
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us stock market
stock watch
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