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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/25/2003
AAII (Aia Pharmaceuticals--$21.31; +0.31; no options): Medical Labs. Splits 3:2 on 3-11-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aaii.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. It is very close to the actual split date, but we are not too worried about that. The reason is that AAII is in a good defensive sector that has been performing well (as has the stock itself). Often what happens when that is the case is that the stock actually rallies into and after the split. Friday AAII started up off the 18 day MVA (20.64) on rising volume. We are looking to move in on a further gain on even stronger volume.
Volume: 229.849K Avg Volume: 252.784K
BUY POINT: $22.05 Volume=372K Target=$25.94 Stop=$20.51
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/aaii.html
Play Date: 03/06/2003
CTSH (Cognizant Technology--$69.56; -0.69; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctsh.html
STATUS: Cup. CTSH continues to move laterally right at 70 in a very tight range on very low, below average volume. This follows that big move up off 55 that started in late January. It needed this consolidation, and it has held the 10 day MVA (69.35) the entire time. Money flow continues to move up ahead of the price as it moves laterally. The stock is showing excellent resilience to the market as CTSH goes about its own business and prepares for the next move higher.
Volume: 413.798K Avg Volume: 902.236K
BUY POINT: $70.62 Volume=1M Target=$79 Stop=$67.75
POSITION: UPU GN - July $70c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ctsh.html
Play Date: 02/22/2003
EXPE (Expedia--$70.39; +0.08; optionable): Internet travel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/expe.html
STATUS: Pre-split. EXPE is holding the lateral move at 70, testing toward the 10 day MVA on the Friday low (68.51) and then recovering for a fractional gain as volume rallied close to average. Money flow continues to rise in EXPE, and it looks to be readying for its next leg. We love playing these kind of stocks pre-split that can make big moves in a hurry. Not like the old days when we could literally make $50K in a few days on a NSOL or CMGI options play pre-split when we put $3K into the position. Ahh but we digress. Suffice it to say that EXPE has the current day excitement.
Volume: 2.149M Avg Volume: 2.174M
BUY POINT: $70.55 Volume=2.5M Target=$78 Stop=$66.55
POSITION: UED GN - July $70c (55 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/expe.html
POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/22/2003
COO (Cooper Companies--$29.14; +0.84; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coo.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working in the handle of the 3-month base following the November split. COO fell on some rising volume Thursday, but held the 10 day MVA at 28.45. Friday it gapped lower but then recovered for a nice gain as volume continued above average. Got a big wild in the Thursday action, but calmed down well and still looks primed for a breakout.
Volume: 652.1K Avg Volume: 536.043K
BUY POINT: Breakout: 29.45 (orig. $28.55) Volume=706K Target=$32.75 Stop=$26.55
POSITION: COO HE - Aug. $25c (79 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coo.html
Play Date: 02/24/2003
EXPD (Expeditors Intl.--$33.98; -0.25; optionable): Air freight
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/expd.html
STATUS: Cup. EXPD is continuing to form a nice, lateral consolidation at 34, falling to the 10 day MVA (33.97) Friday and showing a very tight doji on rising, slightly above average volume. Still a very nice pattern. We really want to see EXPD make a strong breakout on volume where it holds the gains to the close. Accumulation is positive in the base at 3 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume.
Volume: 795.803K Avg Volume: 858.95K
BUY POINT: New: 34.89 (orig. $34.25) Volume=1.1M Target=$39.49 Stop=$32.45
POSITION: URP HG - Aug. $35c (45 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/expd.html
Play Date: 03/04/2003
GSOF (Group 1 Software--$15.99; -0.23; no options): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gsof.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Another day at 16 on very low, below average volume as GSOF continues the nice, orderly handle formation to its 8-week base. Just a super pattern with outstanding money flow. Again, we are just waiting for the trigger to send it higher.
Volume: 42.409K Avg Volume: 114.773K
BUY POINT: $17.05 Volume=164K Target=$20.55 Stop=$15.86
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gsof.html
Play Date: 03/05/2003
JEC (Jacobs Engineering--$38.23; +0.18; optionable): Heavy construction
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jec.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume surged to the highest level in 2.5 months Friday as JEC tapped at the breakout on the high (38.54). It is moving laterally in its 8-week base forming after the 8-month double base. Excellent accumulation at 4 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume. Money flow is up ahead of price as money flow rallies higher ahead of the stock price.
Volume: 620.3K Avg Volume: 291.341K
BUY POINT: $38.75 Volume=374K Target=$44.55 Stop=$36.55
POSITION: JEC GG - July $35c (71 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jec.html
Play Date: 03/04/2003
UOPX (University of Phoenix Online--$38.19; +0.39; optionable): Internet education
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uopx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Showing a lot of action in the handle late last week with the stock rising on a general move up in volume. This is another stock that can cover a lot of ground in a hurry, and this is a really nice little pattern that formed as the market sold off. Your better stocks will use market selling to form good bases where the stock is accumulated as opposed to being dumped as are most stocks in the market when there is a continued downtrend. Accumulation at 2 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume. Earnings are released on 3-25.
Volume: 172.364K Avg Volume: 215.232K
BUY POINT: New: $38.48 (orig. $37.96) Volume=300K Target=$43.75 Stop=$35.32
POSITION: UBY FG - June $35c (68 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/uopx.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
$OEX 03/08 Dbl btm 0 0 421.05 438 0 0 416
New.
AAII 02/25 PreSplt 21.31 +0.31 22.05 25.94 230K 372K 20.51
Buy Not Issued.
ADVP 03/04 Cup hdl 28.66 +0.26 28.55 32.84 571K 1.8M 26.55
Buy Not Hit. Needed to get some volume, but it was not forthcoming with Fridays gain.
AIG 02/20 Put 47.88 +0.16 49.48 46 6.6M 6M 51.25
Buy Not Issued. Some short covering pushed it to test the 10 day MVA on the Friday high, but still trending lower.
ALN 01/18 Test BO 13.23 +0.22 13.41 16.85 321K 450K 12.25
Buy Not Issued.
ALN 11/09 Test BO 13.23 +0.22 7.28 14 321K 200K 12.45
Current. Not a bad recovery at all, moving back over the short term MVA though on continued low volume.
AMZN 01/09 Test 50 22.97 +0.28 22.72 27.25 4.8M 13M 20.75
Buy Not Issued.
AMZN 10/21 Cup hdl 22.97 +0.28 20.32 24.38 4.8M 10M 20.75
Current. Not bad at all, rising off the 50 day MVA last week though volume remained below average.
ANPI 03/08 PreSplt 40.2 +1.81 40.33 45.85 291K 156K 37.96
New.
APOL 02/18 A Wedge 46.39 +0.61 46.25 52.88 2M 22M 44.25
Current. Solid action Friday as volume moved well above average and strongest in weeks. Glad we moved in earlier.
ARRO 02/15 Test 50 41.5 +0.55 42.12 48.42 20K 55K 39.65
Buy Not Issued. Still working the base, up off the 50 day MVA late last week but still needs volume.
ASL 02/04 Cup hdl 6.4 -0.08 6.65 8.15 452K 700K 6.18
Current. Aaargh. Still just bouncing along the 50 day MVA as volume move toward average.
AVCT 02/13 Test BO 27.25 -0.11 28.45 31.15 556K 725K 26.46
Current. Another doji with a long tail that rallied back to close right on the 18 day MVA as volume sruged to average.
BMC 02/19 Cup hdl 18.2 -0.13 19.29 23.15 2.9M 2.5M 18.15
Exited.
BRL 01/27 Test 18 74.3 +0.32 77.78 88 713K 875K 72.34
Gapped below the 50 day MVA and rallied back. Would love to see
a pre-split move here.
CCU 02/24 Put 34.76 +0.89 35.77 31.75 5M 4.8M 37.15
Buy Not Issued. Still working in teh downtrend along the short term MVA, but very strong up volume Friday.
CECO 02/15 Cup hdl 47.71 +0.78 48.07 54 850K 1.4M 45.74
Buy Not Hit. Now it is looking ready with the stronger volume move Friday, the strongest volume in weeks.
CGNX 02/04 DB hdl 22.72 +0.01 23.09 26.88 700K 525K 21.47
Buy Not Issued. Could not quite keep the Thursday move going, but still looks ready with super volume.
CKFR 01/28 Cup hdl 20 -0.36 20.85 25 1.6M 2M 18.94
Buy Not Issued. Had looked ready to make the breakout early in the week, but failed and barely managed to hang onto the 18 day.
COH 02/25 Flat 36.55 +0.67 35.5 41.25 1.1M 1.3M 33.72
Current. Yet another nice move, and doing so on rising, average volume.
COO 02/22 Cup 29.14 +0.84 28.55 32.75 652K 706K 26.55
Buy Not Issued. Good recovery after plunking down to the 10 day Thursday.
CTSH 03/06 PreSplt 69.56 -0.69 70.62 79 414K 1M 67.75
Buy Not Hit.
CVD 12/21 Cup hdl 22.13 +0.34 24.75 29.74 577K 581K 24.25
Current. Rallied well intraday, reaching to the 18 day MVA, but then giving up much of the move. If it cannot move Monday early, we will exit.
CVD 11/05 Test BO 22.13 +0.34 23.65 28 577K 581K 24.88
Current.
DAKT 02/24 Test BO 16.18 -0.23 16.12 19.35 45K 227K 15.45
Current. Doji that tapped the 18 day MVA on the low and closed at the 10 day. Volume was barely visible. Not bad.
DNEX 02/27 BO 32.9 +0.09 33.55 38.58 129K 150K 31.94
Buy Not Issued. Getting interesting here as DNEX holds the 18 day MVA on a very strong shot of volume.
EBAY 03/08 BO 79.9 +1.04 80.08 92 6M 8M 77.04
New.
ELAB 03/06 Cup hdl 23.87 +0.67 24.06 28.88 362K 325K 22.38
Buy Not Hit.
ERES 01/30 Cup hdl 23.46 -0.24 21.55 24.45 331K 436K 21.48
Current. Gapped lower but would not give in, bouncing off the 10 day MVA on the low on solid volume.
EXPD 02/24 Cup 33.98 -0.25 34.25 39.49 796K 1.1M 33.15
Current. Nice tight doji on the 10 day MVA as volume moved above average.
EXPE 03/05 Cup 70.39 +0.08 70.55 78 2.1M 2.5M 66.55
Buy Not Hit. Poised for the move, holding steady as volume started to surge Friday.
EXPE 02/22 PreSplt 70.39 +0.08 67.97 76.45 2.1M 3M 64.94
Current.
EXPE 11/30 A Wedge 70.39 +0.08 78.25 88 2.1M 3.2M 64.94
Current.
FBC 02/01 Cup hdl 24.46 -0.01 23.85 26.85 73K 199K 22.38
Buy Not Issued.
FBC 01/07 Cup hdl 24.46 -0.01 23.35 26.85 73K 199K 23.74
Current. Continues to ride up the 18 day MVA but without any breakout.
FCN 02/20 A Wedge 44 +0.34 43.6 49.35 222K 400K 42.55
Current. Moving laterally over the 10 day MVA as it tries to build for a breakout over 44.
FIC 02/22 Test 18 46.83 -0.06 48.78 53.65 281K 550K 46.19
Current. Tapped back down to the 50 day MVA on the Friday low & then started to rebound on rising though still above average volume.
GSOF 03/04 Cup hdl 15.99 -0.23 17.05 20.55 42K 164K 15.86
Buy Not Hit. Still in a very nice, low volume handle that is pulling back to use the 10 day MVA as its launch point.
HAR 03/01 Saucer 57.7 -2.85 63.74 72 886K 435K 59.28
Buy Not Issued.
HPQ 03/01 Put 15.8 +0.25 15.62 13 11M 14M 16.32
Buy Not Issued. Making another test of the 200 day MVA, moving back off 15 where it has held fast the past week. That gives us concern it wont drop hard.
ICST 03/05 DB hdl 23.19 +0.14 23.65 27 1.4M 2M 21.99
Buy Not Issued. Tapped the 18 day MVA on the low and started up in the handle. Still looks very good for a breakout despite the Intel trouble Friday.
IMCL 03/01 Test BO 15.7 -0.88 14.6 16.72 4.4M 2M 14.05
Current. AFter a huge move Thursday, IMCL took a breather Friday on some lower volume.
INSP 03/04 Cup hdl 11.34 -0.27 12.42 14.95 221K 425K 11.15
Buy Not Hit. Edged below the 18 day MVA on rising though still below average volume. Not what we wanted to see, but may be a shakeout before a breakout attempt.
INSP 02/08 Cup hdl 11.34 -0.27 11.65 13.85 221K 425K 10.85
Current.
JDEC 02/22 Put 11.45 +0.22 11.6 9 509K 1.5M 12.18
Buy Not Issued. Tapped the 200 day MVA on the high after again holding at 11 once again. Needs to roll over on stronger volume.
JEC 03/05 Cup hdl 38.23 +0.18 38.75 44.55 620K 374K 36.55
Buy Not Hit. Huge volume surge Friday. Looks ready.
LGTO 02/22 A Wedge 5.98 +0.01 6.42 8.25 1.1M 2M 5.88
Buy Not Hit. Still testing the 50 day MVA on the intraday lows as it works to complete its base.
LLTC 03/01 BO 30.03 +0.15 31.21 35.12 4.9M 7M 29.03
Buy Not Issued. Hanging in there despite the Intel news, holding at the 18 day & trying to break over the down trendline.
MACR 03/05 Test 18 14.79 -0.08 15.35 18 497K 800K 14.28
Buy Not Hit. Another very tight doji right on the 18 day MVA as volume dries up. Nice test. Now it needs to explode higher.
MVL 03/03 BO 12.7 +0.24 11.82 14.25 946K 675K 11.15
Current. Very nice, rallying to a new high on even stronger, above average volume.
MYL 01/22 Test BO 27.9 -0.09 26.57 31.88 1.3M 1.2M 27.05
Current. Held the 18 day on the gap lower and moved up from there. Good.
NDC 03/08 Saucer 22.03 +0.54 22.22 25 246K 300K 20.66
New.
PKTR 03/03 BO 9.8 +0.15 9.76 11.88 174K 340K 8.92
Current. Showing great action toward the end of the week but did not get the volume turn back up Friday we felt was coming. Still solid.
PRX 02/08 BO 38.9 +0.94 34.65 40.45 479K 435K 36.05
Starting back up on rising volume without much of a pause.
QCOM 12/04 Test 18 35.18 +0.2 40.85 50 12M 18M 37
Current. Still holding at 34 and trying to get over 36. That will be the key move as QCOM refuses to give in.
QCOM 11/07 Test BO 35.18 +0.2 34.78 42 12M 18M 37
Current.
QLGC 11/07 Test BO 35.96 -0.28 41.4 50 9.6M 25M 39.88
RHD 11/30 Cup hdl 30.2 +0.1 30.17 25.94 403K 267K 30.25
Exited.
RNBO 02/27 DB hdl 8.88 -0.13 8.45 10.25 180K 161K 8.15
Current. Took a breather Friday on lower though still above average volume as RNBO tries to get over 9.
SBL 02/26 Test BO 10.55 +0.3 10.45 12.25 1.1M 2M 9.72
Current. Solid bound Friday off the 18 day MVA on some rising though still above average volume.
SBUX 03/06 Cup hdl 22.9 -0.48 23.74 28.44 5.1M 5M 22.08
Buy Not Hit. Well, SBUX fell below the 10 day it was so good at holding, managing to struggle in at the 18 day MVA on rising, above average volume.
STN 01/04 Rv H&S 19.4 +1.56 19.05 22.86 1.6M 600K 17.72
Current.
SYMC 01/09 Test 50 43.54 +0.62 46.3 51 4.3M 4.1M 45.45
Current. Another good move up from the earlier tank lower, rising to the 10 day MVA Friday on continued average volume. Here to 45 is a critical area.
TTC 02/25 Test BO 68.03 -0.37 68.85 76.55 54K 137K 65.35
Current.
UOPX 03/04 Cup hdl 38.19 +0.39 37.96 43.75 172K 300K 35.32
Buy Not Hit. Looking ready to go, tapping the 10 day MVA on the low and bouncing higher.
VAR 12/18 Rv H&S 50.76 +0.16 50.25 58 334K 700K 49.15
Current. Back over the 50 day MVA after giving us some concern last week as it dipped below that key level.
VIA 02/15 Put 36.22 +0.57 37.05 33.85 302K 485K 38.35
Buy Not Issued. Continuing in the downtrend along the 10 day MVA.
VSEA 02/26 Put 21.25 -1.47 25.65 22 2.8M 1M 27.15
Plunged to the target.
WCN 02/22 Put 33.07 +0.1 33.38 30 210K 425K 34.35
Buy Not Issued. Tested over the 18 day on the high and then fell back to close right at the 10 day. Very low volume, not enough to break the downtrend.
WFR 02/22 Flat 9 0 9.35 11.25 159K 217K 8.59
Buy Not Hit. Tested down to the 18 day MVA late in the week, held the support and bounced on some rising, above average volume.
XTO 03/01 PreSplt 25.81 +0.05 25.55 28.75 1M 1.2M 24.33
Buy Not Hit. Up to the top of the range at 26 as it hangs in there.
ZMH 02/06 DB hdl 45.21 +0.42 42.65 50.88 969K 1.6M 43.45
Current. An excellent last half of the week, moving to a new closing high but volume has not move up as well, something that concerns us.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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