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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 2 of 2
Economic Calendar
3-11-03
Wholesale Inventories, January (10:00): 0.3% expected, 0.8% December.
3-12-03
Trade Balance, January (8:30): -$44.9B expected, -$44.2B December.
3-13-03
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 410K expected, 430K prior.
Retail sales, February (8:30): -0.2% expected, -0.9% January.
Ex autos: 0.0% expected, 1.3% prior.
3-14-03
PPI, February (8:30): 0.7% expected, 1.6% January
Core PPI (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.9% prior.
Business inventories, January (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.6% December
Current account, Q4 (8:30): -$136.5B expected, -$127.0B Q3
Industrial production, February (9:15): 0.2% expected, 0.7% January
Capacity utilization, February (9:15): 75.7% expected, 75.7% January.
Michigan sentiment, preliminary, March (9:45): 78.5 expected, 79.9 February.
SUBSCRIBER QUESTIONS
Q: My question is when a stock starts to pull back from the target point but almost at it within say 75 cents, when do you know that it time to take profit or to let it go for another leg up? Do you look at the volume and as long as its pulling put is below the average volume, or do you focus more on the MVA and if so what's the best MVA to watch. Thanks for all the great information. Wish I had found out about you guys couple of years ago would have saved me a lot of money. Keep up the GREAT JOB.
A: Targets are best estimates of how far a stock can run on a particular move. Thus a stock can get close to a target but not quite reach it. What we look at is how well it has worked on the price and volume action on the way up. A strong volume move up on strong volume that is early in a run (the first breakout, the first test of the breakout) makes us inclined to let it pullback some and try another run. If the pullback is on much lower volume that is what we want to see. We want to see it hold at the near support, and on these plays that is usually the 10 day or 18 day MVA.
We also look at the type of play. If we are looking to capitalize on a run up to a resistance level, we will be very inclined to take the gain if it hits near the resistance/target and starts to fade. On option plays we will also look at taking the gain on such a move up to the target that fades unless we have longer term options (still 2 full months minimum left) and the pattern is one that can continue to advance after a short pullback (e.g., breakout from a solid pattern). As always, the market makes some of the decision for us; in a weak market on an upside run we would be more inclined to take the gain. More inclined but not necessarily automatic. There are several stocks that continue to work to the upside well in this market.
SEMINARS ON CD
There is an incredible wealth of knowledge, years of experience, and 'how to' plans of action in these seminars. As one graduate put it, "I had no idea how little I knew about market direction and the reasons behind it until I took your course." Our graduates over the past year and one-half have made the bear market in stocks their own private second bull market because they learned how to and when to enter the downside and make dramatic profit from what most investors dread. Have the knowledge to take advantage of any kind of market as well as the confidence to act when you see the action unfold. We cover it all from trends, to accumulation/distribution, patterns, stocks, buying and selling options naked, covered, or creating spreads. Go to
http://www.stockseminarsonline.com
This is Jon Johnson's own site devoted exclusively to seminars designed to teach you what you need to know about the stock market and stock movement and how to take advantage of those moves without incurring the usual high costs of travel and related expenses usually associated with seminars.
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers.
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 02/04/2003
CGNX (Cognex--$22.39; -0.33; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cgnx.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Solid volume surge late last week, then CGNX pulled back fractionally on lower volume in the Monday selling. Still solid, and if it makes a higher low here (18 day at 22.05) that would be a positive. Looking for a breakout on strong volume.
Volume: 558.517K Avg Volume: 354.727K
BUY POINT: $23.09 Volume=525K Target=$26.88 Stop=$21.47
POSITION: QCG ED - May $20c (65 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cgnx.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/05/2003
EXPE (Expedia--$68.66; -1.73; optionable): Internet travel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/expe.html
STATUS: Pre-split. Nice test of the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. EXPE is holding up very well in the market, and we are looking for a strong bounce from here on volume. The aggressive can move in earlier if the volume kicks in.
Volume: 1.855M Avg Volume: 2.079M
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $69.05; Next: $70.55 Volume=2.5M Target=$78 Stop=$66.55
POSITION: UED GN - July $70c (55 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/expe.html
Play Date: 03/01/2003
XTO (XTO Energy--$26.03; +0.22; optionable): Independent oil and gas. Splits 4:3 on 3-19-03.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Tried to make the strong move Monday, hitting 26.48 on the high and then pulling back to close right at 26. Money flow remains strong, and of course relative strength is breaking out given the solid upside move in a down market. Looking for a further move over 26 on much stronger volume to really get the move underway.
Volume: 928.5K Avg Volume: 830.909K
BUY POINT: New: $26.15 (orig. $25.55) Volume=1.2M Target=$28.75 Stop=$24.33
POSITION: XTO EX - May $22.50c (91 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xto.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AAII 02/25 PreSplt 20.74 -0.57 22.05 25.94 332K 372K 20.51
Buy Not Issued.
ADVP 03/04 Cup hdl 28 -0.66 28.55 32.84 868K 1.8M 26.55
Buy Not Hit.
AIG 02/20 Put 45.33 -2.55 49.48 46 6.8M 6M 51.25
Buy Not Issued.
ALN 01/18 Test BO 12.62 -0.61 13.41 16.85 624K 450K 12.25
Buy Not Issued.
ALN 11/09 Test BO 12.62 -0.61 7.28 14 624K 200K 12.45
Current.
AMZN 01/09 Test 50 22.88 -0.09 22.72 27.25 4.4M 13M 20.75
Buy Not Issued.
AMZN 10/21 Cup hdl 22.88 -0.09 20.32 24.38 4.4M 10M 20.75
Current.
ANPI 03/08 PreSplt 39.62 -0.58 40.33 45.85 132K 156K 37.96
Buy Not Hit.
APOL 02/18 A Wedge 45.92 -0.47 46.25 52.88 1.2M 22M 44.25
Current.
ARRO 02/15 Test 50 41.52 +0.02 42.12 48.42 19K 55K 39.65
Buy Not Issued.
ASL 02/04 Cup hdl 6.12 -0.28 6.65 8.15 591K 700K 6.18
Current.
AVCT 02/13 Test BO 26.64 -0.61 28.45 31.15 580K 725K 26.46
Current.
BRL 01/27 Test 18 74.84 +0.54 77.78 88 391K 875K 72.34
CCU 02/24 Put 33.12 -1.64 35.77 31.75 2.9M 4.8M 37.15
Buy Not Issued.
CECO 02/15 Cup hdl 46.86 -0.85 48.07 54 358K 1.4M 45.74
Buy Not Hit.
CGNX 02/04 DB hdl 22.39 -0.33 23.09 26.88 559K 525K 21.47
Buy Not Issued.
CKFR 01/28 Cup hdl 19.4 -0.6 20.85 25 879K 2M 18.94
Buy Not Issued.
COH 02/25 Flat 35.82 -0.73 35.5 41.25 642K 1.3M 33.72
Current.
COO 02/22 Cup 28.43 -0.71 28.55 32.75 375K 706K 26.55
Buy Not Issued.
CTSH 03/06 PreSplt 67.89 -1.67 70.62 79 784K 1M 67.75
Buy Not Hit.
CVD 12/21 Cup hdl 21.22 -0.91 24.75 29.74 383K 581K 24.25
Current.
CVD 11/05 Test BO 21.22 -0.91 23.65 28 383K 581K 24.88
Current.
DAKT 02/24 Test BO 16.71 +0.53 16.12 19.35 113K 227K 15.45
Current.
DNEX 02/27 BO 32.69 -0.21 33.55 38.58 85K 150K 31.94
Buy Not Issued.
EBAY 03/08 BO 79.46 -0.44 80.08 92 4.1M 8M 77.04
Buy Not Hit.
ELAB 03/06 Cup hdl 23.48 -0.39 24.06 28.88 111K 325K 22.38
Buy Not Hit.
ERES 01/30 Cup hdl 23.37 -0.04 21.55 24.45 303K 436K 21.48
Current.
EXPD 02/24 Cup 33.47 -0.51 34.25 39.49 1M 1.1M 33.15
Current.
EXPE 03/05 Cup 68.66 -1.73 70.55 78 1.9M 2.5M 66.55
Buy Not Hit.
EXPE 02/22 PreSplt 68.66 -1.73 67.97 76.45 1.9M 3M 64.94
Current.
EXPE 11/30 A Wedge 68.66 -1.73 78.25 88 1.9M 3.2M 64.94
Current.
FBC 02/01 Cup hdl 24.25 -0.21 23.85 26.85 82K 199K 22.38
Buy Not Issued.
FBC 01/07 Cup hdl 24.25 -0.21 23.35 26.85 82K 199K 23.74
Current.
FCN 02/20 A Wedge 43.95 -0.05 43.6 49.35 203K 400K 42.55
Current.
FIC 02/22 Test 18 45.05 -1.78 48.78 53.65 364K 550K 46.19
Exited.
GSOF 03/04 Cup hdl 16.3 +0.31 17.05 20.55 88K 164K 15.86
Buy Not Hit.
HAR 03/01 Saucer 54.9 -2.8 63.74 72 928K 435K 59.28
Buy Not Issued.
HPQ 03/01 Put 15.49 -0.31 15.62 13 7.5M 14M 16.32
Buy Not Issued.
ICST 03/05 DB hdl 22.61 -0.58 23.65 27 1M 2M 21.99
Buy Not Issued.
IMCL 03/01 Test BO 15.25 -0.45 14.6 16.72 2.5M 2M 14.05
Current.
INSP 03/04 Cup hdl 11.09 -0.25 12.42 14.95 181K 425K 11.15
Buy Not Hit.
INSP 02/08 Cup hdl 11.09 -0.25 11.65 13.85 181K 425K 10.85
Current.
JDEC 02/22 Put 11.07 -0.38 11.6 9 436K 1.5M 12.18
Buy Not Issued.
JEC 03/05 Cup hdl 37.8 -0.43 38.75 44.55 154K 374K 36.55
Buy Not Hit.
LGTO 02/22 A Wedge 5.76 -0.22 6.42 8.25 966K 2M 5.88
Buy Not Hit.
LLTC 03/01 BO 29.14 -0.89 31.21 35.12 4.5M 7M 29.03
Buy Not Issued.
MACR 03/05 Test 18 14.74 -0.05 15.35 18 431K 800K 14.28
Buy Not Hit.
MVL 03/03 BO 12.76 +0.06 11.82 14.25 791K 675K 11.15
Current.
MYL 01/22 Test BO 27.4 -0.5 26.57 31.88 1.1M 1.2M 27.05
Current.
NDC 03/08 Saucer 21.61 -0.42 22.22 25 220K 300K 20.66
Buy Not Hit.
PKTR 03/03 BO 8.95 -0.85 9.76 11.88 301K 340K 8.92
Exited.
PRX 02/08 BO 38.12 -0.78 34.65 40.45 311K 435K 36.05
QCOM 12/04 Test 18 34.24 -0.94 40.85 50 14M 18M 37
Current.
QCOM 11/07 Test BO 34.24 -0.94 34.78 42 14M 18M 37
Current.
QLGC 11/07 Test BO 34.94 -1.02 41.4 50 4.6M 25M 39.88
RNBO 02/27 DB hdl 9.21 +0.33 8.45 10.25 209K 161K 8.15
Current.
SBL 02/26 Test BO 10.25 -0.3 10.45 12.25 819K 2M 9.72
Current.
SBUX 03/06 Cup hdl 22.47 -0.42 23.74 28.44 3.4M 5M 22.08
Buy Not Hit.
SRCL 03/08 A Wedge 34.71 -0.96 36.55 41 264K 629K 34.45
Buy Not Hit.
STN 01/04 Rv H&S 18.95 -0.45 19.05 22.86 652K 600K 17.72
Current.
SYMC 01/09 Test 50 43.83 +0.29 46.3 51 4.5M 4.1M 45.45
Current.
TTC 02/25 Test BO 68.14 +0.11 68.85 76.55 59K 137K 65.35
Current.
UOPX 03/04 Cup hdl 37.99 -0.2 37.96 43.75 136K 300K 35.32
Buy Not Hit.
VAR 12/18 Rv H&S 49.79 -0.97 50.25 58 410K 700K 49.15
Current.
VIA 02/15 Put 34.74 -1.48 37.05 33.85 210K 485K 38.35
Buy Not Issued.
VSEA 02/26 Put 20.51 -0.74 25.65 22 1.4M 1M 27.15
WCN 02/22 Put 32.85 -0.22 33.38 30 240K 425K 34.35
Buy Not Issued.
WFR 02/22 Flat 8.66 -0.34 9.35 11.25 89K 217K 8.59
Buy Not Hit.
XTO 03/01 PreSplt 26.03 +0.22 25.55 28.75 928K 1.2M 24.33
Buy Not Hit.
ZMH 02/06 DB hdl 44.41 -0.8 42.65 50.88 654K 1.6M 43.45
Current.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock recommendation
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