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us stock market, stock watch
Begin Part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good moves: ERES; IMCL; WFR
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers.
NEW PLAYS: Additional plays can be found in Pre-Announcements, Pre-Splits, and Post-Splits.
Upside:
Play Date: 03/18/2003
ANSS (Ansys--$24.25; +0.88; optionable): Technical and system software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anss.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. ANSS is starting the breakout from the handle to its 10-month base that shows positive accumulation at 8 up weeks on rising volume to 4 down weeks on rising volume. Money flow has been rising and is now overtaking the stock price. Volume has been very low the past three weeks as it should be in the handle. ANSS was rallying Tuesday on a sharp volume increase that moved up to average on the trade. Looks solid and looking to pick it up on the break higher if volume continues to run.
Volume: 160.487K Avg Volume: 128.772K
BUY POINT: $24.42 Volume=190K Target=$29 Stop=$22.71
POSITION: QUS GX - July $22.50c (67 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/anss.html
Play Date: 03/18/2003
COGN (Cognos--$25.22; +0.82; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cogn.html
STATUS: Double bottom. COGN is working through a 2.5 month double bottom, breaking hard through the 'hump' (24.66) on a very strong volume surge. This is part of a larger base that started last March. Nice base on base pattern with relative strength breaking out on this move. It may form a handle here as it approaches the December high (26.18), moving laterally and slightly lower below that level. Given the strength of the move, we are willing to open a partial position as it clears the Tuesday high (the point that may act as the breakout point if a handle forms as we suspect). Then if it forms a handle at a higher point we can then add to the position on a breakout from that point.
Volume: 2.271M Avg Volume: 873.181K
BUY POINT: $25.55 Volume=1.3M Target=$29.88 Stop=$23.76
POSITION: CRQ HX - Aug. $22.50c (74 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cogn.html
Play Date: 03/18/2003
JCOM (J2 Global Communications--$24.99; +1.46; optionable): Internet
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jcom.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Trying to make the breakout from the handle to its 4.5 month base. Excellent accumulation in the base at 6 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume. JCOM used its 50 day MVA just over 20 as support in the handle, and Tuesday it raced higher on an excellent jump in above average volume. Looking for the breakout.
Volume: 493.089K Avg Volume: 274.409K
BUY POINT: $25.28 Volume=412K Target=$30 Stop=$23.38
POSITION: JQF FX - June $22.50c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jcom.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Upside:
Play Date: 03/04/2003
ADVP (AdvancePCS--$29.73; +0.03; optionable): Health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/advp.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Strong move Monday on excellent volume, ADVP took a breather Tuesday on lower, average volume. It could edge back over the next session or two, holding near the breakout. That would be a good point to add to positions when it starts up from the test on rising volume.
Volume: 1.395M Avg Volume: 1.253M
BUY POINT: New: Test 29, then $29.25 (orig. $28.55). Volume=1.8M Target=$32.84 Stop=$26.55
POSITION: QVD FY - June $27.50c (57 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/advp.html
Play Date: 02/15/2003
ARRO (Arrow Intl.--$42.15; +0.2; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/arro.html
STATUS: Flat. Big volume surge Tuesday as ARRO showed a tight doji that reached down to the 10 day MVA on the low (41.63) and rebounded. Accumulation in the short but solid base is 3 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume. Money flow continues to lead the way and the volume surge puts us on the ready for the breakout.
Volume: 60.9K Avg Volume: 30.5K
BUY POINT: $42.25 Volume=55K Target=$48.42 Stop=$39.65
POSITION: QRO HH - Aug. $40c (64 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/arro.html
Play Date: 02/04/2003
CGNX (Cognex--$23.98; -0.36; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cgnx.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Nice surge Monday though volume was not super. Tuesday CGNX tested back some on slightly lower volume, showing good action with a test lower intraday and a nice recovery. Looking for a bit of rest in this range as the market takes a breather and then another surge up on volume.
Volume: 393.015K Avg Volume: 356.454K
BUY POINT: $23.09 Volume=525K Target=$26.88 Stop=$21.47
POSITION: QCG ED - May $20c (65 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cgnx.html
Play Date: 02/27/2003
DNEX (Dionex--$33.58; +0.76; no options): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dnex.html
STATUS: Flat. Volume started to surge Monday, and DNEX started to make its move Tuesday on continued above average volume. Super money flow is leading the way higher.
Volume: 116.802K Avg Volume: 90.318K
BUY POINT: $33.68 Volume=150K Target=$38.58 Stop=$31.94
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dnex.html
Play Date: 03/01/2003
IMCL (Imclone--$16.28; +1.19; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/imcl.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Patience paid off as IMCL shot higher Tuesday on a nice volume surge. It is resuming the move higher. Can make $3 a pop on these moves. Can still take positions here but it is aggressive.
Volume: 2.661M Avg Volume: 1.662M
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $16.35 (orig. $15.55; $14.60). Volume=2M Target=New: $18; orig. $16.72 Stop=$14.05
POSITION: QCI HV - Aug. $12.50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/imcl.html
Play Date: 03/08/2003
NDC (NDC Health--$22.54; +0.15; optionable): Management services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ndc.html
STATUS: Saucer. NDC is edging higher, making the breakout point on good, above average volume the past two sessions, but not giving the definitive move higher. It showed a doji Tuesday and it may move laterally for a couple more sessions before making the move. In any event, it is close and we are going to watch it closely for the move. Accumulation at 2 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume.
Volume: 392.5K Avg Volume: 241.59K
BUY POINT: New: $22.75 (orig. $22.22) Volume=300K Target=$26 Stop=$20.66
POSITION: NDC HD - Aug. $20c (70 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ndc.html
Play Date: 03/15/2003
NSM (National Semiconductor--$19.16; +0.36; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nsm.html
STATUS: Testing the 200 day. Nice move Monday on solid volume and edged higher Tuesday on lower though average volume. May take another breather the next session or two, but still in very good shape over the 200 day MVA (17.47). A pullback that holds over 18 and starts back up will be another good entry point.
Volume: 2.656M Avg Volume: 2.316M
BUY POINT: $18.28 Volume=3M Target=$21.45 Stop=$16.94
POSITION: NSM HW - Aug. $17.50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nsm.html
Play Date: 03/15/2003
QLGC (Qlogic--$40.18; +0.19; optionable): Storage networks
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qlgc.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Broke over the near term down trendline (December/January) on a huge volume surge Monday. Tuesday it tested the trendline on the low (39.40) and bounced back up. Volume was lower on the test. Very nice action, and after another session or so of lateral movement will set it up for the next move.
Volume: 8.886M Avg Volume: 8.735M
BUY POINT: Test back 39.50, then a turn up on volume. Volume=11M Target=$44.88 Stop=$35.94
POSITION: QLC GU - July $37.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/qlgc.html
Play Date: 02/27/2003
RNBO (Rainbow Technologies--$9.78; +0.14; optionable): Security software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rnbo.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still moving on above average volume after the strong volume breakout Thursday, but RNBO is not making a lot of headway thus far. A wilder day Tuesday, tapping 9 on the low and 10 on the high. May drift back toward 9 again as the market calms before the war. Then on a move back up is the next entry point.
Volume: 224.26K Avg Volume: 130.59K
BUY POINT: New: Test toward 9, then 9.22 on the way back up (orig. $8.45) Volume=161K Target=New: $11.24; orig. $10.25 Stop=$8.45
POSITION: BQO GU - July $7.50c (67 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rnbo.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/15/2003
JCI (Johnson Controls--$75.81; -0.18; optionable): Auto controller systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jci.html
STATUS: Put. JCI blasted higher Monday on volume then tried to move over the 18 day MVA (76.35) intraday but rolled over. Volume was lower but still above average. Need to see it volume ramp up on the move back down as it resumes its downtrend as the auto sector struggles.
Volume: 708.6K Avg Volume: 566.636K
BUY POINT: $73.96 Volume=700K Target=$70 Stop=$75.25
POSITION: JCI SO - July $75p (-49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jci.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Continued:
Play Date: 03/13/2003
BSX (Boston Scientific--$45.97; 0; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 5-6-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the announcement
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 8-27-98 at a stock price of $40. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-7-02. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bsx.html
STATUS: Cup. Big move Monday, then a rest Tuesday on lower, below average volume. Looking for a lateral move around 46 the next couple of sessions, then a further move up. Looking nice and may form a handle here.
Volume: 2.34M Avg Volume: 2.305M
BUY POINT: New: $46.75 (top of handle); orig. $44.55 Volume=3.4M Target=$50.55 Stop=$41.65
POSITION: BSX HV - Aug. $42.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bsx.html
Play Date: 02/15/2003
CECO (Career Education--$48.54; -0.71; optionable): Education and training. Forecast to announce a split on 4-8-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the announcement.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 4-31-01 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $61. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-11-02 at which time authorized shares were increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceco.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. CECO made the price move Monday but volume did not follow, coming in at average. Tuesday it tested back toward the breakout point (48.14 on the low) and rebounded some. Looking for a move back up on the proper volume.
Volume: 700.735K Avg Volume: 694.772K
BUY POINT: New: $48.75 (orig. $48.07) Volume=1.4M Target=$54 Stop=$45.74
POSITION: CUY TI - July $45c (58 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ceco.html
Play Date: 03/08/2003
EBAY (Ebay--$88.08; +1.08; optionable): Internet auctions, sales. Forecast to announce a split April 22 after the market close in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: EBAY announced a 3:1 stock split 1-26-99 and then a 2:1 stock split in April 2000 at a stock price of $140.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ebay.html
STATUS: New high breakout. Continues to move up on above average volume. This has been a strong move and it will need a test at some point. Cannot complain at this point as we still wait for the next entry point.
Volume: 8.097M Avg Volume: 5.388M
BUY POINT: No new positions now until get a test back (orig. $80.08) Volume=8M Target=$92 Stop=$77.04
POSITION: QXB GP - July $80c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ebay.html
Play Date: 02/20/2003
FCN (FTI Consulting--$44.07; -0.25; optionable): Management services. Announced a 3:2 split Monday with a pay date of 5-7.
BACKGROUND: Last split 2:1 on 1-17-2002.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fcn.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Nice move Monday on continued above average volume, but then faded back a fraction Tuesday on lower, slightly below average volume. Held above the 10 day MVA on the low (43.75) and rebounded some. Looking for a continued move up on returning volume. Outstanding 6 to 0 accumulation in the base.
Volume: 271.4K Avg Volume: 241.363K
BUY POINT: New: $44.55 (orig. $42.96) Volume=400K Target=$48.38 Stop=$40.15
POSITION: FCN FH - June $40c (66 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fcn.html
IGT (International Game Technology--$82.77; +0.73; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 4-22-03 during the market in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that IGT has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 3-4-02 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/igt.html
STATUS: Rolling. Big blast higher Monday on a volume surge and continued the move Tuesday with a gap on continued above average volume. Such a strong move begs something of a test back toward the breakout. We will use a test as an entry point.
Volume: 1.413M Avg Volume: 1.062M
BUY POINT: New: Test toward 80 the next session or two, then up on volume (orig. $80.06) Volume=1.2M Target=$88 Stop=$77.74
POSITION: IGT GO - July $75c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/igt.html
Play Date: 03/11/2003
SYK (Stryker--$69.26; -1.02; optionable): Medical instruments. Working on a date for SYK
BACKGROUND: Last split 2:1 5/15/2000. Price at the time of announcement was $60.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/syk.html
STATUS: Cup. Shot higher Monday on a huge volume surge, then tested back Tuesday on much lower though still above average volume. Solid accumulation at 2 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume. Very strong money flow leading the way. After such a strong move, the pullback is okay, and we are looking for another breather Wednesday, maybe Thursday, and then another move up.
Volume: 960.9K Avg Volume: 703.318K
BUY POINT: Test toward 68, then 68.25 on the move back up (orig. $65.55) Volume=800K Target=$73.75 Stop=$63.94
POSITION: SYK IM - Sept. $65c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/syk.html
Play Date: 02/25/2003
TTC (Toro--$68.4; -0.14; optionable): Motorized farm and home tools. Just announced earnings and looking trying to pinpoint a date. Announcements sometimes come after successful earnings reports, and TTC had a good one.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/ttc.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still moving laterally in a month-long flat base, holding over 68 as it does. Volume has surged back up over average Monday and Tuesday. Like to see that volume ramp up.
Volume: 120.3K Avg Volume: 86.5K
BUY POINT: New: $69.55 (orig. $68.85) Volume=137K Target=$76.55 Stop=$65.35
POSITION: TTC FM - June $65c (72 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ttc.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 01/27/2003
BRL (Barr Labs--$51.92; -0.47; optionable): Generic drugs. Split Tuesday 3:2.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brl.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. Strong move up to the split as we were looking for. Tuesday BRL gapped higher and then sold back. That is not a great sign for a pre-split play, but if BRL can hold here at 52 that is a solid point for it to rally back from.
Volume: 601.3K Avg Volume: 647.318K
BUY POINT: New: $52.65 (orig. 50.85; $50.05) Volume=875K Target=$54.69 Stop=$48.65
POSITION: IOB EJ - May $50c (71 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/brl.html
Play Date: 03/01/2003
XTO (XTO Energy--$25.22; +0.44; optionable): Independent oil and gas. Splits 4:3 on 3-19-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA (24.75). Got a bit wild Tuesday, gapping down to 24 and then rebounding hard. May run through the split as the small oil and gas stocks did fine even as oil price falls. Aggressive into the split, but a nice recovery.
Volume: 1.635M Avg Volume: 825.318K
BUY POINT: $25.55 Volume=1.2M Target=$28.75 Stop=$24.33
POSITION: XTO EX - May $22.50c (91 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xto.html
POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Continued:
Play Date: 03/08/2003
ANPI (Angiotech Pharmaceutical--$21.22; +0.25; optionable): Drug manufacturer
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anpi.html
STATUS: Breakout. Moving laterally right at 21. Volume was above average on the Thursday and Monday moves. Tested 20.30, the 10 day MVA on the low and rallied back. Trying to clear some resistance at 21 from back in September. Looking for volume to spike up on the next move to give is a clear buy point.
Volume: 187.3K Avg Volume: 227.363K
BUY POINT: New: 21.55 (orig. $20.74) Volume=156K Target=$24 Stop=$19.88
POSITION: AUJ FD - June $20c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/anpi.html
Play Date: 03/04/2003
GSOF (Group 1 Software--$15.5; -0.35; no options): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gsof.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Testing down to the 50 day MVA (14.99) with mixed price/volume action. It may be a shakeout in the handle; with the strong accumulation to support it, we will keep an eye on it for a strong jump off the 50 day for a breakout.
Volume: 118.372K Avg Volume: 104.681K
BUY POINT: $17.05 Volume=164K Target=$20.55 Stop=$15.86
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gsof.html
Play Date: 03/08/2003
SRCL (Stericycle--$37.89; +0.48; optionable): Waste management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/srcl.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Came to life Monday on a big volume surge. Tried to continue the move Tuesday as volume surged even more. It ran up to 38.79 on the high but then fell back to show a tight doji on that strong volume. A doji on high volume such as that indicates a turn back down to test the move. We are looking at it testing 36.50 to 37, the November and January highs and then a move up on continued strong volume.
Volume: 1.144M Avg Volume: 355.59K
BUY POINT: Test of 37, then $37.35 (orig. $36.55) Volume=629K Target=$41 Stop=$34.45
POSITION: URL EG - May $35c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/srcl.html
Play Date: 03/04/2003
UOPX (University of Phoenix Online--$39.79; +0.31; optionable): Internet education
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uopx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Has moved up to the January high at 40 with some swelling volume. Good to see volume rise as a stock moves toward the breakout point. It appears that 40 is acting as the resistance level that needs to be beaten. It still may test back to 38 again (18 day MVA). That move followed by a volume surge on a turn back up will be a good entry point. A break over 40 on volume will be another. Accumulation at 2 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume. Earnings are released on 3-25.
Volume: 218.507K Avg Volume: 202.954K
BUY POINT: New: Test of 38, then 38.45 on rising volume (orig. $37.96). After that a break over 40. Volume=300K Target=$43.75 initial Stop=$35.32
POSITION: UBY FG - June $35c (68 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/uopx.html
End Part 2 of 3
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us stock market
stock watch
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