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us stock market, stock trading
Begin Part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good moves: AMZN; APOL; BCGI; BRL; EBAY; EXPD; IGT; JCOM; SRCL; STN
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers.
NEW PLAYS: Additional plays can be found in Pre-Announcements, Pre-Splits, and Post-Splits.
Upside:
Play Date: 03/20/2003
CMVT (Comverse Technology--$11.79; +0.04; optionable): Telecom processing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmvt.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Coming off of its long, deep base, CMVT has formed a very nice 3.5 month base sporting excellent accumulation at 4 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume. It is one of those stocks that has moved laterally in a nice, lower volume consolidation of the recent move up the right side of the base. Volume swelled as it moved up just as it should. Money flow is surging up ahead of the price.
Volume: 2.52M Avg Volume: 2.415M
BUY POINT: $12.11 Volume=3.5M Target=$14.55 Stop=$11.26
POSITION: CQV GB - July $10c (81 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmvt.html
Play Date: 03/20/2003
DCLK (Doubleclick--$7.3; +0.01; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dclk.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle, Ascending triangle. Whatever pattern you want to call it, the accumulation is solid at 6 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume as DCLK works through its 4-month base. After surging to 7.60 on a nice volume swell to complete the right side of the base DCLK has backed off the past two sessions to test the 10 day MVA on the Thursday low (7.08) and bouncing right back up. Volume as it turned back up rose to slightly above average. Money flow is surging up ahead of the stock. Internets are again attracting a lot of attention.
Volume: 767.451K Avg Volume: 682.863K
BUY POINT: $7.65 Volume=1M Target=$9.25 Stop=$7.11
POSITION: QWE GU - July $7.50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dclk.html
Play Date: 03/20/2003
SOHU (Sohu.com--$9.5; +0.58; optionable): Internet overseas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sohu.html
STATUS: Double bottom. SOHU made us some excellent money in the last part of 2002 on through January 2003, but then faded back to from this current 2-month base. It needed this base after such a strong move, using 7 as support for the pattern. Accumulation is excellent at 4 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume. Money flow is outstanding and SOHU is breaking up through the 'hump' in the middle of the pattern (9.63). Looking for a strong volume break through that level.
Volume: 453.515K Avg Volume: 651.681K
BUY POINT: $9.69 Volume=800K Target=$11.75 Stop=$9.01
POSITION: UZK FU - June $7.50c (78 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sohu.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Upside:
Play Date: 03/20/2003
ADI (Analog Devices--$30.22; -0.46; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adi.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Moving through a 3.5 month base, now forming a handle the past three sessions. ADI has moved laterally for three sessions below 31, holding 30 on the low. Money flow is up ahead of the stock price, leading the way higher even as ADI moves laterally in this handle.
Volume: 5.183M Avg Volume: 3.089M
BUY POINT: $31.06 Volume=4.5M Target=$35.65 Stop=$28.89
POSITION: ADI FE - June $25c (79 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/adi.html
Play Date: 03/19/2003
ACTL (Actel--$18.48; -0.03; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/actl.html
STATUS: Testing the trendline break. ACTL surged up over the May 2002/January 2003 down trendline4 sessions back and the past three sessions has moved laterally on lower, below average volume, trading in a tight range. Nice move that many of the semis are making.
Volume: 140.679K Avg Volume: 236.863K
BUY POINT: $18.78 Volume=359K Target=$22.55 Stop=$17.47
POSITION: LQA FW - June $17.50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/actl.html
Play Date: 03/18/2003
JCOM (J2 Global Communications--$26.25; +1.39; optionable): Internet
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jcom.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Strong breakout move Wednesday on solid volume. That good accumulation at 6 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume set the table. It is still in good shape here and still a buy at this point.
Volume: 550.916K Avg Volume: 270.681K
BUY POINT: New: $26.45 (orig. $25.28) Volume=412K Target=$30 Stop=$23.38
POSITION: JQF FX - June $22.50c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jcom.html
Play Date: 03/20/2003
LLTC (Linear Technology--$34.05; -0.56; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lltc.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. LLTC has now formed a handle after its strong surge up the past two weeks, and it is now in a 3.5 month base with a good handle forming. Volume has actually surged the entire past week and money flow is racing up ahead of price. Relative strength has broken out. Looking for another strong surge higher.
Volume: 10.359M Avg Volume: 5.768M
BUY POINT: $34.97 Volume=7M Target=$40.48 Stop=$32.15
POSITION: LLQ HZ - Aug. $32.50c (63 delta) LLQ EZ - May $32.50c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lltc.html
Play Date: 03/20/2003
MXIM (Maxim Integrated--$39.56; 0; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mxim.html
STATUS: New buy point. Cup w/handle. MXIM has moved up to 40 and then started to move laterally at that level the past three sessions. Accumulation is solid at 3 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume. Money flow is super, surging higher and higher as MXIM moves laterally. Really like the look of it.
Volume: 11.759M Avg Volume: 7.713M
BUY POINT: $40.12 Volume=10M Target=$44.95 Stop=$37.31
POSITION: XIQ EG - May $35c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mxim.html
Play Date: 03/20/2003
NSM (National Semiconductor--$18.92; -0.09; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nsm.html
STATUS: New buy point. Cup w/handle. After a good surge up NSM has taken a breather the past three sessions, moving laterally just below 19, and holding the 10 day MVA on the low (18.05). Very solid accumulation, and we like the fact that the handle is holding above the breakout over the 200 day MVA (17.36). Money flow is super, still moving up ahead of the stock price.
Volume: 2.776M Avg Volume: 2.327M
BUY POINT: $19.32 Volume=3M Target=$23 Stop=$17.94
POSITION: NSM HW - Aug. $17.50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nsm.html
Play Date: 03/15/2003
QLGC (Qlogic--$39.82; -0.12; optionable): Data storage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qlgc.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. A nice surge over the November 2002/January 2003 down trendline 4 sessions back and is now moving laterally and slightly lower the past three sessions, holding right on top of that down trendline. Thursday QLGC showed a tight doji on top of that level as volume moved back above average. Even as QLGC moves laterally money flow is rising once again. Looking ready to make a move.
Volume: 10.473M Avg Volume: 8.68M
BUY POINT: New: $40.38 Volume=11M Target=$45 Stop=$36.13
POSITION: QLC GU - July $37.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/qlgc.html
Play Date: 03/20/2003
XLNX (Xilinx--$26.65; +0.18; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xlnx.html
STATUS: New buy point. Testing the breakout. Not wanting to make this the semiconductor report, but they are in the best patterns and XLNX is no exception. It blasted higher last week and this week is moving back on lower volume to test that breakout, holding above the 10 day MVA (25.25) as it does. Nice accumulation and very solid money flow.
Volume: 12.536M Avg Volume: 10.039M
BUY POINT: $27.25 Volume=14M Target=$33.15 Stop=$25.34
POSITION: XLQ FE - June $250c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xlnx.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Continued:
Play Date: 03/13/2003
BSX (Boston Scientific--$46.82; +0.45; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 5-6-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the announcement
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 8-27-98 at a stock price of $40. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-7-02. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bsx.html
STATUS: Cup. After two more or less lateral moves, BSX was heading higher again Thursday. We were looking at it hard and almost bit, but the volume, though higher, was just not there. It hit 47.21 on the high and peeled back some, but nothing major. We really wanted to see more volume on this move. Might get a test back to 46 given the below average volume move, and if it does and can turn back up there on stronger volume, that will be the entry point.
Volume: 2.326M Avg Volume: 2.329M
BUY POINT: New: Test of 46, then $46.75 (top of handle); orig. $44.55 Volume=3.4M Target=$50.55 Stop=$41.65
POSITION: BSX HV - Aug. $42.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bsx.html
Play Date: 02/15/2003
CECO (Career Education--$50.21; +1.28; optionable): Education and training. Forecast to announce a split on 4-8-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the announcement.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 4-31-01 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $61. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-11-02 at which time authorized shares were increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceco.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. CECO continues to move higher, but unlike other education stocks, it has not attracted much volume as it moves. Another play we were looking hard at, but after such a long move in the market we were not interested without some strong volume.. What we will do is look for a test back toward the 10 day MVA once again back near 48.25 and then see if some volume comes in on the reversal back to the upside.
Volume: 692.678K Avg Volume: 685.318K
BUY POINT: New: Test 48ish, then $48.75 (orig. $48.07) Volume=1.4M Target=$54 Stop=$45.74
POSITION: CUY TI - July $45c (58 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ceco.html
Play Date: 03/08/2003
EBAY (Ebay--$89.15; +1.28; optionable): Internet auctions, sales. Forecast to announce a split April 22 after the market close in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: EBAY announced a 3:1 stock split 1-26-99 and then a 2:1 stock split in April 2000 at a stock price of $140.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ebay.html
STATUS: New high breakout. Still working higher, giving us nice gains. At some point it will give us another entry point, most likely a test of the 10 day MVA near 85.
Volume: 7.345M Avg Volume: 5.424M
BUY POINT: No new positions now until get a test back (orig. $80.08) Volume=8M Target=$92 Stop=$77.04
POSITION: QXB GP - July $80c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ebay.html
Play Date: 02/20/2003
FCN (FTI Consulting--$44.02; +0.02; optionable): Management services. Announced a 3:2 split Monday with a pay date of 5-7.
BACKGROUND: Last split 2:1 on 1-17-2002.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fcn.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. FCN is still tightening up below 44 as it ahs been doing for the past month. Volume the past four sessions has faded as the trading range tightens. A large, tight doji Thursday that tested the 18 day MVA on the low (43.45). FCN is going to have to make its move soon or it risks testing lower. Still a good pattern. Excellent 6 to 0 accumulation in the base.
Volume: 205.9K Avg Volume: 242.409K
BUY POINT: New: $44.55 (orig. $42.96) Volume=400K Target=$48.38 Stop=$40.15
POSITION: FCN FH - June $40c (66 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fcn.html
IGT (International Game Technology--$84.91; +1.77; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 4-22-03 during the market in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that IGT has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 3-4-02 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/igt.html
STATUS: Rolling. Nice. Surging higher on much stronger, above average volume after a two-session lateral move. Never gave the test back to 80. Glad we were able to get some positions. As with EBAY, IGT will at some point provide another entry point, most likely a test toward the 10 day MVA at some point in the next week.
Volume: 1.659M Avg Volume: 1.077M
BUY POINT: New: Waiting for a test toward 82. (orig. $80.06) Volume=1.2M Target=$88 Stop=$77.74
POSITION: IGT GO - July $75c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/igt.html
Play Date: 03/11/2003
SYK (Stryker--$69.09; -0.11; optionable): Medical instruments. Working on a date for SYK
BACKGROUND: Last split 2:1 5/15/2000. Price at the time of announcement was $60.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/syk.html
STATUS: Cup. SYK is continuing to work on the consolidation of that strong move. It is working back toward the 10 day MVA (67.75) and may give another test of 68 before moving back up to continue the breakout. That is the next entry point. Solid accumulation at 2 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume. Very strong money flow still leading the way.
Volume: 1.029M Avg Volume: 722.318K
BUY POINT: Test toward 68, then 68.25 on the move back up (orig. $65.55) Volume=800K Target=$73.75 Stop=$63.94
POSITION: SYK IM - Sept. $65c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/syk.html
Play Date: 02/25/2003
TTC (Toro--$69.78; +0.28; optionable): Motorized farm and home tools. Just announced earnings and looking trying to pinpoint a date. Announcements sometimes come after successful earnings reports, and TTC had a good one.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/ttc.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. TTC is trying to show some life in its month-long flat consolidation, moving up off the 18 day MVA (68.29) Wednesday and pushing further Thursday on some rising though still below average volume. Volume was up, but it was not the breakout strength needed. Needs to give us a clear breakout of this range on strong volume before we add positions.
Volume: 80.8K Avg Volume: 86.363K
BUY POINT: New: $70.05 (orig. $68.85) Volume=137K Target=$76.55 Stop=$65.35
POSITION: TTC FM - June $65c (72 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ttc.html
POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/15/2003
PSUN (Pacific Sunwear--$20.23; -0.16; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/psun.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After a strong move up to clear the January high (20.11), PSUN is testing back on lower volume, holding the 10 day MVA on the Thursday low (19.70 and then bouncing back to close almost flat. Volume was back up Thursday, rising just above average as it made the rebound. That is the type of action we like to see on a breakout test, and PSUN looks like a good buy on a further move on continued volume.
Volume: 1.288M Avg Volume: 1.108M
BUY POINT: $20.4 Volume=1.6M Target=$24.25 Stop=$18.97
POSITION: PVQ FW - June $17.50c (77 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/psun.html
End Part 2 of 3
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us stock market
stock trading
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