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us stock market, trade stock
Begin Part 2 of 3
TEAM TRADES
It has been awhile since we covered trades made by the members of the team, and as we had several requests we are starting this feature back up a few times a week.
DSCM: Internet has remained strong and DSCM has been very strong. After a strong move up the short term MVA following its breakout, DSCM gave a test back to the 10 day MVA and started up slightly Thursday. That put us on alert, and sure enough Friday it gapped up on strong early volume. We were going to look for a test, but that really never came; it dipped down right after the open on some market order where some poor sap was sold out at a lower price and then shot right back up. It rallied to 3.95 and then started to move laterally, not giving up much ground. It dipped to 3.80 and we thoguth about entering, but the market was very choppy early so we decided to let things settle out more; the market was working on 8 up sessions, and we wanted to see the move was going to hold. Another bounce to 3.95 and then a dip back. Volume was solid, the market was making a higher low, so it was a go. The stock was trading 3.85 by 3.89. We put in two orders, one at 3.85 to catch it on a dip and another one at the current ask. The latter was hit. We left the other in but it was not hit. When the next did not trigger the order, we modified it and got in at the same price as the earlier trade to complete the position. This was higher than the original buy point by 30 cents or so, but the volume was huge and the action was solid. As it turned out DSCM sprinted to the close and put the play in very good shape.
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This is Jon Johnson's own site devoted exclusively to seminars designed to teach you what you need to know about the stock market and stock movement and how to take advantage of those moves without incurring the usual high costs of travel and related expenses usually associated with seminars.
THE PLAYS
Good moves: APOL; ARRO; BCGI; BLL; BRL; COH; DCLK; EXPD; DSCM; IGT; JCOM; JEC; SBUX; SRCL; SYK; TTC; VAR; ZMH
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/22/2003
GENZ (Genzyme--$36.39; +0.5; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/genz.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Working in a 9-week base, forming a lateral handle the past three sessions on some declining though still solid volume. This handle is forming right at the prior highs at 36, a very good place to consolidate for the next move as it places GENZ on top of resistance and in the open for more upside. Accumulation in the base is solid at 3 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume. All it needs is a strong upside volume day to break it free.
Volume: 3.36M Avg Volume: 3.291M
BUY POINT: $36.95 Volume=5M Target=$43.25 Stop=$34.36
POSITION: GZQ GG - July $35c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/genz.html
Play Date: 03/20/2003
GTRC (Guitar Center--$21.06; +0.56; optionable): Guitars, amps, supplies
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gtrc.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. A nice 4-month triangle making higher and higher lows below resistance at 21. Accumulation is positive at 6 up weeks on rising volume to 5 down weeks on rising volume; all it takes is net positive action. Money flow is excellent, and GTRC was moving up Friday on rising though still below average volume as it moves toward a breakout. Need to see much strong volume on that move.
Volume: 261.976K Avg Volume: 304.636K
BUY POINT: $21.25 Volume=455K Target=$25.24 Stop=$19.76
POSITION: UGR HD - Aug. $20c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gtrc.html
Play Date: 03/22/2003
UTHR (United Therapeutics--$17.1; +0.21; optionable): Drug manufacturer
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uthr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A solid leader off the fall lows, UTHR did not turn into a downtrend but used the selling to form this base that held the 200 day (15) on the low. The current 3.5 month base sports solid 6 to 1 accumulation (6 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume). It has moved laterally the past week, was a bit wild Thursday, but overall a very solid pattern. Friday volume surged well above average as UTHR started a move to take it out of the handle. It is trying to follow money flow higher as money flow is leading the way.
Volume: 313.336K Avg Volume: 139.954K
BUY POINT: $17.35 Volume=210K Target=$20.85 Stop=$16.14
POSITION: FUH HC - Aug. $15c (77 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/uthr.html
New Post-Splits
Play Date: 03/22/2003
HITK (Hi-Tech Pharmacal--$18.45; +0.75; no options): Generic drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hitk.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. HITK started forming this base almost coincident with its split back in mid-January. Accumulation in the short base is solid at 4 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume. Volume surged over the past week as HITK rallied up to form the right hand side of the base. It spent the last two days of the week working on a rather volatile handle, tapping back down to the 10 day MVA (17.30) and bouncing back. Needs a few more days to consolidate and then we look for the big breakout when that happens. Very solid pattern in an overall selling market.
Volume: 164.163K Avg Volume: 156.09K
BUY POINT: $19.35 Volume=235K Target=$23.25 Stop=$17.94
POSITION: - Stocks (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hitk.html
Play Date: 03/22/2003
ODSY (Odyssey Healthcare--$24.31; -0.33; optionable): Long-term healthcare
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/odsy.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. ODSY split in late February, right in the middle of forming this pattern. It is a short, 2-month base showing positive accumulation at 2 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume. The past week ODSY completed its move up the right side of the base on a solid, above average volume surge, and then spent the last three days of the week pulling slightly lower and laterally to form a handle that has held 24 on the low as volume fell well below average. Nice handle forming, and we are looking for ODSY to provide a breakout this week.
Volume: 277.5K Avg Volume: 340.545K
BUY POINT: $25.06 Volume=511K Target=$28.88 Stop=$23.31
POSITION: BAE GX - July $23.38c (62 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/odsy.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Upside:
Play Date: 03/20/2003
ADI (Analog Devices--$30.63; +0.41; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adi.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working on a handle to its 3.5 month base, ADI gapped higher Friday but gave back most of the gain on lower though above average volume. Money flow remains up and ahead of the stock price. Waiting for the breakout.
Volume: 3.907M Avg Volume: 3.112M
BUY POINT: $31.06 Volume=4.5M Target=$35.65 Stop=$28.89
POSITION: ADI FE - June $25c (79 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/adi.html
Play Date: 02/04/2003
CGNX (Cognex--$24.1; -0.08; optionable): Scientific & Technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cgnx.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout from the ascending triangle. Strong move out of the pattern Monday and then moving laterally the remainder of the week, holding the breakout over 32 in a tight, flat move. A bit perplexed at CGNX' failure to participate in the continued move higher, but nonetheless, the lateral move is a good one and we look for a continued breakout from this short lateral move.
Volume: 417.47K Avg Volume: 364.045K
BUY POINT: New: $24.35 (orig. $24) Volume=525K Target=$27.88 Stop=$22.24
POSITION: QCG ED - May $20c (65 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cgnx.html
Play Date: 03/20/2003
CMVT (Comverse Technology--$12.08; +0.29; optionable): Telecom processing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmvt.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Tried to make the breakout Friday, gapping higher but going no further as volume dried up and fell back below average. It is making its best move off of its long, deep base, showing excellent accumulation at 4 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume. It is one of those stocks that has moved laterally in a nice, lower volume consolidation of the recent move up the right side of the base. Money flow continues to surge ahead of the price.
Volume: 2.266M Avg Volume: 2.403M
BUY POINT: New: 12.22 (orig. $12.11) Volume=3.5M Target=$14.55 Stop=$11.26
POSITION: CQV GB - July $10c (81 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmvt.html
Play Date: 03/18/2003
COGN (Cognos--$24.8; -0.2; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cogn.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. COGN is working on a nice 3-session handle that has trailed off laterally and slightly lower as volume does the same, coming in Friday well below average. Positive 3 to 2 accumulation in the short base that has formed after a larger 10 month base lost momentum as the market sold early in the year. As a good stock will do, however, COGN did not roll down into a steep downtrend but instead formed this base, weeding out the sellers. Now we wait for the strong breakout to come from this handle.
Volume: 687.216K Avg Volume: 881.545K
BUY POINT: $25.55 Volume=1.3M Target=$29.88 Stop=$23.76
POSITION: CRQ HX - Aug. $22.50c (74 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cogn.html
Play Date: 03/20/2003
DCLK (Doubleclick--$7.69; +0.39; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dclk.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. It was late in the session when it hit, but DCLK hit the buy point on a nice volume surge as it cleared the November and January highs. Volume surged well above average on the move. A strong surge through resistance and it is still a buy at this point. Strong accumulation at 4 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume. Money flow continues to lead the way higher as internet stocks continue to attract many buyers.
Volume: 1.417M Avg Volume: 682.545K
BUY POINT: New: 7.78 (orig. $7.65) Volume=1M Target=$9.25 Stop=$7.11
POSITION: QWE GU - July $7.50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dclk.html
Play Date: 03/20/2003
LLTC (Linear Technology--$34.91; +0.86; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lltc.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Edged higher in the lateral handle Friday, trying to make the move but not the day for breakouts from semiconductors. This handle has formed right at the November high, a logical place to do so, and it is putting the finishing touches on a very nice pattern. Money flow continues to move up ahead of the price, plowing the field so to speak.
Volume: 8.499M Avg Volume: 5.867M
BUY POINT: $34.97 Volume=7M Target=$40.48 Stop=$32.15
POSITION: LLQ HZ - Aug. $32.50c (63 delta) LLQ EZ - May $32.50c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lltc.html
Play Date: 03/20/2003
MXIM (Maxim Integrated--$40.45; +0.89; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mxim.html
STATUS: New buy point. Cup w/handle. Still in the 3.5 month base, MXIM tried to move out of the handle Friday, hitting our next buy point on continued above average volume. It was not a powerful breakout, but MXIM has been one to lead the rest of the market of late. It may work laterally a bit more early this week, but MXIM remains in a very nice pattern and we wait for a stronger move to break it free for the next leg. Accumulation is solid at 4 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume. Money flow continues to run higher as the price moves laterally, a very positive sign.
Volume: 11.148M Avg Volume: 7.637M
BUY POINT: New: $40.75 (orig. $40.12) Volume=10M Target=$44.95 Stop=$37.31
POSITION: XIQ EG - May $35c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mxim.html
Play Date: 03/20/2003
NSM (National Semiconductor--$19.11; +0.19; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nsm.html
STATUS: New buy point. Cup w/handle. Still working laterally as of Friday in a nice, quiet handle on mostly lower, below average volume. The pattern is a 3.5 month cup with handle showing solid 5 to 2 accumulation. Money flow continues to ramp up sharply ahead of the price, leading the way to gains.
Volume: 2.296M Avg Volume: 2.34M
BUY POINT: $19.32 Volume=3M Target=$23 Stop=$17.94
POSITION: NSM HW - Aug. $17.50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nsm.html
Play Date: 03/19/2003
QCOM (Qualcom--$39.21; +0.6; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qcom.html
STATUS: Testing the break of the downtrend. QCOM blasted over the down trendline 7 sessions back, and then spent last week testing that move, tapping the 10 day MVA at 37.85 Thursday and rebounding off that level. It has formed something of its own handle along the lines of other tech stocks, and we look for a strong volume breakout from here. Money flow continues to move up ahead of the stock price, a positive sign.
Volume: 15.154M Avg Volume: 13.082M
BUY POINT: $39.72 Volume=20M Target=$45.25 Stop=$37.05
POSITION: AAW GU - July $37.50c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/qcom.html
Play Date: 03/15/2003
QLGC (Qlogic--$39.98; +0.16; optionable): Data storage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qlgc.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. QLGC gapped higher Friday but then immediately started to turn back. It spent the session testing the November 2002/January 2003 down trendline on its low (39.36) and rebounded some off of that level as volume fell back below average. Still looking solid in its lateral move after blasting throught he down trendline Monday. Just taking its time and setting up the next move.
Volume: 8.275M Avg Volume: 8.665M
BUY POINT: New: $40.38 Volume=11M Target=$45 Stop=$36.13
POSITION: QLC GU - July $37.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/qlgc.html
Play Date: 03/20/2003
SOHU (Sohu.com--$9.55; +0.05; optionable): Internet overseas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sohu.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Ran up to the breakout Friday, but volume was not what we wanted, and as we let SOHU work through the early volatility it settled on the close back near flat. Volume jumped up on the move, coming in just below average. SOHU looks very good in the pattern as internet stocks are again performing well. Looking for a breakout to give us another good entry point to make some more money on SOHU. Accumulation is solid at 4 up weeks on rising volume to just 1 down week on rising volume. Volume: 578.98K Avg Volume: 654.545K
BUY POINT: $9.69 Volume=800K Target=$11.75 Stop=$9.01
POSITION: UZK FU - June $7.50c (78 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sohu.html
Play Date: 03/20/2003
XLNX (Xilinx--$26.73; +0.08; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xlnx.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Surged off of the 50 day MVA (now at 22.90) 8 sessions back, XLNX spent the past four sessions moving laterally, consolidating the move as the techs took a breather from their leadership role. After this rest we expect them to resume the move, XLNX as well.
Volume: 16.772M Avg Volume: 10.123M
BUY POINT: $27.25 Volume=14M Target=$33.15 Stop=$25.34
POSITION: XLQ FE - June $250c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xlnx.html
End Part 2 of 3
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