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yahoo stock, trend trading stock
Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information.
Best Plays: DORL and KNGT made a good moves in the rally today, and we have found other new and updated plays that look interesting (KMX is in a good-looking pattern). HI is looking strong, and we are anticipating strong moves from THQI and BJ. Check out the strong moves on a couple of indexes: ready to offer some upside gains.
Best Plays:
1) HRB: Moving up in the handle.
2) KMX: At support in its breakout test.
3) OEX and DJX: Breaking out, and looking at potential entry points on a pullback.
4) THQI: Looking for a move up.
5) BJ: Ditto.
6) LNCR: The pennant looks good.
7) HI: Looking strong.
New Plays:
HRB (H&R Block--$51.07; +1.07; optionable (HRB): Diversified Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hrb.html
STATUS: Moving up on a strong shot of volume (1 million; avg. 509,409), attempting a breakout move from the handle of its 19-month cup base. Handle high is 52.39; the handle has not been the orderly pullback we like to see, but the wedging of prices as the stock posts higher lows is a good-looking pattern. Target on breakout: $58-60.
BUY POINT: 52.52, on volume of 764,000 or better. Stop loss: 52.02-52.27. A buy on the breakout up to 55.15.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $45 or $50 calls to buy (HRB GI or GJ).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/hrb.html
Updated:
NVDA (Nvidia--$65.27; +5.63; optionable (RVU): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvda.html
STATUS: Making a move up from the 200 day MVA (59.50) on stronger volume (5 million; avg. 3.7 million), breaking resistance that was just over 65. The stock bounced back from a lower-volume pullback to that support level, and we like the stronger volume, looking for a move up to breakout. NVDA is back in the range of its former handle to the 5-month cup, and we look for a move over the handle high of 71.69. Target on a breakout: $79-82.
BUY POINT: 71.82, on volume of 5.5 million or better. Stop loss: 71.32-71.57.
POSITION: Stock and/or June $65 calls to buy (RVU FM).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/nvda.html
KMX (Circuit City/Carmax--$7.60; +0.06; no options): Auto dealerships
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kmx.html
STATUS: Testing its recent strong breakout and back down at support (10 day MVA, 7.45) on low volume (89,900; avg. 123,000), the stock is in a good-looking flying plateau pattern. Looking for a breakout over resistance at 8 on renewed high volume. Huge money flow and good buying. Target: $9.
BUY POINT: 8.13, on volume of 121,000 or better. Stop loss: 7.63-7.88.
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/kmx.html
Indexes: After playing these as puts the last few weeks, the trend is changing, and the DJX and OEX broke out on strong volume. Thus, we are now focusing on the upside moves, looking for tests of the breakout for possible entry points.
OEX (Standard & Poors 100--$597.85; +16.38; optionable (OEB):
STATUS: Made a breakout move over its 18 day MVA and down trendline, but is still in its double bottom pattern. Stronger, above average volume (1.35 million; avg. 1.2 million) on the move. We are looking for a test of the 18 day MVA (590.13) and a bounce up from there if the market pulls back for the aggressive play. The "safer" entry point being a move over the high in the middle hump of the pattern (606.35). Target on a move over 606.35: $667-697.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: On a move up after a pullback to the 18 day MVA (590). Stop loss: 589.50-589.75. Breakout: 606.48, on volume of 1.8 million or better. Stop loss: 605.98-606.23.
POSITION: Aggressive: June $580 calls to buy (OEB FP). Breakout: June $600 calls to buy (OEY FT; 44 open interests).
DJX (1/100 Dj Indu--$101.03; +2.58; optionable (DJV):
STATUS: Broke out of a double-bottom pattern on strong volume (1.35 million; avg. 1.2 million), tapping at resistance on the high of 101.55 (the 50 day MVA). Buy point on the breakout was 99.42, so if the index pulls back, look for a test of that price and move back for taking possible positions.
BUY POINT: Pullback: On a move back up after a pullback to 99.42 (or higher). Stop loss: 98.92-99.17.
POSITION: Pullback: June $96 calls to buy (DJV FR).
THE PORTFOLIOS: Each report, we look at these to see which is in a buy position. We don't cover them all each time, just the ones that are looking as if they are ready to pick up a few shares.
THE LEADERS: Some of the new leaders have fallen under the pressure of the bear market and can no longer be considered top picks for such investments (ACS, LLL, NATI, ESRX). We continue to look to stocks like CPN as the new leaders, as they are holding up well. With this in mind, we must reiterate that while we are looking for any of these stocks to once again yield long-term investments when the markets turns, for now the plays for moves up in such stocks should only be considered short-term. We must focus on the stocks that are performing best in a down market as they tend to help lead when the market turns back up.
New Leaders: CPN, SGR (ESRX, NATI, LLL, ACS)
Previous Leaders: ADBE, AMCC, ARBA, BEAS, BRCD, CIEN, EMC, EXTR, GLW, JNPR, NEWP, NTAP, PMCS, SCMR, SEBL, VRSN, VRTS
ACS (Affiliated Computer--$67.98; +2.40; optionable (ACS): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acs.html
STATUS: The down trendline served as good support, springing the stock up as volume rolled in (583,200; avg. 516,000). ACS is now just cents from the February closing high of 68.40 (which can pose resistance), so we are looking for continued volume strength to break the stock over that price. Pulled off the high of 69.05, but the stock looks ready to slide back up on the momentum. In case there's a pullback look for support at 66, in the range of some recent intraday highs. Looking better all the time with high relative strength and stronger money flow. Target: $76-79.
BUY POINT: Over 69 on volume of 787,000 or better. Stop loss: 68.55-68.80.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $65 calls to buy (ACS GM).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/acs.html
CPN (Calpine--$51.88; +3.68; optionable (CPN): Electric Utilities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cpn.html
STATUS: Another gap up and over support after tanking on the PG&E bankruptcy news Friday (to the 50 day MVA at 47.42). News that Southern California Edison is getting a cash infusion (from sales of equipment) that will help pay off massive debts to power providers, not to mention good earnings for energy providers due to high cost of electricity, helped utility stocks rise. The stock tapped resistance (October high of 52.97 and some March prices) on the high of 52.70, still showing strong volume (6 million) that was slightly decreased. Look for support at the 10 day MVA (50.66) until volume surges again for a move over the resistance. Target: March high at 58.04.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 53.59 (Friday's intraday high), on volume of 8 million or better. Stop loss: 52.89-53.14.
POSITION: Aggressive: Stock and/or July $45 calls to buy (CPN GI).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cpn.html
LLL (L-3 Communctn--$86.65; +2.10; optionable (LLL): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lll.html
STATUS: Beat last night's buy point of 86, moving higher on stronger volume (638,900; avg. 464,000). The stock has potential resistance at 88.30, the February high, and then at the March high of 90.51. After running up for the last two weeks, LLL can pull back, perhaps from one of those 2 resistance levels; the use of trailing stops or stop losses can preserve gains. Looking good; relative strength remains well ahead of price, a bullish sign. Target on a move over 90.51: $99-$104.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Up from here on continued rising volume. Stop loss: 86.15-86.40. New high: Over 90.51, on volume of 863,000 or better. Stop loss: 90.01-90.26.
POSITION: Both positions: Stock and/or July $85 calls to buy (LLL GQ).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/lll.html
Previous Leaders:
ADBE (Adobe Systems Inc--$41.36; +5.53; optionable (AEQ): Application Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adbe.html
STATUS: ADBE broke out of the cup with handle (formed since mid-February) on solid volume, breaking above the 50 day MVA (36.95; volume soared to 12.2 million; avg. 6 million). A bit different in that the pattern formed at the bottom of its correction, and thus there is still overhead resistance; but, it looks to be a very good start. The company reaffirmed Tuesday its forecast for the second quarter. We will look for a pullback toward 38 as a favored entry point, followed by a strong move back up. This was a strong move, and aggressive players on a continued move can watch for potential resistance at 43-44. Target after a breakout test: $42-44.
BUY POINT: On a move back up after a test of the buy point, 38.07, on strong volume. Stop loss: 37.57-37.82.
POSITION: Stock and/or August $35 calls to buy (AEQ GG).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/adbe.html
BEAS (Bea Sys--$35.20; +6.10; optionable (BUC): Business Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/beas.html
STATUS: The stock broke resistance (18 day MVA, 30.20) on excellent volume as it gapped over its down trendline. It has shown good buying volume the last 4 days, too. Approaching resistance at the 50 day MVA (38.88), but the aggressive can play this move to that level and watch for a break of the support. The stock is looking much stronger, showing a sharp upturn in money flow and relative strength. On a pullback, watch for support at 30-32.50.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Up from here on continued strong volume. Pullback: On a move back up from 30-32.50 on strong volume.
POSITION: Both positions: Stock and/or June $30 calls to buy (BUC FF).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/beas.html
UP & COMERS PORTFOLIOS: We have added some new stocks to this portfolio: LNCR, BJ, ANF, LOW, HI and THQI. We like the patterns and their earnings numbers, and they are holding up in this market. The currently existing members (EXDS, TQNT, BVSN, SANM, PKI and GMST) are on a current watchlist we will continue to monitor for recovery when the market finally emerges from the bear market.
THQI (Thq Inc--$36.10; +0.15; optionable (QHI): Multimedia & Graphic Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/thqi.html
STATUS: Pulling back in a possible new handle to its 16-month cup base. Holding at support (18 day MVA, 35.13) the last week, the stock made a small move up Tuesday on a strong volume spike (918,500; avg. 463,227). The spike can mean a move up in the near future, so we anticipate that for a move over the March high of 39.94, the handle high. The handle is a bit choppy, but has lately settled down more satisfactorily. Target on a move over 40: $44-46.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Up from here on continued strong volume. Potential resistance at 37.44 on weaker volume. Stop loss: 35.60-35.85. Breakout: 40.07, on continued strong volume. Stop loss: 39.57-39.82.
POSITION: Aggressive: Stock and/or June $30 calls to buy (QHI FF). Breakout: Stock and/or June $35 calls to buy (QHI FG).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/thqi.html
LNCR (Lincare Holdings Inc--$56.30; +1.41; optionable (LQN)): Specialized Health Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lncr.html
STATUS: Continues to look good in the pennant pattern, as the stock moved up to close but just under its up trendline (connects Nov/Feb/Mar lows). Volume was higher, at average (633,100), so we will look for the momentum to break the stock over that potential resistance. Still looking for a breakout over the pattern high of 61.06 (upper resistance). On a pullback, look for support at the 18 day MVA (54.91) or the 50 day MVA (54.21). Target on a breakout: $67-69.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Up from here on continued strong volume. Stop loss: 55.80-56.05. Breakout: 61.19, on volume of 855,000 or better. Stop loss: 60.69-60.94.
POSITION: Aggressive: Stock and/or August $50 calls to buy (LQN HJ). Breakout: Stock and/or August $60 calls to buy (LQN HL).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/lncr.html
BJ (Bj's Wholesale Club Inc--$46.99; -0.31; optionable (BJ): Retail: Discount Stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bj.html
STATUS: Continues to look good in the pennant pattern, forming over the last several days a perfect little ascending wedge as price squeezes between resistance at 47.30 and the 10 day MVA (46.72). Threw a huge volume spike (1.6 million; avg. 675,727), which can mean a move up in the near future. The way price is moving (up to this point, on below average volume) in the pattern, looks like soon. Target: $53-55.
BUY POINT: 48.13, on continued strong volume. Stop loss: 47.63-47.88. Remains a buy on the breakout up to 50.54.
POSITION: Stock and/or June $40 calls to buy (BJ FH).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/bj.html
ANF (Abercrombie & Fitch--$36.00; +1.53;optionable (ANF): Retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anf.html
STATUS: Broke higher, beating the March closing high of 35.75 on lower volume that is still above average (1.9 million; avg. 1.5 million). The stock has been showing pretty good buying volume, and is apparently ready to move up but just needs a stronger shot; price pulled off the high of 36.74. On a move over that high we will look at positions with stock or calls to buy. Target: $40-42.
BUY POINT: Over 36.74, on volume of 2.5 million or better. Stop loss: 36.24-36.49.
POSITION: Stock and/or August $30 calls to buy (ANF HF).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/anf.html
HI (Household Intl--$61.12; +1.67; optionable (HI): Credit Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hi.html
STATUS: HI opened at the 10 day MVA (59.40) and headed up on strong volume, making a breakout move from its recent trading range above the 50 day MVA (58.18). This is the move for which we were looking, and anticipate the momentum to break HI over the March high of 62. The stock broke resistance at 60-61. Target on that move: $68-71. Using stop losses or trailing stops (on a continued move) can preserve gains.
BUY POINT: New high: Over 62 on continued rising volume. Stop loss: 61.50-61.75.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $55 calls to buy (HI GK).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/hi.html
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: BRCM, CHKP, CSCO, EMLX, IDTI, INTC, JDSU, MVSN, NT, PWER, SUNW, VTSS
No reports on stocks in this portfolio tonight.
PUT PLAYS: Many of the put plays (VRTS, VRSN, CHKP, SEBL) look ready for closing out; if the market tests the resistance broken on a pullback or some selling tomorrow morning, could be a chance to get in a close such positions in case the rally continues. On downside plays, as always, keep reasonable loss cutting rules in place, be ready to close positions quickly if necessary, and make sure you see the downside move, along with the market going down as well, and then enter.
New:
BGEN (Biogen--$59.25; -0.87; optionable (BGQ): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bgen.html
STATUS: Has moved up the last 2 days on decreasing volume; got a shot of higher, average volume Tuesday (3.47 million), but the stock was unable to hold the opening price of 60.76, above the 10 day MVA (60.28). BGEN hit a low of 58 and moved up to the closing price, but if it breaks back below that level on stronger selling, we will look at put positions for a move down to the 50 range. The stock stab at the 10 day again, for possible entry points on a failed test and move back down on selling.
BUY POINT: Below 57 on strong, above average selling volume, or from the 10 day MVA (60) in market selling.
POSITION: May $70 or $65 puts to buy (BGQ QN or QM). May $70 puts have 48 open interests but a better delta (.724).
Continued Puts:
IVGN (Invitrogen--$53.89; -2.71; optionable (IUV): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ivgn.html
STATUS: Still looks weak, dropping back below the 10 day MVA (54.37) on a volume surge (3.3 million; avg. 903,000). If the stock cannot break back over the moving average, we will look a buying puts on a move down. If IVGN breaks through the resistance for a move up to the 18 day MVA (56.36), we can look at playing the stock back down on continued strong volume.
BUY POINT: On a move back down from here or the 18 day MVA (56 range), on continued strong volume.
POSITION: May $70 puts to buy (IUV QN).
HGSI (Human Genome--$49.04; +3.48; optionable (HHA): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hgsi.html
STATUS: Ran up to the 50 day MVA (49.35) on stronger volume (3.4 million; avg. 3.5 million), but the stock failed to break that resistance on its last strong-volume run up to it; we are looking for the same action here, for a move back down to the 40 range.
BUY POINT: On a move back down from here on selling.
POSITION: May $60 puts to buy (HHA QL; 41 open interests).
Good Investing!
Jon Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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yahoo stock
trend trading stock
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