stock split, stock recommendation

Begin part 2 of 2

SUBSCRIBER QUESTIONS

Q: Could you please tell me if you take into consideration price gaps in your technical analysis and if you are of the opinion that gaps always have to fill on a certain period of time.

A: There is an old adage that all gaps have to be filled. In many cases they are filled shortly after the gap is made, e.g., after a gap to the upside and the initial surge there can be a test back to fill the gap and test the breakout (and to the downside as well). It does not always occur, at least not a full and complete fill of the gap. When a stock makes a big breakout and it is mostly gap, I always get a bit uneasy about jumping right in, particularly when the stock gaps higher and basically goes nowhere further during that session. If a stock gaps up just a bit over the prior close and then continues to run, I am not nearly as worried about the gap being completely filled. In that light it is more a question of the size of the gap and the action intraday following the gap as opposed to all gaps being treated the same way.

We took a look at gaps in the indexes over several decades a year or so ago in response to a claim that 'all gaps are filled.' There were some gaps filled over the past three years as the Nasdaq, for example, has traded down to 1996 levels. It took quite awhile for those gaps to be filled however. If you waited for the fill, you would have missed a run of about 3000 points or so. The gaps were filled, but it took a might long time. There was a gap off the October low in Nasdaq. There were several gaps on the further move up from there. Recently there was a gap off of the March low. Do they have to be filled? Some are not filled, some are not filled for years. So, do you avoid a play or run because of a gap? We don't unless we don't like how the gap looks as described above. Good question.

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This is Jon Johnson's own site devoted exclusively to seminars designed to teach you what you need to know about the stock market and stock movement and how to take advantage of those moves without incurring the usual high costs of travel and related expenses usually associated with seminars.

THE PLAYS

Good moves: APOL; BRL; DCLK; ERES;; JCOM

In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers.

NEW PLAYS:

Upside:

Play Date: 03/26/2003
ADTN (Adtran--$37.26; +0.26; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adtn.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. ADTN is forming the handle to a 2.5 month base showing 3 to 2 accumulation. A nice base that was formed after the strong move off the October low. Like to see a stock for a base while the market sells and then move back up for a breakout. Prefer options on this move but stock will work just fine.
Volume: 512.209K Avg Volume: 827.363K
BUY POINT: $38.24 Volume=1.2M Target=$43.96 Stop=$35.56
POSITION: RQA HH - Aug. $40c (42 delta) or RQA HG - Aug. $35c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/adtn.html

CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS

Upside:

Play Date: 03/25/2003
ADSK (Autodesk--$15.51; -0.12; optionable): Technical/system software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adsk.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Another good day of consolidation by ADSK on below average volume as it continues to work the handle of its 15-week base showing solid 5 to 2 accumulation. Still solid and waiting for the breakout.
Volume: 1.012M Avg Volume: 1.207M
BUY POINT: $15.96 Volume=1.8M Target=$19.45 Stop=$14.84
POSITION: ADQ GC - July $15c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/adsk.html

Play Date: 03/20/2003
GTRC (Guitar Center--$21.55; +0.5; optionable): Guitars, amps, supplies
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gtrc.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Making the breakout on strong volume but pulling back well off the intraday high (21.89) on the close. We thought about entering in the last half hour and may regret not getting in as GTRC moved up in a down market; a good market and it might blast higher. May get a test toward 21 early Wednesday, and if it does and starts up sharply we will start entering. Accumulation is positive at 6 up weeks on rising volume to 5 down weeks on rising volume, and money flow is solid.
Volume: 720.832K Avg Volume: 310.136K
BUY POINT: New: Test toward 21, then sharp move back up (orig. $21.25) Volume=455K Target=$25.24 Stop=$19.76
POSITION: UGR HD - Aug. $20c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gtrc.html

Play Date: 03/25/2003
MWD (Morgan Stanley--$40.51; -0.12; optionable): Investment services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mwd.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still moving in a tight, lateral pattern on lower, below average volume. Solid accumulation (5 to 3) and money flow is racing up ahead of the price. Financial stocks looking good.
Volume: 4.195M Avg Volume: 4.888M
BUY POINT: $40.85 Volume=7M Target=$46.75 Stop=$37.99
POSITION: MWD GH - July $40c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mwd.html

Play Date: 03/20/2003
MXIM (Maxim Integrated--$38.78; +0.03; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mxim.html
STATUS: New buy point. Cup w/handle. Still working on that lateral consolidation/handle, showing a doji right on top of the 10 day MVA (38.38) as volume continued to decline on the lateral move. Accumulation is solid at 4 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume. Money flow continues to run higher as the price moves laterally. Really like the looks of this one if the market can get a trigger.
Volume: 6.862M Avg Volume: 7.934M
BUY POINT: New: $40.75 (orig. $40.12) Volume=10M Target=$44.95 Stop=$37.31
POSITION: XIQ EG - May $35c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mxim.html

WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING

Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop

ACTL 03/19 Test BO 17.8 -0.57 18.78 22.55 179K 359K 17.47
Buy Not Hit.

ADI 03/20 Cup hdl 29.69 -0.16 31.06 35.65 2.2M 4.5M 28.89
Buy Not Hit.

ADI 03/15 BO 29.69 -0.16 30.35 34 2.2M 4.5M 28.42
Current.

ADSK 03/25 Cup hdl 15.51 -0.12 15.96 19.45 1M 1.8M 14.84
Buy Not Hit.

ADTN 03/26 Cup hdl 37.26 +0.26 38.24 43.96 512K 1.2M 35.56
New.

ADVP 03/04 Cup hdl 29.92 +0.15 28.55 32.84 1M 1.8M 27.25
Current.

AMZN 01/09 Test 50 27.76 +0.86 23.15 29.95 7.4M 13M 24.65
Current.

AMZN 10/21 Cup hdl 27.76 +0.86 20.32 28.24 7.4M 10M 24.65
Current.

APOL 02/18 A Wedge 50.97 +1.04 46.25 52.88 2.4M 22M 47.65
Current.

ARRO 02/15 Test 50 42.1 -1.09 42.25 48.42 16K 55K 39.29
Buy Not Issued.

BCGI 02/22 Cup 16.15 +0.45 13.95 16.65 362K 215K 14.35
Current.

BLL 03/03 A Wedge 55.71 -0.44 54.22 62 400K 550K 52.38
Current.

BRL 01/27 Test 18 57.42 +1.5 51.88 58.78 1.2M 875K 52

BSX 03/13 Cup 43.25 -2.7 44.55 50.55 7.9M 3.4M 41.65
Buy Not Issued.

CECO 02/15 Cup hdl 50.97 +0.24 48.07 54 636K 1.4M 45.74
Buy Not Issued.

CGNX 02/04 DB hdl 22.3 -0.89 24 27.88 649K 525K 22.24
Current.

CMVT 03/20 Cup hdl 11.9 +0.22 12.11 14.55 1.6M 3.5M 11.26
Buy Not Issued.

COH 02/25 Flat 38.5 -1.2 35.5 41.25 1.2M 1.3M 37.15
Current.

DCLK 03/20 A Wedge 8.3 +0.33 7.65 9.25 2.2M 1M 7.11
Current.

DNEX 02/27 BO 33.26 -0.18 33.55 38.58 97K 150K 31.94
Buy Not Issued.

DSCM 03/19 Test BO 3.8 +0.03 3.85 4.72 181K 383K 3.58
Current.

EBAY 03/08 BO 90.15 +1.45 80.08 92 9.7M 8M 84.94
Current.

ELAB 03/06 Cup hdl 26.47 +0.81 24.06 28.88 180K 325K 24.94
Current.

ERES 01/30 Cup hdl 26.69 +0.93 21.55 27.5 290K 436K 24.05
Current.

EXPD 02/24 Cup 37.18 -0.19 34.25 39.49 1.1M 1.1M 35.72
Current.

FCN 02/20 A Wedge 45.2 -0.07 43.6 49.35 237K 400K 43.25
Current.

FDX 03/24 Cup hdl 56.2 +0.32 57.55 66 1.4M 2.2M 53.52
Buy Not Hit.

GENZ 03/22 Cup hdl 36 +0.16 36.95 43.25 2.7M 5M 34.36
Buy Not Hit.

GSOF 03/04 Cup hdl 18 -0.24 17.85 21.42 672K 164K 16.38
Current.

GTK 03/26 Test BO 32.01 -0.99 32.55 36.55 619K 673K 30.27
New.

GTRC 03/20 A Wedge 21.55 +0.5 21.25 25.24 721K 455K 19.76
Buy Not Issued.

HITK 03/22 Cup hdl 21.47 +3.27 19.35 23.25 643K 235K 17.94

ICST 03/05 DB hdl 21.99 -0.66 23.65 27 2.4M 2M 21.99
Current.

IGT 03/13 Flat 83.47 -0.01 80.06 88 1.2M 1.2M 81.75
Current.

IMCL 03/01 Test BO 16.41 -0.39 14.6 16.72 1.6M 2M 14.94
Current.

IMDC 03/11 Test BO 34.5 +0.86 34.06 39.75 517K 249K 31.68
Buy Not Issued.

IOM 03/25 Cup hdl 11.27 -0.28 12.02 14.45 82K 260K 11.18
Buy Not Hit.

JCOM 03/18 Cup 30.2 +2.4 25.7 30.38 1.2M 412K 25.58
Current.

JEC 03/05 Cup hdl 40.85 -0.1 39.6 45.55 279K 374K 39.12
Current.

LLTC 03/20 Cup hdl 33.1 -0.4 34.97 40.48 7.6M 7M 32.15
Buy Not Issued.

LLTC 03/01 BO 33.1 -0.4 32.3 37.26 7.6M 7M 31.94
Current.

MVL 03/03 BO 13.53 +0.19 11.82 14.25 443K 675K 12.15
Current.

MWD 03/25 Test BO 40.51 -0.12 40.85 46.75 4.2M 7M 37.99
Buy Not Issued.

MXIM 03/20 Cup hdl 38.78 +0.03 40.12 44.95 6.9M 10M 37.31
Current.

NSM 03/20 Cup hdl 18.26 -0.04 19.32 23 1.9M 3M 17.94
Buy Not Hit.

NSM 03/15 Test BO 18.26 -0.04 18.55 21.65 1.9M 3M 17.04
Current.

ODSY 03/22 DB hdl 24.55 -0.76 25.06 28.88 199K 511K 23.31
Buy Not Issued.

PRX 03/12 Test 18 42.01 -0.53 37.05 42.94 580K 700K 38.25

PSUN 03/15 Cup 20.28 -0.06 20.4 24.25 658K 1.6M 18.97
Current.

QCOM 03/19 Test BO 38.43 -0.33 39.72 45.25 9.2M 20M 37.05
Buy Not Hit.

QCOM 12/04 Test 18 38.43 -0.33 40.85 50 9.2M 18M 37
Current.

QCOM 11/07 Test BO 38.43 -0.33 34.78 42 9.2M 18M 37
Current.

QLGC 03/15 Test BO 39.37 +0.66 38.85 45 5.8M 11M 36.13
Current.

QLGC 11/07 Test BO 39.37 +0.66 41.4 50 5.8M 25M 39.88

QQQ 03/15 Test 50 26.56 +0.15 25.26 28 68M 90M 25.65
Current.

RNBO 02/27 DB hdl 9.8 +0.01 8.45 10.25 267K 161K 8.94
Current.

SBUX 03/13 Cup hdl 26.28 +0.28 24.75 29.35 4.4M 5M 24.55
Current.

SOHU 03/20 Dbl btm 12.13 +2.42 10.55 12.75 2.8M 800K 9.81
Current.

SRCL 03/08 A Wedge 38.56 +0.81 36.55 41 779K 629K 37
Buy Not Hit.

STN 01/04 Rv H&S 20.62 -0.46 19.05 22.86 567K 600K 19.94
Current.

SYK 03/19 Test 50 67.91 -1.54 69 76.45 667K 800K 66.85
Current.

SYK 03/11 Test 50 67.91 -1.54 65.55 73.75 667K 800K 66.85
Current.

TTC 02/25 Test BO 70.8 -0.53 68.85 76.55 148K 137K 68.74
Current.

UCBH 03/24 Cup 43.76 -0.39 44.06 49.55 104K 200K 42.15
Buy Not Issued.

UOPX 03/04 Cup hdl 43.55 +1.55 40.75 46.62 368K 300K 39.94
Current.

UTHR 03/22 Cup hdl 16.98 -0.22 17.35 20.85 88K 210K 16.14
Buy Not Issued.

VAR 12/18 Rv H&S 54.12 -0.48 50.25 58 931K 700K 50.05
Current.

WFR 02/22 Flat 11 -0.2 9.35 12.75 125K 217K 9.96
Current.

XLNX 03/20 Test BO 25.47 -0.24 27.55 33.15 7.8M 14M 25.62
Buy Not Issued.

XLNX 03/12 Test 50 25.47 -0.24 24.24 30 7.8M 12M 24.25
Current.

ZMH 02/06 DB hdl 48.22 -0.88 42.65 50.88 1.5M 1.6M 46.35
Current.

ZQK 03/11 Cup 31.18 +0.18 28.55 34 267K 320K 29.25

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

stock split
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