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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
New:
Play Date: 03/29/2003
CTXS (Citrix Systems--$13.56; +0.04; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctxs.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. After a strong move off of the bottom of the base in October, CTXS has spent the past 3-months working on this base. Accumulation is positive at 2 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume. CTXS has spent the last week moving laterally with the lows holding right at the 10 day MVA (13.34) as volume has dropped off to below average levels. That is the action you like to see in the handle. In this pattern we just wait for the volume breakout and then move in.
Volume: 2.235M Avg Volume: 3.506M
BUY POINT: $14.12 Volume=5.3M Target=$17.25 Stop=$13.13
POSITION: XSQ FV - June $12.50c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ctxs.html
Play Date: 03/29/2003
NATI (National Instruments--$36.14; +0.24; optionable): PC peripherals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nati.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. NATI is working in a 4-month base that has spent the last two weeks moving laterally and using the 18 day MVA (35.31) as its support level. Accumulation is excellent at 7 up weeks on rising volume to just two down weeks on rising volume. After moving laterally on lower volume in the handle, volume edged higher Thursday and was above average Friday. The rising volume and relatively flat stock price signals to us that there is some pressure building for a breakout. Money flow is strong and moving up ahead of the stock price.
Volume: 331.32K Avg Volume: 242.235K
BUY POINT: $37.45 Volume=363K Target=$43.45 Stop=$34.83
POSITION: SJQ FG - June $35c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nati.html
Play Date: 03/29/2003
PNRA (Panera Bread--$31.5; +0.13; optionable): Special eateries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pnra.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. PNRA formed a base from May to December 2002, but could not make the breakout stick. It tanked and formed the current base and is now forming a lateral consolidation or handle after breaking over the 200 day MVA (31.00). Volume has backed off on the lateral move last week. Good accumulation at 5 up weeks on rising volume to 3 down weeks on rising volume. PNRA can run like the wind when it gets started, and we are looking for it to run to the prior highs as our initial target once it starts the move.
Volume: 353.434K Avg Volume: 859.955K
BUY POINT: $32.35 Volume=1.2M Target=$37.84 Stop=$30.09
POSITION: UPQ HF - Aug. $30c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pnra.html
Continuing plays that look ready:
Play Date: 03/29/2003
QQQ (QQQ Options--$26.08; -0.29; optionable): Nasdaq 100 Trust
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qqq.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. The QQQ continued its low volume test lower, tapping the 18 day MVA on the Friday low (25.95) as volume dropped even further below average as it does. Some very smart investors are buying the QQQ in here on this pullback even as some of the brokerage houses are saying sell into any war rally. We can look at more option positions (stepped out to June; can go further out if you want for longer term positions) as well as picking up actual QQQ shares to hold longer term as well.
Volume: 45.416M Avg Volume: 70.578M
BUY POINT: $26.55 Volume=90M Target=$28.15 Stop=$25.65
POSITION: QAV FY - June $25c (67 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/qqq.html
Play Date: 02/22/2003
WFR (Memc Electronic--$11.48; +0.47; no options): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfr.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After the nice move we rode to this level, WFR looks to have completed the lateral consolidation (flying plateau), and started breaking higher Friday on much stronger, above average volume. Excellent action in an overall down market. Looking for new positions as this break higher continues.
Volume: 209K Avg Volume: 151.622K
BUY POINT: $11.55 Volume=200K Target=$14.12 Stop=$10.44
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wfr.html
CONTINUING PLAY LIST:
Still many look good: FDX; IOM; MXIM; LLTC; JEC; MME; MWD; NTAP
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
$OEX 03/27 DB hdl 437.94 -3.07 442.55 469 0 0 437.55
New. Testing the 18 day MVA. Moved the buy point lower to
take advantage of a move higher from here.
ADI 03/20 Cup hdl 28.89 -0.51 31.06 35.65 2.3M 4.5M 28.89
Buy Not Hit.
ADI 03/15 BO 28.89 -0.51 30.35 34 2.3M 4.5M 28.42
Current. Another doji on the 18 day MVA on the third session
of very low, below average volume.
AGIX 03/06 Test BO 9.45 -0.4 8.81 10.55 276K 270K 8.85
Current. Really choppy the past three weeks between 9 and 10,
bouncing up and down in quite volatile action. Watchign
the stop point closely on this.
AMGN 01/22 A Wedge 58.56 -0.01 53.12 62 7.3M 20M 56.45
Current. Has built a small ascending triangle the past 2 weeks,
working up the 10 day MVA on the lows. It likes to
use these small triangles to consolidate for the next
move. Next buy is at 59.15.
AMZN 01/09 Test 50 27.18 -0.59 23.15 29.95 6.4M 13M 25.25
Current. Struggling to get through 28 the past week. Looks as
if it will test toward the 10 day MVA.
AMZN 10/21 Cup hdl 27.18 -0.59 20.32 28.24 6.4M 10M 25.25
Current.
APOL 02/18 A Wedge 50.01 -1.96 46.25 52.88 2.8M 22M 48.22
Current. Volatile as the March wind, APOL fell right back down
Friday to the 10 day MVA on continued strong above
average volume.
APPB 03/17 Cup hdl 27.89 +0.54 27.05 32.45 768K 1.1M 25.16
Buy Not Issued. Moving laterally the past week. Moved up the buy point
to clear newly formed resistance. Volume was up Friday
though still below average, so we are ready for a move
this week.
BLTI 02/10 Test BO 8.27 -0.02 7.2 9.15 244K 300K 7.65
Current. Gapped up Friday but gave the gain back as volume remained
below average. Still working in the uptrend.
BMRN 02/15 Test 18 11.92 -0.08 10.48 12.35 293K 700K 11.05
Current. Very tight lateral move below 12 on very low volume.
Could provide another strong breakout here. A move
over 12.25 on strong volume is a new buy point & we
would let current positions run.
BRL 01/27 Test 18 56.32 -1.48 51.88 58.78 938K 875K 52
Gapped lower Friday on some higher volume but still
held above the 10 day MVA.
BWS 03/24 Test BO 27.25 -1.1 28.55 34.25 203K 200K 26.55
Current. Tough day Friday, down to the 18 day MVA on rising,
above average volume. Tried the breakout a week back
but is faltering. Disappointing but if it continues
to sell we will close it out.
CELL 02/06 Test BO 16.3 -0.31 10.65 18.55 162K 260K 14.74
Current. Struggling to get over 17.75, but it was a strong move
higher on good volume and it needs some rest and this
is a decent consolidation.
CMCSA 03/04 Test BO 29.27 -0.3 28.65 32.94 6.7M 1.1M 28.15
Current. Working slowly up the 18 day MVA but volume is backing
off as it is having a hard time moving up after the
gap and dump a week back.
CMVT 03/20 Cup hdl 11.55 -0.2 12.11 14.55 879K 3.5M 11.26
Buy Not Issued. Still in a nice handle over the 10 day MVA on very
low volume. Nice.
CNCT 03/03 Test BO 16.11 -0.19 15 17.94 305K 210K 14.98
Current. Nice move Thursday on volume that took a breather Friday.
CTXS 03/29 Cup hdl 13.56 +0.04 14.12 17.25 2.2M 5.3M 13.13
New.
DCLK 03/20 A Wedge 8.35 +0.23 7.65 9.25 1.8M 1M 7.55
Current. Another nice move Friday on continued solid volume.
DISH 03/11 Test BO 29.48 -0.35 28.85 33.15 1.8M 4.8M 26.83
Buy Not Issued.
DKS 03/18 DB hdl 22.55 +0.25 23.81 28.42 81K 225K 21.94
Buy Not Hit.
DKS 02/19 DB hdl 22.55 +0.25 22.75 27.35 81K 225K 21.38
Current. Working in the lateral handle . . . still.
DNEX 02/27 BO 32.95 -0.24 33.55 38.58 66K 150K 31.94
Buy Not Issued.
DSCM 03/19 Test BO 3.99 +0.12 3.85 4.72 258K 383K 3.58
Current. Volume moving back up Friday as DSCM tries to cleanly
break over 4.
ELAB 03/06 Cup hdl 26.75 -0.22 24.06 28.88 347K 325K 25.25
Current. Excellent recovery off the gap to the 50 day MVA Monday,
ELAB is right back up to the prior high.
FDX 03/24 Cup hdl 56.5 -0.15 57.55 66 1.3M 2.2M 53.52
Buy Not Hit. Has formed a very nice lateral handle on lower volume.
FFIV 03/26 A Wedge 13.12 -2.02 14.55 17.45 2M 600K 13.53
Buy Not Issued. Tanked to the 50 day MVA on very strong volume. Maybe
next time.
FWHT 02/27 A Wedge 10.5 +0.23 8.85 10.65 136K 255K 9.38
Current. Still moving up the 10 day MVA as the market moved
laterally.
GSOF 03/04 Cup hdl 17.91 -0.19 17.85 21.42 309K 164K 16.38
Current. Has not been able to extend the strong Tuesday breakout
move, moving laterally on lower volume.
ICST 03/05 DB hdl 21.73 -0.36 23.65 27 1.8M 2M 21.99
Current. Struggling at the 50 day MVA still with some higher,
average volume Friday. Must bounce early this week.
Not taking a chance on this one on any further weakness.
IMDC 03/11 Test BO 35.55 +0.03 34.95 40.45 162K 249K 33.75
Current. Took a breather after a solid move Wednesday and Thursday.
IOM 03/25 Cup hdl 11.47 -0.27 12.02 14.45 73K 260K 11.18
Buy Not Hit. Still working laterally on low volume in the handle
of its nice cup with handle base.
IRM 02/24 DB hdl 38.5 +0.09 34.75 41.75 381K 389K 36.88
Current. Very nice lateral move over the 10 day MVA, testing
that level on the lows all last week (38).
JEC 03/05 Cup hdl 41.96 +1.01 39.6 45.55 380K 374K 40.05
Current. Lateral move last week that saw a nice Friday surge
on a strong shot of rising, above average volume.
L 03/27 DB hdl 9.79 -0.17 10.22 12.25 6.7M 9.4M 9.58
Buy Not Hit. Held the 10 day MVA on the close, rallying back to
that point on some rising, average volume.
LLTC 03/20 Cup hdl 32.45 -0.5 34.97 40.48 4.8M 7M 32.15
Buy Not Issued. Very nice, tight doji right at the 18 day MVA on low volume. After a pullack this can indicate a move back up is nearing.
LLTC 03/01 BO 32.45 -0.5 32.3 37.26 4.8M 7M 31.94
Current.
MATK 03/26 Cup hdl 27.58 -0.75 29.15 34.25 319K 425K 27.05
Buy Not Hit. Further test of the strong move, holding above the
10 day MVA on lower volume.
MBT 03/10 Test BO 41.26 -0.59 43.05 49 160K 255K 42.05
Exited.
MME 03/08 Cup 40.1 +0.9 38.8 43.75 416K 725K 37.94
Current. Starting a stronger move higher out of the handle on
stronger though still below average volume.
MSCC 03/27 BO 10.93 -0.52 11.12 14 747K 572K 10.34
Buy Not Issued.
MSN 03/15 Pennant 6.81 -0.06 7.28 9.05 54K 150K 6.74
MSN 12/04 Cup hdl 6.81 -0.06 4.85 7.65 54K 150K 6.48
Current.
MSN 11/23 Cup hdl 6.81 -0.06 4.15 7.65 54K 150K 6.48
Current. Still working laterally in the pennant on very, very
low volume.
MSTR 03/08 BO 23.06 -1.99 24.2 28.75 804K 400K 22.94
Current. Broke thru the 50 day MVA Friday on a surge in above
average volume. Managed to recover some off the lows
so we let it ride. If it cannot move thru 24 early
in week, option positions should be cleared out.
MWD 03/25 Test BO 40.02 -0.42 40.85 46.75 4.2M 7M 37.99
Buy Not Issued. Very nice action, drifting back on low volume to the
10 day MVA on low volume.
MXIM 03/20 Cup hdl 37.9 -0.49 40.12 44.95 4.9M 10M 37.31
Current. Another lower volume test of the 18 day MVA in the
very nice handle. Will run when it starts.
NATI 03/29 Cup hdl 36.14 +0.24 37.45 43.45 331K 363K 34.83
New.
NBTY 03/24 Cup 19.02 0 19.3 22.94 241K 790K 18.05
Current. Working laterally late in the week on lower, below
average volume. Very nice action.
NKE 03/27 Test 18 53.04 +0.83 53.35 60 1.1M 2.1M 50.75
Buy Not Issued. Up Friday but no volume. NKE is in a lateral consolidation
over the 10 day MVA. Moved up buy point over resistance.
NSCN 03/15 Put 17.06 -0.14 16.97 14 983K 2M 18.29
NTAP 03/19 Test 50 11.85 -0.13 12.03 14.25 3.4M 8.9M 10.94
Buy Not Issued. Money flow continues to rally higher as NTAP moves
laterally along the 10 day MVA on below average volume.
OCR 03/25 Cup 27.07 +0.7 26.34 30.25 496K 625K 24.75
Buy Not Issued. Never attracting breakaway volume, and that has kept
us from entering as these often result in a sharper
turn lower.
OVTI 02/24 Cup hdl 21.17 -2.05 19.05 24.55 4.2M 1.2M 19.74
Current. Sliced through the 18 day MVA on sharply rising volume.
Needs to recover here to keep remaining positions.
Some support @ 20.
PKI 03/04 Test BO 9.21 +0.17 9.16 10.98 754K 1M 8.52
Current. Still working in the uptrend above the 10 day MVA.
PNRA 03/29 Test BO 31.5 +0.13 32.35 37.84 353K 1.2M 30.09
New.
PRX 03/12 Test 18 42.8 +0.32 37.05 42.94 692K 700K 40
QCOM 03/19 Test BO 37.5 -0.1 39.72 45.25 9.3M 20M 37.05
Buy Not Hit. Tapped at the 50 day MVA on the low and recovered to
the 18 day, showing a nice doji at that level that
can lead to a rally back up from here.
QCOM 12/04 Test 18 37.5 -0.1 40.85 50 9.3M 18M 37
Current.
QCOM 11/07 Test BO 37.5 -0.1 34.78 42 9.3M 18M 37
Current.
QLGC 03/15 Test BO 38.22 -0.64 38.85 45 4.8M 11M 36.13
Current.
QLGC 11/07 Test BO 38.22 -0.64 41.4 50 4.8M 25M 39.88
QLGC 08/17 CCall 38.22 -0.64 36.48 0 4.8M 12M 37
Current. Down to the 18 day MVA on continued low volume, trying
to gather itself.
QQQ 03/29 Test 50 26.08 -0.29 26.55 28.15 45M 90M 25.65
New. Stepping out to June options for the next QQQ positions.
QQQ 03/15 Test 50 26.08 -0.29 25.26 28 45M 90M 25.65
Current. Nice doji at the 18 day MVA on very low volume. Ready
to add positions on the next volume move higher.
SCLN 03/27 BO 5.97 0 5.88 7.25 401K 205K 5.18
Current. Took a breather Friday after the strong Thursday breakout.
SCLN 02/26 Test BO 5.97 0 4.75 5.72 401K 115K 5.18
Current.
SRNA 03/22 Cup 16.11 -0.14 16.48 19.75 217K 700K 15.28
Buy Not Issued. Nice pullback to the 10 day MVA, showing a doji Friday
on low volume. Nice pullback.
SSYS 03/01 Cup hdl 13.1 +0.06 12.25 14.65 94K 110K 11.02
Current. Still a nice lateral move after the breakout.
STE 03/17 Cup hdl 26.05 -0.64 26.65 31 588K 594K 24.84
Buy Not Issued.
UNTD 03/15 Dbl btm 18.1 -0.54 17.28 20.25 1.5M 1.2M 16.82
Current. Testing back on lower volume Friday after a strong
drive higher last week.
UOPX 03/04 Cup hdl 43 -1.65 40.75 46.62 277K 300K 40.74
Current. Wild as the wind, UOPX was up sharply mid-week but
gave some of the move back Friday. Lower volume and
held above the 10 day MVA however.
UTHR 03/22 Cup hdl 17.24 +0.09 17.35 20.85 164K 210K 16.14
Buy Not Issued. Never gave a good move last week, and the handle is
edging higher. That is not the best action and would
prefer to see UTHR test back toward 16.75 before moving
back up.
VAR 12/18 Rv H&S 52.96 -0.57 50.25 58 888K 700K 51.54
Current.
VECO 03/13 BO 16.08 -0.1 16.5 20 308K 750K 16.06
Current. Big doji at the 18 day MVA on continued below average
volume. Needs to hold here.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 17.93 +0.29 19.76 20 8.7M 8.5M 17.45
Current.
VRTY 02/18 Cup hdl 14.81 -1.14 16.6 19.94 1.2M 500K 15.55
Exited.
WFR 03/29 FlyPlat 11.48 +0.47 11.55 14.12 209K 200K 10.44
New.
WFR 02/22 Flat 11.48 +0.47 9.35 12.75 209K 217K 10.15
Current. Started the next move up off the 10 day MVA Friday
on some very solid above average volume.
XLNX 03/20 Test BO 24.3 -1.12 27.55 33.15 12M 14M 25.62
Buy Not Issued.
XLNX 03/12 Test 50 24.3 -1.12 24.24 30 12M 12M 24.25
Current. Broke through the 18 day MVA on continued average volume.
Needs to hold at 24.
ZMH 02/06 DB hdl 49.46 +1.13 42.65 50.88 1.2M 1.6M 47
Current. Strong surge Friday off the 10 day MVA on rising, average
volume.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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