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stock split, stock research
Begin part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers.
NEW PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/08/2003
DRIV (Digital River--$17.15; +0.05; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/driv.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. DRIV broke out of a 4.5 month base in April, running up to 18.89 on the move. It is now on its second test of the 10 day MVA (16.64), showing a hammer doji right over that level after three sessions of pulling back from the strong breakout move. Volume has backed off to below average, the first time in three weeks. Positive accumulation in the base and excellent money flow set the stage for another strong move.
Volume: 841.942K Avg Volume: 931.537K
BUY POINT: $17.45 Volume=1.4M Target=$20.95 Stop=$16.23
POSITION: DQIIW - Sept. $17.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/driv.html
Play Date: 05/08/2003
NVDA (Nvidia--$16.06; +0.01; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvda.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. NVDA has been forming the handle this week to its 5 month cup base. The base shows solid 6 to 2 accumulation (6 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume). Thursday it showed a strong volume surge as it flexed its muscles a bit. After hours NVDA beat the street with earnings and had good things to say about the future. It was up sharply. We are going to let it gap higher and then come back to test toward our buy point. When it makes its test and starts back up we will be looking to get in. We are looking for a test back to 17.50 to 17.
Volume: 17.702M Avg Volume: 7.368M
BUY POINT: $17.55 Volume=11M Target=$21.25 Stop=$16.32
POSITION: UVA IW - Sept. $17.50c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nvda.html
New Pre-Splits
Play Date: 05/08/2003
CEDC (Central European District--$29.97; +0.6; no options): Wholesale materials. Splits 3:2 on 6-2-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cedc.html
STATUS: Cup. CEDC broke out of a 3-month cup base with news of earnings and the split Tuesday, and has since moved laterally on lower volume, catching its breath after a strong move higher. Accumulation is a solid 4 to 2 with excellent money flow moving up ahead of the stock. We were actually looking at this stock right before the announcement was made based on its good pattern and credentials. It may test back more toward the 10 day MVA (28.27), but we don't expect it to fall that far before continuing the move.
Volume: 156.434K Avg Volume: 123.766K
BUY POINT: $30.75 Volume=186K Target=$35.55 Stop=$28.65
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cedc.html
Play Date: 05/08/2003
FLIR (Flir Systems--$50.68; -0.47; optionable): Scientific and technical instruments. Splits 2:1 on 5-30-02
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flir.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After the strong surge last week, FLIR has tanked back to the 18 day MVA on the Thursday close. At that level it showed a hammer doji , an indication that a move back up may be ahead. This is the type of signal that we look for in pre-splits.
Volume: 454.86K Avg Volume: 267.134K
BUY POINT: $51.35 Volume=401K Target=$58.55 Stop=$47.76
POSITION: FFQ GJ - July $50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/flir.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Upside:
Play Date: 05/01/2003
DCTM (Documentum--$18.72; +0.13; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dctm.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. DCTM continues to test the breakout from its 5-month base, moving below the 10 day MVA (18.58) but then rallying to recover and close over that level. That keeps it right at the breakout point. Solid 7 to 4 accumulation in the base is supporting the move and solid money flow.
Volume: 591.415K Avg Volume: 1.237M
BUY POINT: $19.75 Volume=1.8M Target=$24 Stop=$18.32
POSITION: QDC GW - July $17.50c (77 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dctm.html
Play Date: 04/29/2003
FDRY (Foundry Networks--$11.66; -0.45; optionable): PC peripherals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fdry.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After a strong breakout from its 5-month base, FDRY is testing back on much lower and now below average volume. Money flow and relative strength led the way on the breakout, and we are looking for FDRY to test toward the 10 day MVA (11.28) to test the breakout and then start back up on rising volume.
Volume: 2.939M Avg Volume: 3.312M
BUY POINT: New: Test 11.30, then 11.45 (orig. $10.90) Volume=4.4M Target=$13.15 Stop=$10.35
POSITION: OUJ IB - Sept. $10c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fdry.html
Play Date: 04/23/2003
FFIV (F5 Networks--$14.63; -0.17; no options): Internet software and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/ffiv.html
STATUS: Ascending Triangle. FFIV ran up to the breakout point in its 5-month base with a strong Friday and Monday move. It has since tested back to the 10 day MVA, tapping it on the Monday low (14.40). The move was on lower, below average volume, and it rebounded off the 10 day MVA to recover most of the session loss. Solid 7 to 3 accumulation in the base as FFIV looks as if it is making its last shakeout move before the breakout. A turn up form the 10 day MVA makes a higher low and sets the stage for the move higher.
Volume: 282.739K Avg Volume: 508.142K
BUY POINT: $15.25 Volume=750K Target=$18.32 Stop=$13.94
POSITION: FLK GC - July $15c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ffiv.html
Play Date: 05/03/2003
GENZ (Genzyme--$39.13; -0.43; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/genz.html
STATUS: Breakout test. GENZ continues to test the breakout, tapping toward the 18 day MVA on the low (38.72). We are looking for it to hold this level and start back up on stronger volume. Great accumulation at 6 to 2 accumulation (6 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume, showing net accumulation in the stock).
Volume: 3.808M Avg Volume: 3.306M
BUY POINT: $40.25 (orig. $41.75) Volume=4.9M Target=$49.88 Stop=$38.83
POSITION: GZQ GH - July $40c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/genz.html
Play Date: 04/24/2003
IART (Integra Lifesciences--$26.76; +0.6; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iart.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. After the big break higher in late April to clear the last flat consolidation, IART has formed a new flat consolidation just over the 10 day MVA (26). Volume has been lower on the lateral move, and with the 10 day MVA rising up to meet it, we are looking for another nice break higher. Solid money flow and a relative strength breakout.
Volume: 278.658K Avg Volume: 399.109K
BUY POINT: New: $26.94 (orig. $24.62) Volume=485K Target=$27.55 Stop=$24.65
POSITION: UJI IX - Sept. $22.50c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/iart.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We are putting those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves on the report. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
All current pre-announcements:
AVP
BBBY
BRL
CECO
EBAY
GDW
MME
RARE
WFMI
Continued Pre-Announcements:
Play Date: 04/26/2003
BBBY (Bed, Bath & Beyond--$39.61; -0.37; optionable): Home furnishings. We are currently looking for a split announcement in early May or early July; we are awaiting for additional information to pinpoint a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bbby.html
BACKGROUND: BBBY last announced a 2:1 split in July 2000 at a price of $36.
STATUS: Testing the breakout. BBBY continues to move up the 10 day MVA, alternating up and down days as it does. After a strong move Tuesday, BBBY has now tested back to the 10 day MVA, closing right on top of that level on lower volume and showing a hammer doji. Looks ready once again to move higher. Strong money flow to top its good accumulation in the pattern.
Volume: 2.337M Avg Volume: 3.506M
BUY POINT: New: 40.25 (orig. $39.12) Volume=4M Target=$46 Stop=$38.25
POSITION: BHQ HU - Aug. $37.50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bbby.html
Play Date: 02/15/2003
CECO (Career Education--$60.09; -0.31; optionable): Education and training. No split announcement with earnings on 4-22. Researching another possible date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 4-31-01 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $61. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-11-02 at which time authorized shares were increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceco.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. After another great breakout and run higher from late April, CECO peaked at 62 and is now pulling back to test the move on light, below average volume. That is the solid price/volume action you want to see, and this marks the first 10 day MVA test since the breakout. Thursday CECO showed a very tight doji over the 10 day (59.22). Looking for a rising volume bounce for a successful test.
Volume: 543.149K Avg Volume: 837.745K
BUY POINT: New: 60.55 (orig. 52; 48.25)
Volume=1.4M Target=$58.55 (65; letting it run as orig. was 58.55) Stop=$58.42
POSITION: CUY GL - July $60c (62 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ceco.html
Play Date: 03/08/2003
EBAY (Ebay--$93.27; -1.01; optionable): Internet auctions, sales. No split announced April 22 with earnings, but the move was great. EBAY is going to announce so we are looking for the next possible date.
BACKGROUND: EBAY announced a 3:1 stock split 1-26-99 and then a 2:1 stock split in April 2000 at a stock price of $140.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ebay.html
STATUS: New high breakout. EBAY is testing the 10 day MVA, holding that level Thursday as it pulled back on lower, below average volume. We need to see a stronger volume move higher from here for new positions.
Volume: 4.26M Avg Volume: 6.387M
BUY POINT: New: Aggressive: $94.25; Breakout: 95.65 (orig. 87.25; $80.08) Volume=8M Target=$92 Stop=$91.22
POSITION: QXB GR - July $90c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ebay.html
Play Date: 05/01/2003
GDW (Golden West Financial--$76.54; -0.42; optionable): Savings & Loan. Forecast to announce a split on 7-16-03 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 1 split on 11-2-99 at a stock price of $114.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gdw.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. GDW started to make the breakout Wednesday on some solid volume, but backed off some Thursday in the overall market weakness that was particularly notable in the financials. Given that it looked quite good Thursday. Waiting for a stronger volume break higher that holds for new positions. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation.
Volume: 621.1K Avg Volume: 598.768K
BUY POINT: New: 77.25 (orig. $76.75) Volume=900K Target=$86.75 Stop=$73.65
POSITION: GDW HO - Aug. $75c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gdw.html
Play Date: 04/30/2003
MME (Mid-Atlantic Medical--$45.25; +1.05; optionable): Health care plans. Forecast to announce a split on 5-8-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that MME has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-28-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 3 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mme.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Thursday MME showed the best volume of the move, breaking some resistance at 44.80 as it surged. It high 46.20 on the high and fell back, but the volume breakout was solid. Still a buy at this point.
Volume: 1.498M Avg Volume: 458.077K
BUY POINT: New: $45.45 (orig. $43.85) Volume=634K Target=$51.85 Stop=$40.78
POSITION: MME II - Sept. $45c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mme.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/30/2003
ERES (Eresearch Tech--$30.33; -0.22; optionable): Medical labs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eres.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. After a strong blast higher last Friday, ERES tanked back but managed to hold the 18 day MVA (29.65) on a closing basis. Thursday the stock showed a doji at the 10 day on lower, below average volume. Looks ready to try another move higher.
Volume: 332.037K Avg Volume: 409.673K
BUY POINT: $30.95 Volume=496K Target=$35.15 Stop=$31.28
POSITION: UDB IY - Sept. $27.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/eres.htm
Play Date: 05/01/2003
ZQK (Quicksilver--$33.39; -0.23; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zqk.html
STATUS:
Volume: 194.8K Avg Volume: 359.223K
BUY POINT: $33.75 Volume=350K Target=$37.85 Stop=$31.95
POSITION: ZQK FF - June $30c (70 delta) or ZQK HF - Aug. $30c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/zqk.html
POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/24/2003
TSCO (Tractor Supply--$43.61; -0.28; optionable): Urban and suburban ranchers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tsco.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still testing the strong break higher, showing a nice doji with tail that reached down below the 10 day MVA (43.18) and then rebounded to hold over that level. This indicates it is ready to head back up, but we need to see the move on rising volume before we enter.
Volume: 291.404K Avg Volume: 407.867K
BUY POINT: New: $44.55 (orig. $43.75) Volume=603K Target=$52 Stop=$40.69
POSITION: QTF GH - July $40c (60 delta) or QTF JI - Oct. $45c (44 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tsco.html
End part 2 of 3
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stock split
stock research
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