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stock recommendation, stock market recommendation
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Thursday Plays:
ASCL: Tested the 18 day MVA and bounced back on rising volume.
VIVO: Gapped higher but sold back all session.
DKS: Another nice test, down to the 10 day MVA with a tight doji.
BRCM: Nice hammer doji right on the 10 day MVA.
Best Plays:
1) DRIV: Nice breakout test.
2) FFIV: Looks good over the 10 day MVA.
3) Continuing: DKS still looks good. EBAY is making a nice test. IART is showing a nice lateral move. TSCO still looks good. CTL is forming a nice lateral handle.
New Plays:
Play Date: 05/08/2003
DRIV (Digital River--$17.15; +0.05; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/driv.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. DRIV broke out of a 4.5 month base in April, running up to 18.89 on the move. It is now on its second test of the 10 day MVA (16.64), showing a hammer doji right over that level after three sessions of pulling back from the strong breakout move. Volume has backed off to below average, the first time in three weeks. Positive accumulation in the base and excellent money flow set the stage for another strong move.
Volume: 841.942K Avg Volume: 931.537K
BUY POINT: $17.45 Volume=1.4M Target=$20.95 Stop=$16.23
POSITION: DQIIW - Sept. $17.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/driv.html
Play Date: 05/08/2003
NVDA (Nvidia--$16.06; +0.01; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvda.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. NVDA has been forming the handle this week to its 5 month cup base. The base shows solid 6 to 2 accumulation (6 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume). Thursday it showed a strong volume surge as it flexed its muscles a bit. After hours NVDA beat the street with earnings and had good things to say about the future. It was up sharply. We are going to let it gap higher and then come back to test toward our buy point. When it makes its test and starts back up we will be looking to get in. We are looking for a test back to 17.50 to 17.
Volume: 17.702M Avg Volume: 7.368M
BUY POINT: $17.55 Volume=11M Target=$21.25 Stop=$16.32
POSITION: UVA IW - Sept. $17.50c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/nvda.html
Continuing:
Play Date: 04/23/2003
FFIV (F5 Networks--$14.63; -0.17; no options): Internet software and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/ffiv.html
STATUS: Ascending Triangle. FFIV ran up to the breakout point in its 5-month base with a strong Friday and Monday move. It has since tested back to the 10 day MVA, tapping it on the Monday low (14.40). The move was on lower, below average volume, and it rebounded off the 10 day MVA to recover most of the session loss. Solid 7 to 3 accumulation in the base as FFIV looks as if it is making its last shakeout move before the breakout. A turn up form the 10 day MVA makes a higher low and sets the stage for the move higher.
Volume: 282.739K Avg Volume: 508.142K
BUY POINT: $15.25 Volume=750K Target=$18.32 Stop=$13.94
POSITION: FLK GC - July $15c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ffiv.html
Play Date: 04/24/2003
IART (Integra Lifesciences--$26.76; +0.6; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iart.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. After the big break higher in late April to clear the last flat consolidation, IART has formed a new flat consolidation just over the 10 day MVA (26). Volume has been lower on the lateral move, and with the 10 day MVA rising up to meet it, we are looking for another nice break higher. Solid money flow and a relative strength breakout.
Volume: 278.658K Avg Volume: 399.109K
BUY POINT: New: $26.94 (orig. $24.62) Volume=485K Target=$27.55 Stop=$24.65
POSITION: UJI IX - Sept. $22.50c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/iart.html
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: AMZN, BRCM, IBM, IGEN, KLAC, MSFT, RCII, TEVA, WMT YHOO
These are the stocks that our subscribers vote to put in a 'portfolio' to track their progress and comment upon when they reach buy points, sell points, or levels to write some covered calls on. They are not intended to be held as a portfolio by subscribers and are not covered in their entirety in every report. When something interesting is developing we take note.
CONTINUING/WATCHLIST:
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ALTR 04/15 Rv H&S 16.58 -0.21 15.75 18.81 9M 12M 15.52
Current. Testing the 10 day MVA with a very nice, tight hammer doji.
AMZN 05/03 BO 30.45 -0.25 30.3 35.45 8.5M 12M 28.18
Current. Nice lower volume pullback, but being very stingy with gains.
ASCL 05/07 FlyPlat 3.83 -0.09 4.05 4.96 2.9M 1.7M 3.77
Buy Not Hit.
BCE 04/05 Cup 20.16 -0.11 19.9 23.75 162K 550K 19.45
Current. Testing back on much lower, below average volume.
BCGI 04/24 Test BO 17.85 -0.46 18.55 22.26 407K 431K 17.55
Current. Trying to hold the 18 day MVA. Needs to bounce here.
BLL 03/03 A Wedge 55.2 -1.01 54.22 62 351K 550K 55.74
Current. Down to the 50 day MVA where it held; will see if it can give a bounce as it did last time.
BLTI 02/10 Test BO 10.84 -1.16 7.2 9.5 1.6M 300K 11.25
Current. Big doji right at the 18 day MVA. As it held the 18 day we are seeing if it can bounce from here.
BRCM 05/03 Cup hdl 18.06 -0.28 19.15 22.94 11M 15M 17.81
Buy Not Issued.
BWS 03/24 Test BO 27.1 -4.29 28.55 34.25 1.2M 200K 29.06
Exited. Potential environmental liability sent it down.
C 04/18 Rv H&S 39.21 -0.81 40.54 47.55 15M 23M 38.45
Buy Not Issued. One of the financials that held up well.
CHIR 05/03 Cup hdl 40.1 -1.77 42.9 51 2.4M 2M 40.25
Current. Big drop on volume. Ready to exit if no bounce from this support at 40.
CLE 04/14 Cup hdl 26.49 +0.55 26.05 30 752K 567K 24.78
Buy Not Issued.
CNQR 04/22 Test 18 6.03 -0.03 6.12 7.42 140K 250K 5.65
Buy Not Issued. Tightening up here at the breakout point.
CTL 05/01 Cup hdl 31.4 +0.15 30.65 36 584K 1.3M 30
Buy Not Issued. Forming a nice lateral handle on lower, below average volume. Very nice.
CTXS 03/29 Cup hdl 19.28 -0.57 14.12 17.25 4.8M 5.3M 17.85
Current. Testing the 10 day MVA on some slightly higher volume.
DCLK 04/26 Test BO 8.75 -0.13 9.04 11.35 464K 1.9M 8.41
Current. Nice lower volume test of the 10 day MVA. Nice.
DKS 03/18 DB hdl 29.3 -0.39 23.81 28.42 145K 225K 28
Current. Nice test of the 10 day MVA.
DKS 02/19 DB hdl 29.3 -0.39 22.75 27.35 145K 225K 28
Current.
DRIV 05/08 Test BO 17.15 +0.05 17.45 20.95 842K 1.4M 16.23
New.
DSPG 04/26 Test BO 20.69 -0.36 21.1 25.1 216K 300K 20
Current. Testing the 10 day MVA on lower volume.
DSPG 04/09 Test BO 20.69 -0.36 19.35 23 216K 308K 20
Current.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 93.27 -1.01 69.45 92 4.3M 12M 91.22
Current. Nice doji on the 10 day MVA.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 93.27 -1.01 62.45 92 4.3M 12M 91.22
Current.
EFII 03/27 Cup hdl 19.77 -0.09 18.43 22.25 115K 498K 18.65
Current. Nice doji on the 10 day MVA.
EXEL 05/05 Cup 7.75 -0.58 9.32 11.25 252K 264K 8.54
Buy Not Issued. Turned below the 18 day MVA on average volume. After the higher volume turnover this is not good action.
FDRY 04/29 Cup hdl 11.66 -0.45 10.9 13.15 2.9M 4.4M 10.35
Current. Looks ready for more.
FEIC 05/06 Cup 17.42 -0.68 19.12 22.95 121K 325K 17.78
Buy Not Hit. Falling through the 18 day MVA. Dropping.
FFIV 04/23 A Wedge 14.63 -0.17 14.42 17.35 283K 750K 13.41
Looks ready.
FLML 04/21 Test BO 8.09 -0.49 8.88 10.75 317K 398K 8.62
Exited.
GRMN 11/06 Cup hdl 45.75 -0.3 22.34 37.45 214K 198K 42.45
Current.
HAS 04/12 Test BO 15.95 -0.05 14.88 17.88 1.2M 1.2M 15.35
Current. Tapped the 18 day MVA and rallied back.
HAS 03/31 Test BO 15.95 -0.05 14.65 17 1.2M 1.2M 15.35
Current.
IART 04/24 FlyPlat 26.76 +0.6 24.62 27.55 279K 485K 24.65
Looks ready.
IBM 01/11 A Wedge 86.05 -0.63 0 0 7.2M 14M 84
Holding the 10 day MVA as it works on another shakeout here. Very nice action.
IGEN 01/11 A Wedge 37.12 -0.61 0 0 190K 375K 36
IGLD 04/21 Cup 5.08 -0.32 4.3 5.38 369K 543K 4.12
Current. Tapped the 10 day MVA on the low and bounced some. Looking for this to hold.
ILXO 04/15 Cup hdl 13.77 -0.21 11.6 15.32 123K 293K 11.92
Current. Moving laterally on very low volume.
JNPR 04/15 Flat 11.9 -0.29 10.6 13.42 14M 17M 9.97
Current. Testing back on lower volume, being very stingy with its gains. Good action.
KLAC 04/02 Test 50 41.06 -0.98 39.4 45.48 9.1M 13M 39.88
Current. Tapping the 18 day MVA on below average volume. Needs to hold here.
KLAC 01/11 Test BO 41.06 -0.98 0 0 9.1M 0 0
MME 04/30 BO 45.25 +1.05 43.85 51.85 1.5M 634K 40.78
The only thing wrong was the close off the high, but
that was all.
MSFT 01/11 A Wedge 25.75 -0.24 0 0 47M 57M 0
MXIM 04/18 Rv H&S 39.05 -0.79 40.12 45 7.9M 1.2M 38.65
Current. Doji right below the 18 day MVA. Needs to rebound from here.
MYK 03/22 Cup hdl 9.05 +0.02 8.88 10.88 106K 180K 8.26
Current. Nice lateral consolidation on below average volume.
NTES 04/01 Cup 24.43 -0.25 17 20.45 787K 1M 21.45
Current. Nice test of the 10 day MVA on lower volume.
NVDA 05/08 Cup hdl 16.06 +0.01 17.55 21.25 18M 11M 16.32
New.
NXTL 02/25 Flat 13.28 -0.54 14.55 17.55 42M 2.5M 14.15
Current. The only reason we stayed in was because it was rallying toward the close.
OVRL 04/05 Flat 17.39 -0.26 16.75 20.25 54K 140K 16.92
Current. Still in that nice laterally move over the 18 day MVA.
OVTI 02/24 Cup hdl 27.05 -0.46 19.05 24.55 776K 1.2M 24.74
Current. Nice orderly test of the 10 day MVA on below average volume.
POSS 04/23 Cup 19.5 -0.29 20.18 24 104K 342K 18.38
Current. Held basically steady in the market selling.
QCOM 04/16 Put 30.39 -1.55 32.56 29 25M 16M 32.75
Diving lower.
QLGC 03/15 Test BO 45.47 -0.33 38.85 45 6.2M 11M 41
Current. Holding its gains well.
QLGC 11/07 Test BO 45.47 -0.33 41.4 50 6.2M 25M 41
QLGC 08/17 CCall 45.47 -0.33 36.48 0 6.2M 12M 41
Current.
RADA 05/05 BO 8 +0.01 7.92 9.51 84K 80K 7.37
Current. Held up well after the strong volume move Wednesday
RCII 01/11 Test BO 64.84 -0.72 0 0 261K 0 61
RGEN 04/07 Test 18 5.38 -0.17 4.84 7.1 346K 132K 5.47
Current. Falling through the 18 day MVA on some rising volume. Looking for a test, but if it cannot retake the 18 day early we will exit.
RL 04/10 Cup hdl 22.9 -0.26 23.26 27.94 160K 433K 21.63
Buy Not Issued.
SCSS 04/26 Cup hdl 13.19 -0.28 12.22 14.55 320K 696K 12.05
Current. Testing the 10 day MVA as volume edged up to average. Want to see it hold here.
SHRP 05/01 Cup hdl 20.12 -0.73 21.45 25.25 479K 293K 19.95
Buy Not Issued.
SIGM 05/06 Cup hdl 7.9 +0.33 7.58 9.55 340K 125K 7.05
Buy Not Issued. Nice move on volume.
Nice move on volume. Another victim of the server crash.
This was a buy today.
SINA 04/12 Cup hdl 11.98 -0.33 9.35 11.35 2.3M 2.5M 9.65
Current. Held up very well in the selling.
SOHU 03/20 Dbl btm 18.55 -0.21 10.55 13 956K 800K 14.85
Current. Nice session given the selling. Lateral move on low volume.
SPLS 03/31 Test 50 20.55 +0.2 20.3 23.55 4.1M 5M 19.24
Current. Nice move in a down market.
SSYS 03/01 Cup hdl 23.5 -1.24 12.25 15.45 229K 110K 21.88
Current. Holding the 10 day MVA on a pullback.
TEVA 01/11 A Wedge 47.04 +0.31 0 0 2.4M 5M 0
THOR 04/05 Test BO 12.81 -0.15 13.5 16.26 435K 721K 12.68
Current. A doji at the 18 day MVA. Needs to hold here.
TNOX 04/12 Test 18 14.42 -0.31 12.96 15.75 122K 271K 14.25
Current.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 43.61 -0.28 43.75 52 291K 603K 40.69
Current. Looks ready to move back up.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 43.61 -0.28 38.6 44.38 291K 577K 40.69
Current.
USAI 03/25 Cup hdl 32.78 -1.29 29.12 33.55 12M 8.3M 32.55
Current. Stronger volume selling, but still over the 10 day MVA.
UTHR 04/30 Cup hdl 17.6 -0.16 18.12 21.75 161K 226K 17.48
Current. Big reach down but recovered to hold the 18 day MVA.
VIVO 05/07 BO 9.29 +0.02 9.38 11.25 111K 45K 8.72
Buy Not Issued. Holding up well but started down after the gap up so we did not enter.
VRNT 05/05 Cup hdl 20.8 -1.7 22.92 27.55 231K 245K 21.32
Current. Managed to hold the 10 day MVA.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 23.95 -0.2 19.76 20 7.4M 8.5M 21.25
Current.
VSTA 04/28 Cup hdl 21.45 -1.55 19.98 23.85 422K 156K 19.35
Current. Fell hard but managed to hold the 10 day MVA. Needs to hold here.
VTAL 04/23 Cup hdl 15.3 -0.1 14.25 17.12 145K 150K 13.25
Current. Holding up well.
WFR 03/29 FlyPlat 12.9 +0.15 12.4 15.15 270K 200K 11.65
Current. Forming up well for the next move.
WFR 02/22 Flat 12.9 +0.15 9.35 12.75 270K 217K 11.44
Current.
WMT 02/05 Put 55.01 -0.07 0 0 9.2M 8.2M 0
XLNX 03/20 Test BO 27.7 -0.5 28.05 34.55 8.1M 14M 26.35
Current. Held up well over the 10 day MVA.
XMSR 04/07 Test BO 10.3 -0.69 6.95 8.42 16M 6.5M 8.45
Current. Holding the 10 day MVA though volume is strong.
YHOO 12/11 Test 50 25.08 +0.32 17.32 25 8.2M 20M 23.94
Current. Managed a gain on continued below average volume.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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