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Begin part 2 of 2
Economic Calendar
5-13-03
Trade Balance, May (8:30): -$41.0B expected, -$40.3B April.
5-14-03
Retail sales, April (8:30): 0.4% expected, 2.1% March
Retail ex Autos (8:30): 0.3% expected, 1.2% March.
5-15-03
New York PMI, May (8:00): -11.5 expected, -20.4 April
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 440K expected, 425K prior.
PPI, April (8:30): -0.5% expected, 1.5% March.
Core PPI (8:30): 0.0% exected, 0.7% prior.
Business inventories, March (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.6% February
Industrial production, April (9:15): -0.3% expected, -0.5% March
Capacity utilization, April (9:15): 74.6% expected, 74.8% March.
Philly Fed, May (12:00): -6.0 expected, -8.8 prior.
5-16-03
Housing starts, April (8:30): 1.750M expected, 1.780M March
Building permits, April (8:30): 1.700M expected, 1.692M March
CPI, April (8:30): -0.1% expected, 0.3% March
Core CPI (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.0% March
Michigan sentiment preliminary, May (9:45): 87.5 expected, 86.0 April.
SEMINARS ON CD
http://www.stockseminarsonline.com
This is Jon Johnson's own site devoted exclusively to seminars designed to teach you what you need to know about the stock market and stock movement and how to take advantage of those moves without incurring the usual high costs of travel and related expenses usually associated with seminars.
THE PLAYS
Good movers on Friday: CTL; DSPG; EBAY; FFIV; IGLD; OVTI; QLGC; SCSS; XLNX
Fridays Plays:
DRIV: Still a nice test of the breakout in progress.
NVDA: Gapped higher and never looked back.
FFIV: Started back up on volume from the 10 day MVA test.
IART: Gapped higher but could not hold it.
Best Plays:
1) MDCO: Starting a bounce off the 18 day MVA on rising volume.
2) TXN: Starting up on rising volume.
3) Continuing: BCE is in a nice test. BRCM is in a good handle. DRIV looks solid. FDRY is still in a good pullback. MSFT, THOR, USAI as well.
New Plays:
Play Date: 05/10/2003
MDCO (The Medicines Company--$21; +0.9; optionable): Drug manufacturers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mdco.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. A new issue back in 2000, MDCO is just about to work its way out of the long base it has formed since mid-2001. It made a breakout move in late April on some solid volume, and has spent the past 2 weeks testing the breakout, pulling back to the 18 day MVA (20) and thn jumping up from that level Friday on rising though still below average volume. Excellent 5 to 1 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume) since the start of this year as the stock moved basically laterally. Money flow is solid as is relative strength, and it looks as if MDCO is ready to complete the test.
Volume: 490.328K Avg Volume: 786.727K
BUY POINT: $21.25 Volume=825K Target=$25.48 Stop=$19.76
POSITION: MQL JD - Oct. $20c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/mdco.html
Play Date: 05/10/2003
TXN (Texas Instruments--$20; +1.13; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/txn.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. TXN is coming off of its long base, forming the current 5-month base as it does. Very nice 7 to 4 accumulation in the base with outstanding money flow leading the way higher. Volume has started to surge in the past week, coming in above average each session. TXN is right at the breakout point and looks excellent. Going to let it make the breakout and move in as it does.
Volume: 14.905M Avg Volume: 10.723M
BUY POINT: $20.45 Volume=16M Target=$24.55 Stop=$18.96
POSITION: TXN JD - Oct. $20c (41 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/txn.html
Continuing:
Play Date: 01/11/2003
IBM (International Business Machines--$87.55; +1.5; optionable): Computers and business solutions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ibm.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. IBM continues to quietly improve, moving laterally over its short term MVA (tapped the 10 day MVA on the Friday low at 86.40) as it completes the handle to its 4-month base. The stock is under outstanding accumulation during the base at 6 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume. It has been a quiet move forming this base with volume dropping off the past month. We have a feeling that the move up out of the pattern will not be so quiet.
Volume: 6.223M Avg Volume: 8.05M
BUY POINT: $87.75 Volume=14M Target=$100 Stop=$84.88
POSITION: IBM JR - Oct. $90c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ibm.html
Play Date: 03/29/2003
WFR (Memc Electronic--$13; +0.1; no options): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfr.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. After a strong breakout from its 3-month base in March, WFR has run up to 13 where it has now formed this pattern the past month, moving up the 18 day MVA on the lows. Friday it tested the 18 day MVA on the low and rallied back on stronger, above average volume. It is poised for the breakout, and we really like these ascending triangles after cup breakouts as they tend to precede larger gains in an uptrending market.
Volume: 277.1K Avg Volume: 227.772K
BUY POINT: $12.4 Volume=200K Target=$15.15 Stop=$12.22
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/wfr.html
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: AMZN, BRCM, IBM, IGEN, KLAC, MSFT, RCII, TEVA, WMT YHOO
These are the stocks that our subscribers vote to put in a 'portfolio' to track their progress and comment upon when they reach buy points, sell points, or levels to write some covered calls on. They are not intended to be held as a portfolio by subscribers and are not covered in their entirety in every report. When something interesting is developing we take note.
AMZN 05/03 BO 30.96 +0.51 30.3 35.45 6M 12M 28.74
Current. Nice breakout last week and now moving up the 10 day MVA.
KLAC 04/02 Test 50 42.49 +1.43 39.4 45.48 7.6M 13M 40.65
Current. Up off the 18 day MVA as KLAC works up the short term
MVA trying to make a breakaway move.
MSFT 01/11 A Wedge 26.35 +0.6 26.62 30 59M 57M 25.55
Nice volume surge Friday as MSFT readies to make a
trading run here.
CONTINUING/WATCHLIST:
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ALTR 04/15 Rv H&S 17.14 +0.56 15.75 18.81 7M 12M 16.02
Current. Still using the 10 day MVA to move up after the late
April breakout.
AMZN 05/03 BO 30.96 +0.51 30.3 35.45 6M 12M 28.74
Current. Nice breakout last week and now moving up the 10 day MVA.
ASCL 05/07 FlyPlat 3.84 +0.01 4.05 4.96 1.4M 1.7M 3.77
Buy Not Hit. Still very nice lateral action in the pattern as it
holds over the 18 day MVA.
BCE 04/05 Cup 20.11 -0.05 19.9 23.75 156K 550K 19.65
Current. Nice test of the strong volume breakout earlier in
the week. Want it to hold the 10 day at 20.
BCGI 04/24 Test BO 17.01 -0.84 18.55 22.26 2.3M 431K 17.55
Current. Gapped down to the 50 day MVA and then managed to rally
back $1, closing at some resistance at 17. As it was
recovering, we let it & will see if it can get back
to 18 early this week.
BLL 03/03 A Wedge 55.99 +0.79 54.22 62 276K 550K 55.74
Current. Held the 50 day MVA on a test and managed to rebound
Friday. If it cannot make any headway Monday we are
going to close it.
BLTI 02/10 Test BO 11.05 +0.21 7.2 9.5 618K 300K 11.25
Current. After gapping lower Thursday, BLTI held teh 18 day
& started up Friday so we will see if it can recover
any more ground before exiting. If volume comes back
in on a move up we will let it move.
BRCM 05/03 Cup hdl 18.85 +0.79 19.15 22.94 7.6M 15M 17.81
Buy Not Issued. Still working nicely in the handle on below average
volume. Just waiting for the breakout.
C 04/18 Rv H&S 39.05 -0.16 40.54 47.55 18M 23M 38.45
Buy Not Issued. Held up well last week as financials struggled some.
Held the 18 day MVA with a doji as volume moved back
above average.
CHIR 05/03 Cup hdl 40.81 +0.71 42.9 51 1.7M 2M 40.25
Current. Bounced up off some support at 40, but needs to get
over 41 early this week.
CLE 04/14 Cup hdl 27.2 +0.71 26.05 30 491K 567K 24.78
Buy Not Issued.
CNQR 04/22 Test 18 6.08 +0.05 6.12 7.42 88K 250K 5.65
Buy Not Issued.
CTL 05/01 Cup hdl 32.18 +0.78 32 38 888K 1.3M 30.55
Current.
CTXS 03/29 Cup hdl 18.74 -0.54 14.12 17.25 7.4M 5.3M 17.94
Current. Testing the strong move, but volume jumped well above
average Friday as it closed under the 10 day. Needs
to hold the 18 day at 18.
DCLK 04/26 Test BO 9.08 +0.33 9.04 11.35 1M 1.9M 8.54
Current. Up off the test of the 10 day MVA with a stronger volume
session.
DKS 03/18 DB hdl 28.79 -0.51 23.81 28.42 713K 225K 28
Current.
DKS 02/19 DB hdl 28.79 -0.51 22.75 27.35 713K 225K 28
Current. Gapped lower, sold, and then rebounded on strong volume.
Good recovery, showing a doji at key support.
DRIV 05/08 Test BO 16.95 -0.2 17.45 20.95 718K 1.4M 16.23
Buy Not Hit.
DSPG 04/26 Test BO 21.74 +1.05 21.1 25.1 267K 300K 20.25
Current. After testing the 18 day MVA DSPG bounced sharply on
solid, rising volume.
DSPG 04/09 Test BO 21.74 +1.05 19.35 23 267K 308K 20.25
Current.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 94.67 +1.4 69.45 92 4.3M 12M 91.22
Current. Up off a test of the 18 day MVA, but not much volume.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 94.67 +1.4 62.45 92 4.3M 12M 91.22
Current.
EFII 03/27 Cup hdl 19.81 +0.04 18.43 22.25 268K 498K 19.15
Current. Two nice dojis on the 10 day MVA as volume started higher.
FDRY 04/29 Cup hdl 11.87 +0.21 10.9 13.15 2.2M 4.4M 10.74
Current. Nice tight doji on the breakout test as volume continued
to fall. Ready for the next leg up.
FFIV 04/23 A Wedge 15.44 +0.81 15.3 18.32 488K 750K 14.05
Current. Nice rising volume move up off the 10 day MVA test.
GRMN 11/06 Cup hdl 45.9 +0.15 22.34 37.45 286K 198K 42.45
Current. Has formed a flying plateau on very low volume after
a nice run. It usually tests back some toward the 10
day MVA & then blasts higher when it forms this pattern.
HAS 04/12 Test BO 16.11 +0.16 14.88 17.88 1.1M 1.2M 15.55
Current. Up off the 18 day MVA test but no volume.
HAS 03/31 Test BO 16.11 +0.16 14.65 17 1.1M 1.2M 15.35
Current.
IART 04/24 FlyPlat 25.99 -0.77 26.25 32 274K 485K 25.45
Has formed a second flying plateau over 26, but may
test down to the 18 day MVA at 25.35 before starting
back up.
IBM 01/11 Cup hdl 87.55 +1.5 87.75 100 6.2M 14M 84.88
Up off the 10 day MVA test and looks to be preparing
for the breakout.
IGEN 01/11 A Wedge 37.58 +0.46 0 0 245K 375K 36
IGLD 04/21 Cup 5.86 +0.78 4.3 6.45 271K 543K 4.75
Current. Strong bounce higher after teh 10 day MVA test. Letting
it run higher as long as it will.
ILXO 04/15 Cup hdl 14 +0.23 11.6 15.32 188K 293K 12.44
Current. Has formed a very nice flying plateau after the breakout.
New positions at 14.26 on more volume.
JNPR 04/15 Flat 12 +0.1 10.6 13.42 12M 17M 10.78
Current. Very nice lateral test on low volume after that great
big breakout. Being stingy with gains after a breakout
is a sign of the strength of the breakout.
KLAC 04/02 Test 50 42.49 +1.43 39.4 45.48 7.6M 13M 40.65
Current. Up off the 18 day MVA as KLAC works up the short term
MVA trying to make a breakaway move.
MDCO 05/10 Test 18 21 +0.9 21.25 25.48 490K 825K 19.76
New.
MME 04/30 BO 45.94 +0.69 45.65 54.45 745K 634K 42.45
Current. Continued the breakout move on conitnued above average
volume.
MSFT 01/11 A Wedge 26.35 +0.6 26.62 30 59M 57M 25.55
Nice voluem surge Friday as MSFT readies to make a
trading run here.
MXIM 04/18 Rv H&S 39.82 +0.77 40.12 45 6.7M 1.2M 38.65
Current. Still holding at the 18 day MVA on lower volume , waiting
for another chip rally.
MYK 03/22 Cup hdl 9.19 +0.14 8.88 10.88 102K 180K 8.26
Current. Still moving laterally over 9 after the strong breakout.
NTES 04/01 Cup 24.56 +0.13 17 27 668K 1M 22.55
Current. Nice lateral move over the 10 day MVA checking up the
Tuesday reversal. Looking for a bounce up on volume
this week.
NVDA 05/08 Cup hdl 21.37 +5.31 17.55 21.25 77M 11M 16.32
Buy Not Issued.
NXTL 02/25 Flat 13.26 -0.02 14.55 17.55 17M 2.5M 14.15
Exited.
OVRL 04/05 Flat 17.52 +0.13 16.75 20.25 77K 140K 16.92
Exited. Got shaken out like a rookie because had a preconceived
notion I would exit. It rallied back to recover the
18 and 10 day MVA on some rising volume. May have to
get right back in.
OVTI 02/24 Cup hdl 28.64 +1.59 19.05 31 834K 1.2M 25.95
Current. A nice move up off the 10 day MVA test. Upped the target,
but with respect to the June options we need to be
ready to take the gain as this run tops off. Currently
bidding $13.50 (+130%).
POSS 04/23 Cup 19.3 -0.2 20.18 24 261K 342K 18.45
Current. Wild session Friday, testing lower below the 18 day
but then recovering to hold the 10 day MVA on rising
volume. Needs to rally from here.
QCOM 04/16 Put 31.11 +0.72 32.56 29 15M 16M 30.28
Recovered some Friday but on lowe volume.
QLGC 03/15 Test BO 46.75 +1.28 38.85 45 4.6M 11M 42.22
Current.
QLGC 11/07 Test BO 46.75 +1.28 41.4 50 4.6M 25M 42.22
QLGC 08/17 CCall 46.75 +1.28 36.48 0 4.6M 12M 42.22
Current. Still moving up though no volume Friday.
RADA 05/05 BO 6.57 -1.43 7.92 9.51 276K 80K 7.37
Exited.
RCII 01/11 Test BO 64.83 -0.01 0 0 194K 0 62.45
Nice test of the 10 day MVA, showing a tight doji on
low volume. Ready to make the next bounce.
RGEN 04/07 Test 18 5.89 +0.51 4.84 7.1 181K 132K 5.45
Current. Gapped down but started to move back up so we let it
recover for a nice move after the deeper test.
RL 04/10 Cup hdl 22.86 -0.04 23.26 27.94 156K 433K 21.63
Buy Not Issued.
SCSS 04/26 Cup hdl 14.51 +1.32 12.22 16 4.6M 696K 12.94
Target Hit. Super blast higher on mega volume. Took some gain and
left the rest to work for us. Moved up the target and
the stop.
SHRP 05/01 Cup hdl 20.5 +0.38 21.45 25.25 215K 293K 19.95
Buy Not Issued. Still working in the handle.
SIGM 05/06 Cup hdl 8.01 +0.11 7.58 9.55 238K 125K 7.05
Buy Not Issued. Going to have to let it test back toward 7.50 and then
enter when it rebounds.
SINA 04/12 Cup hdl 12.36 +0.38 9.35 13.45 1.7M 2.5M 10.88
Current. Updated the taget and the stop, but really just letting
it run. Struggling some here at 12.65, the point it
needs to break.
SOHU 03/20 Dbl btm 18.8 +0.25 10.55 21.45 791K 800K 16.55
Current. Moved up the stop and the target as SOHU moves laterally
on low volume. Looks to be readying for the next move
& it could be explosive after a few more lateral sessions.
SPLS 03/31 Test 50 20.69 +0.14 20.3 23.55 2.9M 5M 19.55
Current. Stilll moving up on the breakout move but losing some
momentum as voume backs off.
SSYS 03/01 Cup hdl 22 -1.5 12.25 15.45 772K 110K 21.88
Target Hit. Fell back to the 18 day MVA on sharply higher volume
and we took some gain on teh move. HOlding the 18
day is good, and if it can bounce here, so much the better.
TEVA 01/11 A Wedge 47.67 +0.63 0 0 1.3M 5M 0
THOR 04/05 Test BO 13.26 +0.45 13.5 16.26 319K 721K 12.74
Current. Held the 18 day MVA adn then rallied. Needs some more
volume.
TNOX 04/12 Test 18 15.2 +0.78 12.96 15.75 226K 271K 14.25
Current. Up off the 18 day MVA on rising volume.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 43.61 0 43.75 52 339K 603K 41.94
Current.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 43.61 0 38.6 44.38 339K 577K 41.94
Current. Hit the target this week, but such a nice pullback
we want to let it make the next strong move up before
taking any gains.
TXN 05/10 Cup hdl 20 +1.13 20.45 24.55 15M 16M 18.96
New.
USAI 03/25 Cup hdl 33.07 +0.29 29.12 33.55 10M 8.3M 32.55
Current. Nice hammer doji over the 10 day MVA. Ready for the
next move higher.
UTHR 04/30 Cup hdl 17.86 +0.26 18.12 21.75 295K 226K 17.48
Current. Recovering from late week selling, rising off the 18
day MVA on stronger, above average volume.
VIVO 05/07 BO 9.33 +0.04 9.38 11.25 46K 45K 8.72
Buy Not Issued. Have not liked the intraday action, gapping higher
and then bleeding back all session. Needs to test toward
9 and then rebound on volume.
VRNT 05/05 Cup hdl 19.76 -1.04 22.92 27.55 257K 245K 21.32
Current. Trying to hold the 18 day MVA. Needs to hold here.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 24.59 +0.64 19.76 20 6.2M 8.5M 22.05
Current. Nice move back up over 24 though not a lot of volume.
This has been a nice recovery.
VSTA 04/28 Cup hdl 20.58 -0.87 19.98 23.85 492K 156K 19.97
Current. Ran into trouble at the end of the week on rising volume.
Trying to hold the 18 day at 20.
VTAL 04/23 Cup hdl 16.15 +0.85 14.25 17.12 237K 150K 14.12
Current. After the lateral move VTAL jumped up on strong volume.
Nice.
WFR 03/29 FlyPlat 13 +0.1 12.4 15.15 277K 200K 12.22
Current. Has formed a smal ascending triangle adn is trying
to mass for the reakout.
WFR 02/22 Flat 13 +0.1 9.35 14 277K 217K 12.22
Current. Moved up the target and the stop as WFR prepares to
break higher.
WMT 02/05 Put 55.8 +0.79 0 0 6.5M 8.2M 0
Tested below the 18 day MVA but then recovered. Nice
test lower last week setting up the next move higher.
XLNX 03/20 Test BO 28.81 +1.11 28.05 34.55 8.5M 14M 26.88
Current. Started back up Friday on some rising though still
below average volume.
XMSR 04/07 Test BO 9.57 -0.73 6.95 8.42 15M 6.5M 8.94
Current. Tougher going toward the end of the week, falling toward
the 18 day MVA Friday. Have moved up the stop to insure
our gain, but wnat to see it hold and rebound again
to get that extra icing back.
YHOO 12/11 Test 50 25.04 -0.04 17.32 25 7.5M 20M 23.94
Current. Still working laterally in a very tight range over
the 18 day MVA. Volume is very low, a good consolidation.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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