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yahoo stock, trade stock
Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information.
Best Plays: KMX broke out today. Several of the big flyers of last week continued to pull back Monday, and some have slipped below major support (50 day MVA, JNPR, VRSN, etc.) or are headed for support on higher volume (BRKS). Stop losses can be of great use in preventing losses below pinpointed solid support levels. For tonight, stocks like EXTR and ADBE are at support on lower volume and ripe to move up in a rally.
Best Plays:
1) SERO: Breaking out.
2) NVLS: Looking for an earnings play.
3) ADBE: A lower-volume pullback to support.
4) EXTR: Ditto.
New Plays:
SERO (Serologicals--$19.00; +1.16; optionable (QEO): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sero.html
STATUS: Breaking out on good volume, from a cup back of 15 weeks. Buy point is 18.23, making the stock a continued buy, technically, on this breakout, though it is almost at our limit of 5%. The stock shows great money flow and strong buying, and relative strength has broken out. A good stock to watch for a test of the breakout, when stocks can post stronger gains. Target: $20-21.
BUY POINT: Up to 19.14 on the breakout. Stop loss: 18.50-18.75.
POSITION: Stock and/or August $15 calls to buy (QEO HC).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/sero.html
Looking at two of the chip stocks that look ready to move up in a rally:
NVLS (Novellus--$51.14; -2.87; optionable (NLQ): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvls.html
STATUS: The stock dropped back again on lower volume (7.6 million; avg. 9 million), headed for support at the 50 level, the pullback coming after NVLS broke out to a high of 53.78 last week on strong volume. The company reported earnings that beat the street by a cent (tonight), and projected the same for the second quarter despite lowering the overall forecast. The stock was up a half point in after hours trading (at the time of this writing); we are looking for a move up on the earnings report, and in a rally we could get a strong move. Use of stop losses can help prevent losses; we are looking for a solid hold at support at the 50 level. Initial target: $60.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: On a move back up from here or the 50 range, on stronger volume. Stop loss: 49-49.25. The stock may gap higher in the morning; look for a test of the opening price (or today's close), looking for entry points on a move back up.
POSITION: Stock and/or June $45 or $50 calls to buy (NLQ FI or FJ). Next month out for options is September.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/nvls.html
A Trading Play on a stock below its 200 day MVA:
BSC (Bear Stearns--$50.34; -0.28; optionable (BSC): Brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bsc.html
STATUS: Pulling back from last week's strong move that tapped near the 200 day MVA (55.10). BSC made quite a run up in the first few weeks of this month, from the April low of 40.65, and if the market rallies back, we are looking for a trade up to the 200 day MVA. We like the lower volume (reaching Monday 738,700; avg. 1 million) and the hold at support above the 50 day MVA (49.96).
BUY POINT: Aggressive: On a move back up from here or 49.96 (50 day MVA) on stronger volume. Stop loss: 49.46-49.71.
POSITION: Aggressive: Stock and/or July $45 calls to buy (BSC GI). Options have a delta of 0.715.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/bsc.html
THE PORTFOLIOS: Each report, we look at these to see which is in a buy position. We don't cover them all each time, just the ones that are looking as if they are ready to pick up a few shares.
THE LEADERS: Some of the new leaders have fallen under the pressure of the bear market and can no longer be considered top picks for such investments (ACS, LLL, NATI, ESRX). We continue to look to stocks like CPN and SGR (and are adding NVDA) as the new leaders, as they are holding up well. With this in mind, we must reiterate that while we are looking for any of these stocks to once again yield long-term investments when the markets turns, for now the plays for moves up in such stocks should be considered largely short-term. We must focus on the stocks that are performing best in a down market as they tend to help lead when the market turns back up.
New Leaders: CPN, SGR, ESRX, NATI, LLL, ACS, NVDA, BRKS
Previous Leaders: ADBE, AMCC, ARBA, BEAS, BRCD, CIEN, EMC, EXTR, GLW, JNPR, NEWP, NTAP, PMCS, SCMR, SEBL, VRSN, VRTS
We have added NVDA and BRKS as a New Leaders:
Previous Leaders:
ADBE (Adobe--$42.98; -2.98; optionable (AEQ): Application Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adbe.html
STATUS: The stock pulled back again as it did Friday, dropping back to test support at the 10 day MVA (on the low of 42.10). Volume continued to fall, reaching 2.9 million (avg. 6.3 million). The buy point on the recent breakout from the cup with handle base is 43.78, so since the stock's already dropped below that, we want to see a hold here at the 10 day MVA, and the lower volume is encouraging for that. So far, the test of the breakout looks good, and we will watch for a move back up and over the breakout high of 48.80. Target over 49: $54-56.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: on a move back up from the 10 day MVA (42) on stronger volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $35 calls to buy (AEQ GG).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/adbe.html
SEBL (Siebel--$41.75; -2.79; optionable (SGW): Application Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sebl.html
STATUS: Pulled back for the second day, gapping lower and dropping from there to a test of the 50 day MVA (40.03) on the low of 40.75. Volume was stronger on the move, which drove the stock back up off the 50 day MVA, suggesting institutions bought at this point. Look for support to hold the stock at the 50 day MVA should a continued pullback ensue. Target on a move over the previous high of 47.80: $53-55.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Up from here on continued rising volume (18 million; avg. 18.1 million). Stop loss: 41.25-41.50.
POSITION: Aggressive: Stock and/or August $35 or $40 calls to buy (SGW HG or HH).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/sebl.html
EXTR (Extreme Netwks--$25.18; -1.65; optionable (EUT): Internet Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/extr.html
STATUS: Back to support on its second pullback day (after hitting a high of 29.94 Friday) on even lower volume (4.2 million; avg. 5.7 million). Showing a doji above support (50 day MVA at 24.28), the stock looks ready for a bounce back up in a market rally. Target on a move back over 30: $33-35.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Up from here on stronger volume. Stop loss: 24.68-24.93.
POSITION: Stock and/or June $25 calls to buy (EUT FE). Next month out on options is September.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/extr.html
JNPR (Juniper Ntwks--$59.43; optionable (SUX): Computer Hardware
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jnpr.html
STATUS: Slipped below the 50 day MVA (62.59) on lower, below average volume (26.8 million; avg. 26.3 million). We are not crazy about the move below the support, but the stock can find another level of support from a March consolidation for a hold at the 58-59 level, tested on the low of 58.70. The 10 day MVA is at 53.94, just above other potential support at 50. Looking for a move back up on strong volume in a rally. Initial target: $75.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: On a move up from 58-59, on rising volume. Stop loss: 58.69-57.14.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $50 or $55 calls to buy (SUX GJ or GK).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/jnpr.html
UP & COMERS PORTFOLIOS: We have added some new stocks to this portfolio: LNCR, BJ, ANF, LOW, HI and THQI. We like the patterns and their earnings numbers, and they are holding up in this market. The currently existing members (EXDS, TQNT, BVSN, SANM, PKI and GMST) are on a watchlist we will continue to monitor for recovery when the market finally emerges from the bear market.
HI (Household Intl--$62.23; -0.22; optionable (HI): Credit Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hi.html
STATUS: Continued to pullback from the April high of 64 on below average volume that Monday dropped to the lowest volume the stock's seen since November (814,600; avg. 2 million). The test of the breakout (from its recent short base) looks good, the low (61.90) testing potential support at that level, and the 10 day MVA is just lower at 61.54. HI is now just above the buy point of 62.13. Target on a move back over 64: $71-74.
BUY POINT: 64.13, on volume of 1.1 million or better. Stop loss: 63.63-63.88.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $55 or $60 calls to buy (HI GK or GL).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/hi.html
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: BRCM, CHKP, CSCO, EMLX, IDTI, INTC, JDSU, MVSN, NT, PWER, SUNW, VTSS
CHKP (Check Point--$72.39; -2.70; optionable (KEQ): Security Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chkp.html
STATUS: Earnings are out before the open Tuesday. Showed a doji on lower volume, on the second day of pulling back from the Thursday high of 80.16. The low tested noted support near 70 (69.25) on the lower volume (12.7 million; avg. 11.8 million). The stock surged on good volume at the end of the day, and was trading slightly higher after hours (at the time of this writing). A good report and continue the momentum. The 50 day MVA is at 66.49, but our stop loss for now is above that. Looking for an aggressive upside play here, with an initial target or $79-80.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: On a move back up from here or the 70 level, on stronger volume. Stop loss: 69.50-69.75.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $70 calls to buy (KEQ GN).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/chkp.html
Good Investing!
Jon Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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